Michigan State (1-0) vs. Bowling Green (0-1) Post Game

[ELA]

Can't believe how long of a wait it's been to get the taste of 2016 out of my mouth, prolonged by an even worse offseason.

I said 4-8.  But if you say OSU, UM, PSU are sure losses, and BG and Rutgers are sure wins, then I have MSU going 2-5 in the 7 toss up games.  So optimistically there is certainly a higher likelihood of doing better than 4 wins.

The starting talent is as good as an Iowa or Minnesota or Northwestern, but this offseason has absolutely ravaged the depth.  If injuries start to mount, 4-8 is probably going to be right on the nose.  If the bad injury luck from 2015 and 2016 turns back into the good luck from 2013 and 2014, 7-5 or even 8-4 is within the realm of possibility.

With 4 home games to open, starting with probably the easiest game on the schedule, the opener against Bowling Green, followed by WMU, ND and Iowa, really nothing other than 0-4 would surprise me.  1-3 is very possible, as is 4-0.

[Brutus Buckeye]

These two traditional powerhouses have squared off twice on the gridiron. Both games in E Lansing.

Sparty won the first game by 3 in 1981, and the second game by 11 in 2007.

Will BG put yet another scare into them?

[ELA]

These two traditional powerhouses have squared off twice on the gridiron. Both games in E Lansing.

Sparty won the first game by 3 in 1981, and the second game by 11 in 2007.

Will BG put yet another scare into them?

Can't speak to the 1981 game.
The 2007 Bowling Green team was solid.  They went 8-4, losing to MSU, and #7 BC with Matt Ryan.  The week before MSU beat them, the Falcons went up to the Metrodome and beat Minnesota.
IIRC Bowling Green couldn't run the ball a lick, but kept completing 15 yard passes on our base 4-3 defense all day by getting slot WRs in mismatches against JLS recruited linebackers.  It was Dantonio's 2nd game as MSU coach.

[ELA]

Yeah, looking up the boxscore, Bowling Green had 25 carries for 47 yards as a team.  And that includes one 17 yard run and a 13 yard QB scramble.  Aside from those two plays it was 23 carries for 17 yards.

But they threw the ball 51 times, and considering their QB had 13 carries and nobody else had more than 3, I'm guessing a number of those were sacks, so they probably at least attempted to pass on about 80% of their plays.  And it's not like they were down big, MSU didn't extend it to a 2 score margin until midway through the 4th.

[ELA]

MSU loses WR Brandon Sowards for the year with an ACL injury.

Was the starting punt returner last year, but was pretty awful at it.  Mainly just fair catches.

Sounds like Josh Butler will start opposite Layne at CB, with Josiah Scott still a little nicked up, but he should play some.

AJ Arcuri the only other injury of note.

Six true freshmen in the two deep.

[Brutus Buckeye]

Couldn't've been that bad. 

OSU was dead last in the Big Ten last year, with only one punt return over 20 yards. 

[ELA]

Couldn't've been that bad.

OSU was dead last in the Big Ten last year, with only one punt return over 20 yards.

He had one 20 yarder, which was the longest on the season for MSU.

He had 15 for 94 yards, a 6.3 average.

I think the biggest problem was the number he fair caught that he absolutely didn't need to.

There's been talk that the 2* kid from Florida they added late might get a crack at it.  Seems like a weird thing to burn a shirt on, but as an undersized 2* burner, he may be a career return specialist, so why not.

[847badgerfan]

I think 8-9 wins is a definite possibility.

[ELA]

I don't see any way they beat OSU, UM or PSU, particularly in Columbus or Ann Arbor for those two.

So 9 basically means they can't have a single slip up.  Hell, just to get to 7-5, they need to go 5-2 in their toss up games.

[Brutus Buckeye]

Sandbagging.

Michigan-MSU is a throw out the records rivalry game where stats and stars get turned on their ear. 

[ELA]

Sandbagging.

Michigan-MSU is a throw out the records rivalry game where stats and stars get turned on their ear.

Is it?
I think you could make a pretty compelling argument that the better team has won every game since the T.J. Duckett game in 2001.  Prior to that you'd probably have to go back to 1995.  Over the last 21 meetings, I'd argue the better team is 20-1, including 15 in a row.  I bet you'd have a hard time finding a rivalry where you can less "throw out the record books."  It happened 3 times in the 90s, so maybe that's in our memory banks, but even prior to that, going back 60+ years, I can count maybe 6 times?  ('69, '78, '90', '93, '95 and '01) the better team lost.

[ELA]

Four seniors in the two deeps.  None on defense.

Of the four, only OC Brian Allen is a starter.

QB Damion Terry, RB Gerald Holmes and LT Dennis Finley are the other three.

[ELA]

Pretty much everything we thought was right.

Scott needs to get his head right, the team needs him.

The presumed strengths were, the presumed weaknesses were.

I was hoping the safeties would be serviceable, they were awful.  I was hoping the WRs would be serviceable, and they we're really good.  So I guess that's a wash.

It was 35-10, but LJ Scott's two fumbles we're literally a 14 point swing.  He fumbled on 1st and goal and the 1, and his other fumble was returned for a TD.  Those two fumbles were the only reason it wasn't 42-3.  Considering I picked a 7 point win, that was certainly a pleasant surprise.

[PortlandSpartan]

I'm pleased by the performance. Other than LJ and a sluggish first quarter it was a solid beating. 

Next week could be interesting.