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Topic: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions

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ELA

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #60 on: August 17, 2018, 03:20:34 PM »
November 4 Poll
  • Alabama (9-0)
  • Oklahoma (9-0)
  • South Carolina (9-0)
  • Georgia (8-1)
  • OHIO STATE (8-1)
  • Virginia Tech (8-1)
  • Clemson (8-1)
  • Auburn (8-1)
  • PENN STATE (8-1)
  • Miami (8-1)
  • Mississippi State (8-1)
  • Oklahoma State (8-1)
  • NC State (8-1)
  • Florida State (7-2)
  • WISCONSIN (7-2)
  • MICHIGAN STATE (7-2)
  • Central Florida (9-0)
  • IOWA (8-1)
  • Notre Dame (7-2)
  • Arizona (8-2)
  • Washington (8-2)
  • Florida (7-2)
  • Utah (7-2)
  • Washington State (7-2)
  • Fresno State (9-0)

medinabuckeye1

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #61 on: August 17, 2018, 04:39:41 PM »
BIG TEN
WEST
  • Iowa (5-1) 8-1
  • Wisconsin (4-2) 7-2
  • Northwestern (3-3) 6-3
  • Purdue (3-3) 5-4
  • Minnesota (2-4) 4-5
  • Nebraska (1-5) 4-5
  • Illinois (0-6) 2-7
In this scenario Iowa would be very close to mathematically clinching.  
Path to the B1GCG from this point:
  • Iowa:  The Hawkeyes effectively have a two-game lead because they own a tiebreaker over Wisconsin.  If they win their next game (vNU) that would mathematically eliminate the Wildcats along with the Boilermakers and Gophers.  To beat the Badgers they can afford one loss plus one additional loss for each remaining loss that the Badgers suffer.  
  • Wisconsin:  They need to win out and hope that Purdue loses two of their last three games (vNU, @IL, vUNL).  
  • Northwestern:  They need to win out plus they need Iowa and Wisconsin to each lose at least once more (in addition to Iowa's assumed loss to NU) then they need to hope the tiebreakers work their way.  
  • Purdue:  The Boilermakers need all kinds of unlikely help.  
  • Minnesota:  In theory the Gophers could finish 5-4 and Iowa could lose out to finish 5-4 and Wisconsin could lose at least twice more and if all that happened then they would be in a multiple-team tie with the Hawkeyes and Wisconsin and/or Northwestern and/or Purdue at 5-4 but in practice they are out of the running.  
  • Nebraska and Illinois are mathematically eliminated.  

FWIW: In this scenario the Hawkeyes could mathematically clinch the weekend of November 10th.  If Iowa wins (vNU) and Wisconsin loses (@PSU) then Iowa would clinch because at 6-1 they could do no worse than a tie with Wisconsin and/or Purdue and the Hawkeyes would win any potential tie involving either Wisconsin, Purdue, or both.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #62 on: August 17, 2018, 04:40:41 PM »
BIG TEN
EAST
  • Ohio State (5-1) 8-1
  • Penn State (5-1) 8-1
  • Michigan State (5-1) 7-2
  • Michigan (4-2) 6-3
  • Maryland (3-3) 5-4
  • Indiana (1-5) 4-5
  • Rutgers (1-5) 4-5
Despite the apparent three-way tie in this scenario, Penn State still holds the inside track.  They hold a H2H tiebreaker over the other two 5-1 teams and additionally, the Buckeyes and Spartans have not played yet so at least one of them must necessarily lose again.  
Path to B1GCG from this point:
  • Ohio State:  Win out and have PSU lose at least once.  
  • Penn State:  Controls their own destiny, if they win out they can do no worse than a tie with the tOSU/MSU winner and they win that tie.  
  • Michigan State:  Win out and have PSU lose at least once.  
  • Michigan:  This one is trickier.  They would win a tie with PSU but lose a tie with MSU and they haven't played the Buckeyes yet.  They would need to win out and they would additionally need PSU and MSU to each lose once more.  Furthermore, since they lose a two-way tie with the Spartans, they either need the Spartans to lose twice more or for the three way tiebreaker with MSU and PSU to go their way.  FWIW: the three-way tiebreaker probably would break in Michigan's favor because they are the only team in the running to have a non-divisional loss and divisional record is the second tiebreaker (only after H2H...2H).  
  • Maryland:  The Terps would still be in it mathematically but barely.  The tOSU/MSU winner will have at least six wins and Maryland could do no better than 6-3 so they would need all kinds of unlikely help just to get into a multiple-team tie at 6-3 and then they would have to hope that the tiebreakers broke their way.  
  • Indiana and Rutgers would be mathematicaly eliminated.  

Riffraft

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #63 on: August 17, 2018, 04:52:51 PM »
Despite the apparent three-way tie in this scenario, Penn State still holds the inside track.  They hold a H2H tiebreaker over the other two 5-1 teams and additionally, the Buckeyes and Spartans have not played yet so at least one of them must necessarily lose again.  
Path to B1GCG from this point:
  • Ohio State:  Win out and have PSU lose at least once.  
  • Penn State:  Controls their own destiny, if they win out they can do no worse than a tie with the tOSU/MSU winner and they win that tie.  
  • Michigan State:  Win out and have PSU lose at least once.  
  • Michigan:  This one is trickier.  They would win a tie with PSU but lose a tie with MSU and they haven't played the Buckeyes yet.  They would need to win out and they would additionally need PSU and MSU to each lose once more.  Furthermore, since they lose a two-way tie with the Spartans, they either need the Spartans to lose twice more or for the three way tiebreaker with MSU and PSU to go their way.  FWIW: the three-way tiebreaker probably would break in Michigan's favor because they are the only team in the running to have a non-divisional loss and divisional record is the second tiebreaker (only after H2H...2H).  
  • Maryland:  The Terps would still be in it mathematically but barely.  The tOSU/MSU winner will have at least six wins and Maryland could do no better than 6-3 so they would need all kinds of unlikely help just to get into a multiple-team tie at 6-3 and then they would have to hope that the tiebreakers broke their way.  
  • Indiana and Rutgers would be mathematicaly eliminated.  

So is he heading to the previous scenario where Penn State wins the division, but Ohio State goes to the CFP.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #64 on: August 17, 2018, 05:01:26 PM »
So is he heading to the previous scenario where Penn State wins the division, but Ohio State goes to the CFP.
I think that is extraordinarily unlikely unless Penn State also goes to the CFP.  There are some substantial differences as compared to 2016:
  • In 2016 Penn State had an OOC loss to a mediocre Pitt team.  In this scenario the Nittany Lions were 3-0 OOC.  
  • In 2016 the Buckeyes had a very strong OOC win on the road over the B12 Champion Sooners who went undefeated in the B12.  In this scenario Ohio State's "marquee" OOC win is over a TCU team that, at this point in the scenario, is unranked and in third place in the B12 with almost zero chance of winning it.  
  • In 2016 Penn State's B1G loss was a humiliating 39 point blowout loss in Ann Arbor.  ELA didn't give us a score prediction here because he does not predict PSU@MSU to warrant Gameday but I have to assume that he isn't predicting THAT bad of a loss.  

ELA

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #65 on: August 20, 2018, 10:45:16 AM »
WEEK 11
Tuesday, November 6
  • Buffalo d. Kent State

Wednesday, November 7
  • Miami(Ohio) d. Ohio
  • Northern Illinois d. Toledo

Thursday, November 8
  • #13 NC State d. Wake Forest

Friday, November 9
  • Boise State d. #25 Fresno State

  • Syracuse d. Louisville

Saturday, November 10
ESPN College Gameday, live from Norman, OK
#2 Oklahoma 41, #12 Oklahoma State 35

  • #1 Alabama d. #11 Mississippi State
  • #3 South Carolina d. #22 Florida
  • #4 Georgia d. #8 Auburn
  • #16 MICHIGAN STATE d. #5 OHIO STATE
  • #6 Virginia Tech d. Pittsburgh
  • #7 Clemson d. Boston College
  • #9 PENN STATE d. #15 WISCONSIN
  • #10 Miami d. Georgia Tech
  • #19 Notre Dame d. #14 Florida State
  • #17 Central Florida d. Navy
  • #18 IOWA d. NORTHWESTERN
  • #23 Utah d. Oregon
  • #24 Washington State d. Colorado

  • Air Force d. New Mexico
  • Appalachian State d. Texas State
  • Arizona State d. UCLA
  • Arkansas State d. Coastal Carolina
  • Army d. Lafayette
  • Central Michigan d. Bowling Green
  • Duke d. North Carolina
  • Eastern Michigan d. Akron
  • Florida Atlantic d. Western Kentucky
  • Houston d. Temple
  • INDIANA d. MARYLAND
  • Iowa State d. Baylor
  • Kansas State d. Kansas
  • Kentucky d. Tennessee
  • Louisiana Tech d. Rice
  • LSU d. Arkansas
  • Marshall d. Charlotte
  • Massachusetts d. BYU
  • Memphis d. Tulsa
  • MICHIGAN d. RUTGERS
  • Middle Tennessee d. UTEP
  • Missouri d. Vanderbilt
  • NEBRASKA d. ILLINOIS
  • Nevada d. Colorado State
  • North Texas d. Old Dominion
  • PURDUE d. MINNESOTA
  • San Diego State d. UNLV
  • SMU d. Connecticut
  • South Alabama d. UL Monroe
  • South Florida d. Cincinnati
  • Stanford d. Oregon State
  • TCU d. West Virginia
  • Texas A&M d. Ole Miss
  • Texas Tech d. Texas
  • Troy d. Georgia Southern
  • Tulane d. East Carolina
  • UAB d. Southern Miss
  • UL Lafayette d. Georgia State
  • USC d. California
  • Utah State d. San Jose State
  • UTSA d. FIU
  • Virginia d. Liberty

ELA

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #66 on: August 20, 2018, 10:45:39 AM »
A Saturday with 7 games between ranked teams, including the entire top 5?  Yes please!

medinabuckeye1

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #67 on: August 20, 2018, 11:18:00 AM »
WEEK 11
  • #9 PENN STATE d. #15 WISCONSIN
  • #18 IOWA d. NORTHWESTERN
This would all but lock up an Iowa/Penn State rematch in the B1GCG:
Iowa's win coupled with Wisconsin's loss would clinch the B1G-W for the Hawkeyes.  They would be 6-1 with two games to go but the only two B1G-W teams that could catch them are PU and UW and Iowa beat both of them so the race is over, Iowa is in.  
The East is not clinched mathematically but that appears to be nothing more than a formality.  Michigan State would be tied with Penn State while the Buckeyes and Wolverines would only be one game down but given the tiebreakers and Penn State's remaining schedule of UMD and RU (currently 3-4 and 1-6 in this scenario) the Nittany Lions would be all but a lock for a trip to Indianapolis.  
There are seven remaining games of direct relevance to the B1G-E Championship but, as a practical matter, most of them will not be relevant.  With seven remaining games of relevance (PSU@RU, PSUvUMD, MSU@UNL, MSUvRU, MvIU, M@tOSU, tOSU@UMD) there are 128 mathematical possibilities (2*2*2*2*2*2*2=128).  We can significantly reduce this number with a few shortcuts:
  • 32 of these scenarios involve PSU winning their last two games.  Those can be compressed into one scenario because if PSU wins their last two games then none of the other results matter.  
  • 64 of these scenarios involve PSU losing to either RU or UMD but we can cut that in half because it doesn't matter which.  Additionally, we can but another 1/4 of those possibilities because the tOSU@UMD result is not relevant unless PSU loses not just once but twice.  
The relevant possibilities:
  • PSU wins their last two games, they go to the B1GCG
  • If PSU goes 1-1 in their last two games then:  MSU goes if they win out.  If PSU and MSU both go 1-1 in their last two games then they and the tOSU/M winner (assuming the tOSU/M winner won their other game) would all be tied at 7-2.  In the PSU/MSU/tOSU tie PSU wins by virtue of being 2-0 against the other two (MSU is 1-1, tOSU is 0-2).  The PSU/MSU/M tie is trickier.  They would each be 1-1 against each other so it would go to divisional record where PSU would lose because their "other" loss would be to a divisional rival (either UMD or RU).  The winner between the two Michigan schools, however, would be dependent upon which of their remaining games the Spartans lost.  If the Spartans lost to Rutgers then Michigan would go to the B1GCG because they would win the Divisional Record tiebreaker.  If the Spartans lost to Nebraska instead then the Spartans would go to the B1GCG based on H2H over Michigan which would be invoked once PSU was eliminated.  
  • If PSU goes 0-2 in their last two games then MSU, M, tOSU, and PSU are all in play.  

ELA

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #68 on: August 20, 2018, 02:31:07 PM »
ACC
ATLANTIC
  • Clemson (6-1) 9-1
  • NC State (5-1) 9-1
  • Florida State (5-2) 7-3
  • Louisville (3-4) 5-5
  • Boston College (2-4) 6-4
  • Wake Forest (2-4) 5-5
  • Syracuse (2-5) 5-5
COASTAL
  • Miami (5-1) 9-1
  • Virginia Tech (5-1) 9-1
  • Duke (3-3) 6-4
  • Georgia Tech (3-4) 6-4
  • Virginia (2-4) 5-5
  • Pittsburgh (2-4) 3-7
  • North Carolina (0-7) 0-10

BIG TEN
EAST
  • Penn State (6-1) 9-1
  • Michigan State (6-1) 8-2
  • Ohio State (5-2) 8-2
  • Michigan (5-2) 7-3
  • Maryland (3-4) 5-5
  • Indiana (2-5) 5-5
  • Rutgers (1-6) 4-6
WEST
  • Iowa (6-1) 9-1
  • Wisconsin (4-3) 7-3
  • Purdue (4-3) 6-4
  • Northwestern (3-4) 6-4
  • Nebraska (2-5) 5-5
  • Minnesota (2-5) 4-6
  • Illinois (0-7) 2-8

BIG XII
  • Oklahoma (7-0) 10-0
  • Oklahoma State (5-2) 8-2
  • TCU (5-2) 7-3
  • Kansas State (4-3) 7-3
  • Iowa State (4-3) 6-4
  • West Virginia (4-3) 6-4
  • Texas (3-4) 6-4
  • Texas Tech (2-5) 5-5
  • Baylor (1-6) 2-8
  • Kansas (0-7) 1-9

PAC 12
NORTH
  • Washington (6-1) 8-2
  • Washington State (5-2) 8-2
  • Stanford (4-3) 6-4
  • Oregon (3-4) 6-4
  • California (2-5) 5-5
  • Oregon State (0-7) 1-9
SOUTH
  • Utah (6-2) 8-2
  • USC (6-2) 7-3
  • Arizona (5-2) 8-2
  • Arizona State (4-3) 6-4
  • Colorado (2-5) 4-6
  • UCLA (0-7) 1-9

SEC
EAST
  • South Carolina (8-0) 10-0
  • Georgia (7-1) 9-1
  • Florida (5-3) 7-3
  • Missouri (2-4) 5-5
  • Kentucky (2-6) 4-6
  • Vanderbilt (0-6) 3-7
  • Tennessee (0-6) 3-7
WEST
  • Alabama (7-0) 10-0
  • Mississippi State (5-1) 8-2
  • Auburn (5-2) 8-2
  • Texas A&M (3-4) 5-5
  • LSU (2-5) 4-6
  • Arkansas (1-5) 5-5
  • Ole Miss (1-5) 4-6

AMERICAN
EAST
  • Central Florida (6-0) 10-0
  • South Florida (6-0) 9-1
  • Temple (3-3) 5-5
  • Connecticut (1-5) 3-7
  • East Carolina (0-6) 3-7
  • Cincinnati (0-6) 1-9
WEST
  • Tulane (5-1) 7-3
  • Memphis (4-2) 7-3
  • Navy (4-2) 7-3
  • Houston (3-3) 5-5
  • SMU (3-3) 4-6
  • Tulsa (1-5) 3-7

CONFERENCE USA
EAST
  • Florida Atlantic (6-0) 8-2
  • Marshall (5-1) 6-4
  • Middle Tennessee (5-2) 6-4
  • Charlotte (2-4) 3-7
  • Western Kentucky (2-4) 3-7
  • FIU (1-5) 3-7
  • Old Dominion (1-6) 1-9
WEST
  • UAB (6-1) 8-2
  • North Texas (5-1) 8-2
  • Louisiana Tech (4-2) 5-5
  • Southern Miss (3-3) 5-5
  • UTSA (2-4) 4-6
  • Rice (2-5) 3-8
  • UTEP (0-6) 2-8

MAC
EAST
  • Buffalo (5-1) 6-4
  • Miami(Ohio) (4-2) 6-4
  • Ohio (3-3) 6-4
  • Akron (2-4) 3-7
  • Bowling Green (1-5) 2-8
  • Kent State (1-5) 2-8
WEST
  • Northern Illinois (6-0) 7-3
  • Toledo (5-1) 7-3
  • Western Michigan (3-3) 5-5
  • Central Michigan (3-4) 5-6
  • Eastern Michigan (3-4) 4-7
  • Ball State (1-5) 3-7

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN
  • Boise State (6-0) 9-1
  • Utah State (5-1) 7-3
  • Wyoming (3-3) 5-5
  • Colorado State (3-3) 4-6
  • Air Force (2-3) 3-6
  • New Mexico (0-6) 2-8
WEST
  • Fresno State (5-1) 9-1
  • San Diego State (5-1) 8-2
  • San Jose State (3-3) 4-6
  • Nevada (2-4) 4-6
  • UNLV (2-4) 4-6
  • Hawaii (0-6) 2-9

SUN BELT
EAST
  • Appalachian State (5-1) 8-2
  • Troy (5-1) 7-3
  • Georgia State (3-3) 4-6
  • Georgia Southern (1-5) 3-7
  • Coastal Carolina (0-6) 2-8
WEST
  • Arkansas State (6-0) 8-1
  • South Alabama (3-3) 5-5
  • UL Monroe (3-3) 4-6
  • UL Lafayette (2-4) 4-6
  • Texas State (2-4) 3-7

INDEPENDENTS
  • Army (8-2)
  • Notre Dame (8-2)
  • NM State (5-5)
  • Massachusetts (5-6)
  • BYU (3-7)
  • Liberty (3-7)

FearlessF

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #69 on: August 20, 2018, 02:45:21 PM »

WEST
  • Iowa (6-1) 9-1
  • Wisconsin (4-3) 7-3
  • Purdue (4-3) 6-4
  • Northwestern (3-4) 6-4
  • Nebraska (2-5) 5-5
  • Minnesota (2-5) 4-6
  • Illinois (0-7) 2-8
just need an upset of Sparty or Herky to get to that 6 win bowl game
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #70 on: August 20, 2018, 02:52:14 PM »
FWIW:
As noted above, from this point there are 128 relevant possible outcomes in the B1G-E, of those:
  • 70 result in PSU going to the B1GCG (32 as outright champions)
  • 46 result in MSU going to the B1GCG (32 as outright champions)
  • 10 result in Michigan going to the B1GCG (2 as outright champions)
  • 2 result in Ohio State going to the B1GCG (both as outright champions)

There are two potential 4-way ties:

Four way tie #1:
  • PSU loses out, and
  • MSU loses out, and
  • Michigan beats Indiana but loses to Ohio State, and
  • Ohio State loses to Maryland
In this case tOSU and Michigan are eliminated based on H2H2H2H records of 1-2 and Penn State wins based on their H2H win over MSU.  

Four way tie #2:
  • PSU loses out, and
  • MSU loses out, and
  • Ohio State beats Maryland but loses to Michigan, and
  • Michigan loses to Indiana
In this case tOSU is eliminated based on their 0-3 H2H2H2H record (the other three are all 2-1) then PSU is eliminated based on Divisional Record (because the two Michigan schools have non-divisional losses) and MSU wins based on their H2H win over Michigan.  

rolltidefan

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #71 on: August 20, 2018, 03:11:45 PM »
USCe and Bama locked up seccg births. 

ELA

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #72 on: August 20, 2018, 04:32:29 PM »
November 11 Poll
  • Alabama (10-0)
  • Oklahoma (10-0)
  • South Carolina (10-0)
  • Georgia (9-1)
  • Virginia Tech (9-1)
  • Clemson (9-1)
  • PENN STATE (9-1)
  • Miami (9-1)
  • NC State (9-1)
  • MICHIGAN STATE (8-2)
  • OHIO STATE (8-2)
  • Central Florida (10-0)
  • IOWA (9-1)
  • Notre Dame (8-2)
  • Auburn (8-2)
  • Mississippi State (8-2)
  • Oklahoma State (8-2)
  • Arizona (8-2)
  • Washington (8-2)
  • Florida State (7-3)
  • WISCONSIN (7-3)
  • Utah (8-2)
  • Washington State (8-2)
  • South Florida (9-1)
  • MICHIGAN (7-3)

Cincydawg

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #73 on: August 20, 2018, 04:39:35 PM »
USCe undefeated is entertaining as a prediction.

ELA

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #74 on: August 20, 2018, 05:05:10 PM »
USCe undefeated is entertaining as a prediction.
I have them in my preseason top 20, but I think their early schedule breaks well.  I think the only game they play against another team I have in my top 40 is Georgia at home.  Get past that, and it's a pretty cake schedule.  They miss Alabama, Auburn, LSU, and Mississippi State as crossover opponents, and get Texas A&M at home.  But would I be surprised if they lose at home to Georgia, then go to Lexington and lose on the road there to be out of the race before October 1?  Not at all.
But they finish at Clemson, then in Atlanta against Alabama, so they'll be tested before this is over.  Will get to 11-0 at home against Chattanooga next weekend though.  Could set up the biggest Palmetto game in series history.  Currently both teams are sitting in the top 6.

rolltidefan

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #75 on: August 20, 2018, 07:17:34 PM »
You got acc loaded with 4 top 10 teams all at 9-1. Plus FSU in top 25. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #76 on: August 20, 2018, 07:46:01 PM »
The way this is setting up the most important CG by far will be the B12.  Looking at the P5 from most to least important:

  • B12:  I say most important because this is the only one, for now, where it looks like the result will determine whether or not the conference gets a team in the CFP.  Oklahoma is 10-0 and #2.  Their last two games are Kansas and WVU.  They should obviously beat Kansas and even if they lose to WVU they would probably still make the CFP with a B12CG win and an 12-1 record.  I say this one is the most important because the next highest and only other ranked B12 team is 8-2 OkSU and the Cowboys probably couldn't get in at 11-2.  
  • SEC:  This one is next because it wouldn't be impossible for Bama to lose and get into the CFP anyway if they finish 12-0.  
  • B1G:  I am calling this one the next most interesting because I think that the B1G is next closest to the CFP cut-line.  Obvioulsy if Penn State wins out to finish 12-1 they are in but what if Iowa loses to Nebraska then upsets the Nittany Lions?  They might be out at 11-2.  
  • ACC:  This one is likely a win-and-in deal with all the other teams being out.  With four teams in the top-9 and all four with just one loss each the winner is almost certainly in the CFP, but obviously a 12-1 SECCG losing Bama would get in over an 11-2 or 11-1 ACC team.  
  • PAC:  This one is the least important because I just can't see any PAC teams making the CFP in this scenario.  They have four ranked teams but they are all 8-2 and they are ranked 18, 19, 22, and 23.  They will most likely end up behind the other four P5 Champions and several non-Champions from other leagues.  

Hawkinole

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #77 on: August 21, 2018, 12:32:08 AM »
This is fun to view. You have me drunk on possibility.
In this age some of the things that should be an advantage, or no longer.
Some P-5 teams with highly rated senior dominated lineups have players protecting their health for the next level. Iowa does not have a senior dominated lineup. I am not drinking ELA's Kool-Aid. My prediction for the Hawkeyes remains 8-9 wins. And, actually, with four down lineman suspended for Game 1 (from both OL and DL), Game #1, NIU, will be a big challenge. I think Iowa intends to challenge Wisconsin this year; but it remains to be seen how successfully. At least Iowa should develop some depth out of the NIU game.

Cincydawg

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #78 on: August 21, 2018, 10:58:04 AM »
  • SEC:  This one is next because it wouldn't be impossible for Bama to lose and get into the CFP anyway if they finish 12-
I am confused.

ELA

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #79 on: August 21, 2018, 11:20:00 AM »
WEEK 12
Tuesday, November 13
  • Western Michigan d. Ball State

Wednesday, November 14
  • Northern Illinois d. Miami(Ohio)
  • Ohio d. Buffalo

Thursday, November 15
  • Houston d. Tulane
  • North Texas d. Florida Atlantic
  • Toledo d. Kent State

Friday, November 16
  • Boise State d. New Mexico
  • SMU d. Memphis

Saturday, November 17
ESPN College Gameday, live from Pullman, WA
#23 Washington State 35, #18 Arizona 30

  • #1 Alabama d. The Citadel
  • #2 Oklahoma d. Kansas
  • #3 South Carolina d. Chattanooga
  • #4 Georgia d. Massachusetts
  • #5 Virginia Tech d. #8 Miami
  • #6 Clemson d. Duke
  • #7 PENN STATE d. RUTGERS
  • Louisville d. #9 NC State
  • #10 MICHIGAN STATE d. NEBRASKA
  • #11 OHIO STATE d. MARYLAND
  • #12 Central Florida d. Cincinnati
  • #13 IOWA d. ILLINOIS
  • #14 Notre Dame d. Syracuse
  • #15 Auburn d. Liberty
  • #16 Mississippi State d. Arkansas
  • #17 Oklahoma State d. West Virginia
  • #19 Washington d. Oregon State
  • #20 Florida State d. Boston College
  • #21 WISCONSIN d. PURDUE
  • #22 Utah d. Colorado
  • #24 South Florida d. Temple
  • #25 MICHIGAN d. INDIANA

  • Akron d. Bowling Green
  • Appalachian State d. Georgia State
  • Arkansas State d. UL Monroe
  • Army d. Colgate
  • BYU d. NM State
  • East Carolina d. Connecticut
  • FIU d. Charlotte
  • Florida d. Idaho
  • Fresno State d. San Diego State
  • Georgia Southern d. Coastal Carolina
  • Georgia Tech d. Virginia
  • Kansas State d. Texas Tech
  • Kentucky d. Middle Tennessee
  • Louisiana Tech d. Southern Miss
  • LSU d. Rice
  • Marshall d. UTSA
  • Missouri d. Tennessee
  • Navy d. Tulsa
  • Nevada d. San Jose State
  • North Carolina d. Western Carolina
  • NORTHWESTERN d. MINNESOTA
  • Old Dominion d. VMI
  • Ole Miss d. Vanderbilt
  • Oregon d. Arizona State
  • Stanford d. California
  • TCU d. Baylor
  • Texas d. Iowa State
  • Texas A&M d. UAB
  • Troy d. Texas State
  • UL Lafayette d. South Alabama
  • UNLV d. Hawaii
  • USC d. UCLA
  • Utah State d. Colorado State
  • Wake Forest d. Pittsburgh
  • Western Kentucky d. UTEP
  • Wyoming d. Air Force

iahawk15

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #80 on: August 21, 2018, 11:48:00 AM »
This is fun to view. You have me drunk on possibility.
In this age some of the things that should be an advantage, or no longer.
Some P-5 teams with highly rated senior dominated lineups have players protecting their health for the next level. Iowa does not have a senior dominated lineup. I am not drinking ELA's Kool-Aid. My prediction for the Hawkeyes remains 8-9 wins. And, actually, with four down lineman suspended for Game 1 (from both OL and DL), Game #1, NIU, will be a big challenge. I think Iowa intends to challenge Wisconsin this year; but it remains to be seen how successfully. At least Iowa should develop some depth out of the NIU game.
While I don't expect Iowa to beat Wisconsin, nor handle that 4-out-of-5 road stretch as well as ELA predicted, the most entertaining part to me has been the polls. Each week, I imagine the outcry from the goober component of the Iowa fanbase:
"We're the lowest ranked undefeated P5 team! WTF?"
"A 1-loss Iowa is ranked lower than a 2-loss Wisconsin, and we beat them! WTF!?"
"We're the lowest ranked 1-loss P5 team! WTF??"
"We're 10-1 and not even in the top 10! WTF???"

ELA

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #81 on: August 21, 2018, 03:35:13 PM »
ACC
ATLANTIC
  • Clemson (7-1) 10-1
  • Florida State (6-2) 8-3
  • NC State (5-2) 9-2
  • Louisville (4-4) 6-5
  • Wake Forest (3-4) 6-5
  • Boston College (2-5) 6-5
  • Syracuse (2-5) 5-6
COASTAL
  • Virginia Tech (6-1) 10-1
  • Miami (5-2) 9-2
  • Georgia Tech (4-4) 7-4
  • Duke (3-4) 6-5
  • Virginia (2-5) 5-6
  • Pittsburgh (2-5) 3-8
  • North Carolina (0-7) 1-10

BIG TEN
EAST
  • Penn State (7-1) 10-1
  • Michigan State (7-1) 9-2
  • Ohio State (6-2) 9-2
  • Michigan (6-2) 8-3
  • Maryland (3-5) 5-6
  • Indiana (2-6) 5-6
  • Rutgers (1-7) 4-7
WEST
  • Iowa (7-1) 10-1
  • Wisconsin (5-3) 8-3
  • Northwestern (4-4) 7-4
  • Purdue (4-4) 6-5
  • Nebraska (2-6) 5-6
  • Minnesota (2-6) 4-7
  • Illinois (0-8) 2-9

BIG XII
  • Oklahoma (8-0) 11-0
  • Oklahoma State (6-2) 9-2
  • TCU (6-2) 8-3
  • Kansas State (5-3) 8-3
  • Texas (4-4) 7-4
  • Iowa State (4-4) 6-5
  • West Virginia (4-4) 6-5
  • Texas Tech (2-6) 5-6
  • Baylor (1-7) 2-9
  • Kansas (0-8) 1-10

PAC 12
NORTH
  • Washington (7-1) 9-2
  • Washington State (6-2) 9-2
  • Stanford (5-3) 7-4
  • Oregon (4-4) 7-4
  • California (2-6) 5-6
  • Oregon State (0-8) 1-10
SOUTH
  • Utah (7-2) 9-2
  • USC (7-2) 8-3
  • Arizona (5-3) 8-3
  • Arizona State (4-4) 6-5
  • Colorado (2-6) 4-7
  • UCLA (0-8) 1-10

SEC
EAST
  • South Carolina (8-0) 11-0
  • Georgia (7-1) 10-1
  • Florida (5-3) 8-3
  • Missouri (3-4) 6-5
  • Kentucky (2-6) 5-6
  • Tennessee (0-7) 3-8
  • Vanderbilt (0-7) 3-8
WEST
  • Alabama (7-0) 11-0
  • Mississippi State (6-1) 9-2
  • Auburn (5-2) 9-2
  • Texas A&M (3-4) 6-5
  • LSU (2-5) 5-6
  • Ole Miss (2-5) 5-6
  • Arkansas (1-6) 5-6

AMERICAN
EAST
  • Central Florida (7-0) 11-0
  • South Florida (7-0) 10-1
  • Temple (3-4) 5-6
  • East Carolina (1-6) 4-7
  • Connecticut (1-6) 3-8
  • Cincinnati (0-7) 1-10
WEST
  • Navy (5-2) 8-3
  • Tulane (5-2) 7-4
  • Memphis (4-3) 7-4
  • Houston (4-3) 6-5
  • SMU (4-3) 5-6
  • Tulsa (1-6) 3-8

CONFERENCE USA
EAST
  • Florida Atlantic (6-1) 8-3
  • Marshall (6-1) 7-4
  • Middle Tennessee (5-2) 6-5
  • Western Kentucky (3-4) 4-7
  • FIU (2-5) 4-7
  • Charlotte (2-5) 3-8
  • Old Dominion (1-6) 2-9
WEST
  • North Texas (6-1) 9-2
  • UAB (6-1) 8-3
  • Louisiana Tech (5-2) 6-5
  • Southern Miss (3-4) 5-6
  • UTSA (2-5) 4-7
  • Rice (2-5) 3-9
  • UTEP (0-7) 2-9

MAC
EAST
  • Buffalo (5-2) 6-5
  • Ohio (4-3) 7-4
  • Miami(Ohio) (4-3) 6-5
  • Akron (3-4) 4-7
  • Bowling Green (1-6) 2-9
  • Kent State (1-6) 2-9
WEST
  • Northern Illinois (7-0) 8-3
  • Toledo (6-1) 8-3
  • Western Michigan (4-3) 6-5
  • Central Michigan (3-4) 5-6
  • Eastern Michigan (3-4) 4-7
  • Ball State (1-6) 3-8

MOUNTAIN WEST
MOUNTAIN
  • Boise State (7-0) 10-1
  • Utah State (6-1) 8-3
  • Wyoming (4-3) 6-5
  • Colorado State (3-4) 4-7
  • Air Force (2-5) 3-8
  • New Mexico (0-7) 2-9
WEST
  • Fresno State (6-1) 10-1
  • San Diego State (5-2) 8-3
  • Nevada (3-4) 5-6
  • UNLV (3-4) 5-6
  • San Jose State (3-4) 4-7
  • Hawaii (0-7) 2-10

SUN BELT
EAST
  • Appalachian State (6-1) 9-2
  • Troy (6-1) 8-3
  • Georgia State (3-4) 4-7
  • Georgia Southern (2-5) 4-7
  • Coastal Carolina (0-7) 2-9
WEST
  • Arkansas State (7-0) 9-1
  • South Alabama (3-4) 5-6
  • UL Lafayette (3-4) 5-6
  • UL Monroe (3-4) 4-7
  • Texas State (2-5) 3-8

INDEPENDENTS
  • Army (9-2)
  • Notre Dame (9-2)
  • NM State (5-6)
  • Massachusetts (5-7)
  • BYU (4-7)
  • Liberty (3-8)

FearlessF

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #82 on: August 21, 2018, 03:38:06 PM »
so, the Huskers have to upset the Hawks in Kinnick to get a bowl game

GBR!
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #83 on: August 21, 2018, 04:39:10 PM »
BIG TEN
EAST
  • Penn State (7-1) 10-1
  • Michigan State (7-1) 9-2
  • Ohio State (6-2) 9-2
  • Michigan (6-2) 8-3
  • Maryland (3-5) 5-6
  • Indiana (2-6) 5-6
  • Rutgers (1-7) 4-7
WEST
  • Iowa (7-1) 10-1
  • Wisconsin (5-3) 8-3
  • Northwestern (4-4) 7-4
  • Purdue (4-4) 6-5
  • Nebraska (2-6) 5-6
  • Minnesota (2-6) 4-7
  • Illinois (0-8) 2-9
In the West the Hawkeyes have now clinched an outright B1G-W Championship.  
The situation in the East is a bit more complicated mathematically but, as a practical matter, it is not much different.  Here is the chart:
Game#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8
PSU v UMDPSUPSUPSUPSUUMDUMDUMDUMD
MSU v RUMSUMSURURUMSUMSURURU
M @ tOSUtOSUMtOSUMtOSUMtOSUM
B1G-E ChampPSU, MSUPSU, MSUPSUPSUMSUMSUPS,MS,OSPS,MS,M
B1GCG RepPSUPSUPSUPSUMSUMSUPSUM
Ohio State is mathematically eliminated from B1GCG contention but can still theoretically win a share of the B1G-E.  This is, however, extremely unlikely because in order for the tOSU/M winner to get a share of the title Maryland and Rutgers would need to win road games at Penn State and Michigan State respectively.  
Simpler version:
  • If Penn State beats Maryland, they go to Indianapolis to face Iowa in the B1GCG.  
  • If Penn State loses to Maryland then Michigan State goes to Indianapolis to face Iowa in the B1GCG if they beat Rutgers.  
  • If Penn State and Michigan State both lose then Penn State goes if Ohio State beats Michigan and Michigan goes if they beat the Buckeyes.  

ELA

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #84 on: August 21, 2018, 05:30:29 PM »
November 18 Poll
  • Alabama (11-0)
  • Oklahoma (11-0)
  • South Carolina (11-0)
  • Georgia (10-1)
  • Virginia Tech (10-1)
  • Clemson (10-1)
  • PENN STATE (10-1)
  • MICHIGAN STATE (9-2)
  • OHIO STATE (9-2)
  • Central Florida (11-0)
  • IOWA (10-1)
  • Notre Dame (9-2)
  • Auburn (9-2)
  • Mississippi State (9-2)
  • Miami (9-2)
  • Oklahoma State (9-2)
  • Washington (9-2)
  • NC State (9-2)
  • Washington State (9-2)
  • Florida State (8-3)
  • WISCONSIN (8-3)
  • Utah (9-2)
  • South Florida (10-1)
  • MICHIGAN (8-3)
  • Florida (8-3)

medinabuckeye1

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #85 on: August 21, 2018, 06:05:25 PM »
Playoff picture based on ELA's scenario and rankings:
  • 11-0 Bama:  last game is vs #13 Auburn then vs #3 USCe in the SECCG.  
  • 11-0 Oklahoma:  last game is @ nr WVU then vs either #16 OkSU or nr TCU in the B12CG.  
  • 11-0 USCe:  last game is @ #6 Clemson then vs #1 Bama in the SECCG.  
  • 10-1 UGA:  last game is vs nr GaTech, no CG.  
  • 10-1 VaTech:  last game is vs nr UVA then vs #6 Clemson in the ACCCG.  
  • 10-1 Clemson:  last game is vs #3 USCe then vs #5 VaTech in the ACCCG.  
  • 10-1 Penn State:  last game is vs nr UMD then vs #11 Iowa in the B1GCG (if they beat Maryland).  
  • 9-2 MSU:  last game is vs nr RU.  (In theory they could get to the B1GCG but that would require Maryland winning in Happy Valley).  
  • 9-2 tOSU:  last game is vs #24 M.  
  • 11-0 UCF:  last game is vs #23 USF then (assuming they win) the Navy/Tulane (both nr) winner in the AACCG.  
  • 10-1 Iowa:  last game is vs nr UNL then vs #7 PSU in the B1GCG.  

IMHO all other teams along with #8 MSU, #9 tOSU, and #10 UCF are out of the running.  Thus there are, IMHO, eight serious contenders for the four spots.  Here is what I think they each need:
  • Bama:  The Auburn game is essentially an exhibition except that winning it would give Bama a chance even with an SECCG loss where they obviously would not get in coming off of back-to-back losses.  The SECCG is clearly a play-in.  
  • Oklahoma:  The WVU game is nothing more than an exhibition.  It makes no difference because Oklahoma would be in as B12 Champ at either 13-0 or 12-1 and probably out as non-Champ at either 12-1 or 11-2.  
  • USCe:  Much like Bama and OU, their last game is an exhibition.  They are in with an SEC Championship and out without it regardless of whether they finish 12-1 or 13-0.  
  • Georgia:  They mostly need to root for whoever plays OU in the B12CG.  Other than that just generally rooting for upsets (Nebraska over Iowa, etc) would help.  
  • VaTech:  At a minimum they need to beat Clemson in the ACCCG but they could still miss the CFP if they first lost to UVA and finished 11-2.  Win their last two and they are in for sure.  
  • Clemson:  Clemson would have a MUCH better chance than VaTech with two losses but could still theoretically miss the CFP if they lose to USCe then win the ACCCG.  Win their last two and they are in for sure.  
  • Penn State:  If they win out they are in.  If not, they are almost certainly out.  
  • MSU's only plausible chance requires Maryland to upset PSU, then the Spartans need to win out to finish 11-2 with a B1G Championship and even that is unlikely to be enough because an 11-1 UGA would get in over an 11-2 MSU so they need help.  
  • Ohio State has no plausible shot.  
  • UCF has no plausible shot.  
  • Iowa is in if they win out.  If not they are out.  

ELA

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #86 on: August 22, 2018, 09:32:51 AM »
WEEK 13
Tuesday, November 20
  • Miami(Ohio) d. Ball State
  • Northern Illinois d. Western Michigan

Thanksgiving
  • #14 Mississippi State d. Ole Miss

  • Air Force d. Colorado State

Friday, November 23
  • #2 Oklahoma d. West Virginia
  • #5 Virginia Tech d. Virginia
  • #10 Central Florida d. #23 South Florida
  • #11 IOWA d. NEBRASKA
  • #17 Washington d. #19 Washington State

  • Buffalo d. Bowling Green
  • Cincinnati d. East Carolina
  • Kent State d. Eastern Michigan
  • Memphis d. Houston
  • Missouri d. Arkansas
  • Ohio d. Akron
  • Oregon d. Oregon State
  • South Alabama d. Coastal Carolina
  • Texas d. Kansas
  • Toledo d. Central Michigan

Saturday, November 24
ESPN College Gameday, live from Clemson, SC
#6 Clemson 34, #3 South Carolina 10

  • #1 Alabama d. #13 Auburn
  • #4 Georgia d. Georgia Tech
  • #7 PENN STATE d. MARYLAND
  • #8 MICHIGAN STATE d. RUTGERS
  • #9 OHIO STATE d. #24 MICHIGAN
  • USC d. #12 Notre Dame
  • #15 Miami d. Pittsburgh
  • TCU d. #16 Oklahoma State
  • #18 NC State d. North Carolina
  • #20 Florida State d. #25 Florida
  • #21 WISCONSIN d. MINNESOTA
  • #22 Utah d. BYU

  • Appalachian State d. Troy
  • Arizona d. Arizona State
  • Arkansas State d. Texas State
  • Boise State d. Utah State
  • Boston College d. Syracuse
  • California d. Colorado
  • Duke d. Wake Forest
  • Florida Atlantic d. Charlotte
  • Fresno State d. San Jose State
  • Georgia State d. Georgia Southern
  • Iowa State d. Kansas State
  • Louisiana Tech d. Western Kentucky
  • Louisville d. Kentucky
  • Marshall d. FIU
  • Middle Tennessee d. UAB
  • NM State d. Liberty
  • North Texas d. UTSA
  • NORTHWESTERN d. ILLINOIS
  • PURDUE d. INDIANA
  • Rice d. Old Dominion
  • San Diego State d. Hawaii
  • SMU d. Tulsa
  • Southern Miss d. UTEP
  • Stanford d. UCLA
  • Temple d. Connecticut
  • Texas A&M d. LSU
  • Texas Tech d. Baylor
  • Tulane d. Navy
  • UL Monroe d. UL Lafayette
  • UNLV d. Nevada
  • Vanderbilt d. Tennessee
  • Wyoming d. New Mexico

medinabuckeye1

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #87 on: August 22, 2018, 10:23:45 AM »
Updated playoff picture based on ELA's scenario so far (uses last week's rankings because this week's haven't been posted yet):
  • 12-0 Bama:  next vs #3 (but not anymore) USCe in the SECCG.  Bama is obviously in with a win.  If they lose that ends UGA's chances and, at 12-1 they would obviously get in ahead of any other non-Champion.  
  • 12-0 Oklahoma:  next vs nr (but not anymore) TCU in the B12CG.  Oklahoma needs to win the B12CG.  With a loss they would have only a slight chance at 12-1 and a non-champion.  
  • 11-1 USCe (will obviously not be #3 anymore):  next vs #1 Bama in the SECCG.  USCe is in the CFP win over Bama and out with a loss, simple as that.  
  • 11-1 UGA:  regular season complete.  UGA looks good at #4 but they need help because teams behind them will win CG's while all they can do is watch and wait and hope.  
  • 11-1 VaTech:  next vs #6 Clemson in the ACCCG.  Like USCe they are in with a win and out with a loss, simple as that.  
  • 11-1 Clemson:  next vs #5 VaTech in the ACCCG.  Clemson's blowout win over previously #3 USCe would likely move them up to #3 but it probably doesn't matter.  If they win the ACCCG they are in.  If they lose they are out.  
  • 11-1 Penn State:  next vs #11 Iowa in the B1GCG.  Same as USCe and VaTech they are in with a win and out with a loss, simple as that.  
  • 10-2 MSU:  regular season complete.  No chance at the CFP.  
  • 10-2 tOSU:  regular season complete.  No chance at the CFP.  
  • 12-0 UCF:  Only a very minimal chance at the CFP at best.  In theory their win over a ranked opponent should help them but they just beat #23 while the team ahead of them just beat #24 and other teams ahead of them (Bama, Clemson) also beat even higher ranked teams this week.  Worse, in CG weekend while they are playing a four-loss and likely still unranked Tulane team the P5 CG's will likely all feature two ranked teams and all except the B12 and PAC will feature two highly ranked teams.  
  • 11-1 Iowa:  next vs #7 PSU in the B1GCG.  Those "goober component" Iowa fans that @iahawk15 was talking about upthread have nothing to fear:  Iowa is in the exact same boat as the rest of the 11-1 P5 CG participants.  Just like USCe, VaTech, Clemson, and Penn State the Hawkeyes are in with a win and out with a loss, simple as that.  

Playoff scenarios:
First off, way back in October 20 when both were unranked, Utah won a home game over USC.  That didn't seem like a big deal at the time but it is now the Pac-S tiebreaker so Washington will play Utah in the PacCG.  The problem for Washington specifically and the PAC in general is that Utah is now 10-2 and their win over a previously 4-7 BYU team will not do much to help their previous #22 ranking much so 10-2 and previously #17 Washington will be playing 10-2 and previously #22 Utah in a game that nobody outside of the PAC will be very interested in.  

Things we know for sure:
  • The SEC will have an undefeated or 1-loss Champion:  Either 13-0 Bama or 12-1 USCe.  Either way, the SEC Champion is in.  
  • The ACC will have a 1-loss Champion:  Either 12-1 Clemson or 12-1 VaTech.  Either way the ACC Champion is in.  
  • The B1G will have a 1-loss Champion:  Either 12-1 Penn State or 12-1 Iowa.  Either way the B1G Champion is in.  

That is three slots that are taken.  The fourth is Oklahoma's to lose so all eyes will be on the B12CG.  If Oklahoma wins they will finish 13-0 and get either the #1 or #2 seed depending on the Bama/USCe outcome.  

If Oklahoma loses it gets interesting.  The plausible candidates would be:
  • 12-1 B12CG loser Oklahoma  
  • 12-1 SECCG loser Alabama 
  • 11-1 Georgia  
  • 13-0 UCF (if they beat Tulane)
Everybody else either has two losses (Pac Champ) or has two losses AND is a non-Champion (ACC and B1G losers, USCe if they lose, MSU, tOSU).  

I think that a 12-1 Bama would get the first shot.  If Bama beats USCe then it would be between 12-1 Oklahoma and 11-1 Georgia.  In that case the committee might decide that sending undefeated AAC Champion UCF was less controversial than choosing between two 1-loss non-Champions from different P5 leagues (SEC/B12).  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #88 on: August 22, 2018, 10:44:43 AM »
My thoughts on UCF (specifically in this scenario) and non-P5 teams in general wrt the CFP:

First, UCF has one thing going for them and one thing going against them as compared to a typical non-P5 team:

What they have going for them is that they start out ranked.  They are #21 in the preseason AP and #23 in the preseason Coaches Poll and that does help.  A lot of times non-P5 teams start out unranked and even if they go undefeated it takes 2-3 weeks to get into the rankings and another month or more to get any serious traction.  In this scenario UCF starts ranked and heading into their last game before the CG's ELA had them ranked #10 and playing #23 USF so that helps.  

What they have going against them is that their OOC schedule sucks.  Their four OOC opponents are:
  • An FCS team (SCST)
  • A CUSA team that ELA has finishing 9-3 (FAU)
  • An ACC team that ELA has finishing 1-11 (UNC)
  • An ACC team that ELA has finishing 3-9 (Pitt)

The problem here is that the two P5 teams that they played finished a combined 4-20.  That, beating a CUSA team, an FCS team, and a bunch of AAC teams just doesn't prove much.  It does help that at least USF was ranked when they played but UCF's win will knock USF out of the rankings and if UCF wins the AACCG that will ensure that Tulane will also finish unranked so UCF's end-of-season record against ranked teams will be 0-0.  No P5 team without any wins over a ranked team would be seriously considered for the CFP and UCF shouldn't be either.  

If you are a non-P5 team and you want a shot at the CFP then, as far as I am concerned you need to schedule some monster OOC match-ups because your conference schedule is NOTHING like those of a P5 team.  

Cincydawg

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Re: ELA 2018 Game by Game Predictions
« Reply #89 on: August 22, 2018, 11:07:48 AM »
UCF gets some helmet from beating Auburn last year.

Few P5 teams wants to schedule a really good nonP5 team for obvious reasons.  Of course scheduling a team 6-8 years out doesn't give you much clue they could be good.  If your team had scheduled UCF for 2018 in 2012, it would have been a so what.

Boise State has had this issue obviously, few P5s wanted to give them a shot.

Bama got in over them last year and I suspect that would continue.  

 

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