Lame attempt 8 at being a seer

[Cincydawg]

One of these weeks I will stumble into success, and quit.

GotW:

Alabama as we all know has been trampling out grapes and opponents with equal fervor.  LSU has a stout defense and somewhat sporadic offense, but has some nice wins and one respectable loss.  I just don't see an upset against The Machine, Bama 37  LSU 16

GotW2

This looks odd, but is.  Kentucky has generated a solid, very solid defense, and usually can run the ball, while Georgia has had a porous run defense and sporadic offense.  That isn't a good combo of course, and the game is up north, but at 3:30.  I can't go with UK, probably helmitis here, Georgia 27  UK 17

USCe at Ole Miss - Hafta to go with the visiting team 31-20

Mizzou at Florida - Will the Gators have a hangover?  Will Mizzou?  No, and yes.  Florida wins 34-17.

[OrangeAfroMan]

If Florida's starting defensive backs are still out, Missouri is going to win.
CB Henderson (back injury)
FS Stewart (suspension)

[Gigem]

Just curious how you feel about A&M at Auburn?  Miss St. seems to have our number.  So far, the visiting team has won this one each year.  

[Cincydawg]

I had something posted and it disappeared.  

I like A&M in another close road win at Auburn, 27-23.

Losing to Tennessee is simply not something an SEC team should do at home.

A&M beat USCe on the road, a tough place to play, by a similar score, and USCe is better than Auburn.

[bamajoe]

I believe Ole Miss will beat the Gamecocks without a lot of trouble. I don't think SC can keep up with the Black Bears offense plus the game is in the Bear's den.

Ole Miss 35 South Carolina 28

[Cincydawg]

All interesting games.

[bamajoe]

I believe this to be a toss up. I give it to Auburn by one point

Auburn 28  Texas  A&M  27

[Cincydawg]

I believe this to be a toss up. I give it to Auburn by one point

Auburn 28  Texas  A&M  27

Lock of the week.

[Cincydawg]

Dawgs seem ready to play.

[Drew4UTk]

Bama really is THAT good... I mean, we knew that... But.... Damn. 

[Cincydawg]

They are better than we thought, and WE get to play them ....

[Cincydawg]

My record at calling games that are in some doubt it really really bad.  I did get USCe over Ole Miss at least.  The Mizzou win at Florida is mystifying to me, I didn't watch it.  I don't know how that happens, but it did.  Florida loses at home to Mizzou AND UK and beats LSU.

Weird.

The Dawgs shut down the UK rushing offense and won the game fairly handily despite some turnovers and a rash of injuries on the OL.  That last item could be significant next week if folks don't get healthy soon, especially at center.

Auburn showed some fight today and could indeed pose a threat for UGA in terms of the Dawgs getting to a NY6 bowl.

[MikeDeTiger]

Bama really is THAT good... I mean, we knew that... But.... Damn.

Our line is also really that bad.
Prior to the season I told you guys the OL was the biggest concern, there was not much experience there, then they proceeded to get hit with an ongoing suspension to the one guy who had experience and multiple injuries.  They got mauled vs. Miami, vs. Florida, and vs. Clanga.  They even had trouble against the directional schools.  Not shocking they got mauled by Alabama.  
This is still one of the poorest offenses in the SEC you're talking about.  
Offensively, they are what we thought they are.  They're really, really good.  They're also not Superman like people want to bill them to be.  They scored 29 points, which isn't a bad showing anyway, considering their strength on offense and LSU's on defense.  That's a "win" for both teams.  Now consider that if LSU had any OL at all and could make a few first downs--forget points--Alabama almost certainly scores 22 or less simply by having less possessions and opportunities.  Then consider that LSU's defense was understandably gassed halfway through the second quarter.  A few offensive drives--again, forget points--keeps them fresher and the score probably goes down even more.  
I'm not bagging on them at all.  I told y'all LSU's defense would be good, and scoring 21ish points in my hypothetical is still really good.  That side of the ball went like I expected.  Their guys made some plays, our guys made some plays, and they did not boatrace us nor did they bomb the field at will and they didn't hit 30.  Again, that's not slamming them.  Hitting 29 against this defense is really, really good.  Because they are that good.  But they're not going to drop 50+ on everybody.  A few other teams could do this better, and I suspect we're headed for another (ugh) Bama/Clemson showdown.  The job will get exponentially harder because Clemson has some semblance of an offense.  
Not that it matters much, but what I really am waiting to hear answered this week is why Orgeron elected to defer after winning the toss.  He flat-out said during the week he would receive if he could, and that made a ton of sense with the best defensive player out.  Hopefully limit Alabama to one less offensive possession in the half without your best defender on the field.  That TD right before the half was brutal, and that may well not happen if the order of possession is reversed.  LSU did their job and did not allow points on Alabama's first possession for the first time all year, he got bit right on the ass by not following through on his idea to try to make sure they have the most possession opportunities in the half with as many defensive players as are healthy.  
At any rate, holding Tua's QBR to 70 pts lower than his next lowest outing and picking him off will just have to be a moral victory of sorts for this 5-7 team.  

[Drew4UTk]

you know i respect your opinion, @MikeDeTiger , so don't take this as argumentative- but.... 

when you're parsing your teams status, it's easy to see where you're hurting the most.  In your case it's your OL.  It's the same for UTk- the OL is the worst unit on the field... however, your OL compared to ours, and... uh... you look like Pro's and we're still stuck in a community college conference somewhere.... meaning: I don't think your OL is that bad.  I also think your OL just faced one of the most dominant DL's if not THE dominant DL in the nation.  

Saban gets credit as a manager- and rightfully so.  He is rarely recognized as a tactician/strategist... but... I think that's happening this season right under our noses...  I think he's pulling a cutcliffe/FULMER/chavis move- meaning, in a mock conversation that happens on both the sideline and the planning room for games 

Fulmer :  Chief, we need to have fresh O players; bend, don't break.  Cut, we need to be able to control the tempo; slow down the O and wear on the D linemen who we feel are inferior to our OLine and bench... 

Chief : Coach Fulmer, I'll run some man zones and defend field position until they break in our territory but i'll need the O to pull their weight and hold ball for at least two sets each possession, as they have WR's and routes that will wear down our DB's even in a zone coverage.  

Cut: We DO have a OLine that can protect the QB and/or open some lanes, and we'll keep the ball moving and in bounds to give the D a break, but realize this will make the game appear closer than it really could be, and, if the opponent comes out slinging on our tired DB's, this could go to a shootout with a quickness... we don't want to have a shootout with this team.

^i'm not sure if that get's my point across, but.... LSU IS good- surprisingly so this season, and it isn't luck nor happenstance... it was well planned and executed.  Bama, however, is just plain better- and likely better than anyone i've seen play ever.  now to caveat the 'ever', I don't think bama has the best RB's in the nation, but they do have the best backfield... I don't think they have the best WR's, but the WR corps is possibly the best.  I don't think the LB's as individuals are show stoppers, but together and in unison with the line and db's?  They are more than serviceable.  

in short, I think Bama is purposely playing bend don't break D in effort to keep O fresh.  I think 'as a team' they are the best i've ever seen... and i think saban is playing a supremely tactical game right now and not a lot of folks have caught on.  That is NOT to say LSU sucks- but simply to say LSU is damn good and could likely play anyone to the wire~ except Bama.  Banging on all 8 with a healthy (intended) starter corps, nobody is playing the same game, as a team, as Bama is.