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Topic: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

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Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #60 on: April 02, 2018, 07:15:52 PM »
I think most MSU fans actually thought the chances of him returning were lower than they should be anyway.  He's not a kid who seems to enjoy coaching, and his limitations aren't going to change.  He's a traditional big, who isn't that big, trying to get into a league that has very few players that still play that way, and those that do, are much taller than he is.  I don't think he's going to like what the scouts say, but I'm not sure they'll like him any more in two years.  If he's going to Europe anyway, maybe he'd rather just go now.
I've heard that. Though if he does come back, I'd be quick to expect he'll stay through graduation. That's something that only MSU (excluding the infinitesimal chance of a college transfer) can give him. Otherwise, yes, Europe.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #61 on: April 03, 2018, 12:14:26 AM »
Welcome Michigan fans. Who is leaving, who returns, etc?

ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #62 on: April 03, 2018, 12:33:47 AM »
ESPN waited about 3 seconds to release their preseason rankings, which have MSU #11, UM #12 and Purdue #24.  They seem to be assuming Ward and Edwards return, Wagner leaves.

Even if that happens, I'd make Michigan the prohibitive favorite next year.  Behind them, who knows?  Conference should be deeper next year, but without the top end talent.  Behind Michigan, I have no idea.  I think there are a bunch of teams that could be anywhere from #2 through about #7

ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #63 on: April 03, 2018, 08:07:27 AM »
ESPN waited about 3 seconds to release their preseason rankings, which have MSU #11, UM #12 and Purdue #24.  They seem to be assuming Ward and Edwards return, Wagner leaves.

Even if that happens, I'd make Michigan the prohibitive favorite next year.  Behind them, who knows?  Conference should be deeper next year, but without the top end talent.  Behind Michigan, I have no idea.  I think there are a bunch of teams that could be anywhere from #2 through about #7
Recap...
ESPN: #11 MSU, #12 UM, #24 PU
Yahoo: #9 MSU, #12 UM, #25 UW
AP: #11 MSU, #14 UM, #19 UMD
CBS: #11 MSU, #17 UMD, #23 UM, #26 PU
I'm not seeing where MSU should be preseason #1 next year

NickSmith4Three

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #64 on: April 03, 2018, 01:16:37 PM »
Illinois picked up Tevian Jones today.  Nice wing with some size.

2 scholarships still open for 2018

847badgerfan

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #65 on: April 03, 2018, 03:38:08 PM »
Happ declared today but will not hire an agent. Yawn.
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FearlessF

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #66 on: April 03, 2018, 05:03:34 PM »
The confetti has barely hit the floor in San Antonio, but that hasn’t stopped the Big Ten Network from putting out its power rankings for the 2018-19 basketball season. 

The good news for Nebraska fans is that they didn’t have to read too long to find the Huskers. The Big Ten Network’s Tom Dienhart has Nebraska No. 3 on his predicted order of finish in the Big Ten next year, right behind Michigan and Michigan State. 

There’s of course a big caveat — assuming the Huskers get James Palmer Jr., and Isaac Copeland back after they test the NBA waters. 

Dienhart writes: 

“If Isaac Copeland Jr. and James Palmer Jr. return after testing the NBA draft waters, the Cornhuskers could earn that NCAA bid that eluded them in 2017-18 and enjoy an upper-division finish. But how will Tim Miles deal with big expectations? Glynn Watson is a nice veteran and Isaiah Roby is breakout star to monitor.”

Certainly the keys are Copeland and Palmer, who put their names in for NBA Draft consideration, but have not hired agents. Both players have until May 30 to withdraw their names to maintain their NCAA eligibility. 

The Huskers will add 2018 signees in center Brady Heiman, point guard Xavier Johnson, while guard Karrington Davis will sign a letter of intent this spring. 
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #67 on: April 03, 2018, 11:36:17 PM »
Bart Torvik has updated his site with this season's tourney results. A cool stat he tracks is "PASE" (performance against seed expectations). PAKE (performance against KenPom expectations) is intriguing, too.
http://barttorvik.com/cgi-bin/ncaat.cgi?conlimit=&yrlow=2011&yrhigh=2018&type=team&sort=18

ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #68 on: April 04, 2018, 11:47:57 AM »
FWIW, Lunardi opens with MSU as a 2, which is actually higher than he had them in his initial 2017-18 version.

He's seeing a bounceback season at least in terms of depth for the conference with 7 teams in (#2 MSU, #3 Michigan, #6 OSU, #7 Purdue, #9 Nebraska, #10 Maryland, #11 PSU) and 2 teams in the Next Four Out (UW, IU)

Only Illinois, Iowa, Rutgers, Minnesota and Northwestern out of the NCAA mix.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #69 on: April 04, 2018, 03:14:39 PM »
Bart Torvik has updated his site with this season's tourney results. A cool stat he tracks is "PASE" (performance against seed expectations). PAKE (performance against KenPom expectations) is intriguing, too.
http://barttorvik.com/cgi-bin/ncaat.cgi?conlimit=&yrlow=2011&yrhigh=2018&type=team&sort=18
I thought this was very interesting.  Some notes (over dude's 2011-2018 timeframe):
The B1G is second with a PAKE of 4.0 and a PASE of 7.6.  We trail the SEC but none of the other major conferences are in the top-5.  It goes:
  • SEC, 14.2:  59-35
  • B1G, 7.6:  78-50
  • MVC, 5.7:  17-12
  • Horizon, 3.3:  5-8
  • CAA, 2.1:  6-10
  • ACC, 1.9:  83-48
  • ASun, 1.5:  3-8
  • MAC, 0.9:  2-8
  • CUSA, 0.8:  5-9
  • P12, 0.7:  39-31

The other two major conferences are last and second-to-last among conferences on the PASE metric.  

Among B1G teams (sorted by and displayed with PASE):
  • #3 Michigan, 6.5:  16-7
  • #5 Wisconsin, 5.5:  17-7
  • #37 Illinois, 0.5:  2-2
  • #48 Northwestern, 0.3:  1-1
  • #51 Iowa, 0.2:  2-2
  • #56 Ohio State, 0.1:  11-6
  • #57 Michigan State, 0.0:  13-8
  • #144 Indiana, -0.6:  6-4
  • #146 Nebraska, -0.6:  0-1
  • #148 Penn State, -0.6:  0-1
  • #153 Minnesota, -0.7:  1-2
  • #156 Maryland, -0.8:  3-3
  • #182 Purdue, -2.1:  6-6
  • ________________
Rutgers is not on the list, I'm pretty sure they haven't been in the tournament in the allotted timeframe.  What this says is that, over the past eight tournaments, Michigan State roughly broke even with expectations based on their seed.  The six teams above them did better than expected.  Michigan did a LOT better while Ohio State did barely better.  The six teams below them did worse than expected.  Purdue did a LOT worse than expected while Indiana did barely worse.  

Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #70 on: April 04, 2018, 03:31:28 PM »
Since 2002, the Big Ten is #1 is PASE...by a lot. I wouldn't predict that to be due to any "tournament magic" we have but due to being underseeded in general. That's a common complaint around here, which doesn't make this true, but it is interesting.

ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #71 on: April 04, 2018, 03:34:38 PM »
Speaking of convenient cutoff points...

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #72 on: April 04, 2018, 04:03:38 PM »
Speaking of convenient cutoff points...
I just used the 2011-2018 that dude presented it with.  Eight years is a bit of an odd cut-off.  
For 10 years (2009-2018) we are still #2 behind the SEC.  
The database only goes back to 2002 so dude's "since 2002" isn't a convenient cut-off point, it is simply all the information the site presents.  
For those 17 years (2002-2018) the B1G is, as dude stated, is #1 by a large margin.  The Horizon is #2 and the SEC is #3.  The only other major conference in the top-10 is the P12 at #7.  
Looking at teams for that entire stretch:
  • #1 UCONN, 11.7:  32-8
  • #2 Butler, 11.1:  21-11
  • #3 Kentucky, 9.1:  39-14
  • #4 Michigan State, 9.1:  32-17
  • #5 North Carolina, 8.7:  43-11
  • #6 Florida, 8.0:  31-11
  • #7 Michigan, 6.9:  17-8
  • #8 Wisconsin, 6.6:  29-16
  • #9 Syracuse, 6.5:  27-11
  • #10 UCLA, 5.9:  23-12
  • #18 Indiana, 2.6:  14-9
  • #26 Maryland, 1.6:  15-8
  • #43 Illinois, 0.8:  13-9
  • #66 Northwestern, 0.3:  1-1
  • #92 Purdue, -0.0:  13-11
  • #176 Nebraska, -0.6:  0-1
  • #177 Penn State, -0.6:  0-1
  • #201 Ohio State, -1.3:  20-11
  • #218 Iowa, -2.3:  2-4
  • #229 Minnesota, -2.7:  1-5

It is a bit of an odd metric because it is measuring performance relative to seed.  The "ranking" therefore is not at all a ranking of which team was the best over that stretch.  I'd take Ohio State (20-11) over Michigan (17-8) but I'd take Wisconsin (29-16) over both of them.  

ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #73 on: April 04, 2018, 04:18:01 PM »
I just used the 2011-2018 that dude presented it with.  Eight years is a bit of an odd cut-off.  
It is.  It would only make sense if something happened nine AND ten years ago that changes his narrative.

847badgerfan

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #74 on: April 04, 2018, 04:21:40 PM »
It is.  It would only make sense if something happened nine AND ten years ago that changes his narrative.
Unless he simply chose to look at this by decade?
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #75 on: April 04, 2018, 04:29:56 PM »
Yeah, I never meant for 2011 to begin the stretch we used. Those years were apparently embedded in the URL that I shared. As for why I was checking out those years: Because that's when Beilein finally had a roster of only his guys, and I was curious. 
It's as arbitrary as any incomplete timeframe, but I didn't mean for it to be part of an argument.

bwarbiany

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #76 on: April 05, 2018, 04:42:12 PM »
Alright, Purdue... Big offseason here...

Obviously we're graduating 4 big-minute seniors. With Carsen Edwards declaring for the draft, although I think he'll drop out of the draft and come back, being a potential 5th major contributor gone. So I'll look at what's missing, with the number for the seniors to the left and the number including the loss of Carsen in parentheses to the right.

What we're losing:
Minutes per game: 114.3 / 57% - (143.8 / 72%)
Points per game: 48.8 / 61% - (67.3 / 84%)
Rebounds per game: 19 / 54% - (22.8 / 65%)
Assists per game: 9.3 / 58% - (12.1 / 76%)

Clearly without the 4 seniors, we're losing well over half the production of the team. If Carsen goes pro--again I think he'll return for his Jr year--we're losing 75%+ of the production.

So let's assume Carsen is staying. He played 29.5 MPG, was our leading scorer by 4 PPG, and was the only person on the team that was really able to be the "spark" and create a shot for himself. He wasn't voted an All-American for nothing. That means the 2018-19 Boilermakers are undoubtedly "his team". 

Coming back around him we have the following:

Proven Contributors

Matt Haarms - RS So 7'3" 250# Center - Haarms is no Isaac Haas, but Haas was also no Matt Haarms. Haarms came in as a project, and proved as a freshman that he was far more polished than anyone expected. He played 17.1 MPG (largely due to Haas, being so big, needing more rest than the other seniors), contributed 2.1 BPG, but otherwise didn't entirely fill the stat sheet. 4.8 PPG in 17 minutes showed that he wasn't a key cog in the offense, but he was serviceable. Haarms is much more athletic than Haas and could potentially be a "stretch 5" or even a "stretch 4" if Purdue finds a serviceable big man to clog up the lane. But Haarms is going to need to make a big jump in the offseason if he's going to be "the guy" at Center. He seems to be more of a PnR guy than a back-to-the-basket big, so Purdue is going to have to adjust their offensive gameplan compared to what they did in the Hammons/Biggie/Haas era of the last 6 years.

Ryan Cline - Sr 6'6" 195# SG - Cline has largely lived in Dakota Mathias' shadow much of his career, as Mathias was just too valuable to the team to pull off the floor. Cline is a sharpshooter, with 101 3PA last year and only 28 2PA. And he doesn't get to the line. He had 6 FTA last season. It's so few that in the Cal State Fullerton NCAA game, after Haas' injury the CSUF coach picked Cline to shoot FT, because even though Nojel Eastern was shooting <50% from the stripe, he must have assumed Cline didn't know hot to shoot a free throw or something! That said, Cline has been working on his strength, his defense, and his game in general. He'll be the most seasoned guy on the team other than Carsen, and is expected to get some serious minutes.

Nojel Eastern - So 6'6" 220# PG - Eastern rounds out the 2017-18 main rotation players. Beyond him, Grady Eifert (preferred walk-on) got some run as Vince Edwards back-up, but Eifert played out of necessity while Eastern was truly being developed for next year. He got about 12.6 MPG, and his biggest contribution was defense. Being long, strong, and pretty athletic, he did a good job defending some of the players that PJ Thompson (5'10" 185#) simply wasn't able to handle. Overall, he actually showed quite a lot for a freshman, but he's going to have to make a major step up next season if the Boilers are going to do anything.

Known Quantities

Grady Eifert - 6'6" 220# Sr F - Grady is the brother of Tyler Eifert, TE from Notre Dame now with the Bengals. Eifert is a preferred walk-on, but has actually played some minutes out of necessity. He's tough, one of those guys who seems to do what he does purely out of will and BBIQ. He put in 8.3 MPG behind Vince Edwards as there was no serviceable 4 behind Vince, and generally was not a liability to the team when he was out there. I expect he'll continue to get some minutes next year, because everyone else that could play the 4 is going to be incredibly raw. 

Jacquil Taylor - RS Sr 6'10" 240# Center - Taylor has for years been the guy who we all said "wait until he gets healthy and breaks out!" Injuries, mostly lower extremity injuries, have hampered him his entire career, though. He's also got some athleticism, does a pretty good job of crashing the boards, but his offensive game is a big unknown. He simply hasn't played enough to know what we have with him, and he has to be able to survive a season without injury to find out. I listed him as a RS Sr, but it's possible that he could get granted a 6th year by the NCAA after this year and he might have 2 seasons left. 

Unknown Returners

Sasha Stefanovic - 6'4" 195# RS Fr SG - There are a lot of people high on Sasha for next year. He clearly wasn't going to get a lot of court time this year behind Mathias and Cline, not to mention Carsen, so he ended up redshirting. Generally everyone I've talked to says he's more athletic than Mathias/Cline, and can fill up the basket from anywhere on the court. Beyond that, he's pretty much unknown. Not sure how well he plays defense, or frankly anything else, because he didn't get any minutes. I do expect he's going to get some run, though, as Painter likes to have shooters on the floor and Sasha is undoubtedly that.

Aaron Wheeler - 6'9" 200# RS Fr F/Wing - Wheeler is an athletic freak. He's been described as the guy who "can jump out of the gym". He's got the height for the 4 and the athleticism to play the 3/Wing, so he might be a very versatile player for Purdue. Why did he redshirt, then, on a team that could have used an athlete to back up Vince when all they had was Eifert? Well, because he just wasn't ready for prime time. Let's hope he does something.

Incoming

Evan Boudreaux - 6'8" 220# Jr* F - Coming as a grad transfer with [I think] 2 years eligibility remaining, Boudreaux fills a position of serious need with Vince Edwards graduating. Boudreaux put in 17.5 PPG and 9.5 RPG last season at Dartmouth, and although he'll be going up a level of competition in the B1G, he's expected to be an instant impact guy. He can shoot the ball, too, so he may be able to stretch the floor in a way very similar to Vince, but with much better rebounding impact (which was a point of worry for the Boilers this year). 

Trevion Williams - 6'8" 250# Fr F/C - Williams wants to be like Biggie. Seriously, that's who he wants to play like style-wise, intensity-wise, and [thankfully] rebounding-wise. As a Jr in HS, he was averaging 22 PPG and 25 (!) RPG. How ready is he for the college game? Well, we don't really know.

Eric Hunter - 6'3" 170# Fr Combo Guard - Hunter was just named an Indiana All-Star and is a finalist for Indiana Mr Basketball (but likely will lose that honor to shoo-in Romeo Langford), and led his team to a state championship as a Jr. I think the obvious comparison here is Carsen Edwards, as a player who can score from anywhere, including creating his own shot. I think he's likely to be a strong enough player to see minutes next year, and probably be seen as a contributor on the court even if it's mostly spelling Carsen when he's resting.  

Emmanuel Duwouna - 6'11" 220# Fr Center - Not sure if he'll see the court. He first played basketball ~4 years ago as he grew too large for soccer, and he may be a bit of a project. If he sees the court, it had better mean he's really shown amazing development under big-man coach Brandon Brantley, or it's going to mean that everything else we have at Center is falling apart.

ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #77 on: April 05, 2018, 04:53:32 PM »
I think Eastern is a really, really good player.  I'm just not sure he's really a PG.

bwarbiany

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #78 on: April 05, 2018, 05:02:50 PM »
I think Eastern is a really, really good player.  I'm just not sure he's really a PG.
It's tough to say. I think one of the reasons he came to Purdue [from what I've read] is that Painter basically told him he'd be able to at least fight for the PG position. 
That said, in Painter's system playing "PG" doesn't necessarily mean all that much. PJ Thompson was 4th on the team in APG this past year. At different times Carsen or Vince brought the ball up the floor and set the offense. Nojel did it quite a bit when he was in the game. 
As the year wore on, Eastern really did start to come into his own, but with such a veteran squad around him, wasn't asked to do too much, which helped. It remains to be seen how he [and everyone else] holds up when they're thrust into the limelight and don't have the veterans around to set the pace.

ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #79 on: April 07, 2018, 01:46:49 PM »
I think most MSU fans actually thought the chances of him returning were lower than they should be anyway.  He's not a kid who seems to enjoy coaching, and his limitations aren't going to change.  He's a traditional big, who isn't that big, trying to get into a league that has very few players that still play that way, and those that do, are much taller than he is.  I don't think he's going to like what the scouts say, but I'm not sure they'll like him any more in two years.  If he's going to Europe anyway, maybe he'd rather just go now.
Reading the tea leaves, I think this is the case.  I don't think he's going to like what he hears, but I also don't think his shortcomings are the type of things more college is going to fix.  I think he's gone, to Europe.

NickSmith4Three

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #80 on: April 09, 2018, 09:39:05 AM »
Illinois picked up allegedly the #1 JUCO PG this weekend.  What that really means, I don't know.  Replaces some depth lost with TeJon Lucas.

847badgerfan

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #81 on: April 09, 2018, 10:14:26 AM »
How did UI manage to get a JuCo admitted? Seems to me that doesn't happen very often down there.
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bwarbiany

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #82 on: April 09, 2018, 03:47:21 PM »
Carsen Edwards won the Jerry West award, awarded to the best SG in the nation.

ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #83 on: April 10, 2018, 10:48:30 AM »
Fits in the 2019-20 category, but OSU picks up a commitment from 4/5* Alonzo Gaffney from Cleveland, over MSU and Georgetown.  Really good pickup.

ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #84 on: April 10, 2018, 10:49:09 AM »
Carsen Edwards won the Jerry West award, awarded to the best SG in the nation.
Pretty impressive to win the award before the season even starts.  ;)

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #85 on: April 10, 2018, 11:33:05 AM »
2002-2018 B1G (includes all current B1G teams even though they were not all in the B1G for that entire timeframe) NCAA tournament records sorted by wins, then appearances (resorted from an earlier post in roughly the order of success over that stratch, IMHO):
  • 32-17:  Michigan State
  • 29-16:  Wisconsin
  • 20-11:  Ohio State
  • 17-8:  Michigan
  • 15-8:  Maryland
  • 14-9:  Indiana
  • 13-11:  Purdue
  • 13-9:  Illinois
  • 2-4:  Iowa
  • 1-5:  Minnesota
  • 1-1:  Northwestern
  • 0-1:  Nebraska
  • 0-1:  Penn State
  • 0-0:  Rutgers

Since none of our teams have won an NC in that timeframe the number of losses for each team is also the number of NCAA tournament appearances in those 17 years.  

The huge drop-off between #8 Illinois and #9 Iowa was somewhat surprising to me.  The top eight all have at least eight NCAA appearances (in 17 years so at least roughly every other year) and at least 13 wins.  None of the bottom six have more than five appearances or two wins.  

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #86 on: April 10, 2018, 11:37:38 AM »
Kinda surprised Rutgers was that awful over that stretch, as the Big East that they were a part of was all about some men's hoops. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17

ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #87 on: April 10, 2018, 11:40:05 AM »
Kinda surprised Rutgers was that awful over that stretch, as the Big East that they were a part of was all about some men's hoops.
I think Rutgers has the longest active NCAA tournament drought of any P5 school

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #88 on: April 10, 2018, 12:17:34 PM »
How would you rank "success" over this 17 year period?  

In my view, for the top eight teams you can pretty much ignore performance in non-tournament years and just rank off of the NCAA tournament records.  Within that though, how would you weight appearances as compared to wins?  

The top three are obvious.  MSU has the most appearances and the most wins and UW is second in both of those categories.  Ohio State is third in wins and tied for third in appearances.  

Then it gets debatable.  Michigan is fourth in wins but Purdue is tied for third in appearances.  I can recognize an argument for either.  

Maybe a compromise is to rank at least the top eight by number of NCAA Tournament games played:
  • #1 Michigan State, 49
  • #2 Wisconsin, 45
  • #3 Ohio State, 31
  • #4 Michigan, 25
  • #5 Purdue, 24
  • #6 (tie) Maryland, 23
  • #6 (tie) Indiana, 23
  • #8 Illinois, 22

bwarbiany

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #89 on: April 10, 2018, 12:36:18 PM »
Pretty impressive to win the award before the season even starts.  ;)
Well, nobody's going to read the 2018-19 thread anymore. But assuming returns, he'd probably be on the watch list for it again.

 

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