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Author Topic: Sunday Morning 1-14  (Read 2885 times)

Online OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #30 on: November 04, 2018, 08:12:44 PM »
We're deep enough into the season where who beat who head-to-head isn't much of a clarifier anymore.  Georgia would have played a better game vs Bama than LSU did.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous."

Online bamajoe

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #31 on: November 05, 2018, 07:21:39 AM »
I think Kentucky is too high and Auburn too low. I believe all the teams you consider mediocre are good teams in a league where Alabama and Georgia are a step above the rest. I think it is a very strong league top to bottom.

Bama
Georgia
LSU
MSU
Auburn
A&M
Missouri
Florida
Kentucky
South Carolina
Ole Miss
Vandy

Online Cincydawg

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #32 on: November 05, 2018, 07:41:26 AM »
The only real purpose I can think of in ranking teams is "who would beat who", but then you get the obvious issue.

I'd opine any of the 4-10 teams could beat each other fairly often.

11-14 would rarenly beat 4-10.  4-10 would rarely beat 1-3.


Offline MikeDeTiger

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #33 on: November 05, 2018, 09:44:02 AM »
Granted I did not watch Florida's game, so I'm flying blind here, but I still think Florida, Georgia and LSU are in some sort of general mish-mash together.  I'm not sure there's a lot of meaningful distinction between them, except that UGA is more balanced, having some offense to go with their defense.  Florida's game against UGA did not go well, UGA's game with LSU did not go well, and LSU's game with UF, despite the score, didn't go all that well.  You put these teams in a bag, pick two, play the games again, and there's no telling what kind of game you'll get.  

Online Cincydawg

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #34 on: November 05, 2018, 09:52:00 AM »
The Dawgs seem to be finding themselves a bit of late.  Earlier in the year I saw all sorts of problems, and still see a major issue with third and short for some reason.  The OL was dinged with injuries at UK and the new kids came in and did well.  UK statistically had a formidable defense especially against the run.  I was seeing holes in that game.

Swift also seems recovered from a nagging hamstring injury and is a weapon again.  Holyfield was getting most of the snaps because Swift had been not so swift.  Holyfield is a load to bring down, so they are kind of like Chubb and Michel.  And they will be back, hopefully with a healthy Smith next year.  This team is probably one year away because of the youth.  


Offline MikeDeTiger

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #35 on: November 05, 2018, 09:56:17 AM »
"Swift" is just such a great name for a running back.  

Offline ALA2262

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #36 on: November 05, 2018, 10:22:36 AM »
The Dawgs seem to be finding themselves a bit of late.  Earlier in the year I saw all sorts of problems, and still see a major issue with third and short for some reason.  The OL was dinged with injuries at UK and the new kids came in and did well.  UK statistically had a formidable defense especially against the run.  I was seeing holes in that game.

Swift also seems recovered from a nagging hamstring injury and is a weapon again.  Holyfield was getting most of the snaps because Swift had been not so swift.  Holyfield is a load to bring down, so they are kind of like Chubb and Michel.  And they will be back, hopefully with a healthy Smith next year.  This team is probably one year away because of the youth.  


Bama will be better in 2019 than 2018 for the same reason. They will return at least 15 of the two-deep on both sides of the ball.

Online Cincydawg

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #37 on: November 05, 2018, 10:29:18 AM »
https://uga.rivals.com/news/2016-depth-chart-2

The Dawgs started with one senior on offense, a very good one (center), 4 seniors on defense.  

Second string has 4 seniors on offense, but they have been usurped, and 3 on defense and one GR.  Three of those guys are quite good though.

Offline rolltidefan

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #38 on: November 05, 2018, 03:39:15 PM »
i'm not sure au showed they're still a good as much as aTm showed, despite them having a new coach, they still have the ability to chock a game in nov. classic aggies move to keep from having to play anyone in early december.

Online OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #39 on: November 05, 2018, 05:12:47 PM »
Granted I did not watch Florida's game, so I'm flying blind here, but I still think Florida, Georgia and LSU are in some sort of general mish-mash together.  I'm not sure there's a lot of meaningful distinction between them, except that UGA is more balanced, having some offense to go with their defense.  Florida's game against UGA did not go well, UGA's game with LSU did not go well, and LSU's game with UF, despite the score, didn't go all that well.  You put these teams in a bag, pick two, play the games again, and there's no telling what kind of game you'll get.  

No no no, Florida is below the other two.  The defense went from good to crap and has been crap for 3 games straight.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous."

Offline MikeDeTiger

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #40 on: November 05, 2018, 07:00:57 PM »
What happened?  Injuries?  

And that still maybe just puts UF in the same boat as LSU, pretty decent defense, good ST, and crap, crap offense.  Which is actually getting worse as the season progresses.  Which, my older friends tell me was a hallmark of Ensminger offenses 20 years ago, so.....thanks, O.  Got anymore friends you'd like to promote?

Online OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #41 on: November 05, 2018, 07:43:49 PM »
No, we got Henderson (CB) and our safety back.  It was basically apathy.  Can get jacked up for LSU, but lose interest/passion vs Mizzou.  Basically a hangover from no longer able to win the East after the loss to UGA.

We're not good enough to just show up.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous."

Online Cincydawg

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #42 on: November 06, 2018, 08:07:42 AM »
I still wonder about the motivation thing.  They only get to play 13 or so games each season and work hard to get there.  How can a player not be "up" for any of them?  And sometimes a player can be too "up" at least early in a game and make mistakes as a result.

Maybe they slack off in game prep when the a season goes south and maybe that is sufficient to turn one L into Two.


Offline MikeDeTiger

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #43 on: November 06, 2018, 09:47:05 AM »
It's definitely a thing.  LSU had a "post-Bama" problem since 2012.  It's a main reason why Les was ultimately fired.  Popular narrative is he couldn't beat Alabama anymore, but that's not true.  His time ran out because his team kept losing to Arkansas and Ole Miss after Alabama when they lost interest in the season.  

LSU fans have a HUGE mental thing about Bama these days, and I know for sure it it's not lost on the players.  It's a toxic culture, but these days LSU's seasons are considered failures when they can't get over that hump.

O was considered in part because during his interim 8 games, his team bounced back from the Alabama loss and demolished the weak remaining teams, something LSU hadn't done in years.  We'll see if he can keep it up.  

There's plenty other teams/years where you can see the motivation leave them.  It's palpable.  

Online Cincydawg

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #44 on: November 06, 2018, 10:39:37 AM »
Dawg fans have a huge thing about Bama also for some reason.  Same with Florida.  

And to a lesser degree USCe, Auburn, Tennessee, and LSU.

Online OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #45 on: November 06, 2018, 01:38:29 PM »
Programs like LSU aren't supposed to lose 8 straight to anybody.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous."

Offline MikeDeTiger

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #46 on: November 06, 2018, 01:50:56 PM »
Programs like LSU aren't supposed to lose 8 straight to anybody.
Based on what?  
The fact Alabama spends more $ on their football program than LSU's entire athletic department budget?  Based on their 7 straight #1 recruiting classes, which created a wide talent gap even between the LSU's of the world?  
When you recruit better and your second team is still on par with an opponent's first team, and it's the one game of the year they bother to bring it full speed, you'll lose a LOT of games.  Let me be clear, Alabama has lapped the field on nearly everyone, talent-wise.  Every single game they lose is an upset and it means somebody didn't do their job.  Whether it's a coach, a player, or whoever.  Ole Miss and Auburn tag them every now and again when Alabama falls asleep, but this is something they simply don't do against LSU, for various reasons I already outlined.  
LSU will not compete with Alabama again until the talent gap closes.  And that's not going to happen until Saban is gone one day.  Many of Louisiana's best players from their classes were playing for the Crimson Tide last Saturday.  That's not changing because when kids leave the state their mantra these days is "Alabama wins championships."  It's a self-perpetuating cycle at this point.  LSU won't win that game and play for the SEC or get in the playoffs until those kids stop leaving us, and furthermore until we can pull 5-stars out of every other state in the union.  If it sounds like a longshot, it is.  It ain't happening.  
LSU is a good, healthy program.  
They'll still lose however many more games Saban coaches in their division.   

Offline MikeDeTiger

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #47 on: November 06, 2018, 02:36:21 PM »
Just off the top of my head, their 3rd string RB is a 5* from California.  They convinced a 4* ESPN Top 100 DE to GREYSHIRT.  He was from Louisiana, I believe.  He stated in an interview "It's better to go to Alabama and sit on the bench than start at LSU."  That seems dumb in a vacuum, but he elaborated that he knew he'd become a better player at Alabama, and that they play for championships, and no matter what LSU had going for it, they couldn't give him that.  He didn't want our scholarship.  

No, LSU cannot compete with that, when guys with offers to 20 other schools would essentially rather be a walk-on for a year.  
« Last Edit: November 06, 2018, 02:38:18 PM by MikeDeTiger »

Online OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #48 on: November 06, 2018, 06:25:05 PM »
Yes, Alabama's roster the past 5 years has been the most talented of the scholarship-limit era.  But if Auburn, Ole Miss, and A&M can steal a win from the Tide here and there, LSU can as well.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous."

Online Cincydawg

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #49 on: November 07, 2018, 08:10:32 AM »
I think a Bama opponent has to have a versatile and capable offense to have a chance of winning.  LSU does not at this point.

Obviously, a good QB can make a huge difference for an otherwise decent team.  A mobile QB who can beat you with his arm is required to beat Bama, unless the opponent really does have the talent to match up in the lines and elsewhere.

For that reason, I think I would start Fields for the Dawgs against Bama, or at least play him a LOT more than they have done in the past and let him throw the ball.  Ohio State lined up toe to toe and beat Bama a few years back.  That is rare to see, and they had a big bruising QB of the Tebow ilk.  

Every so often a QB "gets hot" and makes those pinpoint throws and generally has the game of his life, and then Bama might lose or get tested.

Online bamajoe

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #50 on: November 07, 2018, 10:34:05 AM »
There is little chance that Georgia will start Fields. Apparently there is some question about whether or not he can pass. I think Georgia has placed their success or failure on Fromm.

Online Cincydawg

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #51 on: November 07, 2018, 11:40:59 AM »
Oh, I agree Fields won't start.  He can pass though, and he looks pretty good doing it.  I suspect he is not yet nearly as good at getting into the right play and reading coverages as is Fromm (which would make sense).

Fromm obviously is a competent passer, he's pretty accurate usually and has a decent arm and can zing the outs as well as all but the real rifles.

Fields has a stronger arm but likely is less accurate.

Online Drew4UTk

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #52 on: November 07, 2018, 12:07:15 PM »
to beat Bama you've got to have a team properly manned, and even with that is simply leveling the field- THEN you have to be able to punch them somewhere they're not ready for.  this is getting increasingly difficult.  they'll rule until Saban retires. 

Offline rolltidefan

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #53 on: November 07, 2018, 12:16:45 PM »
Based on what?  
The fact Alabama spends more $ on their football program than LSU's entire athletic department budget? 
not sure if you're exaggerating to prove a point, just wanted to point out that this is incorrect.
bama, in 2017, expended 62.3 million on football, 158.7m in total. they had 174.3m i revenue, and 15.6 profit for the whole athletic dept. for football, revenue was 108.2m and profit 45.9m.
lsu, in 2017, had 147m in revenue for whole ath dept and 16m in profits. the football program had 86.2m in revenue, 30.1m in expenses for 56.1m in profit.
there's a significant diff in rev/exp in football between the 2, but not overall ad budget.

Offline MikeDeTiger

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #54 on: November 07, 2018, 02:46:38 PM »
Yes, proving a point.  That's over twice as much money spent. 

Offline MikeDeTiger

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #55 on: November 07, 2018, 02:56:01 PM »
Yes, Alabama's roster the past 5 years has been the most talented of the scholarship-limit era.  But if Auburn, Ole Miss, and A&M can steal a win from the Tide here and there, LSU can as well.
I imagine that's pretty easy to say as a fan of a team in division that never plays them.
You said it yourself, they steal one.  Alabama falls asleep, it happens, can't make 18-22 year old kids get their head out of their ass all the time.  
And for various stated reasons, Alabama is not going to fall asleep against LSU.  Their coach has said it multiple times.  Their players have said it multiple times.  Anyone watching the games can see it.  Alabama is going to bring it's A game first week of November.  
Now either of us can point to 2012 and 2014 and say that LSU should have won either or both of those games, and maybe so.  For a handful of reasons, they did not.  But that was back when the talent discrepancy wasn't so severe, and that's reflected by win totals.  
Pointing out how Ole Miss won the craziest flukiest games imaginable does nothing to change the fact that they have 5* on their two and three deep.  You're effectively saying a program like Florida should not lose that many games to them, but were your team in their division and they considered the Gators a threat, Florida wouldn't have won any games against them lately either.  

Online bamajoe

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #56 on: November 07, 2018, 03:53:27 PM »
That Ole Miss game that Alabama lost was a super fluke. To start with for some reason Saban started Cooper Bateman for the only time in his career and he played ineffectively for most of the first half before changing to Jake Coker who almost pulled the game out.   It didn't help that Ole Miss was +5 in the turnover department and had a long td that bounced off a Bama defender's helmet. It was a perfect storm.

Online OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #57 on: November 08, 2018, 12:34:53 AM »
But it works for other teams in either division:
Tennessee shouldn't have lost 11 in a row to Florida

If Auburn can beat Bama 3 out of 8 years, LSU can, too.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous."

Online Cincydawg

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #58 on: November 08, 2018, 08:04:34 AM »
Auburn has had more of an offensive threat than LSU, in the main.  If you don't have at least a half decent offense and mobile QB, you won't beat Bama.  Every team that beats Bama is dangerous on offense, and most have a mobile QB.

Online bamajoe

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Re: Sunday Morning 1-14
« Reply #59 on: November 08, 2018, 10:14:55 AM »
Also Auburn has not beaten Alabama 3 times in 8 years. 

 

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