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Author Topic: LSU - Mississippi St.  (Read 254 times)

Offline MikeDeTiger

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LSU - Mississippi St.
« on: October 18, 2018, 02:13:45 PM »
Nobody cares.  I think we only ever had one MSU poster--PharmDawg--and he only posted like 5 times in all the years I was here.  

S&P+ looks to see a pick'em here, though the game is in Baton Rouge.  Raw stats have the Bulldogs as the best defense in the league on a ypp basis (although my personal adjusted ypp metric has Florida as the best defense so far), with LSU not bad but also not quite as good as Clanga.  

This game last year started the stretch--along with Syracuse, Troy, and Florida--where LSU had already lost some linemen for the season and began having the leftovers injured for a few weeks.  Dangerously thin on both fronts and it showed in a string of ugly games.  They also mentally wilted.  QB Etling hit a beautiful go route down the sidelines early on to DJ Chark for 7 points, which was called back on the most BS of OPI penalties I can recall, including a later drive where MSU's WR ran the exact same pick and correctly was NOT flagged for it.  Instead of nutting up and doing it again, the Tigers visibly hung their heads and proceeded to get their asses kicked for the next 3 and a half quarters.  This would become an m.o. of those other games mentioned in that time, even the ones they won....LSU would look good to start, something wouldn't go their way, they'd quit.  

MSU may win this game, but it's hard to sell the idea of a UGA hangover or looking ahead to Bama.  These LSU kids and staff should be thinking revenge from last year's beatdown.  Some of them in particular would probably like to atone for lack of leadership and to show MSU that it's a different story when more linemen are healthy and available.  

Not much has changed for Moorhead's version of the Bulldogs, they are still mostly running Mullen's offense.  Some fans tell me QB Fitzgerald is not ideally suited to what Moorhead wants to do, so for now they're sticking with a round peg for a round hole.  The defense likewise still features a lethal front 4, highlighted by two of the best defensive linemen in the nation, Sweat and Simmons.  MSU gave LSU fits last year with its option look from trips formation, they'll probably want to test that again after Florida also had some success with it this year, and LSU needs to prove they can stop it.  

For LSU, this would be a good week to improve on efficiency in the offense.  LSU nets many good drives, but on a per-play basis is horribly inefficient, and it would seem over time that's probably not sustainable.  Better run blocking and pass protection from the line is a good place to start, but while the line is showing signs of improvement, MSU is a terrible front to try to make strides against.  I think the Tigers need to call 5-6 slants through the game (and hit them, obviously) to take advantage of how i think MSU will align against us.  They also need to figure out why their screen game isn't working, because there's likely to a couple of good times for that, and LSU can't afford to waste a play that's there by design on bad execution.  

Beyond that, they have to figure out a way to score TDs.  Which is the next thing LSU has to improve on; RZ TD %.  Having a legit weapon at place-kicker is great, but field-goaling your way to victory is not a strategy for sustained success.  This won't be easy, because LSU scores TDs on just 52% of its RZ trips, and MSU is as stingy as they come in allowing TDs.  

Tigers look to have an advantage in most ST areas.  This is another chance to make a leap forward, but also a chance for a loss to sour a big win over UGA.  This game will say a lot about whether this is a 6-2 team in conference, or a 4-4 one.  



Online rolltidefan

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Re: LSU - Mississippi St.
« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2018, 12:01:14 PM »
Nobody cares. 
that's because no one likes to see blowouts. you guys gonna keep it within 20 this year?

Offline MikeDeTiger

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Re: LSU - Mississippi St.
« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2018, 02:22:39 PM »
Kentucky already beat Florida, I think 2018 has exhausted its breaking of remarkable streaks already. 

Online Gigem

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Re: LSU - Mississippi St.
« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2018, 11:11:21 AM »
I’m interested because we play em next week. Looking forward to seeing how LSU handles their run game. 

Online rolltidefan

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Re: LSU - Mississippi St.
« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2018, 11:13:35 AM »
run game wasn't that bad, but holy hell was the passing game just awful. at one point, fitz was 4-19, 11 yds, 0 td, and 4 ints (this was after the int that was called back, so really 5). how is that possible?

Offline MikeDeTiger

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Re: LSU - Mississippi St.
« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2018, 01:30:22 PM »
You gotta love Dave Aranda.  Not the plan I would've come up with, but then they don't pay me more than every other coordinator in the country.

MSU has a bad passing game but the conference's most productive running game.  So what does LSU do?  lolz....thin the box and load up on the pass.  MSU's early drive (second, I think?) saw Fitzgerald have good success on the ground.  So Aranda puts another guy down there the rest of the way, but it's still like 5, never 7, and instead of strength-on-strength he goes strength-on-weakness.  He gambled that the 3 man front could control the gaps enough to let the LBs clean up the run, and made sure a bad passer was facing even a good passer's nightmare.  Thanks to the line getting it done and safeties who could come down quickly, it worked.  4 INTs, and 2 more for the taking if the DBs had a little quicker hands/reflexes.  

Just looking at stats I might like to see LSU allow less yards on the ground, but was it ever effective.  Do well enough against the run, make a bad passing game not only worse, but actively productive FOR the opponent.  Traded some plays for drives, as it were.  I'll take a 3 point showing.  112 of their 260 yards came on their final two drives when LSU was protecting a 19-3 lead and cared more about the clock than the yards gained.  

Good GAWD did their D-line whip our OL.  Again.  

Online Gigem

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Re: LSU - Mississippi St.
« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2018, 07:43:12 PM »
Well it looks looks like LSU has the blueprint on how to beat em. Unfortunately our passing defense is not nearly as good as LSU’s. I think our run defense is equal or possibly better. I’m confident we can move the ball better than most even against their extremely tough defense and that nasty d-line. We moved it against Clemson and Bama, I expect to score somewhere between 18-28 pts. 

This game will be a real test for the 2nd half of the season. 

Offline MikeDeTiger

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Re: LSU - Mississippi St.
« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2018, 09:20:50 PM »
I imagine A&M will go with their strengths and play MSU pretty much the opposite of how LSU played them.  A&M will probably load up against the run and take their chances with Fitzgerald's poor passing.  We basically tried to limit the run with minimal manpower, just enough to make drives effective only if he could throw a little, and then penalize him for trying to pass by stealing possessions.  

I don't know about the running games faced by each team, but A&M has a better run defense than LSU on a ypp basis.  Given Fitzgerald's limitations and A&M's ability to put the breaks on the only thing State does well, A&M should make it tough on State to score points.  

 

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