Major Applewhite out at U of H ?

[Mr Tulip]

The competitive fortunes of the Big 12 ebb and flow just like any other league. Having Nebraska and (to a MUCH lesser extent) Mizzou around kind of insulated it from proximity problems. However, without moving Texas to the east coast, it's about as stable as any league could hope for. "Without Texas and OU" is a big statement, because the Big 12 is uniquely qualified to host Texas' status as (monetarily) one of the most powerful athletic departments out there. Simply having that kind of clout in the league makes it inherently stable.

Of course, the Big 12 isn't immune to the disease all leagues have contracted - TV money. We're all no longer based off competitive interest, but rather how much revenue we command from broadcasters. When the money flowed freely, it was easy living. When the money got tighter, it made sense as an investment. There's every reason to believe that world won't last much longer.

What happens when the corporations responsible for these broadcasters (most with huge financial interests outside of sports broadcasting) decide it simply isn't worth defending market share in college athletics? Texas loves its money, but could survive with 20% less revenue from TV. They're extremely fortunate in that regard, and extremely rare. Almost every athletic department out there is leveraged to its bottom dollar, and is depending on TV football to make the next payment. I'm wondering what happens when TV quits growing the pie?

Either on purpose or by accident, the Big 12 is fortunate not to have tied itself to a conference network nor expanded needlessly. It's currently as healthy as college football is in general.

[utee94]

Right.

The B12 generates more revenue per school than the ACC or PAC, and that's not even counting the 3rd tier rights which are included in ACC and PAC distributions, but not in B12 distributions.

So if money isn't the driver, then what WOULD be the compelling reason for Texas or OU to want to leave the B12?

[Gigem]

Right.

The B12 generates more revenue per school than the ACC or PAC, and that's not even counting the 3rd tier rights which are included in ACC and PAC distributions, but not in B12 distributions.

So if money isn't the driver, then what WOULD be the compelling reason for Texas or OU to want to leave the B12?

Why did Texas try to leave the first time?  
We can argue about why A&M did leave but what was the driver for Texas to leave? 

[utee94]

Why did Texas try to leave the first time?  
We can argue about why A&M did leave but what was the driver for Texas to leave?

When did Texas try to leave?
Are you referring to when Nebraska bailed on the conference, and everyone was scrambling to see if they needed to go somewhere else?
When everyone knew the Huskers were leaving (which was many months before they announced it), there was a ton of instability.  All of the various B12 schools were desperately trying to figure out where to go, given the expectation that the diminished B12 sans Nebraska might not carry the same financial weight it had previously.  That's when UT (and A&M and OU and 3 other B12 schools) entered serious talks with the PAC.
But then when A&M decided they didn't really want the PAC, and the B12 media partners came in with guarantees tot the B12 that the television money would not decrease and would remain competitive with the other major conferences, Texas was able to stand pat with its preferred option, sitting tight in the B12.

[CharleyHorse46]

Why did Texas try to leave the first time?  
We can argue about why A&M did leave but what was the driver for Texas to leave?

We weren't part of the decision-making process, so we don't know.   In other words we have no facts.  Just speculation.  And maybe some quotes from the time - if you can believe them.  All we can do is conjecture.
I think hubris had a lot to do with it.
The president of UT as the time, William Powers, was a Berkeley guy.  I think he imagined it would enhance UT's academic reputation if it could rub elbows with Stanford and Cal instead of some of the Big 12 schools with less prestigious reputations.
Meanwhile, DeLoss Dodds was full of himself.  He was making the most outrageous comments.  Saying things like "we are the Jones" and "we didn't start realignment but we'll end it."
I mean, my goodness.  Even if you honestly think such things, you shouldn't say them aloud.   But he did and I think that sheds light into where he thought he was in relation to everybody else.
Dodds was going to parlay the Texas brand into a bigger payout.  As it turns out, the LHN was an even sweeter deal for Texas than anything the Pac-12 offered.
I'd like to think the new guys at Texas - Fenves and Del Conte - are nicer guys and better team players.  Maybe they are.  Maybe they're not.   Who knows?
As a fan, I was thoroughly intrigued by the notion of an Arizona, Arizona St, Texas, Oklahoma, Tech, oSu, Colorado, and somebody else division with cross-divisional games with Washington, WSU, Oregon, Oregon St, Cal, Stanford, USC and UCLA.
But in hindsight, so many games on Pacific time would probably get old real fast.   That's kind of the main appeal of the B1G.  They're in our timezone.

[CharleyHorse46]

When did Texas try to leave?
Are you referring to when Nebraska bailed on the conference, and everyone was scrambling to see if they needed to go somewhere else?
When everyone knew the Huskers were leaving (which was many months before they announced it)...

If I remember correctly, Missouri openly begged the B1G for a spot but Nebraska did not entertain the notion of moving to the B1G until it caught wind (thank you, Chip Brown) of the Pac-12's power play.
I'm not defending Nebraska or throwing Texas under the bus.  I just seem to remember everything playing out within about 10 days in June of 2010 (or some year like that).
Clearly Nebraska and the B1G could not have moved so quickly unless there had been earlier interest and vetting, but I can't recall it being public info.   Maybe you were more attune to the murmurs than I was, Junior.   Wouldn't surprise me.   You know a guy.

[utee94]

If I remember correctly, Missouri openly begged the B1G for a spot but Nebraska did not entertain the notion of moving to the B1G until it caught wind (thank you, Chip Brown) of the Pac-12's power play.
I'm not defending Nebraska or throwing Texas under the bus.  I just seem to remember everything playing out within about 10 days in June of 2010 (or some year like that).
Clearly Nebraska and the B1G could not have moved so quickly unless there had been earlier interest and vetting, but I can't recall it being public info.   Maybe you were more attune to the murmurs than I was, Junior.   Wouldn't surprise me.   You know a guy.

Yeah, I definitely know a guy.  And his sources back then were a lot more clued-in than they are now.

Missouri was certainly the first to throw its hat in the pot.  But when the B1G realized Nebraska was interested, they wanted the Huskers far more than Missouri.
Nebraska "announced" it was going to the B1G around the same time as the "PAC 16" story broke, but that was well after it was decided.  Just think about the sheer number of  "yes" votes required for Nebraska to make such a move?  AD, school president, university Board of Directors, and even the Nebraska state legislature, all had to know and in some form sign off on the change.  Then of course the B1G itself had to gain approval from its member schools, although I think at the time they'd given the B1G conference commissioner pretty comprehensive abilities to make that decision and negotiate on their behalf.  Still, after all of that, the lawyers from both parties, still needed to completely vet it, before any announcement could possibly be made.

It was widely known months ahead of time that Nebraska was bolting, at least among the circles of university presidents and athletic directors that would need to make decisions for their own universities' well being.

[utee94]

Anyway, all that aside, Texas under DeLoss Dodds was certainly guilty of extreme hubris.  I won't allow Texas to take all of the blame for the inequality in the original B12, since both Texas A&M and Nebraska voted alongside Texas for unequal revenue sharing every single time it ever came up for a vote.  But Texas at the very least partly responsible for the animosity among conference mates.

I, too, hope that Fenves and del Conte show better leadership and more holistic, comprehensive forward-thinking.

[Mr Tulip]

I believe the Big 12's ability to individually monetize 3rd tier rights should add a measure of resiliency not found in other conferences.

Every conference gets a decent cut of the top layer - the Tier 1 rights. Those are the CBS, ABC, and Foxes that want first pick. They pay big to get in line first (and second sometimes) and select the best games that week across all sports for their viewers. The next pickers are the Tier 2 guys. That's when ESPNU and Fox Sports Southwest come calling for their early or off time games. They don't pay as much for that right as do the Tier 1 contracts, but they're still hefty. Every conference gets these. Leagues that reach big audiences get slightly more (see the "unless Texas moves to the East Coast" comment earlier).

Where the Big 12 differs is with the Tier 3 rights. Those are the "not picked up" games. After TV fills out its schedule, these are the games not claimed by anyone. In every other conference, those rights fall to the conference itself and  typically go nowhere. In the Big 12, those rights stay with the individual universities themselves. Texas famously sold that cluster to ESPN for use on the "Longhorn Network".

ESPN is contracted to the LHN for a while. After that contract runs out, who knows its fate, but that's largely irrelevant. The fact is, any school can sell those rights to anyone. It's obviously gonna be rare for a school to have the reach of Texas and draw interest from a national cable level broadcaster, but that's likely not a future proof concept anyhow.

Personally, I'd investigate Amazon Video or (why not) Netflix. Create, say, the Baylor Sports Channel. The school has an Broadcast Journalism school and a CS school. If nothing else, they should be able to get together and student manage a programming schedule. Sell it for $4.99/mo to the faithful.

[utee94]

Yeah, I don't know if the B12 is better off with this model, but it's certainly poised to be more flexible if/when the subscriber model gets completely killed off.

[longhorn320]

Expansion depends on the permission of the networks else the same size pie gets cut into smaller pieces

When the networks like the idea of Big12 expansion is the day it will happen

[utee94]

Expansion depends on the permission of the networks else the same size pie gets cut into smaller pieces

When the networks like the idea of Big12 expansion is the day it will happen

And that was the main issue with admitting UH to the B12.  The network media partners didn't consider it to be a net gain of any kind, so it was a non-starter from the beginning.  It's not personal toward Houston, the networks didn't consider ANY of the applicants to be sufficient to increase the size of the pie.
At this point, there's nothing to be gained from adding any teams at all, so why would the B12 do something not in its best interest?
The only schools that would move the needle, are highly unlikely to leave their current conferences.  And so we're frozen right here where we are.

[BrownCounty]

I also hear OU & Texas will go to the B1G in 2025.

I really don't want to be the B1G's West Virginia.

[FearlessF]

better than being the B1G's Rutgers