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Topic: VOTE NOW - Who wins the 2018 CFP????

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OrangeAfroMan

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VOTE NOW - Who wins the 2018 CFP????
« on: December 27, 2018, 08:42:52 PM »
Well we need to vote on this before they play the damn thing!
1 Alabama vs 4 Oklahoma
2 Clemson vs 3 Notre Dame
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Who will win it all?  The breakdown:
#1 - Alabama, 13-0, SEC Champions
2nd in scoring offense
4th in scoring defense
26th in strength of schedule
Ranked outcomes:
W - 22TexasA&M, @4LSU, 18Miss.St., 4Georgia
L - None
The Tide is making their annual appearance in the playoff with a different kind of team.  The defense, while still good, isn't stupid-elite vs either the run or pass.  They haven't really had to, though, due to the Tide's most explosive offense under Saban.  Tagovailoa has recovered from injury and had an all-time great season, with a passer rating over 200.  The stable of RBs average over 6 yards per carry, and they also have the Belitnikoff winner at WR.  The defense allowed under 300 total yards per game.  They have both a KR and PR for TDs this year.  The punting game isn't great.
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#2 - Clemson, 13-0, ACC Champions
4th in scoring offense
2nd in scoring defense
47th in strength of schedule
Ranked outcomes:
W - 16N.C.State, #17BC
L - None
Clemson's been the closest rival to Alabama these last few years.  This year's version has been more balanced on offense and has an NFL defensive line.  QB Lawrence had a great first year, throwing 24 TD to only 4 INT.  Unlike past years, Clemson has the running back to match its passing game in Etienne, averaging 8.3 ypc! and 21 TDs on the year.  3 of those DL mentioned were responsible for 40+ TFL on the season.  The Tigers held opponents to under 100 yards rushing per game.  The kicking game isn't great.
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#3 - Notre Dame, 12-0, Independent
33rd in scoring offense
10th in scoring defense
32nd in strength of schedule
Ranked outcomes:
W - 14Michigan, 7Stanford, @24VT, 12Syracuse
L - None
The Irish have been a new team since Ian Book took over at QB early in the season.  The passing offense has been explosive and efficient, and they found a workhorse RB as well in Dexter Williams.  His 6.6 ypc has made this a balanced offense.  Like Clemson, ND spreads the ball around to 4 main targets.  The defense bends - not strong vs the run, not a lot of INTs vs the pass - but doesn't break often.  ND has the punting advantage over Bama or Clemson.
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#4 - Oklahoma, 12-1, BigXII Champions
1st in scoring offense
96th in scoring defense
27th in strength of schedule
Ranked outcomes:
W - @12WV, 9Texas
L - 19Texas
The Sooners' all-time great offense not only made up for its porous defense, but also allowed it to win the beauty contest for the last playoff spot vs Georgia and OSU.  OU scored at least 28 points in every game and put up over 45 points ten times.  QB Murray won the Heisman with the highest passer rating of all time AND almost 900 yards rushing, with 51 total TDs.  The running game is healthy, with two RBs around 1,000 yards each.  The Sooners sport two receivers with over 1,000 yards and 10 TDs.  But the defense finished last in FBS in pass defense.  OU won games in which their opponent scored 40+ points in four of their last five games.




===============================
Award Winners, All-Americans Involved:
QB Kyler Murray, OU (Heisman, AP POY, O'Brien)
WR Jerry Jeudy, ALA (Biletnkoff, 1st Team AA)
DL Quinnen Williams, ALA (Outland, 1st Team AA)
QB Tua Tagovailoa, ALA (Maxwell, Camp, 1st Team AA)
DL Clelin Ferrell, Clemson (Hendricks, 1st Team AA)
HC Brian Kelly, ND (Coach of the Year)





OL Mitch Hyatt, Clemson (1st Team AA)
OL Ben Powers, OU (1st Team AA)
OL Jonah Williams, ALA (1st Team AA)
DL Christian Wilkins, Clemson (1st Team AA)
DB Julian Love, ND (1st Team AA)
DB Deionte Thompson, ALA (1st Team AA)
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

847badgerfan

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Re: VOTE NOW - Who wins the 2018 CFP????
« Reply #1 on: December 27, 2018, 08:46:44 PM »
Bama.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: VOTE NOW - Who wins the 2018 CFP????
« Reply #2 on: December 27, 2018, 08:56:31 PM »
Voted Bama, but Murray is exactly the sort of QB to give their defense trouble. 

Honestbuckeye

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Re: VOTE NOW - Who wins the 2018 CFP????
« Reply #3 on: December 27, 2018, 08:58:51 PM »
Sooners
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Cincydawg

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Re: VOTE NOW - Who wins the 2018 CFP????
« Reply #4 on: December 28, 2018, 07:41:01 AM »
Voted Bama, but Murray is exactly the sort of QB to give their defense trouble.
Yup, but I can't pick against the favorite.  I think it could resemble the RB game last January.

fezzador

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Re: VOTE NOW - Who wins the 2018 CFP????
« Reply #5 on: December 28, 2018, 08:06:01 AM »
Bama is the team to beat until proven otherwise.

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: VOTE NOW - Who wins the 2018 CFP????
« Reply #6 on: December 28, 2018, 08:08:40 AM »
Bama already won the 2018 CFB Playoff, clear back in January. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

FearlessF

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Re: VOTE NOW - Who wins the 2018 CFP????
« Reply #7 on: December 28, 2018, 10:04:31 AM »
I wanted to vote for Georgia
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: VOTE NOW - Who wins the 2018 CFP????
« Reply #8 on: December 28, 2018, 12:10:53 PM »
I figure roughly a 65% chance they beat Oklahoma.  I give OU a better chance than most.  Then about a 60% chance of beating Clemson.

Taken together, that puts them under a 50% chance of winning both.

FearlessF

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Re: VOTE NOW - Who wins the 2018 CFP????
« Reply #9 on: December 28, 2018, 12:17:22 PM »
I understand how the percentages work, but if Bama has a 50% chance to win both games, do the other 3 teams each have a 16.6666% chance of winning both?
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: VOTE NOW - Who wins the 2018 CFP????
« Reply #10 on: December 28, 2018, 12:30:07 PM »
It would depend on the matrix and the percentages you allow for each to win of course.

The sum of the odds would have to be unity of course.

FearlessF

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Re: VOTE NOW - Who wins the 2018 CFP????
« Reply #11 on: December 28, 2018, 01:37:35 PM »
so, if the 50% chance is 3 times greater than the other 3 team's chances, then it's really more than a 50% chance?
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: VOTE NOW - Who wins the 2018 CFP????
« Reply #12 on: December 28, 2018, 01:45:21 PM »
Wut?

FearlessF

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Re: VOTE NOW - Who wins the 2018 CFP????
« Reply #13 on: December 28, 2018, 01:50:31 PM »
math isn't my strong suit
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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