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Topic: Florida's Downturn

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OrangeAfroMan

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Florida's Downturn
« on: December 24, 2018, 01:13:25 AM »
On the Gator boards, there's been a frank discussion about why Florida hasn't mattered since Tebow left.  Meyer is to blame, Foley is to blame, facilities were to blame, etc etc....and the QB position was to blame.  So I thought I'd take a look back at QB recruits and see what's what, since Tebow left.
2010
3* Tyler Murphy
played a little, transferred to BC and started, UDFA
2011
5* Jeff Driskel
started about 20 games, got hurt, transferred to LA Tech, drafted in 6th round, NFL backup
4* Jacoby Brissett
played very little, transferred to NC State, started 2 successful years, drafted in 3rd round, NFL bakcup
2012
3* Skyler Mornhinweg
played a little, transferred to Columbia, stunk, no pro football
2013
3* Max Staver
never played, transferred to 3 places, ended up sucking at Maine, no pro football
2014
4* Will Grier
Started and played well for half a season, suspended for PEDs, transferred to WV, nearly a Heisman finalist
4* Treon Harris
Started off-and-on, scrambled around a lot, not much of a thrower...wound up transferring to Tenneseee State and moving to WR
2015
NO QB signed!
2016
4* Feleipe Franks
started the past 2 years, being a weakness last year and improved this year, under new coaching
3* Kyle Trask
didn't start for his HS team, hasn't been able to beat out Franks for playing time, got hurt this year
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Honestly, you can throw out the ineffectiveness...I challenge you to find any situation at any school in any time frame in which EVERY QB recruit a school signed for a five-year period (including 7 players, total) ALL transferred from that school.
It sounds made up...impossible...doesn't it?  




I think it's clear that with all the other things to warrant blame, this ludicrous fact that EVERY QB left Florida from 2010-2014 AND no QB was recruited in 2015.  It defies rational thought.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Florida's Downturn
« Reply #1 on: December 24, 2018, 01:15:58 AM »
Even Saban couldn't win if you told him all the QBs he signs in the next 5 years all had to transfer away, whether they were good, stunk, or didn't even play.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Gigem

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Re: Florida's Downturn
« Reply #2 on: December 25, 2018, 01:47:41 PM »
Try having two 5* QB’s transfer within days of each other.  One of whom is the current Heisman winner and CFP looming, the other is a backup in the nfl. 

rolltidefan

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Re: Florida's Downturn
« Reply #3 on: December 27, 2018, 10:20:31 AM »
Even Saban couldn't win if you told him all the QBs he signs in the next 5 years all had to transfer away, whether they were good, stunk, or didn't even play.  
not that what you posted isn't bad, but hurts was supposed to be the first qb since mccarron (09 class) to finish at bama. and hurts is likely to be a grad transfer.
one small caveat to that though, blake sims never transfered, but he wasn't recruited to be a qb, he just ended up being one because we were lacking in qb dept at the time. ended up being pretty good one too. but he was recruited as a rb/wr/db and played/practiced there for 3 years before moving to qb as aj backup in 13 and starter in 14 (coker transferred in 14 but didn't win starter spot until 15)
bama qb's 2010-current
2010 - phillip simms (4* transferred out), blake sims (4* ath recruit, ended up qb)
2011 - philip ely (4* transferred), matt sandlin (0* no clue, but never played, had to have been a walk-on but was listed in 247 so i listed here)
2012 - alec morris (3* transfer)
2013 - cooper bateman (4* transfer), parker mcleod (3* transfer)
2014 - david cornwell (4* transfer)
2015 - blake barnett (5* transfer)
2016 - hurts (4* still on team, likely grad transfer)
2017 - tua (5* starter), mac jones (4* still on team, no rumors to transfer that i am aware)

Cincydawg

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Re: Florida's Downturn
« Reply #4 on: December 28, 2018, 11:24:30 AM »
LSU seems similar to me.

We all know that in CFB the QB spot if THE key to a decent season.  A completely loaded team otherwise can do well with a so-so QB who can play in the System, but that's rare.  Alabama is at a different level with Tua-v-Hurts.

I think Millen will correct this soon enough though.  He's got them to 9-3 already, which is better than so-so.  

I'm not sure how fast Tennessee can recover, but I suspect it will be much slower than for the Gators, IF they recover.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Florida's Downturn
« Reply #5 on: January 06, 2019, 04:01:54 PM »
Florida beat the top 2 defenses in college football this year - Miss State and Michigan.  With how much shit gets piled onto Feliepe Franks, that's pretty impressive.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: Florida's Downturn
« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2019, 10:13:24 AM »
I'd still say their downturn is mostly QB play (duh).  Perhaps the OL has contributed.  I don't recall their having much of an RB either.

Cincydawg

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Re: Florida's Downturn
« Reply #7 on: January 24, 2019, 10:59:41 AM »
The salient question is whether Florida is back, or nearly back.  They obviously had a pretty solid season, more than most expected, so does that mean Mullen is that good of a coach, or will they take a step back?  They clearly are closer than the other East power (Tenn) by a fair bit.  Do they still own part of UGA's minds out there?  Maybe.

A 10 win season is nothing to sneer at especially with a solid bowl win.  UGA was 11-3, barely better in effect.  

2019 should be interesting.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Florida's Downturn
« Reply #8 on: January 24, 2019, 08:29:32 PM »
I think Florida will finish lower than their preseason ranking in 2019.  The skill guys come back, but the OL is gutted and the Gators aren't good enough for that to not matter.  At the moment, Florida is only good enough to have a special season if everyone came back.
But with a new OL and so many early NFL exits on defense, it'll take a step back before taking another step up in 2020.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: Florida's Downturn
« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2019, 09:16:48 AM »
Yeah, OL obviously is a key often over looked by folks.

So is DL.  I presume they will be solid on D.

Who do they play OOC?  Miami?  FSU might be competitive, maybe.

Nashville4UGA

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Re: Florida's Downturn
« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2019, 03:35:40 PM »
Florida's 2018 season was eerily similar to UGA in 2015.  10-3, 3rd in the East, won some games, won a bunch of games vs teams with losing records.
The LSU win was nice. the losses to UGA, KY and Mizzou had to put a damper on the season.
The Michigan win was nice in the bowl game, but if i were a UF fan, Michigan missing i believe it was 8 starters or key contributors would not be as sweet as it would have been if they were fully staffed as it were. 


Cincydawg

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Re: Florida's Downturn
« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2019, 04:38:19 PM »
The Michigan game was an NY6 game.  It's a pretty nice win over a name brand team no matter the side issues.

Now, they could take a step back in 2019 of course and finish say 9-4 or 8-5, or they might do the reverse and Mullen could start posing for a statue (not really).  If they finish 9-4, I think that would be evidence they are a serious program again and likely to build further into the future as recruiting would perk up.


OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Florida's Downturn
« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2019, 10:36:41 PM »
Yeah, we have Miami in Orlando and FSU at the end.  We should be favored in both.  
I expect UK to fall back down a bit, losing Allen on D and Snell on O.  Hopefully they peaked.
We get Auburn at home, but the only 2 games we won't be favored (as of now) are @LSU and vs UGA.  



That being said, yeah, if Florida goes something like 9-3 again, given the OL and defensive departures, it would signify to me that it would be the worst season Mullen should have going forward for awhile.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: Florida's Downturn
« Reply #13 on: January 26, 2019, 08:51:54 AM »
Of course, 9-3 as an "average" is pretty good, even for a top level program other than the 2-3-4 elite level programs.

Florida could be that step away from joining the elite where 10-2 is considered a bad year.  We'll see.  I'd expect a solid year recordwise next season.  They could realistically be an upset of UGA away from the CG.

Tennessee is more interesting, to me, as they have further to go to "get back" and have been down a good bit longer.  We see high level programs take a dive and I find it interesting to see how, and whether, they climb back.  FSU, Texas, Tenn, USC - all upper level programs that have been rather far down, with Texas of course showing solid signs of getting back.

Could add Miami to that list I suppose.  


Cincydawg

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Re: Florida's Downturn
« Reply #14 on: January 26, 2019, 07:39:15 PM »
So, like every team out there, there are three options for Florida:

1.  Take a step back in 2019 to say 8-5.  I don't think the floor is much lower than that if any.  Not a good year, but so-so, and that record would indicate "everything went wrong" in terms of injuries and close losses.
2.  Maintain, and finish 10-3 or 9-4, which is fairly likely, and would be evidence that the upswing is not ephemeral.
3.  Break through, and win the East and finish 12-2 or perhaps 11-3.  That extra win is HUGE in  terms of perception.  This is probably more likely than option 1, given their schedule.

I still think the Vols are more interesting because of their fan base.  One would think they HAVE to make a bowl game in 2019, no?  Any "step back" from 5-7 would be horrendous.  Even maintaining would be bad and lead to questions.  A modest step forward to say 7-6 would not be that good either, so their "floor" would seem to be more like 8-5, or better.  Can they get to 8-5?  Interesting.

 

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