ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions

[medinabuckeye1]

FWIW:
As noted above, from this point there are 128 relevant possible outcomes in the B1G-E, of those:

• 70 result in PSU going to the B1GCG (32 as outright champions)
• 46 result in MSU going to the B1GCG (32 as outright champions)
• 10 result in Michigan going to the B1GCG (2 as outright champions)
• 2 result in Ohio State going to the B1GCG (both as outright champions)

There are two potential 4-way ties:

Four way tie #1:

• PSU loses out, and
• MSU loses out, and
• Michigan beats Indiana but loses to Ohio State, and
• Ohio State loses to Maryland

In this case tOSU and Michigan are eliminated based on H2H2H2H records of 1-2 and Penn State wins based on their H2H win over MSU.  

Four way tie #2:

• PSU loses out, and
• MSU loses out, and
• Ohio State beats Maryland but loses to Michigan, and
• Michigan loses to Indiana

In this case tOSU is eliminated based on their 0-3 H2H2H2H record (the other three are all 2-1) then PSU is eliminated based on Divisional Record (because the two Michigan schools have non-divisional losses) and MSU wins based on their H2H win over Michigan.  

[rolltidefan]

USCe and Bama locked up seccg births. 

[ELA]

November 11 Poll

• Alabama (10-0)
• Oklahoma (10-0)
• South Carolina (10-0)
• Georgia (9-1)
• Virginia Tech (9-1)
• Clemson (9-1)
• PENN STATE (9-1)
• Miami (9-1)
• NC State (9-1)
• MICHIGAN STATE (8-2)
• OHIO STATE (8-2)
• Central Florida (10-0)
• IOWA (9-1)
• Notre Dame (8-2)
• Auburn (8-2)
• Mississippi State (8-2)
• Oklahoma State (8-2)
• Arizona (8-2)
• Washington (8-2)
• Florida State (7-3)
• WISCONSIN (7-3)
• Utah (8-2)
• Washington State (8-2)
• South Florida (9-1)
• MICHIGAN (7-3)

[Cincydawg]

USCe undefeated is entertaining as a prediction.

[ELA]

USCe undefeated is entertaining as a prediction.

I have them in my preseason top 20, but I think their early schedule breaks well.  I think the only game they play against another team I have in my top 40 is Georgia at home.  Get past that, and it's a pretty cake schedule.  They miss Alabama, Auburn, LSU, and Mississippi State as crossover opponents, and get Texas A&M at home.  But would I be surprised if they lose at home to Georgia, then go to Lexington and lose on the road there to be out of the race before October 1?  Not at all.
But they finish at Clemson, then in Atlanta against Alabama, so they'll be tested before this is over.  Will get to 11-0 at home against Chattanooga next weekend though.  Could set up the biggest Palmetto game in series history.  Currently both teams are sitting in the top 6.

[rolltidefan]

You got acc loaded with 4 top 10 teams all at 9-1. Plus FSU in top 25. 

[medinabuckeye1]

The way this is setting up the most important CG by far will be the B12.  Looking at the P5 from most to least important:

• B12:  I say most important because this is the only one, for now, where it looks like the result will determine whether or not the conference gets a team in the CFP.  Oklahoma is 10-0 and #2.  Their last two games are Kansas and WVU.  They should obviously beat Kansas and even if they lose to WVU they would probably still make the CFP with a B12CG win and an 12-1 record.  I say this one is the most important because the next highest and only other ranked B12 team is 8-2 OkSU and the Cowboys probably couldn't get in at 11-2.  
• SEC:  This one is next because it wouldn't be impossible for Bama to lose and get into the CFP anyway if they finish 12-0.  
• B1G:  I am calling this one the next most interesting because I think that the B1G is next closest to the CFP cut-line.  Obvioulsy if Penn State wins out to finish 12-1 they are in but what if Iowa loses to Nebraska then upsets the Nittany Lions?  They might be out at 11-2.  
• ACC:  This one is likely a win-and-in deal with all the other teams being out.  With four teams in the top-9 and all four with just one loss each the winner is almost certainly in the CFP, but obviously a 12-1 SECCG losing Bama would get in over an 11-2 or 11-1 ACC team.  
• PAC:  This one is the least important because I just can't see any PAC teams making the CFP in this scenario.  They have four ranked teams but they are all 8-2 and they are ranked 18, 19, 22, and 23.  They will most likely end up behind the other four P5 Champions and several non-Champions from other leagues.  

[Hawkinole]

This is fun to view. You have me drunk on possibility.
In this age some of the things that should be an advantage, or no longer.
Some P-5 teams with highly rated senior dominated lineups have players protecting their health for the next level. Iowa does not have a senior dominated lineup. I am not drinking ELA's Kool-Aid. My prediction for the Hawkeyes remains 8-9 wins. And, actually, with four down lineman suspended for Game 1 (from both OL and DL), Game #1, NIU, will be a big challenge. I think Iowa intends to challenge Wisconsin this year; but it remains to be seen how successfully. At least Iowa should develop some depth out of the NIU game.

[Cincydawg]

• SEC:  This one is next because it wouldn't be impossible for Bama to lose and get into the CFP anyway if they finish 12-

I am confused.

[ELA]

WEEK 12
Tuesday, November 13

• Western Michigan d. Ball State

Wednesday, November 14

• Northern Illinois d. Miami(Ohio)
• Ohio d. Buffalo

Thursday, November 15

• Houston d. Tulane
• North Texas d. Florida Atlantic
• Toledo d. Kent State

Friday, November 16

• Boise State d. New Mexico
• SMU d. Memphis

Saturday, November 17
ESPN College Gameday, live from Pullman, WA
#23 Washington State 35, #18 Arizona 30

• #1 Alabama d. The Citadel
• #2 Oklahoma d. Kansas
• #3 South Carolina d. Chattanooga
• #4 Georgia d. Massachusetts
• #5 Virginia Tech d. #8 Miami
• #6 Clemson d. Duke
• #7 PENN STATE d. RUTGERS
• Louisville d. #9 NC State
• #10 MICHIGAN STATE d. NEBRASKA
• #11 OHIO STATE d. MARYLAND
• #12 Central Florida d. Cincinnati
• #13 IOWA d. ILLINOIS
• #14 Notre Dame d. Syracuse
• #15 Auburn d. Liberty
• #16 Mississippi State d. Arkansas
• #17 Oklahoma State d. West Virginia
• #19 Washington d. Oregon State
• #20 Florida State d. Boston College
• #21 WISCONSIN d. PURDUE
• #22 Utah d. Colorado
• #24 South Florida d. Temple
• #25 MICHIGAN d. INDIANA

• Akron d. Bowling Green
• Appalachian State d. Georgia State
• Arkansas State d. UL Monroe
• Army d. Colgate
• BYU d. NM State
• East Carolina d. Connecticut
• FIU d. Charlotte
• Florida d. Idaho
• Fresno State d. San Diego State
• Georgia Southern d. Coastal Carolina
• Georgia Tech d. Virginia
• Kansas State d. Texas Tech
• Kentucky d. Middle Tennessee
• Louisiana Tech d. Southern Miss
• LSU d. Rice
• Marshall d. UTSA
• Missouri d. Tennessee
• Navy d. Tulsa
• Nevada d. San Jose State
• North Carolina d. Western Carolina
• NORTHWESTERN d. MINNESOTA
• Old Dominion d. VMI
• Ole Miss d. Vanderbilt
• Oregon d. Arizona State
• Stanford d. California
• TCU d. Baylor
• Texas d. Iowa State
• Texas A&M d. UAB
• Troy d. Texas State
• UL Lafayette d. South Alabama
• UNLV d. Hawaii
• USC d. UCLA
• Utah State d. Colorado State
• Wake Forest d. Pittsburgh
• Western Kentucky d. UTEP
• Wyoming d. Air Force

[iahawk15]

This is fun to view. You have me drunk on possibility.
In this age some of the things that should be an advantage, or no longer.
Some P-5 teams with highly rated senior dominated lineups have players protecting their health for the next level. Iowa does not have a senior dominated lineup. I am not drinking ELA's Kool-Aid. My prediction for the Hawkeyes remains 8-9 wins. And, actually, with four down lineman suspended for Game 1 (from both OL and DL), Game #1, NIU, will be a big challenge. I think Iowa intends to challenge Wisconsin this year; but it remains to be seen how successfully. At least Iowa should develop some depth out of the NIU game.

While I don't expect Iowa to beat Wisconsin, nor handle that 4-out-of-5 road stretch as well as ELA predicted, the most entertaining part to me has been the polls. Each week, I imagine the outcry from the goober component of the Iowa fanbase:
"We're the lowest ranked undefeated P5 team! WTF?"
"A 1-loss Iowa is ranked lower than a 2-loss Wisconsin, and we beat them! WTF!?"
"We're the lowest ranked 1-loss P5 team! WTF??"
"We're 10-1 and not even in the top 10! WTF???"

[ELA]

ACC
ATLANTIC

• Clemson (7-1) 10-1
• Florida State (6-2) 8-3
• NC State (5-2) 9-2
• Louisville (4-4) 6-5
• Wake Forest (3-4) 6-5
• Boston College (2-5) 6-5
• Syracuse (2-5) 5-6

COASTAL

• Virginia Tech (6-1) 10-1
• Miami (5-2) 9-2
• Georgia Tech (4-4) 7-4
• Duke (3-4) 6-5
• Virginia (2-5) 5-6
• Pittsburgh (2-5) 3-8
• North Carolina (0-7) 1-10

BIG TEN
EAST

• Penn State (7-1) 10-1
• Michigan State (7-1) 9-2
• Ohio State (6-2) 9-2
• Michigan (6-2) 8-3
• Maryland (3-5) 5-6
• Indiana (2-6) 5-6
• Rutgers (1-7) 4-7

WEST

• Iowa (7-1) 10-1
• Wisconsin (5-3) 8-3
• Northwestern (4-4) 7-4
• Purdue (4-4) 6-5
• Nebraska (2-6) 5-6
• Minnesota (2-6) 4-7
• Illinois (0-8) 2-9

BIG XII

• Oklahoma (8-0) 11-0
• Oklahoma State (6-2) 9-2
• TCU (6-2) 8-3
• Kansas State (5-3) 8-3
• Texas (4-4) 7-4
• Iowa State (4-4) 6-5
• West Virginia (4-4) 6-5
• Texas Tech (2-6) 5-6
• Baylor (1-7) 2-9
• Kansas (0-8) 1-10

PAC 12
NORTH

• Washington (7-1) 9-2
• Washington State (6-2) 9-2
• Stanford (5-3) 7-4
• Oregon (4-4) 7-4
• California (2-6) 5-6
• Oregon State (0-8) 1-10

SOUTH

• Utah (7-2) 9-2
• USC (7-2) 8-3
• Arizona (5-3) 8-3
• Arizona State (4-4) 6-5
• Colorado (2-6) 4-7
• UCLA (0-8) 1-10

SEC
EAST

• South Carolina (8-0) 11-0
• Georgia (7-1) 10-1
• Florida (5-3) 8-3
• Missouri (3-4) 6-5
• Kentucky (2-6) 5-6
• Tennessee (0-7) 3-8
• Vanderbilt (0-7) 3-8

WEST

• Alabama (7-0) 11-0
• Mississippi State (6-1) 9-2
• Auburn (5-2) 9-2
• Texas A&M (3-4) 6-5
• LSU (2-5) 5-6
• Ole Miss (2-5) 5-6
• Arkansas (1-6) 5-6

AMERICAN
EAST

• Central Florida (7-0) 11-0
• South Florida (7-0) 10-1
• Temple (3-4) 5-6
• East Carolina (1-6) 4-7
• Connecticut (1-6) 3-8
• Cincinnati (0-7) 1-10

WEST

• Navy (5-2) 8-3
• Tulane (5-2) 7-4
• Memphis (4-3) 7-4
• Houston (4-3) 6-5
• SMU (4-3) 5-6
• Tulsa (1-6) 3-8

CONFERENCE USA
EAST

• Florida Atlantic (6-1) 8-3
• Marshall (6-1) 7-4
• Middle Tennessee (5-2) 6-5
• Western Kentucky (3-4) 4-7
• FIU (2-5) 4-7
• Charlotte (2-5) 3-8
• Old Dominion (1-6) 2-9

WEST

• North Texas (6-1) 9-2
• UAB (6-1) 8-3
• Louisiana Tech (5-2) 6-5
• Southern Miss (3-4) 5-6
• UTSA (2-5) 4-7
• Rice (2-5) 3-9
• UTEP (0-7) 2-9

MAC
EAST

• Buffalo (5-2) 6-5
• Ohio (4-3) 7-4
• Miami(Ohio) (4-3) 6-5
• Akron (3-4) 4-7
• Bowling Green (1-6) 2-9
• Kent State (1-6) 2-9

WEST

• Northern Illinois (7-0) 8-3
• Toledo (6-1) 8-3
• Western Michigan (4-3) 6-5
• Central Michigan (3-4) 5-6
• Eastern Michigan (3-4) 4-7
• Ball State (1-6) 3-8

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN

• Boise State (7-0) 10-1
• Utah State (6-1) 8-3
• Wyoming (4-3) 6-5
• Colorado State (3-4) 4-7
• Air Force (2-5) 3-8
• New Mexico (0-7) 2-9

WEST

• Fresno State (6-1) 10-1
• San Diego State (5-2) 8-3
• Nevada (3-4) 5-6
• UNLV (3-4) 5-6
• San Jose State (3-4) 4-7
• Hawaii (0-7) 2-10

SUN BELT
EAST

• Appalachian State (6-1) 9-2
• Troy (6-1) 8-3
• Georgia State (3-4) 4-7
• Georgia Southern (2-5) 4-7
• Coastal Carolina (0-7) 2-9

WEST

• Arkansas State (7-0) 9-1
• South Alabama (3-4) 5-6
• UL Lafayette (3-4) 5-6
• UL Monroe (3-4) 4-7
• Texas State (2-5) 3-8

INDEPENDENTS

• Army (9-2)
• Notre Dame (9-2)
• NM State (5-6)
• Massachusetts (5-7)
• BYU (4-7)
• Liberty (3-8)

[FearlessF]

so, the Huskers have to upset the Hawks in Kinnick to get a bowl game

GBR!

[medinabuckeye1]

BIG TEN
EAST

• Penn State (7-1) 10-1
• Michigan State (7-1) 9-2
• Ohio State (6-2) 9-2
• Michigan (6-2) 8-3
• Maryland (3-5) 5-6
• Indiana (2-6) 5-6
• Rutgers (1-7) 4-7

WEST

• Iowa (7-1) 10-1
• Wisconsin (5-3) 8-3
• Northwestern (4-4) 7-4
• Purdue (4-4) 6-5
• Nebraska (2-6) 5-6
• Minnesota (2-6) 4-7
• Illinois (0-8) 2-9

In the West the Hawkeyes have now clinched an outright B1G-W Championship.  
The situation in the East is a bit more complicated mathematically but, as a practical matter, it is not much different.  Here is the chart:

Game	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	#8
PSU v UMD	PSU	PSU	PSU	PSU	UMD	UMD	UMD	UMD
MSU v RU	MSU	MSU	RU	RU	MSU	MSU	RU	RU
M @ tOSU	tOSU	M	tOSU	M	tOSU	M	tOSU	M
B1G-E Champ	PSU, MSU	PSU, MSU	PSU	PSU	MSU	MSU	PS,MS,OS	PS,MS,M
B1GCG Rep	PSU	PSU	PSU	PSU	MSU	MSU	PSU	M

Ohio State is mathematically eliminated from B1GCG contention but can still theoretically win a share of the B1G-E.  This is, however, extremely unlikely because in order for the tOSU/M winner to get a share of the title Maryland and Rutgers would need to win road games at Penn State and Michigan State respectively.  
Simpler version:

• If Penn State beats Maryland, they go to Indianapolis to face Iowa in the B1GCG.  
• If Penn State loses to Maryland then Michigan State goes to Indianapolis to face Iowa in the B1GCG if they beat Rutgers.  
• If Penn State and Michigan State both lose then Penn State goes if Ohio State beats Michigan and Michigan goes if they beat the Buckeyes.