Should playoff teams be expanded?

[Hawkinole]

I saw this article today stating that the CFP expansion has received a "groundswell of support."

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2810445-college-footballs-influential-voices-ready-to-discuss-8-team-playoff-format?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial

I would argue a two team playoff would have sufficed this year. There are two teams that appear better than all others, Clemson and Alabama. I take just the opposite conclusion from the arguments over the teams left out of the playoff. Ultimately this is driven by money, and no longer driven by academics.

If playoffs are to be expanded, the regular season should be shortened.

[SFBadger96]

Honest question: why Clemson?

[Brutus Buckeye]

Will the OP willing to eat crow if one of the other two teams wins the NC? 

[medinabuckeye1]

Honest question: why Clemson?

IMHO, this is a very fair question.  Clemson *MIGHT* be as good as most of us think they are, but I don't think that is proven yet.  There are two ways to prove it, one is to play a really strong schedule.  Neither Bama nor Clemson did that.  The other is to thoroughly dominate your opposition.  Bama did that but Clemson really didn't.  Clemson had two one score wins:

• A two point road win over #19 aTm in which aTm had a failed two point conversion attempt late in the game that would have tied it, and
• A four point home win over #20 Syracuse in which the Orange led at the half (16-7), at the end of the third quarter (16-13), and in the fourth quarter (by 23-13 and then 23-20).  Clemson trailed by three until scoring the winning TD with less than one minute to play.  

Those two were Clemson's only games against teams that were ranked in the final CFP Poll.  By comparison, here were Bama's:

• A TD win over #5 UGA
• A 29-0 blowout on the road over #11 LSU
• A 24-0 blowout at home over #18 MissSt
• A 45-23 blowout at home over #19 aTm (it wasn't even as close as the score seems)
• A 39-10 blowout at home over #23 Mizzou

[Entropy]

and to be fair.. Missouri wouldn't be ranked if they were in the BIG.   

[medinabuckeye1]

Will the OP willing to eat crow if one of the other two teams wins the NC?

IMHO, he shouldn't have to.  If Oklahoma or Notre Dame wins that doesn't mean that they were better over the course of the whole season, it just means that they were better when it counted.  IMHO, that would not prove that they should have been #1 all along or even that they should have been in the CFP.  Conversely, if Bama and/or Clemson gets run off the field in the semi-final that will not "prove" that they shouldn't have been in the CFP.  

[ELA]

IMHO, he shouldn't have to.  If Oklahoma or Notre Dame wins that doesn't mean that they were better over the course of the whole season, it just means that they were better when it counted.  IMHO, that would not prove that they should have been #1 all along or even that they should have been in the CFP.  Conversely, if Bama and/or Clemson gets run off the field in the semi-final that will not "prove" that they shouldn't have been in the CFP.  

100%
It's why that VCU run when they had no business making the tourney was so infuriating.  People used that as a counter, when it wasn't.  Nobody was ever saying they weren't good enough, simply that their resume didn't warrant it.  I always use the example that I think by the end of the year USC would have steamrolled either Miami or Ohio State in 2002.  But does that mean they should have been in the title game?  Nope.

[medinabuckeye1]

First, my perspective:

I am a fan and an alum of a school that has been right in the thick of the #4 argument every year that the CFP has existed.  If there had been an 8-team playoff (with or without auto-bids) my team would have been clearly in every year:

• 2014:  My team was #4 and a P5 Champion.  They obviously would have been in any plausible 8-team playoff.  
• 2015:  My team was #7 and not a P5 Champion but they were the second-highest ranked non-Champion.  They obviously would have been in any plausible 8-team playoff.  
• 2016:  My team was #3 and not a P5 Champion but they were the highest ranked non-Champion.  They obviously would have been in any plausible 8-team playoff.  
• 2017:  My team was #5 and a P5 Champion.  They obviously would have been in any plausible 8-team playoff.  
• 2018:  My team was #6 and a P5 Champion.  They obviously would have been in any plausible 8-team playoff.  

I wish my team was heading to their fifth consecutive playoff but I hope we do not expand.  The current playoff has four slots and there are five major conferences so we all know before the season even starts that at least one of them (two this year, in 2017, and in 2016) are going to get left out.  A lot of people hate that, but I actually like it.  I like it because it inherently means that there is nothing automatic about it.  Every game matters because you not only have to win enough games, you also have to do it in such a way that you look good doing it.  Blowout losses to 6-6 teams can be fatal.  I'm ok with that because it makes games against 6-6 teams relevant.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Assuming that we had adopted an 8-team playoff with auto-bids for the five P5 Champions and the highest ranked G5 Champion, here are the quarter-final match-ups that would have occurred from 2014-2018:
2014:

• #1 SEC Champion Alabama vs #20 MWC Champion Boise State
• #2 PAC Champion Oregon vs #7 MissSt
• #3 ACC Champion Florida State vs #6 TCU
• #4 B1G Champion Ohio State vs B12 Champion Baylor
• Best teams left out is #8 Michigan State (10-2)

2015:

• #1 ACC Champion Clemson vs #18 AAC Champion Houston
• #2 SEC Champion Alabama vs #7 Ohio State
• #3 B1G Champion Michigan State vs #6 PAC Champion Stanford
• #4 B12 Champion Oklahoma vs #5 Iowa
• Best team left out is #8 Notre Dame (10-2)

2016:

• #1 SEC Champion Alabama vs #15 MAC Champion Western Michigan
• #2 ACC Champion Clemson vs #7 B12 Champion Oklahoma
• #3 Ohio State vs #6 Michigan
• #4 PAC Champion Washington vs #5 B1G Champion PSU
• Best team left out is #8 Wisconsin (10-3)

2017:

• #1 ACC Champion Clemson vs #12 AAC Champion UCF
• #2 B12 Champion Oklahoma vs #8 PAC Champion USC
• #3 SEC Champion Georgia vs #6 Wisconsin
• #4 Alabama vs #5 B1G Champion Ohio State
• Best team left out is #7 Auburn (10-3)

2018:

• #1 SEC Champion Alabama vs #9 PAC Champion Washington
• #2 ACC Champion Clemson vs #8 AAC Champion UCF
• #3 Notre Dame vs #6 B1G Champion Ohio State
• #4 B12 Champion Oklahoma vs #5 Georgia
• Best teams left out is #7 Michigan (10-2)

[Brutus Buckeye]

IMHO, he shouldn't have to.  If Oklahoma or Notre Dame wins that doesn't mean that they were better over the course of the whole season, it just means that they were better when it counted.  IMHO, that would not prove that they should have been #1 all along or even that they should have been in the CFP.  Conversely, if Bama and/or Clemson gets run off the field in the semi-final that will not "prove" that they shouldn't have been in the CFP.  

I get what you are saying. They wouldn't deserve to go under the previous 2-team format. The DO deserve to go under a four team format, however. If one of them wins it they will most likely have to get through Clemson AND Bama. If they can do that, then they certainly prove that they are as good as those two. 

Notre Dame would be an undefeated team with a win over both of this year's "more deserving" teams. I mean c'mon.

[medinabuckeye1]

I get what you are saying. They wouldn't deserve to go under the previous 2-team format. The DO deserve to go under a four team format, however. If one of them wins it they will most likely have to get through Clemson AND Bama. If they can do that, then they certainly prove that they are as good as those two.

Notre Dame would be an undefeated team with a win over both of this year's "more deserving" teams. I mean c'mon.

In this regard the playoff has changed things a LOT.  Pre-playoff even the BCSNCG teams only played ONE highly ranked opponent in the post-season.  Thus, there was still the possibility of a split title (see LSU/USC in 2003).  Now there really isn't.  Whoever wins the CFP will do so by winning TWO games against teams ranked higher than any team that any of the teams outside of the CFP will play.  
Example, this year:
Even if you think that #5 UGA and/or #6 tOSU should be ranked ahead of #4 Oklahoma and/or #3 Notre Dame, the Bulldogs and Buckeyes are not going to be in a position to prove it unless ND/OU get massacred in the semi-final.  Suppose that #5 Georgia humiliates #15 Texas in the Sugar Bowl while #6 Ohio State does the same thing to Washington in the Rose Bowl.  They *MIGHT* pass OU/ND if the Sooners and Irish lose in the first round but there wouldn't even be an argument to put either the Bulldogs or Buckeyes at #1 no matter what happens in the playoff because no matter what, the winner will pick up two top-4 wins.  
FWIW:
I view Notre Dame somewhat differently than I view Oklahoma.  I'm saying this as someone who absolutely despises Notre Dame but they went undefeated on a reasonable schedule.  Based on final rankings, they:

• Beat #7 Michigan by a TD
• Beat #20 Syracuse by 33
• Beat #22 Northwestern by 10

They did have some alarming close calls against the likes of Ball State, Vandy, Pitt, and USC but I'm willing to overlook that for an undefeated team with at least some quality wins.  Notre Dame has those and if they manage to win the CFP they'll have more and better quality wins than anyone else.  

Oklahoma is a different case in part because they have a loss and in part because their defense is just awful.  We all had our doubts about Ohio State's defense this year but when I looked at advanced stats, Oklahoma's defense made Ohio State's look like the Steel Curtain.  They are THAT bad.  Even there, if the Sooners manage to win the CFP they'll have more and better quality wins than Georgia and Ohio State combined so there isn't much you could say to argue with them as #1.  

[Cincydawg]

I like uncertainty and mayhem, but then I'm retired.

Go back to the Olden Times and stop this forward pass silliness and play real man football.

[Brutus Buckeye]

I like uncertainty and mayhem, but then I'm retired.

Go back to the Olden Times and stop this forward pass silliness and play real man football.

Like Georgia Tech under Paul Johnson? 

[Cincydawg]

Good point, leave the forward pass alone.