WLOCP 2018

[OrangeAfroMan]

Both teams have a bye next week, so might as well get this one started.


I have a question:  UGA will be favored and should be favored, but...did LSU do anything to the Dawgs that Florida can't do?

[Cincydawg]

Florida certainly can win this game.  I'd take Florida and points were I a betting man.  I've posted about how the Dawg offense has looked anemic most of the year, hit and miss, with a lot of miss.  They get into a good running sequence as they did early against LSU and then throw the ball on first down.  Just RTDB when it works.

And I think the OL has been far less effective than last year's version.  Either way, I don't see this years' edition as being as good as last year's at this point.  The defense is pretty solid.

[OrangeAfroMan]

I chose the Dawgs as overrated on the B10 board.  Not because I hate them.  Not because they're bad.  Simply because you cannot replace the 2-headed monster they had at RB last year.  And if it only caused the running game to regress would be one thing, but Fromm is learning what it's like to not have anything scary lined up behind him.  It's tough.  


So I picked UGA, of the top teams, to struggle because going from 7 yards-a-pop every time you hand it off to a more pedestrian 5 yards-a-pop makes life harder for the entire offense.

[Cincydawg]

I think the running backs have been fine.  The OL has been spotty and the play calling "interesting".

Of course, fans always want different play calling, after the fact.  But we had a nice drive going on LSU running the ball 7-8-9 yards a crack and they call a pass play.

[OrangeAfroMan]

Why doesn't Holyfield have more carries?

[Cincydawg]

Because Swift and Herrien are about as good as he is.  They like to switch backs obviously.

Something is not quite right with this team.  I point to the OL, but perhaps it's something else.  I dunno.  A lot of talent out there, not much consistency.

[MikeDeTiger]

Something to be said for the hot hand.  The other guys may be as good, but it was Holyfield that LSU never proved it could stop.  That would definitely be my "what-if" if I were a UGA fan.  

As far as why less running in general, I have to think Kirby panicked a little when they got down 10-0 and started playing catchup way too early.  But they definitely did continue to run the ball, just with less success getting behind the chains.  Aranda clearly wanted to try to play them in LSU's 2-4-5 "Peso" look, and it didn't work.  UGA mugged us on the first drive.  So he switched to the more base 3-4-4 with more beef and those running lanes clogged up a fair bit.  

(ETA:  FAIL.  I meant start in 3-2-6, which (I think) is the Peso package, with Delpit close to the line.  UGA used hurry up to keep us in that look.  Then after a timeout or stoppage of some sort, LSU substitutes to a 3-3-5 with more beef and a different alignment in the middle.  Suddenly those 10-12 yard runs were 2 yard runs and they force the (fake) fg.)

But....Holyfield still got chunks, when they used him.  

Whatever.  One-off games can be crazy even when teams are in the same ballpark, let alone a significant difference making results even crazier.  Georgia, Florida, and LSU are probably in some general range together without any of them being markedly better or worse.  All have warts but all have bright spots.  That said, after finally getting a chance to rewatch LSU/UF a couple days ago and getting to rewatch and break down LSU/UGA last night, I come away with the feeling that LSU could play these two teams again and more often than not get opposite results.  Home field advantage, maybe?  At Florida, there was just a lot of little things that LSU didn't do and Florida did do, and they added up.  Then it reversed the next week.  Upon rewatch, other than the OL understanding their assignments better, LSU didn't play any better really than @UF.  But there was just little things here and there that they did and went their way, and little things UGA didn't do or didn't go their way.  For some reason it ended up not that close, but to my eye that result is likely not repeatable.  

[MikeDeTiger]

Both teams have a bye next week, so might as well get this one started.


I have a question:  UGA will be favored and should be favored, but...did LSU do anything to the Dawgs that Florida can't do?

Biggest weapon I saw for LSU vs. UGA was tempo.  LSU used it, UGA was not ready for it, nearly all game.  Caught them in one substitution infraction for cheap yards, but numerous other plays UGA just wasn't set.  

LSU racked up 207 yards on 20 uptempo plays:  11 runs for 119 yards, plus 6/9 completions for 88 yards.  LSU averaged 10.4 ypp (2/2 on 4th down as well) on uptempo plays, while regular plays saw LSU average 4.4 ypp.  

LSU did well enough at the LOS to win, maybe, but the hurry-up is where I saw LSU really press the advantage.  

No idea about Florida duplicating it or UGA's preparedness in the future.  

[OrangeAfroMan]

The odd thing about this game is not only the current spot each team is in, but that plus the last 2 years.  
2016 - Florida wins, seems like UGA could play 10 quarters and not score a TD.
2017 - UGA blows the Gators out, are suddenly world-beaters.
2018 - UGA no longer a world-beater, Florida over-achieving,...just weird.

[MikeDeTiger]

I haven't watched enough of UGA probably.  I have watched most all the UF games, it does look like to me that offense is slowly coming around.  I'll be interested to see how Kirby addresses some of the things he's probably not happy with from the LSU game.  Does he correct or merely overreact?  One thing the Gators (should) have in their favor, imo, is Mullen calling plays.  He's up there with the best in the game, I think.  

I've mentioned some stuff we do on an LSU site here before (a lot of the preseason unit rankings are looking pretty good, some obvious misses)...well this has nothing to do with that, but I also run a productivity index for QBs and also for defenses.  It's basically a modified ypa.  It's not forward looking at all, so it's more or less the opposite of the S&P+ and FEI advanced stats.  It's the definition of backward looking and doesn't take into account sos, so it's nothing more "what they've done so far against the schedule they happen to play."  Anyway, Florida's defense currently leads the SEC in that defensive productivity index.  I don't have the spreadsheet in front of me, but I believe they score a 3.26, which after tracking it a few years I can tell you is really good.  For comparison, it's about what UGA's # was last year (Alabama broke our scale though with an insane number in the high 2's).  Hovering around the 4.0 mark is usually "good or better," dipping down into the 3's gets into elite territory.  Low 3's is great.  Again, this means nothing going forward, just a note that the Gators have lead the SEC so far in our little adjusted ypp metric.  Things will shift as the season goes on....just this week Alabama's defense made a leap to #2 behind UF.  Other teams' performance obviously affect the rankings, so a "good" or "bad" game is never ranked in a vacuum.

All that said, I'm not predicting a Florida win.  It just won't surprise me.  I don't know who wins this game, but unlike so many of the WLOCP this decade, this should be highly watchable.  

[MikeDeTiger]

It's funny how different things are on a cold rewatch with a pen and paper as opposed to being a fan in the heat of the moment.  A few days ago I finally got to go over the LSU/UF game again.  After that game on here I mentioned Ensminger's seeming unpreparedness for Grantham's constant blitzing, and listed it as my major head scratcher.  On a rewatch, that just wasn't the case at all.  LSU actually put several screens on, and a couple other blitz-beater plays.  They just couldn't execute them.  This continued against UGA, where there was very nearly disaster twice on two screen plays where it was the perfect call, just as with Florida, but the Tiger players just have problems with them.  Not my personal work, but I have reason to trust the source, apparently LSU has been really bad at screens all year.  In the UGA game, the problem to me looked like the back both times.  He wasn't getting out to his spot in time.  Fromm and Franks may have more success with their tailbacks, those plays are probably going to come open a few times a game for both teams, if they get them.  

I also was thinking how bad Aranda did and how Mullen just owned him up and down the field.  That's how it felt anyway.  In reality, UF ran 71 plays (?...going from memory, may have totally pulled the wrong number out of thin air), most of the time LSU was doing exactly what they needed to do.  Fact is, there was 7 plays where Mullen just made the perfect call at the right time against the look LSU gave.  That's just credit to Florida and nothing much to complain about for LSU.  The rest of the plays either went well for LSU, and the ones that didn't were a handful of bad tackling plays, and plays where UF set the edge better than LSU could and didn't keep the LBs clean.  But not bad alignment or lack of understanding of the assignment.  It wasn't nearly as ugly as I remember it.  On the flip side, I came away from the rewatch feeling even more than in real time like that's surely got to be the nadir of the O-line.  Amazingly Florida is the only team to capitalize on an already young and inexperienced OL starting a different 5 every week.  Still needed work against UGA, and I just don't think it's gonna happen until next season, but they did get their assignments down a lot better, especially on the left side.  

All that to say, I suppose, this game will be our last two opponents and I just got to do a good deep dive with them.  Florida definitely had the upper hand on the defensive front over UGA, though I doubt it means anything since LSU's OL played better and comparisons against LSU are pointless anyway.  TLDR version, no clue, I got nothing.  I can't even predict my own team accurately this year.  I guess I'll take UGA, to round out the circle of defeat and hold it as evidence these teams are a pick'em for 2nd place in the league.  Maybe along with A&M.  We'll see.  

[OrangeAfroMan]

Well wasn't the UGA game the first chance LSU had at the same OL lineup twice in a row?  That's a big deal.

[Cincydawg]

I don't have much faith in the Dawgs obviously.  I think they could finish a rather weak 10-2, but 9-3 would not shock me at all.

Maybe last year spoiled me and set my expectations too high, but this team is misfiring on offense consistently.  They get a little something going and then change the script and flail.

[MikeDeTiger]

I think UGA's work lies in dealing with the Gator defensive front much more than being smart (swidt?) and sticking to what works.  I don't know that changing the script is what went wrong for UGA.  

I charted the runs from UGA's 2nd drive, I believe it was, when Holyfield and Swift were popping for something like 12 ypc, against the 3-2-6.  Play stops, LSU subs to the 3-3-5 and doesn't go that light again.   Thereafter, UGA's runs are all between 0 and 4 yards for the rest of the day, sans the following 3 plays.  Swift popped a 14 yarder early in the 3rd to go along with the shorter gains.  Even that drive I thought was the Fields/Holyfield combo blistering us down the field was an illusion of memory.  Fromm actually passed down the field on a nice UGA drive, then in the redzone Fields substitutes in, the defense crashes hard on him and Holyfield gets another two very nice runs, one for TD.  In my mind I was thinking they just gashed us over and over, but it was just two plays.  

So that's the changing production of runs, but what about attempts?

After LSU takes a 3-0 lead, UGA puts together a good drive with those big runs which results in no points (the fake), LSU scores a TD on next possession to go 10-0.  So on UGA's 3rd possession, they pass on first down.  Not that big a deal, right?  I mean, you don't want to run the ball every first down, fans would definitely complain about that, so that's nothing egregious.  It's incomplete.  Now behind the chains at 2nd and 10, having its last 3 running plays stuffed, UGA feels like it needs to pass, and it is a passing down.  2nd and 3rd down are another incompletion and not enough gain, so punt.  Feels like abandoning the run, but really it's just an unfortunate string of plays starting with an incompletion that forced UGA to the air. 

UGA doesn't have another possession without running the ball until later in the 2nd half when they're down far enough that it makes sense to air it out more.  Even after that they still run some, so there's really only two unproductive drives in the game where they pass every down, neither of which is awful considering the situation.  It did not feel that way to me in the game, probably because I was traumatized by UGA's second drive with huge runs, but they did keep running, with 15 of their 22 runs by RBs (my count, not official) coming after the fake and the 10-0 hole early in the 2nd quarter.  

For the most part, LSU did better at the defensive LOS than I thought, and this is the key challenge for UGA next week.  Find a way to move UF off their spots and get at those LBs.  Running the ball won't be easy, but it will be key.  Committing to the run more isn't the question, being more successful with it will be.  Throwing on Florida likely isn't going to be any easier than it was on LSU.  The averages are deceiving in the yards per carry vs. LSU....the mode range has to be better on a ypc basis.  UGA needs to be able to say it ran in that 5 yard range most often against Florida as opposed to the 2-3 yard range.  It would have made a difference at LSU and will likely be key against UF as well.