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Topic: Bama - UGA

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Cincydawg

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Bama - UGA
« on: November 25, 2018, 07:54:03 AM »
The last two times they played in the Dome were heart braking losses for the Dawgs, who managed to lead in both.

I'm not sure these Dawgs will ever lead, maybe 7-0.  They are looking better since the LSU debacle, which was a debacle especially as Bama went there and shut them out.  Both took care of Tenn and Auburn, Bama more impressively I think.  Bama has been "held" under 30 twice this season, and both were games where the opponent failed to score.  That offense is impressive, and the defense is typical Bama, maybe a bit less impressive, so I think the Dawgs can score, but not enough.

Bama 41  UGA 31.

And if turnovers favor Bama, it could get ugly.


bamajoe

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2018, 10:29:02 AM »
Cincy, I do not know why you continually down play your Georgia Bulldogs. They lost one game. That is quite common for a national champion. They came within one play of winning it last year and they have a better team this year. Personnel wise they are as good as Alabama and better than everybody else.

Fromm is as good as anybody on pin point passing. The running backs are the best duo in the land. The 340 pound oline mauls everybody and the defense is excellent.

Saturday's game is a toss up and the real NC game.

Cincydawg

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2018, 10:33:01 AM »
They did not look good, to me, earlier in the year, even before LSU.  The OL was a mess, which was unexpected.  They still have a lot of guys injured, but a couple may be ready next Saturday.

They look better to me now, but not Bama better, just my impression.  

I just saw an interesting stat that Fromm has the second best QBR in the country over the past five games, behind Murray, and close to a 70% completion ratio.




Drew4UTk

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #3 on: November 25, 2018, 11:53:45 AM »
I think Bama has the better team... I also think they've shown a few weaknesses after Auburn, of all teams... Swift or Holyfield can do anything Auburn's backfield or screen sets can do, and better. 

UGA can pull it off... Bama is in for their first fight of the season. 

The back of the rock said 31-28 Bama and had some depiction of a foot and clock?  My gut says 41-28 Bama. 

ALA2262

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #4 on: November 25, 2018, 01:55:13 PM »
42-21 Bama!

Gigem

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #5 on: November 25, 2018, 08:17:19 PM »
UGA 100-0.  

Hey, I can hope?  Anybody but Bama.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #6 on: November 26, 2018, 11:12:07 AM »
I just bought a ticket to the CG (Stub Hub).  It was 15% off cyber Monday so it went for it, #$328 including fees.

Nashville4UGA

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #7 on: November 26, 2018, 01:06:50 PM »

Going to take UGA's best game in ALL phases Saturday to pull this one off. 
i think Alabama is just too good this year, hope I'm wrong.  I think the line on this one is probably pretty accurate. 


Cincydawg

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #8 on: November 26, 2018, 01:20:33 PM »
UGA was on a par with Bama last year, maybe even better with Hurts at QB.

I think UGA is slightly worse and Bama is considerably better.

UGA misses Roquan Smith as much as anything.  I hope the OL gets healthy this week.

Nashville4UGA

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #9 on: November 26, 2018, 03:13:27 PM »
UGA was on a par with Bama last year, maybe even better with Hurts at QB.

I think UGA is slightly worse and Bama is considerably better.

UGA misses Roquan Smith as much as anything.  I hope the OL gets healthy this week.
Yes, UGA misses Roquan something fierce. Arguably the best MLB to ever play at UGA, but at the beginning of the season the loss of John Atkins was felt even more.  What Atkins was able to do for the defense last year in clogging up the middle goes unsung, but he was tremendous at the point of attack last year and allowed our lb's make plays.  Jordan Davis has started to fill that void as a freshman and it's making a difference in stopping the run. Monty Rice has played well. (he's no Roquan), but him being out for this upcoming game with Bama could be big.  Alot of very young players in that linebacker room.

Cincydawg

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #10 on: November 28, 2018, 12:42:37 PM »
I snagged one ticket to the game.  The security guy at our building works security at the dome also, so he was filling me in.

I'll be happy win or lose, well, elated if we win and OK if we lose.  The team has been looking better of late.  I saw Bama was the first team to beat every opponent by 20+ since Yale in 1899.

The '95 Huskers were dominating also.


rolltidefan

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #11 on: November 28, 2018, 03:00:50 PM »
the 95 'skers were great. "only" a 14 point win vs wash st kept them from claiming this as well. btw, that wash st team was coached by mike price, the "it's rolling baby" mike price that 'coached' at bama for about 3 months.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #12 on: November 28, 2018, 10:15:51 PM »
After reading that, my first thought was, "imagine the strip clubs in Pullman, WA" lol
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #13 on: November 29, 2018, 09:12:52 AM »
So, Bama is putting up points on just about every opponent, LSU and MSU held them down somewhat.  Can UGA's defense do that?  It will take some breaks I think to hold them under 30, and I don't expect that.  Part of that will hinge on whether UGA can run clock and have long drives and get TDs, which also will be tough.  The UGA offense is "clicking" right now pretty well, especially if they can get some OL guys back from injury.  But UMass and Tech are not Bama, by any stretch.

I'd say the "money call" is that Bama scores in the 30s and UGA scores in the 20s, maybe low 20s.  But if so, a couple of breaks can change that and make it close.

Swift and Holyfield are a very good 1-2 punch if the line can open any holes.  The latter especially is good at YAC, he's a load to bring down, and in many ways they mirror Sony and Nick from last year.  Fromm is accurate if given time, but I think he'll see a lot of pressure and will need to be sharp on the checks and hot reads.

Drew4UTk

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #14 on: November 29, 2018, 10:03:56 AM »
the thing about Bama that makes them so formidable this season is their ability to play various and multiple sets.  where almost every team has the ability to play one set very well and a few more in the case of emergency, Bama seems capable of playing several sets primary and equally effective- and they can change them mid stride- on the same drive if necessary.  it's actually a thing of beauty if it wasn't Bama. 

---

the way i've always approached 'ciphering' games is impressions of capability... I don't how to label the approach, but a demo would be this:

I think Bama can score anywhere from a basement of 28 to a ceiling of 49 on UGA.  
I'm thinking UGA can score anywhere from 21 to 36 on bama's D. 

on a good day (for UGA) let's say they plant 36, and let's say Bama's O has a good day too and hangs 49, which means Bama wins... But.. that isn't how this sport is played- it's almost exclusively about removing your opponent from their game plan and stumping them- making them play a game they aren't comfortable playing.  It happens that teams play atop their game and within their comfort zones from time to time, and it results in scores like LSU/Bama a few years back 6-3, or more recently OU/Texas 45-47 (two defensively minded and the other two offensively minded, and neither team successful of pulling the other off their 'plan'- these usually result in 'great' games regardless of scoreboard).

it's when one team finds success pulling their opponent out of their comfort zone we see huge deltas on the board.  It's NOT always that the other team was that much better, it's that they found a mismatch that forced the other away from their strengths... other opponents may have the ability to duplicate it and do something similar, but not always... one key mis-match and one team puts a whoopin on the other- this can be scheme or components (talent).. Hapless teams (such as my Vols this year) have the worst mismatch on the lines which is the worst place to have it both in execution of scheme and in size/talent- which allows other teams to do just about anything they want..... teams like Bama have zero 'weaknesses' that will be detected prior to the game, and when it does come time to play Smart and Co. will be required to discover personnel mismatches and exploit them.  

So these games come into 'good/bad' almost always.  this would mean if Georgia has a 'really' good day, they hang 36 on bama, and bama has an equally 'bad' day, they only hang 28 on UGA- Georgia wins... 

If Bama has a really good day i think they can hang 49 on UGA, which would require a discovered mismatch or disarray on UGA's D, and force their O to attempt playing a high-risk game plan which would result in more mistakes than success, and result in lower score of 21.... 

spread of scores, imHo, could be anywhere from UGA 21 to Bama 49, to UGA 36 to Bama 28... this, in my calculation method, means that UGA has to play near the top of their game to beat Bama, and bama only has to play marginally better than their basement to beat UGA... 

but...... and this is where it get's sticky... Intangibles.  

this is a developing rivalry, and it is a game with huge implications.  both teams will arrive with intent more focused than an average Saturday in the Fall... 

curiously, i only think the intangibles are worth 10 or so points in this game... both teams will be solid and not very prone to mistakes resulting in t/o's or special teams success.  

those ten can be split however- giving 5 pts to Bama and 5 to UGA for a 'push', or, all to one if they remove the other from their comfort zone... 

I like to think that a hungry UGA will play Bama in a way that Bama hasn't encountered this season and will maintain their composure, and take every one of the intangible points for themselves... 

this suggests they will have a 'good' day, and will allow them to hang 46 points on Bama.  I also think Bama will play no less than 'good' and maintain their composure as well, and hang their predicted 49 on UGA.... 

because both of these teams can play D, I gotta remove at least 14 points from that on both sides.... 

this gives UGA 32, rounded down to 31 for common score... 
this gives Bama 35 which is a fairly common score.... 

and the score, by this reckoning, will be close to that given UGA plays at the absolute top of their game and takes the intangibles, and Bama isn't taken from their comfort zone (which will be really difficult as they can play multiple sets comfortably).   

but UGA ain't that good and won't maintain the top level play, so knock off 3... and I figure Bama takes at least 3, but likely 7 of the intangibles off a strip+field position, so, instead of 35 they'll have 42(rounded down to 41)... 

and there you have it... 

most likely in my opinion final of Bama 41 and UGA 28.  

/rant


Cincydawg

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #15 on: November 29, 2018, 11:08:00 AM »
Sounds about right.  UGA might hang around for a half, or not.

They won't come back from a halftime deficit of any margin though.

Cincydawg

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #16 on: November 29, 2018, 11:14:04 AM »
A few times back, UGA "almost" beat Bama in part because of a punt block return by Alex Ogletree.  I think they had a few breaks in that game, and were on the 8 with seconds left and a pass was deflected and caught in bounds.  UGA had a very good QB and some excellent players on defense, but it was pretty clear they could only win by virtue of some breaks.

Last year, they manned up and went toe to toe and could have won, I think they were about equal, but this Bama squad looks to me to be dangerously better on offense.

Nashville4UGA

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #17 on: November 29, 2018, 01:10:36 PM »
What's interesting really about both teams is that both typically have gone into halftime leading by comfortable margins. More so for Alabama. Alabama never trailed a game going into halftime, although they did go into halftime against the Citadel of all teams tied.  Georgia only trailed at halftime once all year and that was on the road at LSU. (down 16-0 at half) 

on average Alabama has led at halftime 31.66 to 6.83. Georgia 22.45 to 7.8.  It'll be interesting to see how each of these teams will make halftime adjustments. 
When you look at the meaningful stats there are alot of similarities in these teams, but Bama is just the more explosive team on offense and that along with Alabama pressuring the QB and forcing some negative plays and that is what sets them apart. 

for UGA to win, they are going to have to force FG attempts in the red zone, maybe force a few turnovers (which we haven't done all that well this year) and pressure Tua. (which also has not been a strength this year either) Get off the field on 3rd down. 

I think the line on this game is about right at 13.5. I want to believe UGA can win this game, but it's going to take a damn near perfect game by UGA and of course you can't discount the referees having an effect on the game either. If UGA loses and it's just because Alabama is the better team, i'm fine with that. 


EastAthens

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #18 on: November 29, 2018, 11:50:58 PM »
I disagree with much written here.  LSU and Miss. St. both held Alabama under 30 and they both did it without any offense.  This team has everything it needs to make Tua sit his ass on the bench for extended periods of time.  I absolutely think UGA can win a 31-27 game without any breaks.  Alabama should be favored but 13 is a sucker bet. Good luck, Bama.  If you destroy this UGA team, you move into the pantheon with 1995 Nebraska and 2004 USC.

bamajoe

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #19 on: November 30, 2018, 07:02:58 AM »
I agree with East Athens. The line of 14 points is crazy and it is not a case of analyzing  comparative scores. Also the fact that LSU beat Georgia and not Alabama will have no bearing on this game. Instead of comparing scores imo one should analyze player positions. Alabama is not as good or deep along the defensive line. Georgia can run on anybody and keep Tua on the bench.

Tua may be a little better than from but Fromm is an excellent qb. I see two equally matched teams. As I have posted before this is the NC game.

Cincydawg

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #20 on: November 30, 2018, 08:06:01 AM »
Most CFB sites would have fans on each side clamoring about how great THEIR team is.

My notion is that Tua is THAT good and changes Bama from being very very good like last year to exceptional.

ALA2262

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #21 on: November 30, 2018, 02:43:23 PM »
A few times back, UGA "almost" beat Bama in part because of a punt block return by Alex Ogletree.  I think they had a few breaks in that game, and were on the 8 with seconds left and a pass was deflected and caught in bounds.  UGA had a very good QB and some excellent players on defense, but it was pretty clear they could only win by virtue of some breaks.

Last year, they manned up and went toe to toe and could have won, I think they were about equal, but this Bama squad looks to me to be dangerously better on offense.
Actually it was a FG attempt blocked and returned for a TD and probably cost UGA the game. What!?, you say. Well, the UGA defense was toast at the time and having the block returned put them right back on the field. After Bama ran 23 of the next 26 plays from scrimmage they were burnt toast and Bama had scored 2 TDs and retaken the lead. If the block had not been returned, and Murray had been able to give the defense a breather, the final result might have been different.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2018, 03:52:30 PM by ALA2262 »

Drew4UTk

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #22 on: November 30, 2018, 02:50:54 PM »
last year it went into overtime.... 

overtime, in my regard, is only for splitting hairs- it doesn't demonstrate one team as 'better'- in fact it proves they're equal during that bout.

this year, Bama has improved and UGA isn't as good as last year- but they're close.  And no matter how it's sliced, Bama hasn't met a team as well rounded talent/skill AND as well coached as Georgia.  

it ought to be a good game.  the explosiveness of Bama is the difference.  Not that UGA can't break one off too... Bama has 'leaned' on people for four quarters since Saban came to town, and broke teams in the third and early fourth quarters... this team?  They can still lean on opponents, but they can also attack the entire field at will...    

much of the approach by media focuses on how these two match up, and the focus is on shutting down Bama's O, as that is their most colorful unit this season (which is weird to type).  the REAL match-up, imHo, is how the UGA O stacks against the Bama D.  It doesn't look good for Georgia- and i see those 13.5 points right there. 

ALA2262

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #23 on: November 30, 2018, 02:59:15 PM »
last year it went into overtime....

overtime, in my regard, is only for splitting hairs- it doesn't demonstrate one team as 'better'- in fact it proves they're equal during that bout.

this year, Bama has improved and UGA isn't as good as last year- but they're close.  And no matter how it's sliced, Bama hasn't met a team as well rounded talent/skill AND as well coached as Georgia.  

it ought to be a good game.  the explosiveness of Bama is the difference.  Not that UGA can't break one off too... Bama has 'leaned' on people for four quarters since Saban came to town, and broke teams in the third and early fourth quarters... this team?  They can still lean on opponents, but they can also attack the entire field at will...    

much of the approach by media focuses on how these two match up, and the focus is on shutting down Bama's O, as that is their most colorful unit this season (which is weird to type).  the REAL match-up, imHo, is how the UGA O stacks against the Bama D.  It doesn't look good for Georgia- and i see those 13.5 points right there.
You fail to mention one important fact about last year's game. Bama's OC coached the first half with one hand tied behind his back. The left one! :) He coached the second half with both hands in front of him.

Drew4UTk

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #24 on: November 30, 2018, 03:02:40 PM »
i'm thinking Saban blew anything Smart was ready for totally up when Tua went in there... it was a smart move.  otherwise, it could be suggested, that UGA was clearly the best team prior to Tua... 

this season? Smart has time to get smart. 

i'm very much looking forward to the game. 

ALA2262

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #25 on: November 30, 2018, 03:34:52 PM »
i'm thinking Saban blew anything Smart was ready for totally up when Tua went in there... it was a smart move.  otherwise, it could be suggested, that UGA was clearly the best team prior to Tua...

this season? Smart has time to get smart.

i'm very much looking forward to the game.
Saban wasn't the last one to know the move to Tua needed to be made. He was just the only one that could make the move. Terrell Owens knew it before the season started.

"Terrell Owens, the Hall of Fame receiver, stood on the field after Alabama took down Georgia and thought one thing: finally. He remembered visiting the program that summer, when he and receivers Calvin Ridley, Cam Sims and Jerry Jeudy were in search of a quarterback to throw to them. Hurts was busy, so they called up Tagovailoa. Owens wasn't one to wait on a QB, let alone a freshman he'd never heard of, but they were raving about Tagovailoa so much that Owens had to see for himself.

For 90 minutes, Tagovailoa threw routes to Owens and the rest of the group. Of the countless passes he threw, Owens said he missed his mark only once.

"When you talk about precision, when you talk about timing, he was on point," he said. "You talk about the 'it' factor, this guy has 'it' and then some. ... I've seen pro guys not hit routes like that."

At the national championship game, Owens said he didn't panic when the Tide fell behind at halftime. When Tagovailoa trotted on the field, Owens turned to former Clemson star Wayne Gallman and said, "Game over."

"What?" Gallman asked.

"Trust me," Owens said. "This guy is the real deal."

The rise of Tua: From practice phenom to Heisman hopeful
« Last Edit: November 30, 2018, 03:39:07 PM by ALA2262 »

Cincydawg

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #26 on: November 30, 2018, 04:38:15 PM »
Whatever chance UGA has depends on the running game, the OL and Swift and Holyfield.  If they can't run, it's over.  If they CAN run, it could get interesting.  Fromm is "unspectacular" at QB to look at him but he makes throws if clean.   Establishing the run of course is the goal of MOST offenses, college or pro, but is both critical and tough to do against a team like Bama so adept at stopping the run.

I think we'll know fairly early in the game whether UGA is going to compete or it'll get ugly.


Gigem

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #27 on: December 01, 2018, 08:12:32 AM »
I think UGa has a decent chance to win this game but it's Alabama's to lose.  UGa has to play a perfect game and get some turnovers and Bama needs to be human for a day. 

bamajoe

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #28 on: December 01, 2018, 08:26:08 AM »
FWIW that unspectacular Fromm is the third rated qb in college football. To be fair I need to point out that Tua is number two.

Also, I don't think it is possible to stop Georgia's running game. Alabama needs to simply slow it down some. That is as you pointed out the key to the game.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2018, 08:32:36 AM by bamajoe »

Cincydawg

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Re: Bama - UGA
« Reply #29 on: December 01, 2018, 08:53:38 AM »
Fromm is "unspectacular" just in looks, not in performance.

He is almost never mentioned as one of the best QBs around by the Talking Heads.

That's fine with me.

He just does his job.  He's not fancy.

 

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