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Author Topic: Sunday Morning 1-14  (Read 2201 times)

Online MikeDeTiger

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #60 on: November 08, 2018, 10:18:38 AM »
But it works for other teams in either division:
Tennessee shouldn't have lost 11 in a row to Florida

If Auburn can beat Bama 3 out of 8 years, LSU can, too.  
You're not listening.

EVERY game Alabama loses is an upset.  When they lose, somebody didn't do their job.  
Upsets are far, far less likely to happen when a team goes to work with bullets in their eyes all week.  You don't have to believe it, but it's true.  Alabama is capable of falling asleep against Auburn, and they will not against LSU.  Auburn happens to have an offensive mind who makes it more likely to pull the upset when Alabama does take a nap, and LSU does not.  But that doesn't matter because Alabama ain't napping first week of November.  

The last Auburn team that "should" have beaten Alabama was 2010, and they did.  So did LSU.  Alabama has been a better team than LSU, Auburn, Ole Miss by an ever-widening margin since 2012.  They have to fall asleep to lose those games.  

Maybe one day they'll have such a long streak against us that they don't take us seriously anymore.  But I doubt it.  Saban has adopted Spurrier's schtick, he's decided that LSU is his game every year to make a statement.    

I think there's a 50% chance Ensminger moves on after this year, and Orgeron will try to get another hot name like Canada, hopefully this time one who's not a raging dick and the staff can get along with.  Yay.  That means we'll lose 21-17 instead of 29-0.  

LSU is not going to beat Alabama again until they can close the talent gap.  That's not happening as long as Saban is the coach there.  

Online Cincydawg

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #61 on: November 08, 2018, 12:00:11 PM »
The way to beat Alabama, IMHO:

1.  Have a mobile QB who throws accurately, and probably plays out of his mind that day;
2.  Get turnovers and/or special teams points;
3.  Be able to somewhat match up in the lines;
4.  Get more turnovers.

There are other ways, like how Ohio State managed it, but that is very rare, and requires a lot of talent as well.

The thing is, having all of those arrive on the same day is unlikely.

Online OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #62 on: November 08, 2018, 04:55:40 PM »
Suggesting Alabama is more likely to 'sleep' in the Iron Bowl is absurd.  
A - it's their biggest rival
B - it's at the end of the season, with all of their goals right in front of them



That's why I specified AU...they're not secondary to Bama compared to anyone else.
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Online OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #63 on: November 08, 2018, 04:56:38 PM »
Here, maybe this will help you get out of defensive mode:


Florida has lost 6 straight to Alabama.  A program like Florida shouldn't lost 6 straight to anybody.
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Online Cincydawg

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #64 on: November 09, 2018, 08:54:05 AM »
Do "rivalry games" end in upsets (or not covering) more often than regular games?

Maybe our memories think they do and they don't.  I'd expect the odds to shift if there was such a trend in the past.

I know Tech beats UGA on occasion in upsets, but you expect that to happen statistically.


Online rolltidefan

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #65 on: November 09, 2018, 09:33:07 AM »
Do "rivalry games" end in upsets (or not covering) more often than regular games?

Maybe our memories think they do and they don't.  I'd expect the odds to shift if there was such a trend in the past.

I know Tech beats UGA on occasion in upsets, but you expect that to happen statistically.


that sounds like a good question for @ftbobs if he's around

Online Drew4UTk

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #66 on: November 09, 2018, 12:45:30 PM »
did anyone watch NCST lose to WF last night? 

NCST has the superior team in every aspect, and they had home field advantage.  they lost in the last :30 of the game.  

WF plays them competitively regularly. it's a weird thing w/o explanation.  

Bama/Auburn is like this, too.  

This is one of the game's nuances that fascinates me. 

as a for instance, I expect FSU- as terrible as they are this season- to give ND a run for their money and possibly win.  ND is sitting players to keep them healthy, and FSU- though they haven't demonstrated any pulse this season, is only one or two moves from putting it back together.... like any team in such a condition they will flare and fizzle out, flare and simmer, flare and fire, and then just maintain a constant flare.... after the ND slight they have to be motivated to play... after being a laughing stock they have to be angry... I suggest they 'flare' this weekend.  

Auburn flares against bama. they usually play at the top of their game in that game.  it's NOT that Bama is caught off-guard, it's because for that game they are matched physically... not completely matched, but close enough that Auburn can await something weird to happen and capitalize on it.  this is the same with Clemson.  Clemson can play at the top of their game for one outing and play against anyone in the nation- however, if they played in the SEC and against the likes of Bama every season, they'd also- imHo - have a record similar to that of Florida or LSU against them.   

Online Cincydawg

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #67 on: November 09, 2018, 01:11:17 PM »
It would be interesting to compile a list of teams that, while underdogs, tend to play other teams very tough.

The two Mississippi teams have played Alabama and Florida tough even when decided dogs.

South Carolina has done that to UGA, but I see that as an SoS factor.  Florida has also done that to UGA but they were of course often favored, not always.

Online OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #68 on: November 11, 2018, 01:30:15 PM »
Sunday Afternoon Updated for Nov 4:

1 - Alabama
2 - Georgia
3 - LSU
4 - Kentucky
5 - Miss State
6 - Florida
7 - Texas A&M
8 - South Carolina
9 - Missouri
10 - Auburn
11 - Ole Miss
12 - Vanderbilt
13 - Tennessee
14 - Arkansas


From last week's ranking, this week's results:
1 beat 5
2 beat 10
3 beat 14
4 lost to 13
6 beat 8
7 beat 11
9 beat 12
Pretty good rankings, only one upset, and it was an upset.
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Online OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #69 on: November 11, 2018, 01:32:17 PM »
Sunday Morning 1-14 for Nov 11:
1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. LSU
4. Florida
5. Kentucky
6. Miss State
7. Texas A&M
8. Auubrn
9. Missouri
10. South Carolina
11. Tennessee
12. Ole Miss
13. Vanderbilt
14. Arkansas
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Online Drew4UTk

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #70 on: November 11, 2018, 01:51:43 PM »
It wasnt an upset. It was the same team doing the same thing, this time with an OLine that stood up.  UT is an OLine away from competing with anyone in the East except possibly UGA.... But... If a frog had wings it wouldnt bump its ass on the rocks, right? 

Online OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #71 on: November 11, 2018, 04:00:02 PM »
"It wasn't an upset" he says.


Kentucky -6
@ Tennessee
--------------------------------------------

Kentucky #11
Tennessee Unranked




I guess every team that wins is better than every team it beats.  Thank you for the correction.  
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Online Cincydawg

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #72 on: November 11, 2018, 04:02:17 PM »
Pruitt has his work cut out for him recruiting, I think.  This won't get fixed next year.  I don't know what fans expect, but a bowl game next year would be a good second step.  Then it remains to be seen if there is an upper limit of 9-10 wins in a great year.

Getting some Big Uglies has to be a priority, and they can take 2-3 years to really meld and work well, and then you need depth.


Online bamajoe

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #73 on: November 11, 2018, 04:06:21 PM »
Move Kentucky down to about 12 and Mississippi State up to four and you will be fairly accurate. This is not anywhere near the Kentucky team that beat Florida and Mississippi State.

Online Cincydawg

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #74 on: November 11, 2018, 04:31:43 PM »
I suspected UK would be in trouble yesterday.  They invested all their emotional capital in the UGA game and simply could not gather themselves.

The East is a bunch of mediocre teams that can beat each other, and probably Vandy is not one of them, but the Vols may be right now after their thrilling win against Charlotte.

OK, maybe one team in the East is decent.  They are undefeated against the East for two years running now, which is a something.

UMass.  Well, OK, but duh.

Then Tech, who can be quirky enough to beat us in Athens.

Online OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #75 on: November 11, 2018, 04:44:39 PM »
Yes but as stated in post #1, it’s half resume, half eye test.
Move Kentucky down to about 12 and Mississippi State up to four and you will be fairly accurate. This is not anywhere near the Kentucky team that beat Florida and Mississippi State.
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Offline Gigem

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #76 on: November 12, 2018, 12:40:36 AM »
Kentucky is way too high.  Should be about 5 spots down.  

Online OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #77 on: November 12, 2018, 01:42:34 AM »
Does no one READ the posts?
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Offline Gigem

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #78 on: November 12, 2018, 09:11:02 AM »
Does skimming count?  

UK is truly a bit of a head scratcher. They’ve got some real quality wins mixed in with some quality losses. 

At the end of the day it’s somewhat a subjective analysis. 

Online Cincydawg

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #79 on: November 12, 2018, 10:11:28 AM »
Obviously, football games are not "simple" in the sense that the better team always wins.  A team can look very good and then not good in successive games, leaving us to ponder how good they are in some absolute.  Syllogism doesn't work.  Florida beat LSU, albeit at home, and then LSU made UGA look inept, albeit on the road, and then UGA beat Florida fairly convincingly.

An individual game is subject to myriad perturbations, penalties, dropped passes, missed assignments, chance happenings, and the culmination of thee can be an upset, but not usually, but we only play once.  Maybe UGA would beat LSU 65 times out of 100, but that leaves 35 times and that happened.

Online MikeDeTiger

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #80 on: November 12, 2018, 11:08:01 AM »
Suggesting Alabama is more likely to 'sleep' in the Iron Bowl is absurd.  
A - it's their biggest rival
B - it's at the end of the season, with all of their goals right in front of them



That's why I specified AU...they're not secondary to Bama compared to anyone else.
Great insight.  Got anything other than anecdotal evidence and "I said so" to substantiate that?  
There's what you say, and what Nick Saban has said, more than once.  I also have eyes.  
Believe whatever you want.  It doesn't matter, and it's unproductive talking about it.  

Online Drew4UTk

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #81 on: November 13, 2018, 08:19:50 AM »
that's right, @OrangeAfroMan , it WASN'T an upset.  

first off, it was in Neyland. How many consecutive wins in that stadium would determine dominance in your opinion?  As spoken above in regards to the WF vs NCST game, there is usually competition in this game.  Up until a horrific accident involving drunken driving and impacting UK's roster several years back, it was the beer barrel battle and cross border rivalry.  even when UT was at the top of their game, UK played them competitively (however losing a very lopsided ratio).  

you point to odds makers and your hatred of UT has blinded you so you swallow whatever they say negative about the Vols.  Most Vols fans I know knew three things you ignored:  1) it's Neyland and UK along with whatever intangible barrier they can't overcome was in full display  2) whether you want to admit it or even acknowledge it, UT is playing better- and their OL held up Saturday and 3) UK left it on the field the week prior, and likely thought this one a walk through.

so... if you want to define 'upset' by what odds-makers draw, or what talking heads on the tube communicate, go ahead... odds-makers could care less about who is better or worse quality wise- the almighty dollar drives the line.  That almighty dollar is handled by betters that take direction from talking heads... talking heads obviously didn't know a lot about this game, and influenced the line.  analytical folks such as yourself have a hard time parsing whatever the intangible is that allows teams like Bama/Auburn, tOSU/UM, and in this case UT/UK  to break up their pretty expectations and do so regularly.  


Online Cincydawg

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #82 on: November 13, 2018, 12:15:14 PM »
I expected UK to lose, but I consider it technically to be an upset, simply because of the posted odds.

Some upsets I expect, sometimes they even happen.

Online OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #83 on: November 13, 2018, 12:41:26 PM »
Picking the underdog to win isn’t a great way to beat Vegas, but by all means, have at it.
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Online Drew4UTk

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #84 on: November 13, 2018, 02:21:58 PM »
for the record, Mizzou is a problem for UT this weekend coming.  they've no strange barrier to penetrate competing in neyland, and they've shown little intimidation from anyone.  even with UT playing a lot better than they have, Mizzou should come out with the win.... the truth is i don't think they will.  i think UT is playing with absolute reckless abandon right now and i think UT takes them down................... but Mizzou should rightfully be favored.  THIS would be an upset.  UK wasn't in my opinion.  Vandy may even be considered an upset if UT beats them- and that game could go either way too... 

i can't agree that the UK game was an upset.  it was pretty evident to UT fans, anyway, and that was likely why the line closed at six- the UT base dragging it down.  

the game against Charlotte was evident to a close observer UT trying to brute force exact their will- which isn't something the team is capable of right now... as it is, going for broke IS something they can do.  When Pruitt has them putting it all out there with no hobbles anchoring them to a post, and the team realizes they can compete simply by playing all out and without fear- the tides will change, and they've already started.  UT will beat either Mizzou or Vandy and bowl this year.  They may be able to beat both......... and both may be considered upsets.   

Online OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #85 on: November 13, 2018, 04:57:46 PM »
Actually from what I've read, the UK/UT line started at 3.5 and went up to 6.  
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Online Cincydawg

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #86 on: November 14, 2018, 07:29:13 AM »
Picking the underdog to win isn’t a great way to beat Vegas, but by all means, have at it.
My aim is to entertain and generate discussion, not "beat Vegas".  I understand probability fairly well.
Sometimes I have a feeling for an upset, and occasionally it's right.  Very occasionally, in general, about in line with statistics.
But this one seemed like an obvious call, UK put all they had on the field against UGA and lost and had nothing in the tank.

Online Drew4UTk

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #87 on: November 14, 2018, 07:42:24 AM »
Actually from what I've read, the UK/UT line started at 3.5 and went up to 6.  
it really started at zero, if you want to split hairs- early betting and factoring home field pushed it to 3.5.  people i guess would be surprised to find that most if not all games start even on the lines- and move quickly and accordingly based on algorithms secured through previous activity... and focused on what will draw cash in.  the entire half point concept is hedging favoring the house... 

Online Cincydawg

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #88 on: November 14, 2018, 07:46:52 AM »
So, Tennessee now has wins over Auburn and Kentucky, two mid to upper tier SEC teams.  I'll call them mid-tier, because there seems to be a lot of them this year.

But does that suggest the Vols are also mid tier late in the year?  Maybe.

Recruiting will be key for Pruitt now.  Can he attract enough key players to get above the 8 win mark in 2-3-4 years?  We'll see.

Online Drew4UTk

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #89 on: November 14, 2018, 08:20:35 AM »
admiring nuances is where there is shine talking about UT.  

standing by to take incoming fire, UT didn't win a single SEC game last season- which is just beyond ridiculous and indicative of where the program was at... nothing happened roster wise over the off season that 'should' have improved that.  

at the start of this season they faced the single toughest schedule of any P5 team, facing WVU, Florida, Georgia, Auburn, Bama, USCe, and UK- while Mizzou is nothing to sneeze at... yeah, UTEP, ETSU, and Charlotte were cupcakes, but the run they faced, on paper, was the toughest... 

they played WVU decent early but fell apart.  They obviously lost 'no contest' to UF, UGA, Bama, but they played USCe to the wire and beat both UK and Auburn.  This doesn't sound like a 'great' achievement, but compared to where they were, it kinda is... they now have either/both Mizzou and Vandy in their way keeping them from bowling.  I think they will in fact bowl, which is HUGE compared to the condition they were in just last season.  

Are they 'middle tier'?  I don't know, but i do know they are better than they were- and i see a melding/gelling taking place on the team that i've not seen since Fulmer (though there was a moment when AJ was there under Butch they were playing 'above their station').  In my observation, the 'team' playing as such is the principle ingredient to describe a great team.  I am not suggesting by any measure they are 'great'- that would be comical- but i DO suggest the precursors are appearing. 

 

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