Sunday Morning 1-14

[bamajoe]

That Ole Miss game that Alabama lost was a super fluke. To start with for some reason Saban started Cooper Bateman for the only time in his career and he played ineffectively for most of the first half before changing to Jake Coker who almost pulled the game out.   It didn't help that Ole Miss was +5 in the turnover department and had a long td that bounced off a Bama defender's helmet. It was a perfect storm.

[OrangeAfroMan]

But it works for other teams in either division:
Tennessee shouldn't have lost 11 in a row to Florida

If Auburn can beat Bama 3 out of 8 years, LSU can, too.  

[Cincydawg]

Auburn has had more of an offensive threat than LSU, in the main.  If you don't have at least a half decent offense and mobile QB, you won't beat Bama.  Every team that beats Bama is dangerous on offense, and most have a mobile QB.

[bamajoe]

Also Auburn has not beaten Alabama 3 times in 8 years. 

[MikeDeTiger]

But it works for other teams in either division:
Tennessee shouldn't have lost 11 in a row to Florida

If Auburn can beat Bama 3 out of 8 years, LSU can, too.  

You're not listening.

EVERY game Alabama loses is an upset.  When they lose, somebody didn't do their job.  
Upsets are far, far less likely to happen when a team goes to work with bullets in their eyes all week.  You don't have to believe it, but it's true.  Alabama is capable of falling asleep against Auburn, and they will not against LSU.  Auburn happens to have an offensive mind who makes it more likely to pull the upset when Alabama does take a nap, and LSU does not.  But that doesn't matter because Alabama ain't napping first week of November.  

The last Auburn team that "should" have beaten Alabama was 2010, and they did.  So did LSU.  Alabama has been a better team than LSU, Auburn, Ole Miss by an ever-widening margin since 2012.  They have to fall asleep to lose those games.  

Maybe one day they'll have such a long streak against us that they don't take us seriously anymore.  But I doubt it.  Saban has adopted Spurrier's schtick, he's decided that LSU is his game every year to make a statement.    

I think there's a 50% chance Ensminger moves on after this year, and Orgeron will try to get another hot name like Canada, hopefully this time one who's not a raging dick and the staff can get along with.  Yay.  That means we'll lose 21-17 instead of 29-0.  

LSU is not going to beat Alabama again until they can close the talent gap.  That's not happening as long as Saban is the coach there.  

[Cincydawg]

The way to beat Alabama, IMHO:

1.  Have a mobile QB who throws accurately, and probably plays out of his mind that day;
2.  Get turnovers and/or special teams points;
3.  Be able to somewhat match up in the lines;
4.  Get more turnovers.

There are other ways, like how Ohio State managed it, but that is very rare, and requires a lot of talent as well.

The thing is, having all of those arrive on the same day is unlikely.

[OrangeAfroMan]

Suggesting Alabama is more likely to 'sleep' in the Iron Bowl is absurd.  
A - it's their biggest rival
B - it's at the end of the season, with all of their goals right in front of them



That's why I specified AU...they're not secondary to Bama compared to anyone else.

[OrangeAfroMan]

Here, maybe this will help you get out of defensive mode:


Florida has lost 6 straight to Alabama.  A program like Florida shouldn't lost 6 straight to anybody.

[Cincydawg]

Do "rivalry games" end in upsets (or not covering) more often than regular games?

Maybe our memories think they do and they don't.  I'd expect the odds to shift if there was such a trend in the past.

I know Tech beats UGA on occasion in upsets, but you expect that to happen statistically.

[rolltidefan]

Do "rivalry games" end in upsets (or not covering) more often than regular games?

Maybe our memories think they do and they don't.  I'd expect the odds to shift if there was such a trend in the past.

I know Tech beats UGA on occasion in upsets, but you expect that to happen statistically.

that sounds like a good question for @ftbobs if he's around

[Drew4UTk]

did anyone watch NCST lose to WF last night? 

NCST has the superior team in every aspect, and they had home field advantage.  they lost in the last :30 of the game.  

WF plays them competitively regularly. it's a weird thing w/o explanation.  

Bama/Auburn is like this, too.  

This is one of the game's nuances that fascinates me. 

as a for instance, I expect FSU- as terrible as they are this season- to give ND a run for their money and possibly win.  ND is sitting players to keep them healthy, and FSU- though they haven't demonstrated any pulse this season, is only one or two moves from putting it back together.... like any team in such a condition they will flare and fizzle out, flare and simmer, flare and fire, and then just maintain a constant flare.... after the ND slight they have to be motivated to play... after being a laughing stock they have to be angry... I suggest they 'flare' this weekend.  

Auburn flares against bama. they usually play at the top of their game in that game.  it's NOT that Bama is caught off-guard, it's because for that game they are matched physically... not completely matched, but close enough that Auburn can await something weird to happen and capitalize on it.  this is the same with Clemson.  Clemson can play at the top of their game for one outing and play against anyone in the nation- however, if they played in the SEC and against the likes of Bama every season, they'd also- imHo - have a record similar to that of Florida or LSU against them.   

[Cincydawg]

It would be interesting to compile a list of teams that, while underdogs, tend to play other teams very tough.

The two Mississippi teams have played Alabama and Florida tough even when decided dogs.

South Carolina has done that to UGA, but I see that as an SoS factor.  Florida has also done that to UGA but they were of course often favored, not always.

[OrangeAfroMan]

Sunday Afternoon Updated for Nov 4:

1 - Alabama
2 - Georgia
3 - LSU
4 - Kentucky
5 - Miss State
6 - Florida
7 - Texas A&M
8 - South Carolina
9 - Missouri
10 - Auburn
11 - Ole Miss
12 - Vanderbilt
13 - Tennessee
14 - Arkansas

From last week's ranking, this week's results:
1 beat 5
2 beat 10
3 beat 14
4 lost to 13
6 beat 8
7 beat 11
9 beat 12
Pretty good rankings, only one upset, and it was an upset.

[OrangeAfroMan]

Sunday Morning 1-14 for Nov 11:
1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. LSU
4. Florida
5. Kentucky
6. Miss State
7. Texas A&M
8. Auubrn
9. Missouri
10. South Carolina
11. Tennessee
12. Ole Miss
13. Vanderbilt
14. Arkansas