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Topic: Lock of the Week

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bamajoe

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Lock of the Week
« on: August 24, 2017, 08:36:25 PM »
Hello, football fans. Drew has requested that I dig out the old crystal ball and see what it says about games this fall. The first week's games are tough but I see one down toward the bottom that looks like a lock to me. Georgia is -13.5 at home over Appy State. I know Appy beat Michigan about 6 years ago but Georgia with virtually their whole team coming back including Chubb and Michel, their all world quarterback, their whole defense and playing at home should be able to cover 13.5 points.

We would like other posters to pitch in and pick your own locks also. I don't want to be the only one proving my ignorance.  
« Last Edit: September 10, 2017, 05:21:18 PM by Drew4UTk »

Drew4UTk

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2017, 10:58:11 PM »
Awesome, Joe!!!!

looking forward to hearing your take for the rest of the season... you've always shot a pretty high percentage.

MichiFan87

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2017, 11:35:10 PM »

That Michigan game was 10 years ago, though they played each other again when Hoke was coach, which was a blowout win.

Georgia's biggest victory margin last year was 14 points over South Carolina and UL Lafayette. They only beat Nicholls State by TWO POINTS, Missouri by 1, and Kentucky by 3.

App State took Tennessee to OT and won 10 games. Yes, they got dominated at home by Miami FL, but their only other loss was by 4 to Troy, who challenged Clemson.

Meanwhile, I'll take Temple +17 against Notre Dame.
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
― Bo Schembechler

bamajoe

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #3 on: August 25, 2017, 03:33:05 PM »
Those are great points. Georgia did struggle last year and they may struggle again this year.  I am simply looking at what I believe to be gross mismatches all over the field in Georgia's favor. If Georgia can't cover 13.5 against Appy State they are in trouble again. I am looking for something like 42-10 in Georgia's favor.

ALA2262

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2017, 12:58:04 PM »
I like to do an Underdog Lock of the Week, although the last time I tried it a couple of years ago I didn't do so well. Usually I focus on a home team that I believe will win SU. But I am not picking the Upset Lock of the Week. I am picking the Underdog Lock of the Week.

Week One ( I know, I know we had some games last week but that was not Week One. That is the first week in which ALL teams are eligible to schedule games. That was not the case last week.) Anyway.

Florida +3.5 vs Michigan. I believe UF wins SU.





« Last Edit: August 31, 2017, 05:10:05 PM by ALA2262 »

Cincydawg

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #5 on: August 29, 2017, 09:49:56 AM »
NCSU over USCe big.

I think NCSU is going to have a 9-3 kind of year and look good in game one, winning something like 35-17.

Oklahoma State also blows out Tulsa big and beats the line of -18.

I think Louisville pummels Purdue and beats -25.

I like Michigan over Florida also, but not more than 4 points probably, close low scoring boring game, so boring both squads decide this isn't their year and they forfeit the rest of the season.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-week-1-lines-game-odds-best-games-could-be-the-closest/


MrNubbz

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2017, 08:50:07 PM »
 I don't want to be the only one proving my ignorance.  
Well I can begin & end right there!Use to be pawn in the wagering wars.Hooks & the Vig left me a tad bit unsettled and a few farthings short.Good Luck,if I see something enticing I may chime in - then you bet the other way
"The problem with the Rat Race is,even if you win you're still just a Rat" - Lily Tomlin

MrNubbz

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2017, 09:02:20 PM »
Clucko the Chicken likes UCLA....hmm
"The problem with the Rat Race is,even if you win you're still just a Rat" - Lily Tomlin

MrNubbz

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #8 on: August 31, 2017, 04:26:25 PM »
Leaning toward Michigan,while they lost a lot from last season Fla will be woefully thin with starting Rb & WR's out.Hurst & Gary should dominate up front.M should win this by at least 7pts
"The problem with the Rat Race is,even if you win you're still just a Rat" - Lily Tomlin

bamajoe

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #9 on: August 31, 2017, 06:07:45 PM »
Cincy, I think the NCSU USC game will be close. I think Muschamp did a very good job rallying SC last year and that confidence should extend into the new season. Jake Bentley appears to be a very good qb although only a sophomore. If I were to take this game I would go with the chickens.

bamajoe

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #10 on: August 31, 2017, 06:11:46 PM »
I tend to agree with you about Florida-Michigan. Initially I was going with Florida, but how can a team focus when ten players including their best receiver-punt returner and their best rb are suspended? I would take Michigan in this game.

bamajoe

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Re: Lock of the Week (1)
« Reply #11 on: September 04, 2017, 02:53:22 PM »
I hope yall bet the farm on Georgia last weekend because if you did you would now own two farms.

This weeks menu looks a lot more enticing as there are a number of games that look enticing to me. Penn State -20.5 over Pitt looks intriguing to me. That is a rivalry game and Pitt ain't bad. Penn State may be good but I don't see them covering 20.5.

Northwestern is -3 against Duke at Duke. Duke probably wins this game straight up.

Notre Dame is favored by 6 over Georgia. Why? Georgia probably wins this game straight up. Easy money.

Those are all good bets but they don't include my lock. That honor goes to Minnesota who is +1 to Oregon State. I know the game is in Oregon but Oregon State has been horrible through their first two games. Minnesota has a decent team and PF Fleck as coach. Take Minnesota and the point.

FWIW, for information purposes I am using Danny Sheridan's odds.

Drew4UTk

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Re: Lock of the Week (1)
« Reply #12 on: September 05, 2017, 11:04:40 AM »
i'd have agreed with you concerning UGA up until the announcement the starting QB is out... that's gonna take a toll. 

whatever UT is favored over Indiana State, half it and take the under.  they are going to be still worn out from last nights game. 

MichiFan87

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Re: Lock of the Week (1)
« Reply #13 on: September 05, 2017, 05:02:04 PM »
Minnesota was horrible against Buffalo, too. They could barely run the ball even though they return two very productive RBs from last year's team. Their QBs are even worse than Mitch Leidner was last year..... Oregon State isn't good, either, but they at least showed some semblance of an offense against Colorado State.

Not sure what to make of Notre Dame - Georgia, but Temple was pretty decent last year, and the domers dominated them, while Georgia is without their starting QB.

Northwestern certainly didn't look good against Nevada, but they have a decent backfield and a solid defense. They tend to play their worst in September, but they did win 24-13 last year.
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
― Bo Schembechler

bamajoe

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Re: Lock of the Week (1)
« Reply #14 on: September 10, 2017, 08:07:00 AM »
Damn. I must be a frigging genius. I was right about all four games including my lock who won by 30+ points. :91:

Drew4UTk

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Re: Lock of the Week (1)
« Reply #15 on: September 10, 2017, 05:20:40 PM »
that was a clean sweep, Joe... you're hot this season so far!!!

bamajoe

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #16 on: September 11, 2017, 01:16:59 PM »
Well it is time again to get ze ole crystal out agin and see whut it says. If you had bet the house the first week and the farm the second you would now have two houses and two farms. This week you can bet the boat.


I have looked at the list this week and it is much tougher than the candy that was all over the place last week.There are still a number of good plays out there such as Minnesota -8.5 at home versus MTSU. Minny should be able to cover based on how they handled Oregon State and how MTSU got slammed by Vandy. I would take Minny and give the points.

Sorry Drew but I think Florida despite their miserable performance against Michigan should be able to handle Tennessee at home and cover Danny's 5.5 points. I did not like Tennessee's performance against Georgia Tech. I would take Florida and give the points.

I would also take OSU giving Army 30.5 at the Horseshoe. Ohio State is down after getting smacked and how will this team react to adversity. Army will feel the wrath. Take OSU.

Those are all good plays but not my lock. I am going to take a team that is 0-2 and on the road. That would be NC-7.5 at Old Dominion. NC played even with Louisville for three quarters and are due for a breakout against a cupcake. Take NC and give the points. They have too many good players. This is my lock.  

Drew4UTk

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #17 on: September 11, 2017, 01:28:11 PM »
sniping teams i have attachment to is difficult at best, Joe... I like to think I'm reasonable.  UT @ UF doesn't feel right to me.  I expect it to be played tight- and just when i say that someone takes the scoreboard operator to task. 

all the same, I expect UF by 10 (if not 14)- but i don't think it'll happen because of their O.  QD, UT's QB, has a tendency to stare down passers and not check... i've seen him check off ONCE this season thus far... I've seen him throw into coverage (I'm NOT talking about one defender, either, but multiple) at least five times.  I've made the comment each time "he won't get by with that against UF"... and i mean it.  He won't.  but, he's encountered nothing to discourage him from trying against the Sycamore's and the Jacket's.  He threw two intercepts Saturday, but they were just boneheaded passes.  all of this means, to cut to the chase: UF will have at least 14pts off t/o's, likely pick 6's.  I don't expect any yardage for UT to come easy... I DO expect, however, that UT will get at least one score via special teams- a return either KO or punt.  Fil-Aimes, Berry, or Calloway are all dangerous returners, even against the gator's. 

bamajoe

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #18 on: September 11, 2017, 01:54:17 PM »
I think QB play with both teams' starters young, untested and prone to mistakes should be fairly even. The difference I think is in the defensive lines. Tech pushed Tennessee all over the field with impunity and Florida's o-line should be comparable to Tech's. I know Michigan o-line ate up and spit out Florida's d-line but Tech is not Michigan.That along with 3/4 points for home field advantage gives Florida the advantage, imo.  

bamajoe

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2017, 04:36:35 PM »
I have looked at Danny Sheridan's numbers for this week and there are three games I see as good plays. I think Notre Dame -4 at Michigan State is a good play. Notre Dame played Georgia well and I think they cover.

I like Nebraska -11.5 at home against a miserable Rutgers team. I know Nebraska is not a strong team but should cover as they are due to have a decent game.

My lock is South Carolina -8 at home against Louisiana Tech. I know South Carolina lost their best player but they should handle Louisiana.

Fwiw, I'm 9-0 on these predictions.

Drew4UTk

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #20 on: September 20, 2017, 08:00:46 PM »
you're running a tight ship this year, Sir!!!! keep it up!!!

MrNubbz

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #21 on: September 22, 2017, 07:17:31 AM »
My lock is South Carolina -8 at home against Louisiana Tech. I know South Carolina lost their best player but they should handle Louisiana.

Fwiw, I'm 9-0 on these predictions.
Hmm,if I call this play in that would put you at a still respectable 9-1.J/K fine work Joe see if I can contibute
"The problem with the Rat Race is,even if you win you're still just a Rat" - Lily Tomlin

bamajoe

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #22 on: September 22, 2017, 03:52:50 PM »
Nubbz, you could be correct. I would love to have your takes on games.

Cincydawg

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #23 on: September 24, 2017, 09:24:37 AM »
I think I am running an 0-fer.  Bamajoe has missed one game only so far?

South Caroline escaped and didn't cover, I think that's it.

bamajoe

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #24 on: September 28, 2017, 04:59:00 PM »
Well, guys, the winning streak had to end. Maybe, I can start a new one this weekend. I have looked at Danny's numbers and they are really difficult this weekend. There is one that I think is a real good play. Take Texas and give up 4.5 points at Iowa State. I think Texas is on the verge of becoming a good team.

bamajoe

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #25 on: September 29, 2017, 04:27:31 PM »
Well, I've already won this one since it was a Thursday night game. I hope yall had time to bet and rake in the big bucks. I am going to give you a couple more. I like USC - 5 at Washington State and FSU-7 at Wake Forrest.

bamajoe

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #26 on: October 06, 2017, 09:01:51 AM »
I'm a little late this week as I have been vacationing down at Hilton Head. Last week I got a little bit too arrogant and after correctly predicting Texas' over Iowa State I added two more; a loss and a push. So I went 1-1-1. I am now officially in a slump.

I have looked at Danny's numbers and I think I see one. LSU has looked very poor this year with terrible outings against Miss State, Syracuse and Troy. Florida has not been a world beater with a poor outing against Michigan and narrow wins over Kentucky and Tennessee. Nevertheless, Florida believes they can win and are playing at home. Take Florida and give the 2.5 points. It's a lock.

bamajoe

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #27 on: October 19, 2017, 03:52:54 PM »
I didn't do one last week because I was kind of bummed out after missing the Florida-LSU game. I picked Florida but they figured out a way to lose. I have looked at Danny's numbers and I have one that is a guarantee and easy money; Georgia Tech is only -5.5 at home against Wake. Take Tech.  There is no way Wake can keep up with Tech.

MrNubbz

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #28 on: October 20, 2017, 08:17:37 PM »
Like Iowa vs NU getting 1.5.Coming off the bye week.IA is 17-7 ATS in the last 24 games.Only common  foe faced is PSU.Hawks lost 21-19 Wildcats lost 31-7.
"The problem with the Rat Race is,even if you win you're still just a Rat" - Lily Tomlin

bamajoe

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Re: Lock of the Week
« Reply #29 on: October 25, 2017, 04:32:06 PM »
I started a new streak with Georgia Tech over Wake and I believe I have a good play for this week. For some reason Miss State is a 1.5 point favor at A&M where they haven't won since 1937. I believe the house is putting too much into MSU blowing out Kentucky and LSU. Those games were in Starkville. A&M should win this game. Take the guys in the military uniforms and the gift of the point and a half.

 

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