2019 Michigan Season Thread

[MaximumSam]

Of course it's OK to blindly guess that's the case. I do prefer that we emphasize that no one associated with Alabama has said anything to strengthen that idea yet. Especially this new info from someone assoc'd with Bama (Gattis) that, whether Saban wanted to promote him or not, Nick was in the dark until after everything was over.

It's not a blind guess.  It is almost certainly what happened.  There are no facts which suggest Gattis was ever considered to be the offensive coordinator at Alabama.  I just haven't really puzzled out why that's the case.

[MaximumSam]

Not to get too Bayesian, but: A weird theory with direct support is equal or better than a normal theory without any.

Gattis keeping Saban completely in the dark is definitely weird, but - apparently - true anyway. Maybe he just didn't want to be on Saban's staff anymore.

Anything is possible, but we do have direct support that he wasn't considered the Alabama OC, and that is that he's not the Alabama OC and there is no evidence suggesting he had that option.  I mean, under your logic you and I were possible options for Alabama OC and we just didn't want it, either.

[Anonymous Coward]

It's not a blind guess.  It is almost certainly what happened.  There are no facts which suggest Gattis was ever considered to be the offensive coordinator at Alabama.  I just haven't really puzzled out why that's the case.

It doesn't take any real puzzling to build plausible scenarios thay begin with the only insider take we have:

Saban wouldn't have been incentivized to promote his WR coach unless he knew Gattis was leaving. And (despite the rumor mill), from Gattis's telling, Saban clearly didn't know that until after Gattis was gone.

[Anonymous Coward]

he's not the Alabama OC and there is no evidence suggesting he had that option.

There's equal evidence (none) that Gattis would and would not have been offered the OC position if he hadn't done the unusual thing of keeping Saban completely in the dark until being his OC was irrelevant.

I mean, under your logic you and I were possible options for Alabama OC and we just didn't want it, either.

Haha, I can't believe you want me to type this: You and I were never talented enough to get a co-OC job from Saban last year and he never expressed anger and disappointment that we took a job without his knowing that was happening.

[Anonymous Coward]

Btw, I've never rejected the possibility that Saban would not have offered Gattis the OC spot this year. I only rejected your insistence that Saban *definitely* let Gattis go without that option. Because Gattis was gone before Saban knew whether or not to give that offer.

[MaximumSam]

It doesn't take any real puzzling to build plausible scenarios thay begin with the only insider take we have:

Saban wouldn't have been incentivized to promote his WR coach unless he knew Gattis was leaving. And (despite the rumor mill), from Gattis's telling, Saban clearly didn't know that until after Gattis was gone.

We certainly don't know that Saban was surprised.  It was reported before this meeting that Gattis was going to Maryland, Harbaugh said he heard through the grapevine that he was leaving, and somehow Nick Saban is in the dark?  Seems very unlikely.  Then they had a 20 minute conversation and that was Saban's pitch to keep him?  
Again, he wasn't offered the job, it doesn't appear likely that Saban wanted to offer him the job, and that is what the evidence very strongly suggests.  I find it weird - both Maryland and Michigan clearly thought he was ready for the job; I'm trying to figure out why Saban wouldn't think that.  In any event, it should be interesting to see how this plays out for Michigan.  I don't think Harbaugh ever coached with him.  Watching this play out might make for some good drama.

[847badgerfan]

Drama? In Ann Arbor?? Nah.

[FearlessF]

Drama or not, you're stuck with Gattis

[Anonymous Coward]

We certainly don't know that Saban was surprised.  It was reported before this meeting that Gattis was going to Maryland, Harbaugh said he heard through the grapevine that he was leaving, and somehow Nick Saban is in the dark?  Seems very unlikely.  Then they had a 20 minute conversation and that was Saban's pitch to keep him?  

According to Gattis, who would know, yes, that's when Saban got mad and tried to keep him on staff.

It doesn't appear likely that Saban wanted to offer him the job.

If you changed your wording here on purpose, then we no longer have a disagreement. 
Again, I was only ever rejecting the extent you were going to insist Saban absolutely wouldn't offer a pure OC job to his co-OC. If you step back from definitely to "likely," then we're good. 
The idea that Saban would never want Gattis as OC next year has a chance but it was wrong to conclude it past "maybe." Because we know Saban tried to keep Gattis, who was gone before Saban knew whether or not to give an OC offer. And that takes oomf out of "but he wasn't publicly offered the OC job before leaving Tuscaloosa."

[MaximumSam]

According to Gattis, who would know, yes, that's when Saban got mad and tried to keep him on staff.If you changed your wording here on purpose, then we no longer have a disagreement.
Again, I was only ever rejecting the extent you were going to insist Saban absolutely wouldn't offer a pure OC job to his co-OC. If you step back from definitely to "likely," then we're good.
The idea that Saban would never want Gattis as OC next year has a chance but it was wrong to conclude it past "maybe." Because we know Saban tried to keep Gattis, who was gone before Saban knew whether or not to give an OC offer. And that takes oomf out of "but he wasn't publicly offered the OC job before leaving Tuscaloosa."

Well, there are tried and true methods for trying to keep someone, and they involve money and promotions, and it doesn't appear Saban offered either.  Instead, he offered 20 minutes of tongue lashing.  Draw conclusions on that as you will.

[HailHailMSP]

The facts-

* Gattis is a proven commodity in recruiting and player development

* Gattis has little to no experience with developing an offensive unit's identity and play-calling

Offensive coordinators are judged heavily on the latter. I think it's a risk worth taking. The bar for Michigan is low. When they have had offensive success, the last couple years it has been in spite of play-calling and strategy. It's largely to due with the talent they line up with being better than what's across from them. Gattis has spent time with Locksley and Moorehead, and appears to share a similar philosophy. 

[Anonymous Coward]

Well, there are tried and true methods for trying to keep someone, and they involve money and promotions, and it doesn't appear Saban offered either.  Instead, he offered 20 minutes of tongue lashing.  Draw conclusions on that as you will.

We're going round and round and don't have to so long as that word choice was deliberate (when you changed from "definitely" to "likely"). But to repeat in case it wasn't deliberate: 
Saban wasn't incentivized to offer his co-OC a pure OC promotion until after he knew Gattis may leave. That's how building coaching staffs goes. You want the best combo, and you do that by keeping as many overqualified guys as you can *if* you can. But Saban couldn't do that. Because he apparently didn't hear from Gattis until after his departure was official.

[Anonymous Coward]

The facts-

* Gattis is a proven commodity in recruiting and player development

* Gattis has little to no experience with developing an offensive unit's identity and play-calling

Offensive coordinators are judged heavily on the latter. I think it's a risk worth taking. The bar for Michigan is low. When they have had offensive success, the last couple years it has been in spite of play-calling and strategy. It's largely to due with the talent they line up with being better than what's across from them. Gattis has spent time with Locksley and Moorehead, and appears to share a similar philosophy.

Harbaugh's best Off Playcalling years were 2015 and 2016, with the creative screens, traps and FB dives. They moved away from those things. I'm sure part of that was that defenses were catching on. That kind of arms race is normal. But then we transitioned into an O that moreso fits the Bo/Harbaugh aesthetic. The main problem with that - basically the forfeiture of unpredictability - is that Michigan isn't a fully formed offense and "biggest kid on the block" right now. So they need an offense that can consistently punch above its weight class. They had that in 2015/16. And then they gave it up.
Harbaugh saying it himself that he's handing over the keys is probably the most important step to getting that back. Of course the guy who gets them matters. And this one has been a key part of two of CFBs best offenses in recent years (PSU and Bama) and on the latter, though it was probably somewhat of a fluff title, he was technically the co-OC. I'm sure he absorbed a lot of that goodness. But no matter what, he's a wizz with WRs and recruits.
So while we don't know much of the ceiling, the basement on this hire is rather high.

[Mdot21]

Gattis was a great hire and anyone saying otherwise is just talking bs.

I'd much rather have someone like Gattis get full control of the offense and call the plays vs. the weird, clunky, Pep/Harbaugh collab that has failed miserably the last 2 seasons.

Pep was fired from his last two NFL jobs. Yet Harbaugh thought it was a great move to hire him and pay him $1.2 million a year.

Saban wanted to keep Gattis. He tried to keep him. That's a fact. Even the Bama insiders have said as much. Problem is- he wasn't willing to hand over full control of the offense and pay Gattis $1.5 million a year like Harbaugh was. Gattis would've made $525,000 at Alabama this year. He's making a million dollars more this year by taking the Michigan job. Saban wasn't offering full control, he'd have to have share it with Enos and they weren't offering to up his contract by $1 million.

I give Harbaugh a lot of credit for having the balls to go outbid Saban & Maryland and take a chance on a young, up and comer. Honestly didn't think he had it in him. Just thought he'd try more of the same old bullshit with Pep & him working on their clumsy, stupid, "body blow", 10 TE set offenses.

Really didn't think Harbaugh had this in him. Might be the thing that saves his ass in the long run if it works out.