2019 NFL Draft

[FearlessF]

it's dumb as hell, but it happens

[Cincydawg]

I can see giving a highly paid draftee more of a chance, but not really playing him for years, or even two years, if he's not as good as an alternative.  Maybe I am naive.

Is Stafford an example of this?  Or is he a pretty decent QB on a pretty mediocre team?

[Mdot21]

Former Steelers RB Josh Harris claims that Ben Rapelisberger intentionally fumbled the football in the waning moments of a football game in 2014 vs the Bengals.

The RB is claiming that the Steelers were up by 10 points with a minute and a half left in the game, and OC Todd Haley called a run play. The RB claims that Ben rolled his eyes when he heard the call and was furious in the huddle that Haley called a run play and not a QB kneel.

Looking at the video, sure looks like Ben sabotaged the play call to me. It wasn’t a secret he hated Todd Haley. The guy was a 12 year vet at that point in time- how does he make the mistake to hit a FB in the arm with the football when the play is called for the RB to get the ball? Especially in that moment late in a game where a turnover there would kill you. You’d expect that mistake from a rookie or from a shit eating QB like Mark Sanchez. Ben? He was a 12 year vet and a Pro Bowl caliber player and future Hall of Fame lock.


https://youtu.be/5au5Lx2ZQzU

Again: Ben Rapelisberger = most despicable, biggest douchebag piece of shit in the history of the NFL.

[Mdot21]

Professional teams play a substandard player because they pay him a lot when they have an alternative available who is better?

Hmmmmmmm,

Yup. Happens all the time. 
GMs don’t want to admit they were wrong and when they invest a high 1st round pick and lot of money in a player they give that player multiple opportunities to fail.

[Cincydawg]

Do you think you could do a pretty good job with draft talent eval and reccos if that were your primary job?

Would you want that job?

[MrNubbz]

Hellz ya

[MaximumSam]

Yup. Happens all the time.
GMs don’t want to admit they were wrong and when they invest a high 1st round pick and lot of money in a player they give that player multiple opportunities to fail.

When we talk about recruiting and drafting, that is something that  I think about, but no real solution.  We know guys don't get as much opportunity based on those factors, but it can be hard to measure that into something quantifiable.  A great example is JJ Watt, who was very lightly recruited and passed over initially by Wisconsin, so he played for Central Michigan.  Butch Jones wanted him to be an offensive tackle.  Instead, he left to walk on at Wisconsin, found time on the scout team at defensive end, and here we are.  What if he played good soldier and never left CMU?  Probably no one would have ever heard of him.

[Mdot21]

Do you think you could do a pretty good job with draft talent eval and reccos if that were your primary job?

Would you want that job?

I’d love that job and hell ya I think I could do it better than 90% of GMs.
I’d pick best player available period and not for need, and I’d never reach for a player or make stupid trades to move up for a mediocre QB like Bears did to grab Tribusky. I’d also trade down every single time if there wasn’t a player at my pick that I thought was worth it. 
NFL GMs over think this stuff and they take way too many risks on players with serious flaws that they think their coaches can just fix. 

[FearlessF]

Do you think you could do a pretty good job with draft talent eval and reccos if that were your primary job?

Would you want that job?

I'd like a shot at that job and the salary
not certain that I'd be any better than the guys doing it now, but I think I could eliminate should glaring errors such as Mdot pointed out.

[Cincydawg]

I enjoyed the movie "Draft Day" with Costner more than I thought I would.  Watched it on a flight to Paris.

[OrangeAfroMan]

Professional teams play a substandard player because they pay him a lot when they have an alternative available who is better?

Hmmmmmmm,

Uhh, yeah, all the time, and in every sport.

[OrangeAfroMan]

Do you think you could do a pretty good job with draft talent eval and reccos if that were your primary job?

Would you want that job?

Depends on the owner.  I wouldn't work for Jerry Jones if another job was available.  Not that I dislike him or anything, but if I'm the GM, then I need to be the GM.  Meddling owners can capsize a franchise faster than any bad pick or trade can.
A top draft pick will be given every opportunity to succeed or fail.  In fact, you give him enough playing time so that he proves he's a failure, because the last thing you want is to give up on a guy too early, have him switch teams, and then kick butt wearing someone else's colors.
That's all the draft really is, round by round, a list of new players in order of how much opportunity each will be given.  The 5th round guy may do nothing wrong and still get cut, while big-time #1 will get the chance to fail over and over and still be valued.

[Cincydawg]

If you invest 50X more in a player, he merits second and third chances, especially if you are not playoff bound.  That 5th rounder is probably no loss anyway if he didn't show some upside.  My own notion would be to get top players in the lines and find "skill players" who would look good behind great lines.

I don't know how much difference there is between the top RB in the league and the 32nd best RB, especially if the latter is platooned and fresh.  He is the 32nd best RB in the country, same with QB.  They should still be elite.  "We" always hear about the Bradys of the world, but maybe the Big Uglies make Brady Brady.

[OrangeAfroMan]

One glaring inefficiency in the NFL talent evaluation process is the same thing specified in "Moneyball" - NFL GMs want guys who look good in jeans.  They want the 6'4" guy over the 6'1" guy every time.  They want the 4.4 guy over the 4.6 guy EVERY time.  

I bet I could draft a team of free-agents that were unsexy and beat an NFL GM's talented, potential-laden team he takes from free agency.  
Jerry Rice ran a 4.71.  3rd WR taken behind Eddie Brown.
Emmitt Smith ran a 4.6.  2nd RB taken behind Blair Thomas (4.4).  

These are obviously special cases, but there's so much more to being a great WR than how fast you run 40 yards.  We say we all know that, GMs say they know that, and yet when a guy runs an especially fast 40, to this day, he "moves up the big board" and gets on some team's radar, suddenly.


At least speed is a functional skill.  Size isn't, necessarily.  The case of Aaron Donald is interesting.  Everyone was down on him because he was short.  Ignore his utter dominance at Pitt.  People were crapping on him left and right...and then he ran the fastest 40 for a DT ever.  Ohhh, now he's sexy again!   

It's nearly just nonsense, the whole thing.  To miss so often, to be wrong with such enthusiasm, the draft and its coverage and what GMs value seems little more like mental masturbation.