2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[MaximumSam]

Adjusted offense ranking on KenPom

1. Purdue (4)
2. MSU (6)
3. Iowa (7)
4. Maryland (21)
5. Michigan (35)
6. Wisconsin (41)
7. Minny (46)
8. Nebraska (47)
9. Indiana (75)
10. OSU (76)
11. Illinois (79)
12. PSU (115)
13. Rutgers (163)
14. NW (184)

Not shabby with 3 top 10 outfits and 8 top 50, though the bottom half is pretty rough.

[medinabuckeye1]

For the whole weekend (Sat-Mon) all 14 teams played and all seven games came out as projected so there are no changes to the most recent projection.  

This week (Tues-Thurs) all teams except IL and UW play:

• Purdue is at Indiana in a rivalry game that is important to PU for their chance at a B1G Championship and potentially moving up to a #2 seed in the NCAA.  The game is important to IU because they are getting to the point where any additional loss is problematic.  
• MSU v RU is pretty uninteresting.  
• Michigan at Minnesota is important to both.  A win for Minnesota would dramatically improve their NCAA chances while a win for the Wolverines keeps them on the pace in the B1G Championship race.  
• Maryland is at Iowa in a game that is important to both.  If Maryland can win their slim B1G Championship hopes will remain viable and their chance at the BTT #4 seed (double bye) improves greatly.  For Iowa the same is true.  
• Ohio State hosts Northwestern in a game that is close to a must-win for the Buckeyes.  
• Nebraska is at Penn State in a game the Lions can potentially win.  

[medinabuckeye1]

They've obviously checked out. Only made like four FGs in the second half.

Kinda sucks that they've already clinched NIT eligibility. Not that they'll get selected, after finishing exactly .500 with a nine game losing streak.

I don't think they've checked out, I just think that they aren't very good.  They rebound well and play pretty good defense but their offense is offensive.  They don't have enough good ball-handlers or shooters and while Kaleb Wesson is pretty good, he isn't good enough to carry the offense by himself.  That said, at any given time they can be a handful even for a very good team.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

• Purdue is at Indiana in a rivalry game that is important to PU for their chance at a B1G Championship and potentially moving up to a #2 seed in the NCAA.  The game is important to IU because they are getting to the point where any additional loss is problematic.  

I think the game is important to IU because the only way they'll even make the tournament is probably to win out or nearly win out. They have 4 ranked teams remaining on their schedule (3 home, 1 away), and then @IL and vsRU. 
They're 13-12 overall right now, and 4-10 in the B1G. I don't think they make the tournament with anything less than a 5-1 finish (18-13, 9-11), and even then it would be very dicey. What they'd have, if they win at least 3 of those games against PU/@IA/WIS/MSU would be statement wins, and only with that do I think they'd overcome an 18-13 overall record.
But even 2-2 in their next 4 and then winning their final 2, to go 17-14 (8-12), IMHO has them missing the tournament unless they make real noise in the BTT. 

[medinabuckeye1]

I think the game is important to IU because the only way they'll even make the tournament is probably to win out or nearly win out. They have 4 ranked teams remaining on their schedule (3 home, 1 away), and then @IL and vsRU.
They're 13-12 overall right now, and 4-10 in the B1G. I don't think they make the tournament with anything less than a 5-1 finish (18-13, 9-11), and even then it would be very dicey. What they'd have, if they win at least 3 of those games against PU/@IA/WIS/MSU would be statement wins, and only with that do I think they'd overcome an 18-13 overall record.
But even 2-2 in their next 4 and then winning their final 2, to go 17-14 (8-12), IMHO has them missing the tournament unless they make real noise in the BTT.

They are a weird case because most teams with their overall and conference record wouldn't even be anywhere close to the bubble but most teams with those records don't have wins over MSU (on the road no less), Marquette, and Louisville.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

They are a weird case because most teams with their overall and conference record wouldn't even be anywhere close to the bubble but most teams with those records don't have wins over MSU (on the road no less), Marquette, and Louisville.  

True. But with their losses (both the quantity and quality), they have a lot of work to do. They have a schedule ahead of them that gives them opportunity, but they're on the razor's edge. No room for error. 

[bayareabadger]

Of note, UW looks quite rough around the edges. 

This has me feeling maybe more of a 3-3 finish, although each close win perhaps means getting closer to shaking out of it. 

[ELA]

Massey composite rankings (65 rankings), with last week in parenthesis (does not count last night)...

• Duke (1)
• Virginia (3)
• Gonzaga (2)
• Kentucky (5)
• Tennessee (4)
• MICHIGAN STATE (7)
• North Carolina (8)
• MICHIGAN (6)
• Kansas (11)
• Houston (12)
• Texas Tech (13)
• Nevada (10)
• PURDUE (9)
• LSU (17)
• Iowa State (19)
• Florida State (20)
• Louisville (15)
• Virginia Tech (18)
• Marquette (21)
• WISCONSIN (16)
• Villanova (14)
• MARYLAND (22)
• Buffalo (-)
• Auburn (23)
• Mississippi State (-)

• 26. Iowa (24)
• 37. Ohio State (32)
• 44. Nebraska (46)
• 45. Minnesota (47)
• 58. Indiana (48)
• 77. Illinois (84)
• 79. Penn State (92)
• 84. Northwestern (74)
• 97. Rutgers (105)

[JerseyTerrapin]

• Maryland is at Iowa in a game that is important to both.  If Maryland can win their slim B1G Championship hopes will remain viable and their chance at the BTT #4 seed (double bye) improves greatly.  For Iowa the same is true.  

I'm just glad they came out out of a tough stretch (four of five on the road!) with three wins.  I was hoping for two...

@ Wisconsin
@ Nebraska
Purdue
@ Michigan
@ Iowa

[medinabuckeye1]

Maryland's win in Iowa City was an upset (our first in almost a week) which changes the overall projection in that the Terps, Badgers, and Wolverines are now all projected to finish in a three-way tie for third/fourth/fifth place.  

The first tiebreaker is H2H2H but they all play each other twice and are all projected to go 2-2.  The next tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) in the conference, then the next, etc:

• Against Purdue:  Michigan wins because they only played the Boilermakers once and won.  Maryland is second 1-1, Wisconsin is last, 0-1.  

Thus, the current projected BTT seeds are:

• PU
• MSU
• M
• UMD
• UW
• IA
• IL
• tOSU
• MN
• RU
• UNL
• IU
• NU
• PSU

Things are generally very fluid because most teams are either tied for their seed or within +/1 one game of moving up or down but there are a two that are nearly locked up:

• Iowa as the #6 seed:  The Hawkeyes are now projected to finish three games behind the 3/4/5 tie and two games ahead of #7 Illinois.  Additionally, if they did end up tied with Illinois they would win that tie (only played once, in Iowa City, won) so the Hawkeyes now have at least a two game cushion each way.  
• Illinois as the #7 seed:  The Illini are now projected to finish two games behind #6 Iowa and two games ahead of #8 Ohio State.  Additionally, as discussed above the Illini would lose a tie with Iowa so they are effectively three games behind.  Furthermore, the Illini would win a tie with Ohio State so they are effectively projected to finish three games ahead of the Buckeyes.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Ohio State is 6-8/16-9 and their remaining games, sorted as usual from most likely win to most likely loss are:

• vs Northwestern tonight
• @ Northwestern, 3/6
• vs Iowa, 2/26
• vs Wisconsin, 3/10
• @ Maryland, 2/23
• @ Purdue, 3/2

To have a decent shot without major heroics in Chicago I think that the Buckeyes need to finish at least 9-11/19-12.  The most likely way for that to happen would be for the Buckeyes to sweep the Wildcats and split the home games against Iowa and Wisconsin.  That isn't outside of the realm of possibility.  I see this game as a must win, however, because if the Buckeyes were to lose tonight they would need to win at Northwestern and beat both Iowa and Wisconsin at home.  While I think that each of those three of those things is reasonably likely, I think that all three of them are not likely at all especially if this team isn't good enough to beat Northwestern at home.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Is the nail in the coffin for IU yet? 

[medinabuckeye1]

Is the nail in the coffin for IU yet?

IMHO, not officially.  As you know, I use a literal definition of "lock" and "need to win BTT" and I don't think IU has reached "needs to win BTT" territory yet but they are getting close.  
IU is now 4-11/13-13.  Their best-case-scenario without winning the BTT would be:

• Win their remaining five regular season games (@IA, vUW, vMSU, @IL, vRU).  That would include three quality wins and get them to 9-11/18-13.   
• With that record they would open BTT play on Thursday, so win their Thursday game, their Friday game, and their Saturday game in the BTT.  That would probably include at least two quality wins and get them to 12-11/21-13.  
• Lose the B1GCG.  That probably would be a "good" loss and get them to 12-12/21-14.  With their quality wins, they'd get in with that record.  

That said, every additional loss from here on out is highly problematic because 11-13/20-15 is a much bigger reach and 10-14/19-16 is a bridge too far.  Short of winning the BTT, I think that the Hoosiers have no more than one more game to give.  

[medinabuckeye1]

B1G Bubble Watch:

After replying to @bwarbiany 's question I checked with the worldwide leader's bubble watch and they have dropped Indiana from the discussion.  As I stated above, I don't think they are in "needs to win BTT" territory just yet, but they are awfully close and the difference is purely semantic unless the Hoosiers go on a major run.  

I actually think that a team is a lock even though ESPN has not declared it yet (they are usually WAY ahead of me).  They have Wisconsin as a lock and Maryland as "should be in" and I think they have that backwards.  

Locks 4:
Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Maryland:  These schools each have at least 11 B1G wins and at least 19 overall wins so the absolute worst they could possibly finish would be 11-10 (Maryland) / 19-12 (Purdue).  IMHO they are all locks.  

Should be in 2:

• 10-5/18-8 Wisconsin:  I think they are REALLY close to being a lock but not quite there yet because their worst-case-scenario is 10-11/18-14 and I think that might not get it done (especially considering that it would include losing their last six straight and eight of their last nine as well as some really bad losses (@NU, vPSU, BTT).  
• 9-6/20-6 Iowa:  The Hawkeyes should easily be in, I'm just not willing to call them a lock yet because their worst-case-scenario of 9-11/20-11 would be diecy.  One or two more wins and they are a lock for sure.  

Work to do 2:

• 7-8/17-9 Minnesota:  The Gophers need to finish strong but it is certainly possible.  They have two opportunities at home for quality wins, Michigan tomorrow night and Purdue on March 5.  Additionally they have two road games that they should probably win (RU, NU).  The problem is that I don't see any of those (maybe NU) as gimmies and the Gophers obviously need wins.  
• 6-8/16-9 Ohio State:  See above discussion of the Buckeyes.  

Need a miraculous finish 5:

• 6-9/10-16 Illinois:  The Illini have a nice conference record but their OOC losses are problematic both due to quality and quantity.  They might already need to win the BTT but if they won out to the CG I think a final record of 14-10/18-17 with an incredible finish and some really good wins would at least generate discussion in the committee room.  
• 4-11/13-13 Indiana:  See above discussion of the Hoosiers.  
• 5-10/12-13 Rutgers:  A loss to two from "need to win BTT".  
• 5-11/15-12 Nebraska:  A loss or two from "need to win BTT".  
• 3-11/12-13 Northwestern:  A loss or two from "need to win BTT".  

Need to win BTT 1:

• 3-12/10-16 Penn State:  Short of winning the BTT, their best-case-scenario would be:

• Win their last five regular season games (@IL, vUMD, @UW, @RU, vIL).  That would only include two quality wins and get them to 8-12/15-16.  
• That record would get them a Thursday start in the BTT so win their Thursday, Friday, and Saturday games in the BTT.  That would get them to 11-12/18-16 and probably include a couple more quality wins.  
• Lose the B1GCG to finish 11-13/18-17.  That wouldn't be enough.