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Topic: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?

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CousinFreddie

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #60 on: January 15, 2019, 02:52:16 PM »
For some related reasons, I don't see Oklahoma leaving the XII any time soon either.  Of course, I'm just some fan over here on the east coast and have no idea what the OU brass are thinking, but this is just how it occurs to me.  The Sooners continue to have competitive matchups with several XII rivals, and they are either old Big 8 rivals or newer SWC rivals (that were always kind of in the background, e.g. all those games with TCU prior to the Frogs joining the XII).  So, that's nice; it's always good to keep those rivalries alive.  But ... what's really important is how well OU has done lately overall.

I mean, let's face it, OU has won four straight conference titles in the XII and been in the playoffs now 3 times out of 5 years that CFP has been going.  It'd be nice to see them actually win one of these playoff games of course, but at least they've played them competitively (if one overlooks the 2nd half vs Clemson 3 years ago, and the 1st quarter vs Bama this time).  Last year was probably the biggest miss.  We had Baker and were every bit as good as any of the other playoff teams - but just didn't win the UGa OT, durn it all.

The salient point is - would OU fare better than this in a different conference?  Highly doubtful.  I think that's the main metric.  I don't really think keeping rivalries with OSU or Texas are the main concern any more.  It would be a shame to lose either, but I think if Oklahoma saw a better option in another conference, I believe they would go, either with or without Texas or OSU.  It's just that at the moment, there are no better options, and in fact most options look worse. 

utee94

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #61 on: January 15, 2019, 03:22:00 PM »
The assumption was always, that the B12's financial distributions would lag, and therefore Texas and OU would want to leave.  In reality that hasn't played out.  The B12 financial distributions actually lead both the PAC and the ACC.  They lag behind the B1G and SEC, but as the cable subscriber model erodes and diminishes, that gap will narrow.  And even if it doesn't narrow significantly from where it is today, the switching costs and increased costs of logistics involved in going to ANY other conference, will always make it difficult for Texas to leave, and at least somewhat similarly difficult for OU as well.

If ever the football programs at all schools were decoupled from the other sports, I think we'd probably see some major changes in the conference landscape.  But unless/until that happens, we've likely reached a pretty stable point.  The financial bubble is bursting, cable subscriber model is dying, so the financial incentives for making moves are decreasing pretty quickly.



utee94

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #62 on: January 15, 2019, 03:27:21 PM »
I don't know exactly what they mean by "dropping". They had the rights to even numbered years, so next year makes no difference. I haven't checked to see if Fox as a company still retains the rights, and they just propose making it regional, or if they're relinquishing it altogether - in which case I'd expect ESPN/ABC to throw in a couple of pennies to buy up the missing years before then.
It may be dawning on them that a CCG for a round robin league is a flawed idea, and that no one outside of the immediate fan base is interested.
The 2018 B12 CCG brought in the second-most viewers out of ALL of the CCGs, behind only the SEC.  So I sincerely doubt it's going to a regional network.  You'd have to think neither OU nor Texas are likely to make the game in the future to believe it won't receive good ratings.  
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CharleyHorse46

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #63 on: January 15, 2019, 04:50:24 PM »
Nobody on this thread knows for sure how things will shake out.  Some things to consider:

1. The Big 12 CCG did well this year because It was Texas-OU. 70% of the TVs in the Big 12 are in Texas, and the University of Texas is the most popular (and polarizing) Big 12 school in Texas.  OU has a big following too.  If Iowa State and Baylor are in the CCG, only a fraction of the Texas - OU audience is tuning in.

2. There’s no revenue gap for Texas and OU at the moment.  The B1G hands out $51m.  Texas gets $37m in 1st & 2nd Tier plus at least $15m in 3rd Tier.   The SEC hands out $47m.  OU gets $37m plus $9m.  Not enough of a difference to worry about.

3. But what if the gap widens, the LHN contract ends, and the GORs binding the Big 12 goes away.  Tell me Texas and OU wouldn't listen to the B1G.



utee94

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #64 on: January 15, 2019, 05:39:02 PM »
1) The same is true of ANY conference championship game.  The B1G CCG suffered in 2018 because it had Northwestern in it, but didn't completely tank because Ohio State was there.  But imagine if it were  Northwestern and Indiana?  Imagine if the SEC CCG were Mississippi State and Vanderbilt?  Ratings would suffer similarly.

2,3) The main driver for any "widening" of the revenue gap would come from the conference networks.  But as the cable subscriber model erodes, there's no reason to think that gap will widen, and in fact plenty of reason to believe it will diminish.


CWSooner

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #65 on: January 16, 2019, 08:03:19 PM »
1.  A CCG after a round-robin season is an abomination.  It's a guaranteed rematch (unlike what teams in the other four P5 conferences necessarily face), which means it devalues the regular-season game.  And a rematch is a bummer for the winner of the first game.  I hated seeing OU lose to Texas in October, but it would have been even worse to have won that one--the traditional rivalry game--only to lose to Texas in the CCG.  I imagine Texas fans felt that way.  I'm sure Nebraska fans felt that way back in '78 when Nebraska beat OU in Lincoln only to receive a rematch in the Orange Bowl as their reward.  IIRC, with 2 weeks to go last November, OU, UT, WVU, and ISU were still in the running for the CCG.  I think I remember that ISU-WVU was a possibility.  And if WVU hadn't tanked, the 'Eers could have been in the CCG vs. either OU or UT.  That would have been better than vs. ISU as a national attraction, but not nearly as good as OU-UT.  As a national game, OU-Texas moves the needle like no other match-up in the Big 12.

2, 3.  I don't have facts at hand to argue the revenue points, but I would hope that if the B1G came calling, or more likely hinting, OU at least would listen and respond with a request for membership.  And not primarily for the football revenue.

It wouldn't kill me if OU and UT ended up in different conferences as long as they agreed to keep the annual game in Dallas.  But I think the B1G would be more likely to hint non-AAU-member OU's way if the potential for a package deal were there.

It also wouldn't kill me if the Big 12 continued to bump along.  But I think WVU is a point of instability.  I'm sure when they joined the Big 12, they anticipated--or at least hoped for--another team or two in the Eastern time zone being added.  Now that that seems to have been nothing but a pipe dream, if I were WVU, I'd be trying to find another home.  Granted, their options seem to be nil, but that doesn't mean that they aren't dreaming of going elsewhere.

utee94

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #66 on: January 17, 2019, 07:58:12 AM »
Oh I certainly agree with you on the CCG after a roundrobin, C-Dub.  It's stupid and redundant,

But the B12 now fears that the committee doesn't care that a roundrobin creates a more difficult schedule, and doesn't care that playing nine conference games also produces a more difficult schedule than playing eight.  The B12 believed that mumbo jumbo from a few years ago about the committee needing to see a "13th data point" when they actually just wanted to put a helmet school in over TCU or Baylor.  Clearly the committee didn't care about the "13th data point" when they put OU into the CFP in 2015, nor did they care about it this year when they included Notre Dame.  It only matters to them when they're trying to eliminate non-helmets from consideration.

Additionally, the B12 wants the money from a CCG.

So unfortunately it's here to stay.


Mr Tulip

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #67 on: January 17, 2019, 10:54:29 AM »
Proximity is the bane and unfortunate fact of life in college football. We like stuff that happened recently, and weight it both consciously and unconsciously ahead of all other data points. The Big 12 needs something to get excited about at the end.

Given the current weight of the Big 12's teams, playing TX/OU at the end would be ideal. Since a big part of that game is the Texas State Fair, that isn't an option (nor would I really want that to happen). OU still has Bedlam, and most years that game against oSu has the capability to realign the Big 12 standings. It's good to have it at the end. Really, Texas needs a team like that to play at the end - a decent sized rival with the capability of causing a shift in the standings.

Eliminate the Big 12 CCG and play those two games on "Championship Saturday" right before the final CFP poll. I guess you could extrapolate it out and put all 10 teams in action that day. You're almost certain to end with matchups that might move the needle.

FearlessF

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #68 on: January 17, 2019, 01:52:45 PM »


Really, Texas needs a team like that to play at the end - a decent sized rival with the capability of causing a shift in the standings.


where are the Aggies when you need them?
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utee94

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #69 on: January 17, 2019, 02:51:36 PM »
where are the Aggies when you need them?
He specified, "with the capability of causing a shift in the standings," and not "a guaranteed win for the Longhorns" so the Aggies aren't really applicable.

FearlessF

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #70 on: January 17, 2019, 02:55:52 PM »
duly noted  
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Gigem

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #71 on: January 18, 2019, 09:11:47 AM »
He specified, "with the capability of causing a shift in the standings," and not "a guaranteed win for the Longhorns" so the Aggies aren't really applicable.
I distinctly recall knocking the Longhorns out of the CCG more than once over the years. Yes, it was lopsided for awhile but utee as you are well aware there was a time when A&M took 9/10 from the horns. I think we would’ve taken at least 4 of the last 6 had we stayed. 

longhorn320

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #72 on: January 18, 2019, 10:04:52 AM »
I distinctly recall knocking the Longhorns out of the CCG more than once over the years. Yes, it was lopsided for awhile but utee as you are well aware there was a time when A&M took 9/10 from the horns. I think we would’ve taken at least 4 of the last 6 had we stayed.

so is that an aggie scoreboard
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utee94

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #73 on: January 18, 2019, 11:40:36 AM »
I distinctly recall knocking the Longhorns out of the CCG more than once over the years. Yes, it was lopsided for awhile but utee as you are well aware there was a time when A&M took 9/10 from the horns. I think we would’ve taken at least 4 of the last 6 had we stayed.

LOL.  Of course you do.  And yet your administration made its 100-year decision, and will have to live with it.

Also, 27-25.  SCOREBOARD.

CharleyHorse46

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #74 on: January 18, 2019, 12:45:53 PM »
I distinctly recall knocking the Longhorns out of the CCG more than once over the years. 

MORE than once????
Here’s a trivia question for you:
That happened in 2006 and... when else?

BrownCounty

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #75 on: January 18, 2019, 02:45:29 PM »
I think we would’ve taken at least 4 of the last 6 had we stayed.

See how that works?  Avoid the Longhorns and assume a 67% winning percentage.

Much better than the results when actually playing.

BrownCounty

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #76 on: January 18, 2019, 02:49:42 PM »
And yet your administration made its 100-year decision

That whole "100-year decision" thing cracked me up.

As if college football will still exist in 100 years.

As if the same conference structure will exist in 100 years.

As if Texas A&M hasn't become an online degree factory and abandoned football in 100 years.

And other stuff.

longhorn320

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #77 on: January 18, 2019, 03:17:20 PM »
See how that works?  Avoid the Longhorns and assume a 67% winning percentage.

Much better than the results when actually playing.
see thats where Georgia made a huge mistake
they should have skipped the game and just assume they would beat a 4 loss team
« Last Edit: January 18, 2019, 07:14:33 PM by longhorn320 »
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BrownCounty

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #78 on: January 18, 2019, 03:41:29 PM »

Most recent post on the PAC board is November.  Yes please, let's join this conference.

FearlessF

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #79 on: January 18, 2019, 03:50:55 PM »
See how that works?  Avoid the Longhorns and assume a 67% winning percentage.

Much better than the results when actually playing.
as the Horns should have done from 84-94
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FearlessF

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #80 on: January 18, 2019, 03:52:11 PM »
That whole "100-year decision" thing cracked me up.

As if college football will still exist in 100 years.

As if the same conference structure will exist in 100 years.


hey, we're 8 years in and the clock is still ticking
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Gigem

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #81 on: January 18, 2019, 04:36:57 PM »
LOL.  Of course you do.  And yet your administration made its 100-year decision, and will have to live with it.

Also, 27-25.  SCOREBOARD.
Bitter much?  I’m not sure what you’re trying to say or convey but I think all parties will agree that moving to the SEC was a very good move for A&M even if results on the field have been mediocre at best. 
Also, depending on who you want to believe A & M was willing, at first to play the game regardless of conference affiliations. 
Personally, even though we would have probably won a majority of the fictional contests played during that time just based on overall records and the finish of the teams, I’m glad we put a hiatus on the game and I’d like to keep it that way for awhile yet. 

utee94

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #82 on: January 18, 2019, 05:43:59 PM »
Bitter?  Lulz.  Nope, I'm good. :)

A&M's administration did what it thought best, and most Aggie fans I know in real life are happy or at least content with the move, although my i s c & a aggie wife still doesn't much care about the SEC teams y'all now face, when she grew up with the Aggies playing all of the major  Texas schools instead.

I miss the rivalry and would like to see the game played again, but I don't think the logistics are ever really going to set up for it to be played annually anymore.  Eventually I'm sure it will pick back up as a semi-regular home-and-home series, played early in the season,  maybe two years out of every 8 or 10.  I'll look forward to it when that happens.

FearlessF

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #83 on: January 18, 2019, 06:28:04 PM »
As if college football will still exist in 100 years.

 Football facing growing insurance issue https://es.pn/2FygsVt
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Gigem

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #84 on: January 18, 2019, 10:55:08 PM »
Bitter?  Lulz.  Nope, I'm good. :)

A&M's administration did what it thought best, and most Aggie fans I know in real life are happy or at least content with the move, although my i s c & a aggie wife still doesn't much care about the SEC teams y'all now face, when she grew up with the Aggies playing all of the major  Texas schools instead.

I miss the rivalry and would like to see the game played again, but I don't think the logistics are ever really going to set up for it to be played annually anymore.  Eventually I'm sure it will pick back up as a semi-regular home-and-home series, played early in the season,  maybe two years out of every 8 or 10.  I'll look forward to it when that happens.
You just seem overly concerned about the supposed "100 year decision" any time conference realignment is mentioned.  Of course it's mostly bullshit because 100 years is a lot of time for stuff to happen.  Heck, I don't even think the SWC existed 100 years ago.  But it will probably last through my lifetime and yours too.  I think there is a lot of shock from the longhorn side that Texas didn't get hardly anything of what " they" wanted (PAC-10 or maybe even B1G) and A&M was able to make a move on their own recognizance compared to schools like oSu and Tech who had to toe the party line and do what they were told.  Sure, they got the LHN but fast forward a few years who really cares?  Pretty soon every school will have something similar all stream-able via whatever service of the day is the best.  
Playing all the "major" Texas schools?  Who is that exactly?  Texas and ???  Baylor sucks and will probably always suck, Tech who has NEVER even once won a sole conference championship, TCU who will disappear into the crapper and play to their real identity once Patterson is gone?  
Even though I was happy in the Big XII I think the matchups in the SEC are so much more meaningful.  I would rather play Auburn or Miss St any day over Tech or Baylor.  Yes, Alabama and LSU are murder but so was Texas and OU.  Their turn in the gutter will come, sooner than later I suspect based on how long they've been playing at a high level.  I don't miss playing Iowa St, Kansas, Colorado, or Baylor.  I kinda miss playing Tech, those were some barn burners and probably more of a rivalry at times than Texas/A&M.  

I think the game is on a 20 year hiatus and we're on year 8 so 12 to go unless we meet in a bowl game...

CharleyHorse46

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #85 on: January 19, 2019, 02:11:28 PM »
... Playing all the "major" Texas schools?  Who is that exactly?  Texas and ???  Baylor sucks and will probably always suck, Tech who has NEVER even once won a sole conference championship, TCU who will disappear into the crapper and play to their real identity once Patterson is gone?  
Even though I was happy in the Big XII I think the matchups in the SEC are so much more meaningful.  I would rather play Auburn or Miss St any day over Tech or Baylor.  Yes, Alabama and LSU are murder but so was Texas and OU.  Their turn in the gutter will come, sooner than later I suspect based on how long they've been playing at a high level...
You do realize, Gig’em, that Arkansas and South Carolina have not won SEC titles, despite being in that conference like 25 years.   Mississippi State hasn’t won one since 1941 and Ole Miss since 1963.  Add to that the 2 or 3 terrible G5 or FCS you guys have been playing every year since 2012 or so and there’s not a lot more substance to your schedule than you had in the SWC or Big 12.  Unless there’s some dignity is losing to better teams.

utee94

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #86 on: January 19, 2019, 04:50:05 PM »
 
You do realize, Gig’em, that Arkansas and South Carolina have not won SEC titles, despite being in that conference like 25 years.   Mississippi State hasn’t won one since 1941 and Ole Miss since 1963.  Add to that the 2 or 3 terrible G5 or FCS you guys have been playing every year since 2012 or so and there’s not a lot more substance to your schedule than you had in the SWC or Big 12.  Unless there’s some dignity is losing to better teams.
No kidding.  If anyone sounds bitter here, it's pretty clearly Gigem.  What a weird take, getting offended that my Aggie wife would be more interested seeing her team playing old regional rivals, rather than Mississippi schools she doesn't give a crap about.   


Gigem

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #87 on: January 19, 2019, 07:43:05 PM »
You do realize, Gig’em, that Arkansas and South Carolina have not won SEC titles, despite being in that conference like 25 years.   Mississippi State hasn’t won one since 1941 and Ole Miss since 1963.  Add to that the 2 or 3 terrible G5 or FCS you guys have been playing every year since 2012 or so and there’s not a lot more substance to your schedule than you had in the SWC or Big 12.  Unless there’s some dignity is losing to better teams.
I'm perfectly aware of everything you have just listed, but I have faith.  Arkansas has played for the title 4 times so they've been close.  I believe A&M is in a much better position to compete for the title than each school you listed for obvious reasons.  


« Last Edit: January 19, 2019, 07:53:27 PM by Gigem »

CharleyHorse46

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #88 on: January 19, 2019, 11:58:52 PM »
Okaaaay, Gig’em.  I will give you this: you’re not the only person in this world who imagines SEC competition is superior.  

If OU loses to Iowa State the Sooners drop like a rock.  If Alabama loses to Ole Miss, Ole Miss vaults into the Top Ten.  This double standard without merit is irksome to say the least.

FearlessF

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Re: Major Applewhite out at U of H ?
« Reply #89 on: January 20, 2019, 10:04:59 AM »
the only way to change it is with merit.  Iowa State needs to schedule and beat Ole Miss on the field

but, as we know, this is impossible because Ole Miss and others in the SEC refuse to schedule such games
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