header pic

College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!! The Best FREE College Football Forum on the Internet!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

 (Read 24819 times)

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Team Captain
  • *****
  • Posts: 7092
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #780 on: January 12, 2019, 02:32:32 PM »
So is Wisconsin in a little trouble?  In a year where the conference is so deep you can't afford home losses, Badgers already have two.  Have to admit, I thought they'd be a tourney team, but the level of bounce back that the preseason predictions were mostly seeing, I just didn't see it.

bwarbiany

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1898
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #781 on: January 12, 2019, 02:37:57 PM »
Some UW fans are apoplectic. I’m kinda just seeing it as a sign the conference is gonna be a bitch this year. Also, UW had turnover and defensive rebounding issues that seem fixable, but I also might be under crediting UW’s FT luck from Purdue (UW also had a not great night, even by its standards). Also caught the bounce back from a 7-31 night. Don’t like losing at home, but the team did some stuff I don’t expect from it well. On to the next.

(Also, that Purdue offense is a nightmare to hold back. It’s edwards, a hammer Big and three 6-6 guys who can shoot. Everything is guys popping out around screens, the big overwhelming and Edwards hitting crazy stuff. Did not enjoy facing it)
Not sure why UW fans are apoplectic over this one... Yeah, it sucks to lose a home game, especially since Purdue's record doesn't *look* impressive to people who don't see how strong their SoS is... Currently #1 SoS in the nation according to KenPom. And while the final score @MSU was pretty terrible, the Purdue-MSU game was actually a lot closer than the score indicates. Purdue was in it for about 32 minutes, but MSU pulled away strong in the end. 
Really impressed with Tre Williams this week. He took on two very talented centers in Nick Ward and Ethan Happ, and at least held his own. Yes, Happ got a lot of points, but Tre got two blocks on him, generally hassled him quite a bit, and was able to score well himself. And Tre got a double-double against MSU, and was one point shy of it against UW. That kid is going to be GOOD. His athleticism for 280 lbs is impressive, and his court vision and passing instincts are astounding for a true frosh. When he gets his conditioning in order and loses a few more pounds, he'll be a terror.
Was really glad to see Purdue escape this one with a W. After losing a number of close neutral/road games early in the year, seeing this one fall away on the road might have hurt the team's confidence. Instead, they were tested repeatedly and managed to secure the W. 

MaximumSam

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 2141
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #782 on: January 12, 2019, 03:27:10 PM »
Some ugly basketball in Iowa

bayareabadger

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1177
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #783 on: January 12, 2019, 03:52:54 PM »
So is Wisconsin in a little trouble?  In a year where the conference is so deep you can't afford home losses, Badgers already have two.  Have to admit, I thought they'd be a tourney team, but the level of bounce back that the preseason predictions were mostly seeing, I just didn't see it.
At the moment, I don't think they're in trouble to not make the tournament. They're not making it easy though.
Right now they have some good wins, bad losses are at WKU and Minny at home. The conference schedule is a bad thing because it's hard, but good because it has a minimum of pitfalls. Kenpom has them only worse than a 3-point dog once. If they take a real bad run in games vs. comparable teams, could be dicy, but I'm gonna wait and see on that.
In each conference loss, they did something that's probably not going to happen often (stupid cold shooting vs Gophers, ridiculous turnovers vs. Purdue). I think they get things together enough to make it without much worry. 

Now, they could always suddenly slip, but I need to see some actual bad losses. I think they could lose the next two, and I won't be too worried. That's weird to write, but the league is good enough, there could be a lot of leeway unless something catastrophic happens. 

bayareabadger

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1177
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #784 on: January 12, 2019, 03:56:01 PM »
Not sure why UW fans are apoplectic over this one... Yeah, it sucks to lose a home game, especially since Purdue's record doesn't *look* impressive to people who don't see how strong their SoS is... Currently #1 SoS in the nation according to KenPom. And while the final score @MSU was pretty terrible, the Purdue-MSU game was actually a lot closer than the score indicates. Purdue was in it for about 32 minutes, but MSU pulled away strong in the end.
Really impressed with Tre Williams this week. He took on two very talented centers in Nick Ward and Ethan Happ, and at least held his own. Yes, Happ got a lot of points, but Tre got two blocks on him, generally hassled him quite a bit, and was able to score well himself. And Tre got a double-double against MSU, and was one point shy of it against UW. That kid is going to be GOOD. His athleticism for 280 lbs is impressive, and his court vision and passing instincts are astounding for a true frosh. When he gets his conditioning in order and loses a few more pounds, he'll be a terror.
Was really glad to see Purdue escape this one with a W. After losing a number of close neutral/road games early in the year, seeing this one fall away on the road might have hurt the team's confidence. Instead, they were tested repeatedly and managed to secure the W.
Some fans are apoplectic because they're idiots. 
Also, I hope Williams gets a big head and goes pro. Reminds me a little of how I felt about Caleb Swanigan. Is pretty could, but holy hell he could be VERY good. 
It felt like Purdue was due. As much shit a Painter has taken in spots, his team was in a classic "home team rallied back" spot and they stood tall, took the punch and struck back. UW should've been dead to rights late in regulation. 

MaximumSam

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 2141
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #785 on: January 12, 2019, 05:37:21 PM »
Bucks lose third straight, and you can tell Holtmann is losing patience with his veterans. All four freshmen played a lot today.

TyphonInc

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1052
  • Easily Amused
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #786 on: January 12, 2019, 05:58:00 PM »
Bucks lose third straight, and you can tell Holtmann is losing patience with his veterans. All four freshmen played a lot today.
I think any team that loses to Rutgers automatically misses the tournament. I'm ready for Football season already.
MSU loss, no worries.
Rugers loss, hit the panic button.
Iowa loss, team is in a tailspin.
Hope Holtman can fix it, but seems to me like the season is over.

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • All Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 4938
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #787 on: January 13, 2019, 06:20:16 PM »
Back from Cabo. A little quiet in here. And I'll echo BaB that some UW fans are idiots. This is a good team. Not great. Not bad. Just good. 



Abnormal amount of turnovers (Happ has the most), weak on the glass, and crap at the FT line. The B1G is a rock-solid league this season. There are gonna be bumps and all that.



UW is a T3 team in my mind. 8 seed or so.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

MichiFan87

  • Red Shirt
  • ***
  • Posts: 341
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #788 on: January 13, 2019, 09:45:51 PM »
Michigan finally played to its potential, again, on offense, with Teske and Simpson having arguably the best games of their careers. If they can keep improving their shooting, the offense can be as good as anyone's..... Matthews is struggling of late, which is kind of disappointing, and Brazdeikis isn't playing as well, either, but I think that teams will focus less on them to provide them more opportunities if Teske and Simpson keep playing well.

The defense was good but not great. Pardon dominated inside (though for some reason he took and missed several 3s) and Taylor played well for them, too. Law being out was unfortunate for them, or they'd have probably kept it close. They also got more fast break points than Michigan usually allows. I don't expect that to happen often, though, and part of it was just lack of focus because they had a big lead so early.

I'm not sure if it's a good or bad thing to have a bye this week before going to Madison. The Kohl Center doesn't look as daunting as usual, but it's definitely one of the toughest games left.
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
― Bo Schembechler

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Team Captain
  • *****
  • Posts: 7092
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #789 on: January 13, 2019, 10:16:37 PM »
Very enthused by how well MSU played down our two top wings.  Every road win = gold.

I think it's 4 out of 5 on the road right now, so that's big.

FearlessF

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 6250
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #790 on: January 13, 2019, 10:28:39 PM »
Back from Cabo. A little quiet in here. 
welcome back
these guys could work a little harder to entertain 
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

MarqHusker

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1872
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #791 on: January 13, 2019, 10:48:04 PM »
some of us had jury duty, albeit for only 7 hours.

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • All Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 4938
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #792 on: January 14, 2019, 07:31:28 AM »
Hopefully you wore a coat. Made from cloth. 
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

medinabuckeye1

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1980
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #793 on: January 14, 2019, 09:33:03 AM »
The only upset this weekend was Purdue's win at Wisconsin.  I have moved Ohio State to tier-3 from tier-2 so the tiers are now:
  • Michigan, Michigan State
  • Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin, Nebraska
  • Maryland, Ohio State, Iowa
  • Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State
  • Illinois, Rutgers
Based on the tiers, the upsets so far have been:
DateWon@/vLost
30-NovUW@IA
5-DecMNvUNL
3-JanMN@UW
8-JanUMD@MN
9-JanRUvtOSU
9-JanIA@NU
11-JanPU@UW
So the net upsets for each team are:
  • +1:  Purdue, Maryland, Minnesota (+2, -1), Rutgers
  • EVEN:  Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Iowa (+1, -1), Penn State, Illinois
  • -1:  Wisconsin (+1, -2), Nebraska, Ohio State, Northwestern
The updated projected final standings and seeds for the BTT in Chicago from Wednesday, March 13 through Sunday, March 17 are:
  • 17-3 Michigan
  • 15-5 Indiana (wins tiebreaker over MSU based on record against Wisconsin and Nebraska)
  • 15-5 Michigan State
  • 14-6 Purdue
  • 13-7 Nebraska (wins tiebreaker over Wisconsin based on H2H, no game in Madison)
  • 13-7 Wisconsin
  • 11-9 Maryland
  • 10-10 Ohio State
  • 9-11 Iowa
  • 6-14 Minnesota
  • 5-15 Northwestern
  • 4-16 Illinois (first in H2H2H with PSU and RU, 2-1)
  • 4-16 Penn State (second in H2H2H with IL and RU, 2-2)
  • 4-16 Rutgers
Thus, the match-ups in Chicago would be:
Wednesday, March 13:
  • #11 Northwestern vs #14 Rutgers, 9pm BTN
  • #12 Illinois vs #13 Penn State, 6:30pm BTN
Thursday, March 14:
  • #5 Nebraska vs NU/RU 3pm BTN
  • #6 Wisconsin vs IL/PSU, 9:30pm BTN
  • #7 Maryland vs #10 Minnesota, 7pm BTN
  • #8 Ohio State vs #9 Iowa, 12:30pm BTN
Friday, March 15:
  • #1 Michigan vs tOSU/IA, 12:30 BTN
  • #2 Indiana vs UMD/MN, 7pm BTN
  • #3 Michigan State vs UW/IL/PSU, 9:30pm BTN
  • #4 Purdue vs UNL/NU/RU, 3pm BTN
Saturday, March 16:
  • M/tOSU/IA vs PU/UNL/NU/RU, 1pm CBS
  • IU/UMD/MN vs MSU/UW/IL/PSU, 3:30pm CBS
Sunday, March 17:
  • M/tOSU/IA/PU/UNL/NU/RU vs IU/UMD/MN/MSU/UW/IL/PSU, 3:30pm CBS

medinabuckeye1

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1980
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #794 on: January 14, 2019, 10:21:22 AM »
Looking at likely bubble teams based on these projections:

Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Nebraska all project to finish at least 21-10 overall and at least 13-7 in conference.  I think those six would all be locks.  

Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Illinois, and Rutgers all project to finish 16-15 or worse overall and 6-14 or worse in conference.  I think those five would need to win the BTT to get in.  

That leaves three teams:
  • 11-9/20-11 Maryland:  The Terps' first game in the BTT would be against #10 Minnesota.  They might get in even with a loss but I think they'd be sweating if they finished 11-10/20-12 with a bad loss as their last data point.  With a win over Minnesota on Thursday, the Friday game against Indiana would be solely for seed.  
  • 10-10/20-11 Ohio State:  The Buckeyes' first game in the BTT would be against the other bubble team, #9 Iowa.  That game, IMHO, would be an elimination game.  The loser would be out.  If the Buckeyes beat Iowa on Thursday, they *MIGHT* be able to get in with a loss to Michigan on Friday but they would be sweating it.  A win over Michigan on Friday would lock up a tournament berth for the Buckeyes.  
  • 9-11/20-11 Iowa:  The Hawkeyes' first game in the BTT would be against Ohio State.  That game, IMHO, would be an elimination game.  The loser would be out.  If the Hawkeyes beat Ohio State on Thursday, I think they would also need to beat Michigan on Friday to get in and even then they wouldn't be an absolute lock at 11-12/22-12.  To safely lock up a berth the Hawkeyes would  need to make it to the B1GCG by winning their semi-final against PU/UNL/NU/RU.  

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Team Captain
  • *****
  • Posts: 7092
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #795 on: January 14, 2019, 11:34:08 AM »
By efficiency margin (gap between Offensive and Defensive PPP) this years MSU and UM are the two best Big Ten teams in the last four years.

medinabuckeye1

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1980
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #796 on: January 14, 2019, 11:38:51 AM »
By efficiency margin (gap between Offensive and Defensive PPP) this years MSU and UM are the two best Big Ten teams in the last four years.
Are you suggesting that we should insert a blank tier between the two Michigan Schools and everyone else?  Any other thoughts on tiers?  
FWIW, tiers currently are:
  • Michigan, Michigan State
  • Indiana, Purdue+1, Wisconsin-1, Nebraska-1
  • Maryland+1, Ohio State-1, Iowa
  • Minnesota+1, Northwestern-1, Penn State
  • Illinois, Rutgers+1

medinabuckeye1

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1980
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #797 on: January 14, 2019, 12:25:21 PM »
Things are getting tenuous for the Buckeyes.  A few weeks ago they peaked as high as #13 in the AP.  Heading into the MSU game they were 12-1/2-0 and ranked #14.  Now they are 12-4/2-3 and about to drop out of the AP Poll.  

We do this tier thing in part to avoid overreacting to winning/losing streaks but as a tier-2 team which the Buckeyes were they should have gone 2-1 in their last three and even as a tier-3 team which they are now they should have gone 1-2.  

My concern is that the Buckeyes could easily lose their next four games:
  • vs Maryland (Friday):  Maryland looks like a team that could definitely win in Columbus.  
  • vs Purdue (next Wednesday):  Purdue recently won in Madison so they could definitely win in Columbus.  
  • at Nebraska (1/26):  Road games are hard and Nebraska looks pretty good.  
  • at Michigan (1/29):  One of the two toughest possible B1G games this year.  

After that the Buckeyes host a Rutgers team that already beat them then a Penn State team that gave a much better Ohio State team fits last year.  

If the Buckeyes are going to make the tournament they almost have to go at least 2-2 in the next four.  

JerseyTerrapin

  • Red Shirt
  • ***
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 120
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #798 on: January 14, 2019, 12:39:35 PM »
 
  • vs Maryland (Friday):  Maryland looks like a team that could definitely win in Columbus.  
  •   
No way, the Terps are a mere tier 3 team!

mcwterps1

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1186
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #799 on: January 14, 2019, 12:40:53 PM »
No way, the Terps are a mere tier 3 team!
Maybe lower.
Now that we're in the Top 25, it's a guaranteed loss tonight.

medinabuckeye1

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1980
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #800 on: January 14, 2019, 12:54:06 PM »
No way, the Terps are a mere tier 3 team!
There is already a strong argument to move them up to tier-2.  If they win their next two games they will move up.  

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Team Captain
  • *****
  • Posts: 7092
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #801 on: January 14, 2019, 01:43:25 PM »
Are you suggesting that we should insert a blank tier between the two Michigan Schools and everyone else?  Any other thoughts on tiers?  
FWIW, tiers currently are:
  • Michigan, Michigan State
  • Indiana, Purdue+1, Wisconsin-1, Nebraska-1
  • Maryland+1, Ohio State-1, Iowa
  • Minnesota+1, Northwestern-1, Penn State
  • Illinois, Rutgers+1

Let's see how they fare on the road.  MSU has a decent, but less impressive than it was at the time, win in Columbus.l, and that's it.  Michigan doesn't have anything even that good on the road.
I also imagine if Langford and Ahrens both continue to be out, the increased burden on the freshmen will start to show.  I don't think I'd do a blank tier yet anyway, and if MSU is without it's top two wings, I certainly don't think there should be.

medinabuckeye1

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1980
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #802 on: January 14, 2019, 03:20:39 PM »
Let's see how they fare on the road.  MSU has a decent, but less impressive than it was at the time, win in Columbus.l, and that's it.  Michigan doesn't have anything even that good on the road.
I also imagine if Langford and Ahrens both continue to be out, the increased burden on the freshmen will start to show.  I don't think I'd do a blank tier yet anyway, and if MSU is without it's top two wings, I certainly don't think there should be.
Agreed, not yet but over the next two weeks we'll see four games that will made that determination:


bayareabadger

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1177
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #803 on: January 14, 2019, 09:02:47 PM »
OK, now I'm more worried about UW. 

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Team Captain
  • *****
  • Posts: 7092
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #804 on: January 14, 2019, 09:48:47 PM »
Maryland is really, really good though too.

mcwterps1

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Posts: 1186
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #805 on: January 14, 2019, 10:03:37 PM »
Maryland is really, really good though too.
Not convinced.
Best defense I've seen them play, but still look lost and the youth pushes too much.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2019, 10:35:50 PM by mcwterps1 »

MarqHusker

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1872
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #806 on: January 14, 2019, 10:35:05 PM »
Nebraska w authority tonight on the road 

FearlessF

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 6250
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #807 on: January 14, 2019, 10:52:01 PM »
badgers turtles was over at the half, watching the Horns fight with the Jayhawks
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1980
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #808 on: January 15, 2019, 07:17:20 AM »
badgers turtles was over at the half, watching the Horns fight with the Jayhawks
It was . . . but then it wasn't.  Weird game.  The Terps jumped all over the Badgers and led 33-15 at halftime.  Somehow Wisconsin managed to claw their way back and take a 60-59 lead with two minutes to play but then they got outscored 5-0 down the stretch and lost anyway.  

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Team Captain
  • *****
  • Posts: 7092
  • Liked:
Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #809 on: January 15, 2019, 07:39:22 AM »
Duke could be sans point guard for the next 4-6 weeks.  Huge loss for them.  Not shedding any tears though.

 

Please Support Site: