. . . This is, IMO, the subjective pecking order of the SEC (over the last 20 or so years):
Alabama-10-12 wins a season 90% of the time.
Georgia-10-12 wins a season 89% of the time.
LSU-9-11 wins a season 90% of the time
Those 3 teams, IMO, are unquestionably at the top of the SEC.
That leaves you with a mix of the middle
Florida-8-10 wins 80% of the time, but any given year they can win the SEC and the MNC
Auburn-8-10 wins a year 77% of the time, but any given year they can win the SEC and play for the MNC
Texas-8-10 wins a year 70% of the time and 20% of the time they can win the SEC and play for the MNC
OU-Same as Texas
I have a soft spot in my heart for Auburn. I spent 15 months in junior high school in Gadsden, Alabama. And all I heard was "Bama this and Bama that," and "Roll Tide," and "Bear Bryant gives orders to God."
In that environment, rooting for a team not named Alabama or Auburn was not allowed. So, contrarian that I sometimes am, I rooted for Auburn.
Notwithstanding that, I don't think Auburn sits above OU and Texas in the pecking order. Not if you're going back 20 years.
And, to get more picky, if the time frame is 20 years, OU might sit a bit higher than Texas. (Horns could see it differently, of course.) From 2005 through 2024, OU had a 12-9 record vs. Texas (w/ a W in the 2018 CCG). OU won 11 Big 12 championships. Texas won 2. Texas won the 2005 NC. OU lost the 2008 BCSCG. Texas has been to 2 CFPs, with a 2-2 record, losing in the NCG last year. OU has been to 2 CFPs, with an 0-2 record.
Tennessee- 7-10 wins 80% of the time, in will compete for SEC title once every 20 years.
This next tier is where most programs in the SEC reside.
Texas A&M 7-9 wins a year 80% of the time, can only compete for the SEC championship once every 20 years.
Mizzou-6-8 wins a year 75% of the time, will compete for the SEC championship once every 25 years (chances were greater with East Division)
Arkansas-about the same as Mizzou
South Carolina-see Ark and Mizzou
Ole Miss...I'd put the spread on them a little differently. 5-9 wins per year 80% of the time. They're just as likely to win 9 games a year as they are to win 5. I don't think they've really ever been in contention for the SEC title for decades, but sometimes they're really good.
Last Tier
Vanderbilt-3-5 wins most years, never in contention for SEC title.
Kentucky...4-7 wins a year most year, never in contention for SEC title.
Mississippi St...-6-7 wins a year most years, never in contention
Obviously I didn't go back and get the exact percentages or anything special, I'm just thinking about them in terms of what I see.
Without researching W/L records, I see Missouri as a notch above Arkansas.
