the thing about Bama that makes them so formidable this season is their ability to play various and multiple sets. where almost every team has the ability to play one set very well and a few more in the case of emergency, Bama seems capable of playing several sets primary and equally effective- and they can change them mid stride- on the same drive if necessary. it's actually a thing of beauty if it wasn't Bama.
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the way i've always approached 'ciphering' games is impressions of capability... I don't how to label the approach, but a demo would be this:
I think Bama can score anywhere from a basement of 28 to a ceiling of 49 on UGA.
I'm thinking UGA can score anywhere from 21 to 36 on bama's D.
on a good day (for UGA) let's say they plant 36, and let's say Bama's O has a good day too and hangs 49, which means Bama wins... But.. that isn't how this sport is played- it's almost exclusively about removing your opponent from their game plan and stumping them- making them play a game they aren't comfortable playing. It happens that teams play atop their game and within their comfort zones from time to time, and it results in scores like LSU/Bama a few years back 6-3, or more recently OU/Texas 45-47 (two defensively minded and the other two offensively minded, and neither team successful of pulling the other off their 'plan'- these usually result in 'great' games regardless of scoreboard).
it's when one team finds success pulling their opponent out of their comfort zone we see huge deltas on the board. It's NOT always that the other team was that much better, it's that they found a mismatch that forced the other away from their strengths... other opponents may have the ability to duplicate it and do something similar, but not always... one key mis-match and one team puts a whoopin on the other- this can be scheme or components (talent).. Hapless teams (such as my Vols this year) have the worst mismatch on the lines which is the worst place to have it both in execution of scheme and in size/talent- which allows other teams to do just about anything they want..... teams like Bama have zero 'weaknesses' that will be detected prior to the game, and when it does come time to play Smart and Co. will be required to discover personnel mismatches and exploit them.
So these games come into 'good/bad' almost always. this would mean if Georgia has a 'really' good day, they hang 36 on bama, and bama has an equally 'bad' day, they only hang 28 on UGA- Georgia wins...
If Bama has a really good day i think they can hang 49 on UGA, which would require a discovered mismatch or disarray on UGA's D, and force their O to attempt playing a high-risk game plan which would result in more mistakes than success, and result in lower score of 21....
spread of scores, imHo, could be anywhere from UGA 21 to Bama 49, to UGA 36 to Bama 28... this, in my calculation method, means that UGA has to play near the top of their game to beat Bama, and bama only has to play marginally better than their basement to beat UGA...
but...... and this is where it get's sticky... Intangibles.
this is a developing rivalry, and it is a game with huge implications. both teams will arrive with intent more focused than an average Saturday in the Fall...
curiously, i only think the intangibles are worth 10 or so points in this game... both teams will be solid and not very prone to mistakes resulting in t/o's or special teams success.
those ten can be split however- giving 5 pts to Bama and 5 to UGA for a 'push', or, all to one if they remove the other from their comfort zone...
I like to think that a hungry UGA will play Bama in a way that Bama hasn't encountered this season and will maintain their composure, and take every one of the intangible points for themselves...
this suggests they will have a 'good' day, and will allow them to hang 46 points on Bama. I also think Bama will play no less than 'good' and maintain their composure as well, and hang their predicted 49 on UGA....
because both of these teams can play D, I gotta remove at least 14 points from that on both sides....
this gives UGA 32, rounded down to 31 for common score...
this gives Bama 35 which is a fairly common score....
and the score, by this reckoning, will be close to that given UGA plays at the absolute top of their game and takes the intangibles, and Bama isn't taken from their comfort zone (which will be really difficult as they can play multiple sets comfortably).
but UGA ain't that good and won't maintain the top level play, so knock off 3... and I figure Bama takes at least 3, but likely 7 of the intangibles off a strip+field position, so, instead of 35 they'll have 42(rounded down to 41)...
and there you have it...
most likely in my opinion final of Bama 41 and UGA 28.
/rant
