The downside to the FCS ban? 14 of these every week in September, more or less.
Buffalo Bulls at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Thursday @ 7:00 - Minneapolis, MN - BTN
P.J. Fleck turned Western Michigan into the top Group of 5 team last year through boundless energy, that translated onto the recruiting trail, building a roster in Kalamazoo that was closer to a mid-tier Big Ten team than a MAC team. Now we'll see how quickly he can jump start a Minnesota program that has been middling for a while now, nothing more, nothing less. Jerry Kill seemed like the right hire, and the medical issues, and whatever else went on there was a tough break. Kill was at an age where he seemed like a lifer if he won. The question with Fleck is even if he wins, will he stay? For now, that's a problem Minnesota would like to have. Oddly, the first quarterback he faces is Muskegon, MI native Tyree Jackson, who spurned an offer from Fleck and WMU, his local school, to attend Buffalo. The kid is huge. He was already 6'4" 210 coming out of high school, and now as a sophomore is already 6'7" and 245. He was injured, and didn't play against Fleck in a 38-0 loss last year. The Gophers just want to keep him in the pocket, and force him to throw, where he struggled mightily with accuracy a year ago, finishing last among qualified MAC starters with a 53.7 completion percentage and a 104.7 passer rating. Considering even more rests on his shoulders this year, with the graduation of Jordan Johnson, and his 1,040 rushing yards, the MAC's lowest output offense shouldn't put up much of a fight.
MINNESOTA 43, BUFFALO 7
#2 Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana Hoosiers
Thursday @ 8:00 - Bloomington, IN - ESPN
Nothing like kicking off the season with a conference game on a Thursday night. At least with Kevin Wilson returning to Bloomington in his first game, that gives it a little kick. New Hoosier coach Tom Allen is doing nothing to diminish the importance of this first game, calling it the most important home game in school history. Wilson had the Indiana program headed in the right direction, and now he's forced to try and pick apart a defense that may be their best yet. That defense is built around Tegray Scales and Rashard Fant, two guys that arguably give the Hoosiers the best linebacker and the best cornerback in the conference. I'm pretty sure we've never said that before. But to have a chance, they need to get back to running the ball, as they had with Jordan Howard, and Tevin Coleman before him. Last year, Indiana's 3.6 ypc (worse than any Big Ten team save Rutgers and Purdue) forced them to be too one dimensional, and interceptions absolutely killed them. The Buckeyes feature the nastiest pass rush in the conference, and probably the nation, with a 3 man edge rusher rotation unlike any other roster. If Indiana can't run the ball, and keep those guys guessing, Indiana won't have a shot. Indiana famously takes their promotional photos when they host Ohio State, it's the only time the stadium is full of red, but for this one, coming off back to back bowls, and drawing Ohio State in the season opener, I think Buckeyes making the trip may find that obtaining tickets is a bit harder. They have to weather that early emotional storm and then feast on the fact that Indiana can't run the ball enough to have any sort of effective play action.
OHIO STATE 41, INDIANA 16
#8 Washington Huskies at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Friday @ 8:00 - Piscataway, NJ - FS1
So we have a team coming off a College Football Playoff appearance taking on a team that went 0-9 in Big Ten play, losing by an average of 30 points per game? Should be fun. The cross country travel is never fun, but the Huskies catch a break by it being a night game, 5:00 Seattle time, rather than a noon start. Not that it's an advantage they'll need. Preseason All-American linebacker Azeem Victor has been suspended for the game by Chris Peterson, but again, I doubt it matters. These teams met in the season opener in Seattle a year ago, when nobody knew how good Washington was, or how bad Rutgers was. But a 24-0 1st quarter lead tipped us off. The story last year was John Ross returning from an injury that cost him all of 2015, and doing so with a 90 yard, 2 TD day, with an additional kick return TD. Janarion Grant for Rutgers put on his own show with 160 all purpose yards and a touchdown. Grant was having himself a season until he lost his season in Game 4 against Iowa. Now he wants to do to Washington in his return, what Ross did last year. He was a huge loss, Rutgers scoring 7 points or less in 6 of the 9 games without him. How much will his return help? Tough to say until we see how close to 100% he is, but Rutgers didn't go from not great to awful until he left. He impacts so many areas of the game, namely setting up a struggling offense as the Big Ten's best returner. The upgrade at quarterback should be noticeable in Louisville grad transfer Kyle Bolin, who played most of five games in 2015 when Lamar Jackson was hurt. This is still an offense that has a long way to go, and with a quarterback and offensive coordinator (Jerry Kill) who are new to the program, it's too much to expect instant change.
WASHINGTON 42, RUTGERS 16
Utah State Aggies at #9 Wisconsin Badgers
Friday @ 9:00 - Madison, WI - ESPN
This ain't the same Utah State program that nearly beat Bucky in Madison a few years ago, and inspired King Barry to poach their coach to replace Bielema. After three straight bowls to start his career, Matt Wells' team fell to 3-9 last year, with their lone conference win coming against 1-11 Fresno State. The Aggies only return 8 total starters, so thinking that will be a one year hiccup is probably a mistake. Wisconsin has to fill the void from linebacking injuries suffered in the preseason, so it's much better to be starting out like this than against a team like LSU. It's tough to see Utah State's front getting any push against a nasty Badger front seven, even with the injuries suffered. Wells used quarterback Kent Myers' legs a decent amount last year, averaging nearly 10 carries per game. He's going to need to get at least that amount, not counting sacks, to try and get anything moving. He won't, and I can't see them crossing midfield absent a fluky long play, until the Badger starters have long since removed their helmets for the day. Defensively, things aren't much better for Utah State, graduating their five leading tacklers, and four of the six players who totaled more than one sack. Consistent play from Hornibrook, to instill confidence that he's the guy is really all Wisconsin is looking for. Aside from that they could name their score if they so choose.
WISCONSIN 46, UTAH STATE 3
Akron Zips at #6 Penn State Nittany Lions
NOON - State College, PA - ABC
The last time pre-season excitement was this high in Happy Valley? It's been a while. Their #6 ranking is their highest preseason ranking since being #3 to start 1999, and only their second top 10 preseason ranking since then. Last year, on October 22 Penn State trailed #2 Ohio State big, looking at a 3-3 record that included an embarrassing loss to Pitt, a blowout loss in Ann Arbor, and was only bolstered by a pair of narrow escapes against Temple and Minnesota. Then with a few good bounces, everything changed. The Lions roared to the finish, won their first Big Ten title since 2008, and gave USC a hell of a Rose Bowl. Now they want more. Primarily they want to avoid a September that renders anything they do in October, November and December not enough to earn a CFP bid. Akron may let us know something about Penn State's defense. Thomas Woodson is arguably the MAC's best quarterback, and certainly it's most experienced, entering his fourth year as a starter. They also feature Ohio State transfer Warren Ball in the backfield, a one time blue chip recruit. He had 181 yards on only 25 carries a year ago, before suffering a season ending injury in the second game of the year, against Wisconsin. But when he went out, he had already put up 71 yards on over 10 ypc against Bucky, the Big Ten's best run defense. But can Akron do anything to slow down the terrifying Penn State offense? Akron had the 2nd worst run defense in the MAC last year, so expect Barkley to get his stats, and then pass the baton to Miles Sanders, who could easily put up 100 yards of his own.
PENN STATE 51, AKRON 14
Maryland Terrapins at #23 Texas Longhorns
NOON - Austin, TX - FS1
Kind of an under the radar Week 1 Power Five matchup is this one. Also odd that Texas is playing a noon home game this early in the season. Charlie Strong definitely did not leave the cupboard bare for Tom Herman, but I also think people are getting a little ahead of themselves on just how close Texas is to being back, by ranking them to open the year. I still think the Longhorns are a year away. D.J. Durkin certainly has the Terrapin fanbase ignited, but he was almost starting from scratch after some horrible recruiting by Randy Edsall. In his first full recruiting class though, Durkin brought in the #18 class nationally, #4 in the Big Ten, led by eight 4* recruits. The problem is the other three classes making up the bulk of the roster didn't include a single top 40 class, and had eight 4* recruits COMBINED. So give him time, but both programs appear to be headed in the right direction. Kind of makes you wish this game was in 2017 instead of 2019. If Herman had stayed a year longer in Columbus, these two would have already had an OC/DC matchup in The Game in 2015 during Durkin's one year at Michigan under Harbaugh. Shane Buechele was anointed as the next great Texas quarterback at this time last year, and initially looked the part. But his late season struggles, and maybe not being the right fit for the kind of offense Herman wants to run makes you wonder how long he'll even be the starter. Durkin is going with sophomore Tyrrell Pigrome as his starter, and Maryland fans better hope he's made some strides. He's certainly athletic, but his arm was shockingly bad for a quarterback at this level last year. His accuracy is going to be a major concern. While I like both coaching hires, and the trajectories of both programs, Herman took over a much better recruiting situation than Durkin did. So even in Year 1, Texas' roster is still farther ahead than Maryland Year 2.
TEXAS 34, MARYLAND 21
Bowling Green Falcons at Michigan State Spartans
NOON - East Lansing, MI - ESPNU
I don't think I'm being a homer in saying their is no school more ready to turn the page than Michigan State. After the best three year run for the program in half a century, things came crashing down with the worst season since 1991, which oddly itself came on the heels of probably what was previously the best run of success for the program since the mid-60s ('97-'90). Bowling Green had a similar fate, going from 10-3 MAC Champs in 2015, their second in three years, to 4-8 in 2016. At least they could point to massive roster turnover and a coaching change. Mike Jenks wants to throw the ball around the yard, and in 2016, he simply didn't have the targets. Only 1 of the Falcons' top 8 receivers is gone, so they should take a major step forward there. Can the Spartans defend it? The corners look to be improved, but it will matter little if they can't get after the quarterback. One of the most relentless blitz pressure teams over the past few seasons, the pass rush totally disappeared last season. The dismissals of Josh King and Auston Roberson leaves the Spartans very thin still on that line. If Bowling Green is going to pull the upset, and likely send Michigan State into a complete nosedive, the need to keep Michigan State out of the end zone. Sparty has the running backs to control the clock, and they'll get their yards. But the Falcons cannot afford a repeat of last year where their 87% red zone score allowed defensive rate was bad, but their 80.4% TD allowed was unfathomably bad. In 46 red zone trips in 2016, Bowling Green forced 1 fumble, 3 turnovers on downs and 5 field goal attempts. The other 37 trips resulted in touchdowns. By comparison, Michigan State was the worst in that metric in the Big Ten, and still held teams out of the end zone 68% of the time. Bowling Green will get their chunk plays, but Michigan State will be able to wear them down enough to grind one out late, that will be closer than expected.
MICHIGAN STATE 31, BOWLING GREEN 24
Ball State Cardinals at Illinois Fighting Illini
NOON - Champaign, IL - BTN
Year 1 of Lovie Smith left a lot to be desired. How hot is the seat already in Year 2? Tough to say. A solid year of turning the tide in recruiting could have have helped, but the Illini, even with a 27 man class, still ranked #11 in the conference, ahead of the three schools who had coaching changes. Even in state, it seems like an uphill battle, only taking 2 of the top 13 kids in Illinois, and none of the top 5, the same number as Duke. For a MAC bottom feeder, Ball State does have a guy in James Gilbert who can cause the Illini's putrid run defense some problems. The Illinois defense held their own against the pass a year ago, surrendering only 185 ypg (granted at 7.2 ypa), but the run defense, giving up 220 ypg was a different story. The 5'8" James Gilbert ran for over 1,330 yards a year ago, with a five game stretch in the middle of the season going over 120 yards each week, including a 264 yard effort against Buffalo. With a full offseason to gameplan, he's more difficult to stop than he is to plan for. Ball State doesn't move him around much, and he only caught one pass a season ago. Under center for Illinois, it seems like Chayce Crouch is back up. He dazzled against Purdue, completing 71% of his passes, and running for 137 yards, but was lost to an injury after a win over Rutgers. Jeff George Jr. was solid, but Crouch seems like the better option. VT transfer Dwayne Lawson, by way of JUCO, was supposed to be the answer, but he couldn't get eligible. Crouch does get Mike Dudek back, the Illini's best receiver from 2015, who missed all of 2016, and he joins Malik Turner, who came out of nowhere to average 4.4 rpg, good for 5th in the Big Ten. Illinois is a sneaky contender for the best WR duo in the conference if Dudek regains his 2015 form. Ball State, at 319.7 ypg allowed, had the most porous pass defense in the MAC, and their 7 interceptions in 480 attempts was easily the lowest INT rate. As bad as the Illinois run defense is, I'll take it against Gilbert over that Ball State secondary against Turner-Dudek.
ILLINOIS 31, BALL STATE 23
Wyoming Cowboys at Iowa Hawkeyes
NOON - Iowa City, IA - BTN
I think this is one of the sneaky great games from Week 1. Iowa has the better roster, but a lot of uncertainty at quarterback. Wyoming has, what I would call the best quarterback in the country you've never heard of, but I give this board enough credit to say you've heard of him. On some boards I've seen Josh Allen as high as the #2 quarterback in the 2018 NFL Draft. Remember last year, Iowa suffered an upset defeat to North Dakota State in September. Well current Wyoming coach Craig Bohl built a good chunk of that team, and they certainly didn't have player with Allen's NFL pedigree. But Wyoming doesn't have North Dakota State's defense. What can Iowa fans expect from their quarterback? Tough to say. You watch them in shorts, Nathan Stanley blows Tyler Wiegers out of the water. So just why was he unable to win the job until the week before the opener? You can ask Michigan fans with Shane Morris or Michigan State fans with Andrew Maxwell or Penn State fans with Christian Hackenburg, just to name a few in recent years, even going back to Justin Zwick at Ohio State, not to leave anybody out, how sometimes the guy under center with the better intangibles just works out better. Like when Harbaugh took Rudock/Speight over Morris; Dantonio took Cook over Maxwell; PSU moved on from Hackenburg to McSorley; or Tressell flipped from Zwick to Smith. Not to say that's who Stanley is, but it makes me nervous when the guy with clearly better tools struggles to win a job. It's going to be on that Hawkeye offensive line to bully a Cowboy defense that is back loaded in terms of talent. Wyoming will have to bring pressure early, force some 3rd and longs, because they can't win short yardage battles up fron if Iowa stays ahead of the chains. Usually when a game swings almost solely on the effectiveness of an Iowa offensive line, that's a good thing.
IOWA 34, WYOMING 24
Nevada Wolfpack at Northwestern Wildcats
3:30 - Evanston, IL - BTN
Northwestern hopes to build on their 2016 finish, and avoid the kind of start that buried them last season with a 1-3 open. After that, Northwestern went 6-3, with two of those losses being games they had a shot to win against top 10 Ohio State and Wisconsin teams. The Wildcats had too much power at the skill positions to think that the offense that mustered only 16 ppg in September, including a 9-7 loss to FCS Illinois State, would continue. They scored 38 or more points in 5 of their final 9 games. Nevada hands the controls of its football program over to Arizona State WR coach Jay Norvell, putting an end to the four year Brian Polian era that never saw Nevada finish over .500 in the Mountain West Conference. Going back to the last year of Chris Ault, the program has yet to finish better than 4-4 in conference play since jumping from the WAC to the Mountain West in 2012. Polian didn't exactly leave a stockpile of talent either. Nevada has returning players at running back and receiver, but who will throw the ball, or block for them, is a major, major question mark. This from a team that "overachieved" at 5-7 a year ago. Based on S&P+, they were #124 our of 128 FBS teams, so the starting point may even be lower than it appears to be. Ty Gangi was the presumed heir apparant at quarterback, but didn't look good a year ago, so it may be Alabama transfer David Cornwell. Either way, they don't have the tools for Matt Mumme to run his Air Raid offense. Defensively, Nevada returns everyone from arguably the worst defense in the FBS. Justin Jackson should run wild, and Clayton Thorson should be ready to make the next step.
NORTHWESTERN 43, NEVADA 13
Purdue Boilermakers vs. #16 Louisville Cardinals
7:30 - Indianapolis, IN - FOX
As far as these Week 1 neutral site marquee games go, this one fails to really get one excited. Purdue has pushed the reset button yet again, but I think for the first time has real reason to think they got it right. The problem is just how far the program has fallen under the previous two staffs. There is some talent at the skill positions, but on the line and on defense, it is ugly. Jeff Brohm is certainly leaving behind a better roster at Western Kentucky than the one he is inheriting in West Lafayette. Just to make things more pleasant, it's unclear if David Blough will be healthy enough to go. Consistency at quarterback, or more specifically lack thereof, was what the Darrell Hazell era will be most remembered for. Not necessarily in terms of play, but in the mind-boggling way in which Hazell handled his quarterbacks. Freshman Danny Etling appeared to win the job with great play down the stretch in 2013, only to lose the job to Austin Appleby in 2014 due to Hazell's quick trigger. Then he did the same to Appleby in 2015, handing it off to freshman David Blough. Blough is the guy, there is no doubt now, and only this injury could derail that. The problem is the quarterback on the other side is the defending Heisman Trophy winner. For as good as Lamar Jackson was early, he did struggle big time late. The lowest Adjusted QBR he had in the first 9 games was 69.7 against Duke. Over the last 4 games his highest was 75.6 in a 3 interception game against Kentucky, and was at 31.7 against Houston and 28.0 against LSU. He scored 45 touchdowns in the first 8 games (5.6 TDpg), and had 6 over the final 4 (1.5). The main problem was his offensive line was horrible, and the Cardinals lost their final 3 games. Purdue however doesn't have what it takes to exploit that, the best they can do is keep in the pocket, where his accuracy also suffered over the final half of the year. Teams who got pressure with four, like Houston and LSU, gave this team fits. Purdue isn't that team.
LOUISVILLE 45, PURDUE 20
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Nebraska Cornhuskers
8:00 - Lincoln, NE - BTN
Arkansas State entered 2016 on a string of five straight bowl games, but sputtered to an 0-4 start. They recovered to win 8 of their final 9, including a 34-3 trouncing of Troy, who had just entered the polls at #25, to win their fifth Sun Belt Conference championship in 6 years. Can they keep that momentum rolling into Lincoln? The Red Wolves return of their skill position players, but were decimated in the trenches. Not the way to try and go beat a Power 5 team. They also try to transition to head coach Brian Anderson taking over play calling duties. The one guy that could have caused some headaches was TCU transfer Camoeron Echols-Luper, but after graduating, he decided to transfer to play his final year at Western Kentucky. The Arkansas State defensive line is a whole different animal. Ja'Von Rolland-Jones is the defending Sun Belt Player of the Year, and is as talented as any pass rusher Nebraska will face all year aside from their game with Ohio State. On the interior, Alabama transfer Dee Liner was a one time can't miss top 50 recruit, who should be freed up by Rolland-Jones. The Huskers weren't as bad as their record in 2015, but they probably weren't as good in 2016. Tommy Armstrong could be infuriating with his lack of ball security, but I'm not quite sure where all the optimism surrounding Tanner Lee is coming from. In two seasons at Tulane, he had an adjusted QBR of 34.7 and 29.0. For as much as I scoffed at the "O'Korn will be great with better players around him at Michigan talk," I do the same here. All of the reports are positive, but he has a long way to go to make me a believer after how bad he was at Tulane. This game will be won with the Nebraska front seven manhandling the Arkansas State line.
NEBRASKA 34, ARKANSAS STATE 13
*****BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK*****
#11 Michigan Wolverines vs. #17 Florida Gators
3:30 - Arlington, TX - ABC
At first glance I thought this was going to be a bloodbath, and it very well still could be. But now I wonder if it's almost reached a point where Florida is bound for a rally. The only fly in the ointment to me is that it seems possible that this slow trickle of suspensions is due to players ratting on each other. When that is about sexual assault, that's a good thing. When it's about NCAA violations, that appear to raise no legal issues, it may simply point to a fractured locker room. Nobody doubt that the Gators will bring it on defense, the question is how long can they hold up if they are on the field all day. The Florida offense needs to at least sustain drives and win field position battles. If they can pull this out, it will likely mean they dragged this game down into the muck and won it really, really ugly. You listen to everything McElwain and Nussmeier have been saying, the reason for optimism might be the offensive line, which was awful last year, but sounds much improved. If true, even with all the questions at the skill positions, they may actually be better. They better be, because that Michigan defensive front is as nasty as any they'll see in the SEC. They don't have the depth they had in 2016, but it's Week 1, they are fresh, hungry and healthy. I'm sure Don Brown would like to establish a better rotation by the time of the Penn State game in mid-October, but for now, if those guys need a few extra snaps, they probably have it in them. Michigan is going to have to rely heavily on youth on the outsides of both sides of the ball. Get ready to see lots of first and second year guys at both WR and CB. The loss of Jake Butt hurts, but I have faith in Harbaugh being ok a tight end until he proves me wrong. It may not be the weapon it's been, but it will be steady. Can Chris Evans handle the workload? He was dynamic last year, with 614 yards on 7.0 ypc. But Rutgers was the only game where he had more than 9 touches. And in Michigan's bigger games he disappeared (34 yards on 8 carries against Wisconsin; 8 yards on 4 carries against Michigan State and 18 yards on 6 carries against Ohio State). He was also a big play guy, always a threat, but a lot of his carry charts read like a few carries of nothing, followed by a 20 yard burst. That's fine for your change of pace guy, not so much your go to guy, if that's what he is expected to be now, on 3rd and 2. This is a matchup I'd much rather watch in a bowl game, but both have too many new pieces, and in Florida's case, pieces missing, at this point, for this to likely be a pleasant game to watch. If Michigan wins by 30 it wouldn't shock me, but I'm starting to think Florida hangs around, if only because Michigan doesn't pull away. One of those games that's somehow simultaneously close, but never in doubt.
MICHIGAN 24, FLORIDA 20
