ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions

[ELA]

If Michigan finishes 8-4, fans will be riotous. Not that Harbaugh would be on the hot seat, but for the first time most fans would feel he's underachieved. Last year, it made sense. They were bar none the youngest in the nation, predicted to finish 9-3, and then lost their top 2 quarterbacks to injury. In that setting, finishing with 8 wins was painful but made every kind of sense.
Not this season.

If you notice, I think I wound up almost universally picking the home team to win where conference top 7 teams played.  Considering I had the entire top 7 ranked between #3 and #19 in my countdown, that makes sense.  I think Michigan will be quite good, I think I had them #11.  But they also play 6 teams I have in my top 19, 4 of which are on the road.  Michigan has lost 16 straight games to ranked teams on the road, dating back 12 years, and now they have 4 in the same year.  There aren't a ton of teams I would pick to go better than about 9-3 at best against that schedule.

[Anonymous Coward]

I know. My hidden emphasis was that NU game. No matter its location or the Cats' quality, Harbaugh can't be comfortable if he loses it. And he can be comfortable if he hits 9 wins, with a bowl chance at 10. I guess that is where I see the line being drawn, and I see it as big bold and obvious.

[ELA]

November 25 Poll

• Alabama (12-0)
• Oklahoma (12-0)
• Clemson (11-1)
• South Carolina (11-1)
• Georgia (11-1)
• Virginia Tech (11-1)
• PENN STATE (11-1)
• MICHIGAN STATE (10-2)
• OHIO STATE (10-2)
• Central Florida (12-0)
• IOWA (11-1)
• Mississippi State (10-2)
• Miami (10-2)
• Washington (10-2)
• NC State (10-2)
• Florida State (9-3)
• Auburn (9-3)
• Notre Dame (9-3)
• WISCONSIN (9-3)
• Utah (10-2)
• USC (9-3)
• TCU (9-3)
• Oklahoma State (9-3)
• Washington State (9-3)
• Arizona (9-3)

[ELA]

I know. My hidden emphasis was that NU game. No matter its location or the Cats' quality, Harbaugh can't be comfortable if he loses it. And he can be comfortable if he hits 9 wins, with a bowl chance at 10. I guess that is where I see the line being drawn, and I see it as big bold and obvious.

I'm quite a bit higher than most on both Iowa and Northwestern.  If Northwestern is what the consensus on them is, I agree that's a game Michigan *should* win.  I also know MSU will never be OSU to UM, but I do know how much they hate to lose that one.  So while MSU eternally has the intangible advantage in that game, I keep waiting for the one UM performance that tells me they are fed up and want to restore some order.  That mentality probably lasts one year, but I keep expecting *this* to be that year, and I've yet to see it.  Maybe it isn't there.
Anything worse than 6-0 in the remaining 6 games I'd find shocking, but then again last year I said that while 9-3 on paper seemed logical, losing any of those 9 would be shocking, far more than winning one of the 3, therefore 10-2 seemed more likely to me than 9-3, and then 8-4 happened.  But I'll say again that losing any of the other 6 would be shocking, but going any better than 3-3 in the remaining 6 seems like a very tall task.  In the end 8-4 or 9-3 just appears to be treading water to me.  10-2 or better IMO would be a strong statement, and anything worse than 8-4 would be a disaster in the year that everyone had been pointing to for two years.

[Anonymous Coward]

I still don't know how much we learn in Week 1 if Michigan wins. Obviously, 9-3 would then seem to become the floor. But what if Wimbush is just plain bad (in terms of well roundedness)?

[ELA]

I still don't know how much we learn in Week 1 if Michigan wins. Obviously, 9-3 would then seem to become the floor. But what if Wimbush is just plain bad (in terms of well roundedness)?

No matter how good or bad Notre Dame may be, winning an early season night game in South Bend is a generally a good sign (checks MSU 2016 schedule and slinks back)

[medinabuckeye1]

I still don't know how much we learn in Week 1 if Michigan wins. Obviously, 9-3 would then seem to become the floor. But what if Wimbush is just plain bad (in terms of well roundedness)?

IMHO, we NEVER know how much we learn from not just week 1, but all early season games for several reasons.  For one thing, ELA's 2016 example is a great one.  MSU was coming off of a 12-2 season with a CFP appearance while ND was coming off of a 10-3 season and that game looked to be HUGE.  Looking back on it at the end of the season it was a pretty much meaningless contest between teams that finished 4-8 and 3-9.  
Alabama is preseason #1 in both polls and basically everyone assumes that they will be great again.  Their first game is against an unranked Louisville team.  Now assume that Louisville wins or even just the Louisville pushes Bama to the brink before losing.  We don't know what we have learned because there are at least three possibilities:

• Bama is nowhere near as good as we expected, or
• Louisville is MUCH better than we expected, or
• This was just one of those fluke things that happen every year and not really representative of the strength of either Bama or Louisville.  

The same thing is true of preseason #14/14 Michigan's trip to preseason #12/11 Notre Dame.  Generically I would expect the #12/11 team to win a home game against the #14/14 team in a relatively close game but if #14/14 wins a close game or if either team blows the other out the same possibilities exist as in my Bama/Louisville example above.  

[ELA]

WEEK 14
Friday, November 30

• #14 Washington d. #20 Utah

• Northern Illinois d. Buffalo

Saturday, December 1
ESPN College Gameday, live from Atlanta, GA
#1 Alabama 31, #4 South Carolina 17

• #2 Oklahoma d. #22 TCU
• #3 Clemson d. #6 Virginia Tech
• #7 PENN STATE d. #11 IOWA
• #10 Central Florida d. Tulane

• Appalachian State d. Arkansas State
• Boise State d. Fresno State
• Florida Atlantic d. North Texas

[ELA]

ACC
ATLANTIC

• Clemson (7-1) 12-1
• NC State (6-2) 10-2
• Florida State (6-2) 9-3
• Louisville (4-4) 7-5
• Boston College (3-5) 7-5
• Wake Forest (3-5) 6-6
• Syracuse (2-6) 5-7

COASTAL

• Virginia Tech (7-1) 11-2
• Miami (6-2) 10-2
• Duke (4-4) 7-5
• Georgia Tech (4-4) 7-5
• Virginia (2-6) 5-7
• Pittsburgh (2-6) 3-9
• North Carolina (0-8) 1-11

BIG TEN
EAST

• Penn State (8-1) 12-1
• Michigan State (8-1) 10-2
• Ohio State (7-2) 10-2
• Michigan (6-3) 8-4
• Maryland (3-6) 5-7
• Indiana (2-7) 5-7
• Rutgers (1-8) 4-8

WEST

• Iowa (8-1) 11-2
• Wisconsin (6-3) 9-3
• Northwestern (5-4) 8-4
• Purdue (5-4) 7-5
• Nebraska (2-7) 5-7
• Minnesota (2-7) 4-8
• Illinois (0-9) 2-10

BIG XII

• Oklahoma (9-0) 13-0
• TCU (7-2) 9-4
• Oklahoma State (6-3) 9-3
• Kansas State (5-4) 8-4
• Texas (5-4) 8-4
• Iowa State (5-4) 7-5
• West Virginia (4-5) 6-6
• Texas Tech (3-6) 6-6
• Baylor (1-8) 2-10
• Kansas (0-9) 1-11

PAC 12
NORTH

• Washington (8-1) 11-2
• Washington State (6-3) 9-3
• Stanford (6-3) 8-4
• Oregon (5-4) 8-4
• California (3-6) 6-6
• Oregon State (0-9) 1-11

SOUTH

• Utah (7-2) 10-3
• USC (7-2) 9-3
• Arizona (6-3) 9-3
• Arizona State (4-5) 6-6
• Colorado (2-7) 4-8
• UCLA (0-9) 1-11

SEC
EAST

• South Carolina (8-0) 11-2
• Georgia (7-1) 11-1
• Florida (5-3) 8-4
• Missouri (4-4) 7-5
• Kentucky (2-6) 5-7
• Vanderbilt (1-7) 4-8
• Tennessee (0-8) 3-9

WEST

• Alabama (8-0) 13-0
• Mississippi State (7-1) 10-2
• Auburn (5-3) 9-3
• Texas A&M (4-4) 7-5
• LSU (2-6) 5-7
• Ole Miss (2-6) 5-7
• Arkansas (1-7) 5-7

AMERICAN
EAST

• Central Florida (8-0) 13-0
• South Florida (7-1) 10-2
• Temple (4-4) 6-6
• East Carolina (1-7) 4-8
• Connecticut (1-7) 3-9
• Cincinnati (1-7) 2-10

WEST

• Tulane (6-2) 8-5
• Memphis (5-3) 8-4
• Navy (5-3) 8-4
• SMU (5-3) 6-6
• Houston (4-4) 6-6
• Tulsa (1-7) 3-9

CONFERENCE USA
EAST

• Florida Atlantic (7-1) 10-3
• Marshall (7-1) 8-4
• Middle Tennessee (6-2) 7-5
• Western Kentucky (3-5) 4-8
• FIU (2-6) 4-8
• Charlotte (2-6) 3-9
• Old Dominion (1-7) 2-10

WEST

• North Texas (7-1) 10-3
• UAB (6-2) 8-4
• Louisiana Tech (6-2) 7-5
• Southern Miss (4-4) 6-6
• Rice (3-5) 4-9
• UTSA (2-6) 4-8
• UTEP (0-8) 2-10

MAC
EAST

• Buffalo (6-2) 7-6
• Ohio (5-3) 8-4
• Miami(Ohio) (5-3) 7-5
• Akron (3-5) 4-8
• Kent State (2-6) 3-9
• Bowling Green (1-7) 2-10

WEST

• Northern Illinois (8-0) 10-3
• Toledo (7-1) 9-3
• Western Michigan (4-4) 6-6
• Central Michigan (3-5) 5-7
• Eastern Michigan (3-5) 4-8
• Ball State (1-7) 3-9

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN

• Boise State (8-0) 12-1
• Utah State (6-2) 8-4
• Wyoming (5-3) 7-5
• Air Force (3-5) 4-8
• Colorado State (3-5) 4-8
• New Mexico (0-8) 2-10

WEST

• Fresno State (7-1) 11-2
• San Diego State (6-2) 9-3
• UNLV (4-4) 6-6
• Nevada (3-5) 5-7
• San Jose State (3-5) 4-8
• Hawaii (0-8) 2-11

SUN BELT
EAST

• Appalachian State (7-1) 11-2
• Troy (6-2) 8-4
• Georgia State (4-4) 5-7
• Georgia Southern (2-6) 4-8
• Coastal Carolina (0-8) 2-10

WEST

• Arkansas State (8-0) 10-3
• South Alabama (4-4) 6-6
• UL Monroe (4-4) 5-7
• UL Lafayette (3-5) 5-7
• Texas State (2-6) 3-9

INDEPENDENTS

• Army (9-2)
• Notre Dame (9-3)
• NM State (6-6)
• Massachusetts (5-7)
• BYU (4-8)
• Liberty (3-9)

[Entropy]

ELA.. this is well thought out and nicely done.   Had to take a bit of time, so thank you.

All that said... =) .....  side bet on UNL making a bowl game this year?   I think they will.  

[rolltidefan]

so, in the 5th annual alabama invitational cfp, we have:

bama
ou
clemson
and...

uga? psu? taking bets now.

i'll take psu, cause if you don't make your own ccg how can you expect to make the national playoffs?

[rolltidefan]

ELA.. this is well thought out and nicely done.   Had to take a bit of time, so thank you.

All that said... =) .....  side bet on UNL making a bowl game this year?   I think they will.  

there are 40 bowl games (41 with the cfp) with 80 teams participating.
i counted 76 in ELA list that qualify (.500 or + record).
leaving 4 5-7 teams likely in. guaranteed all will be p5 teams. teams meeting that requirement are:

• cuse
• virginia
• maryland
• indiana
• nebraska
• kentucky
• lsu
• ole miss
• arkansas

i think there is some grad% rate they go by, so that would play a role. but if it weren't, my guess would be neb, lsu, ole miss and arky.

[FearlessF]

ELA.. this is well thought out and nicely done.   Had to take a bit of time, so thank you.

All that said... =) .....  side bet on UNL making a bowl game this year?   I think they will.  

Ent,
Praying you are correct and ELA is wrong.
I'm siding with you.  I'm guessing 6 wins.  but, I won't be betting the farm.

[ELA]

ELA.. this is well thought out and nicely done.   Had to take a bit of time, so thank you.

All that said... =) .....  side bet on UNL making a bowl game this year?   I think they will.  

Eh, I actually agree. I have them at 5-7, which as pointed out below, may already be enough.