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Topic: Longhorn Football

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Cincydawg

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Re: Longhorn Football
« Reply #1316 on: October 28, 2024, 09:19:33 AM »
It is very possible Texas beats A&M in the last game and plays them again a week later.

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utee94

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Re: Longhorn Football
« Reply #1317 on: October 28, 2024, 09:43:30 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 09:19:33 AM
It is very possible Texas beats A&M in the last game and plays them again a week later.


I think your Dawgs would have to lose another game for that to happen, wouldn't they?  And probably LSU, too. That's possible of course, but I'm not gonna say it's "likely."

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Cincydawg

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Re: Longhorn Football
« Reply #1318 on: October 28, 2024, 10:12:08 AM »
UGA could plausibly lose to Florida, Tennessee, and at Ole Miss.  The chances of one loss in there, at least, is pretty good.

LSU still hosts Alabama and travels to Florida, but they technically would not HAVE to lose another depending on tie breakers, which I don't pretend to understand.

The Dawgs often have problems with mobile QBs which Florida has.

But imagine we end up with four one loss teams, which also is plausible.  The simple thing would be to take the two highest ranked teams, which would be UGA and UT, unless Tennessee is the other one loss team.

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Gigem

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Re: Longhorn Football
« Reply #1319 on: October 28, 2024, 10:29:27 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 09:19:33 AM
It is very possible Texas beats A&M in the last game and plays them again a week later.
Shush.  
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utee94

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Re: Longhorn Football
« Reply #1320 on: October 28, 2024, 10:31:01 AM »
Quote from: Gigem on October 28, 2024, 10:29:27 AM
Shush. 
Nah he can keep talking. :)

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Gigem

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Re: Longhorn Football
« Reply #1321 on: October 28, 2024, 10:44:07 AM »
I would honestly love a world where A&M and Texas were the tops of the SEC.  I'm beyond tired of  hearing about Alabama, Georgia, and the other blue haired blue bloods (UTenn, Ole Miss, and the rest).  I wouldn't even mind Texas winning it, as long as A&M is in there as well.  I will celebrate it with you guys if that happens.  But until then, I dare think it.  
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Cincydawg

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Re: Longhorn Football
« Reply #1322 on: October 28, 2024, 10:53:40 AM »
My GUESS is UGA loses another game and finishes 10-2 and gets an at large.

Dawg fans will be calling for Kirby's head.
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Gigem

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Re: Longhorn Football
« Reply #1323 on: October 28, 2024, 11:02:34 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 10:53:40 AM
My GUESS is UGA loses another game and finishes 10-2 and gets an at large.

Dawg fans will be calling for Kirby's head.
You're just sandbagging now.  
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utee94

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Re: Longhorn Football
« Reply #1324 on: October 28, 2024, 11:10:02 AM »
Quote from: Gigem on October 28, 2024, 11:02:34 AM
You're just sandbagging now. 
Yup.  I don't see Georgia losing to Ole' Miss or Tennessee and definitely not to Florida.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Longhorn Football
« Reply #1325 on: October 28, 2024, 11:19:13 AM »
Let's say the odds of winning those games are:

90% Florida
60% Ole Miss
70% Tennessee ...

... the odds of losing one then would be over 60%.

UGA has looked inconsistent this season, to me, pretty good, then remarkably bad.

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utee94

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Re: Longhorn Football
« Reply #1326 on: October 28, 2024, 11:22:38 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 11:19:13 AM
Let's say the odds of winning those games are:

90% Florida
60% Ole Miss
70% Tennessee ...

... the odds of losing one then would be over 60%.

UGA has looked inconsistent this season, to me, pretty good, then remarkably bad.



I basically have a master's in statistics, I understand how they work.  It's true at the beginning of the season that it's highly unlikely that ANY team will go undefeated.  And yet it still happens "despite the odds."

At this point after seeing all of these teams play, I don't see Georgia losing to anyone remaining on its schedule.  Pretty simple and defensible statement.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Longhorn Football
« Reply #1327 on: October 28, 2024, 11:35:20 AM »
Hopefully they won't, from my view, but I worry about Florida, a lot.  And Ole Miss.  And Tennessee.  It's the Larry Munson in me.

All it takes is some bad turnovers, a tipped pass, a critical penalty, your QB being off a bit that day, the game plan being wrong, etc.
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utee94

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Re: Longhorn Football
« Reply #1328 on: October 28, 2024, 11:36:44 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2024, 11:35:20 AM
Hopefully they won't, from my view, but I worry about Florida, a lot.  And Ole Miss.  And Tennessee.  It's the Larry Munson in me.

All it takes is some bad turnovers, a tipped pass, a critical penalty, your QB being off a bit that day, the game plan being wrong, etc.
Sure.  I mean, Texas shouldn't have lost to Georgia, and yet here we are. ;)
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MikeDeTiger

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Re: Longhorn Football
« Reply #1329 on: October 28, 2024, 11:38:28 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on October 28, 2024, 11:22:38 AM
I basically have a master's in statistics, 

I literally do.  Not that I feel like I've mastered statistics.  

To me, the tricky thing about odds of winning is they are by definition Bayesian, but people tend to think about them from a frequentist perspective.

"If A played B  ten times, A would win seven of them." 

Of course, they don't play ten times, and the compound statistical formula doesn't really apply in real life.  We can justifiably update our prior assumptions and assign new odds as new data presents itself.  I'm not sure, statistically speaking, it's meaningful to say anything about games in frequentist terms.

Which means I basically agree with utee here. 

Which hopefully buys me some time before I get the "The statistics thread is over there --->"
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