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Author Topic: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread  (Read 11684 times)

Online medinabuckeye1

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2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« on: March 19, 2018, 06:26:42 PM »
Well, some of us have been ready for this longer than others but all except PU and M fans are now ready.  What do we think of the 2018-2019 BB season . . .
« Last Edit: June 19, 2018, 11:22:33 PM by medinabuckeye1 »



Offline Brutus Buckeye

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2018, 07:00:38 PM »
What is the schedule structure with regards to who plays once, twice, etc? 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17

Online 847badgerfan

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2018, 07:21:29 PM »
I think UW is going to be pretty good next year, if Happ comes back. He is testing the waters right now, so we'll see. 

They seemed to put it together in the last month this past season, and they get two players back from injury, plus one transfer who sat out this past season. There will be two point guards on the roster, compared to none this year, so that's a big plus.

Reuvers is going to get stronger, which showed this year, and an offseason with UW's trainers will do that. Davison can get his shoulder fixed up, which will help him as he continues to learn and grow.

As mentioned up-thread, Andy Van Vliet left the program so now another 'ship is open and available for a quality grad transfer.

The starting 5 will look like this, subject to a grad transfer:

PG: Trice
SG: Davison
C:   Happ
F:   Ivarson
F:   Reuvers
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Online 847badgerfan

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2018, 07:22:32 PM »
From ELA:


As for next year, MSU should take a step back, but who knows.  The fact that MSU's lone Final 4 team in the last 6 years is probably the worst team they fielded in that stretch prevents me from dealing in absolutes.  I'm assuming Bridges and Jackson are gone.  Carter, Nairn and Schilling graduate.  Rumors are Ward is sort of done, but I don't see any way he gets drafted.  He's not what the NBA wants in a big anymore.  We'll see if smarter heads prevail.

I would think they should still be a tourney team, anything beyond that is gravy.  Off the top of my head, McQuaid was the only junior, so presumably 2019-20 should be a strong year.

With or without Wagner, next year Michigan should be the very heavy favorite.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Online ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2018, 08:11:42 PM »
What is the schedule structure with regards to who plays once, twice, etc?
We go to 20 conference games right?  Keep that random week of early December conference games, but without the early tourney?

Offline Brutus Buckeye

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #5 on: March 19, 2018, 09:34:43 PM »

Holtmann is saying the right things about putting together a more challenging non-Conference schedule that will be fun for the fans, ie: playing the in-State basketball schools. 

Of course Thad came out of the gate saying the same things, and it never really happened. There was one neutral site game against Cincinnati in Indianapolis when OSU had Odin and Conley while Cincinnati was rolling out a JuCo all star team in the aftermath of the Huggins canning. After that beat down was administered things went back to the way they were before, only with the occasional Ohio Mac/Horizon cupcake instead of some school that no one has ever heard of. 

So I am looking forward to seeing what Holtmann comes up with. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17

Online bayareabadger

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #6 on: March 19, 2018, 09:42:32 PM »
To echo what 847 said, it'll be nice for UW to have actual depth next year, instead of six rotation guys before walk-ons. The roster is a little unbalanced with a lot of guard and only a few frontcourt guys. I'm intrigued how things shake out and if there's someone else to add. Badgers obviously played better down the stretch, and I'm guessing it'll be a NCAA team, but maybe not with the highest ceiling.

What they've got 
PG: Trice, a small point they missed after he got hurt. I think his game has some holes, but I think the guy next to him complements well
SG: Davison, he's a combo guard who had some really nice highs this year despite the shoulder. UW 2s tend to be complementary shooters. I'm thinking he's the chips-are-down creator. 
SF: Iverson, by the end of the year he was considered a perimeter stopper. That' good because his offense is limited and occasionally frustrating. He plays a lot, and that usually means it'll continue, but I'm interested if they go away from him sharing the floor with Happ some.
PF: Reuvers, he represents a high level of hope for UW. I think he'll be a good big at some point. What he gives next year is up in the air. He gets compared to Jon Leuer some, and sophomore Leuer was very up and down. If he's reliable, that'll be huge because he's really UW's only other center option.
C: Happ, kid's a star and will be missed in two seasons.

Bench
Pritzl - Grew into the standard high-efficiency UW 2-guard, give or take some defense. I expect him to play a LOT
Aleem Ford - Guy was basically a 3-point specialist who didn't do much else as a 6-foot-8 combo forward. I hope there's a little more offensive diversity, much better defense and the ability to be a consistent backup four in a what looks like a potential 3-man rotation at the 4/5.
Kobe King - A wing with decent size, defensive potential and shooting ability (and a good bit of scoring skill from the HS level, I think) who was hurt most of the year. Some folks have REALLY high hopes for him. I'm holding at a guy who can space the floor and chip in here and there.
Beyond them are a pair of underachieving forwards (Illikainen, Charlie Thomas) and interesting walk-on transfer guard in Trevor Anderson and a couple freshman bigs who should redshirt.

What I'm watching
Lineups - UW has a lot of guards and not much reliable in the frontcourt. Do they go small? Who wins the backcourt minutes battles as players stratify?
Reuvers/Ford - Reuvers showed potential, but there's a lot riding on year 1 to year 2 growth. I'm a little gunshy in saying the added strength will get him quite where some hope. Ford just needs to round stuff out a little. Just be a little more reliable/defensively there.
The Iverson factor - With his offense, I could see him slip as UW will have Happ out a lot and UW likes four-shooter lineups. It probably won't happen, but there've been message board rumblings. 
Grad transfer - If there's a lower-usage stretch big who can play a little five, please sign up. I saw they we're after a high-usage 6-6 guy who can shoot. That would be interesting... 

Online medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2018, 02:21:57 PM »
What is the schedule structure with regards to who plays once, twice, etc?
Since the addition of RU and UMD we have had 18 games per season and thus each team played:
  • Five teams home and away
  • Four teams home only
  • Four teams away only
Next year we will have 20 games and thus each team will play:
  • Seven teams home and away
  • Three teams home only
  • Three teams away only
The conference has stipulated that the in-state rivals will play every year, that is:
  • Illinois/Northwestern
  • Indiana/Purdue
  • Michigan State/Michigan
By comparison, in 2017-2018 Illinois/Northwestern played only in Evanston, Indiana/Purdue played only in Bloomington, and MSU/M played only in East Lansing.  

There is also a regional component and, according to the conference's site, over each six year cycle it will work as follows:
  • In-state rivals will play 12 times
  • Regional opponents will play 10 times
  • All other teams will play nine times
I do not see a list of the "regional opponents" on the B1G site and, AFAIK, the 2018-2019 schedule has not yet been released.  

The new schedule should be a big improvement IMHO.  Last year it seemed that there was a serious lack of games among the better teams in the league.  Here is a list of the teams that finished above .500 in the B1G and the fellow >.500 teams that they only played once:
  • 16-2 Michigan State:  Michigan(H), Nebraska(H), PU(H), tOSU(A)
  • 15-3 Purdue:  Nebraska(H), tOSU(H), MSU(A)
  • 15-3 Ohio State:  MSU(H), Nebraska(H), PU(A)
  • 13-5 Michigan:  MSU(A), Nebraska(A)
  • 13-5 Nebraska:  Michigan(H), MSU(A), tOSU(A), PU(A)

The Spartans and Cornhuskers only played the other four >.500 teams once each while the Boilermakers and Buckeyes played only Michigan twice.  Even Michigan only played half of the other >.500 teams twice.  

Online medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2018, 02:27:07 PM »
The new schedule should be a big improvement IMHO.  Last year it seemed that there was a serious lack of games among the better teams in the league.  Here is a list of the teams that finished above .500 in the B1G and the fellow >.500 teams that they only played once:
  • 16-2 Michigan State:  Michigan(H), Nebraska(H), PU(H), tOSU(A)
  • 15-3 Purdue:  Nebraska(H), tOSU(H), MSU(A)
  • 15-3 Ohio State:  MSU(H), Nebraska(H), PU(A)
  • 13-5 Michigan:  MSU(A), Nebraska(A)
  • 13-5 Nebraska:  Michigan(H), MSU(A), tOSU(A), PU(A)
The Spartans and Cornhuskers only played the other four >.500 teams once each while the Boilermakers and Buckeyes played only Michigan twice.  Even Michigan only played half of the other >.500 teams twice.  
Adding in the three teams that finished .500 or within one game of .500:
  • 9-9 Penn State:  Michigan(H), Indiana(A), MSU(A), PU(A)
  • 9-9 Indiana:  PSU(H), PU(H), M(A), Nebraska(A)
  • 8-10 Maryland:  Indiana(A), Nebraska(A), tOSU(A)
Last year was particularly bad but the 5/4/4 set-up lent itself to this sort of thing much more than the new 7/3/3 set-up will.  

Online MaximumSam

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2018, 02:36:28 PM »
Bucks should field a competent team, though I'm skeptical they will be as good as this year.

https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-basketball/2018/03/91932/chris-holtmanns-second-season-at-ohio-state-will-feature-fresh-faces-new-look-lineup

Basically, while Kaleb Wesson should still be a good force inside, it's hard to tell where points on the perimeter will come from.  Andre Wesson isn't much of a shooter, Kyle Young didn't play much, and I don't expect CJ Jackson to drastically improve.  Possible a freshman like Muhammad comes in a lights it up, but also possible he doesn't.  Without a KBD type to make defenses commit to stopping a guy, not much room for everyone else to operate.  That said, they should be fine defensively.

Offline Brutus Buckeye

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2018, 03:03:38 PM »
Maybe the "regional opponents" mirror the football divisions? 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17

Online medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #11 on: March 20, 2018, 04:14:44 PM »
Maybe the "regional opponents" mirror the football divisions?
To a certain extent they probably will, but it can't be exact.  It is also complicated by the fact that the eight schools without an in-state rival need more regional rivals than the six schools with an in-state rival.  
Ie:
Per the Conference website, in a six year cycle each team will play:
  • In-State rivals 12 times (twice each year, no exceptions)
  • Regional opponents 10 times (twice each year for four years and once each for two years)
  • All other teams nine times (twice three years and once three years)

Running the math:
  • In a six year cycle each team needs 120 opponents
The six teams WITH in-state rivals will play:
  • Their in-state rival 12 times
  • That leaves 108 slots to fill with the other 12 teams where x*10+(12-x)*9=108
  • When you solve that equation, x=0 so the teams WITH an in-state rival have NO regional rivals

Thus, teams WITH an in-state rival will get to 120 games in six years as follows:
  • 12 games against their in-state rival
  • 108 games against the other 12 teams (9*12=108)
  • 120 total games

The eight teams WITHOUT in-state rivals will play:
  • The other 13 teams where x*10+(13-x)*9=120
  • When you solve that equation, x=3 so the teams WITHOUT an in-state rival will each have three "regional" rivals

Thus, teams WITHOUT an in-state rival will get to 120 games in six years as follows:
  • 30 games against their three regional rivals (3*10)
  • 90 games against the other 10 teams in the conference (10*9)
  • 120 total games

This also means that the teams WITH in-state rivals will not be regional rivals of ANY school.  

This would effectively force Ohio State's regional rivals to be the three Eastern schools (PSU, RU, UMD).  Four of the five teams in adjacent states (M, MSU, IU, PU) already have in-state rivals and are thus exempt.  The other one is Penn State.  Additionally, other than the Eastern schools the next closest (geographically) to Columbus are the two Illinois schools but they obviously already have in-state rivals as well.  

Therefore, I assume that the eight teams without in-state rivals would be grouped into a Western group of UNL, UW, MN, and IA and an Eastern group of RU, UMD, PSU, and tOSU.  

Offline Brutus Buckeye

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #12 on: March 20, 2018, 04:19:10 PM »

That makes sense. 

So each football division has three teams with in-State rivals, and the other four teams will constitute the "regional" rivals. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17

Online medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #13 on: March 20, 2018, 04:21:20 PM »
If you couldn't tell, I figured that all out as I was typing it sorry it is a bit convoluted.  

The short version is that in the new schedule set-up the schools will play:
The Six teams WITH in-state rivals (M, MSU, IU, PU, IL, NU) will play:
  • Their in-state rival twice every year
  • The other 12 teams in the conference twice every other year and once in the other years.  
The four Western teams (UNL, MN, IA, UW) will play:
  • Each other twice four years out of six, and once two years out of six
  • The other ten teams in the conference twice every other year and once in the other years.  
The four Eastern teams (tOSU, PSU, UMD, RU) will play:
  • Each other twice four years out of six and once two years out of six
  • The other ten teams in the conference twice every other year and once in the other years.  

Online medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #14 on: March 20, 2018, 04:21:53 PM »
That makes sense.

So each football division has three teams with in-State rivals, and the other four teams will constitute the "regional" rivals.
I'm glad it made sense to you because I typed it and it barely made sense to me, LoL.  

Offline PSUinNC

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #15 on: March 22, 2018, 10:08:46 AM »
Time for PSU to step up next year.  Be nice to see a good showing now in NYC.  If Carr comes back, PSU is in prime position to make a move in the conference.  Time to step up the non-con scheduling and play like it.  

Online HailHailMSP

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #16 on: March 22, 2018, 11:23:57 AM »
Will be curious if Carr, Bates-Diop, and Wagner are early entrant's? It could shape the outlook of the conference to some extent. The "always trustworthy" mock drafts have Bates-Diop and Carr as late first rounder's right now. Wagner is an early to mid 2nd rounder. I am a little surprised by Mo's projection. I see him a bit like I saw Kaminsky.

Offline PSUinNC

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #17 on: March 22, 2018, 11:30:27 AM »
Will be curious if Carr, Bates-Diop, and Wagner are early entrant's? It could shape the outlook of the conference to some extent. The "always trustworthy" mock drafts have Bates-Diop and Carr as late first rounder's right now. Wagner is an early to mid 2nd rounder. I am a little surprised by Mo's projection. I see him a bit like I saw Kaminsky.
They'll all declare, but I have a feeling at least one or two wont' hire an agent and will eventually come back.  Carr and B-D are sure fire first rounders the following year if they come back and have good 18-19 years.  I'm not sure I think any are 'ready' for the Association yet; is it worth taking the risk of being a second rounder if you're that borderline?

Online ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #18 on: March 22, 2018, 12:39:06 PM »
FWIW, NBADraft.net has all 3 going, Wagner late 1st, Carr with the first pick of the 2nd, and KBP early in the 2nd.

I don't like the whole "improve your stock" argument.  It doesn't happen any more often than your stock going down.  My thought is always, first round pick, then go.  You likely won't be any higher next year.  Bridges and Wagner both opted to return, and both are exactly where they would have been a year ago, except now with a year less of income in their careers.

Offline PSUinNC

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #19 on: March 22, 2018, 12:59:41 PM »
FWIW, NBADraft.net has all 3 going, Wagner late 1st, Carr with the first pick of the 2nd, and KBP early in the 2nd.

I don't like the whole "improve your stock" argument.  It doesn't happen any more often than your stock going down.  My thought is always, first round pick, then go.  You likely won't be any higher next year.  Bridges and Wagner both opted to return, and both are exactly where they would have been a year ago, except now with a year less of income in their careers.
I think stock can absolutely go up and down depending on who else is in that draft vs the next one.  Carr's the 10th best PG at best in this draft, he might be a Top 5 guy next year.  

Agree if you're a sure 1st rounder, you go.  But PG's are hard to come by in that league and I think Carr could absolutely help himself with another year of strength conditioning, getting his body ready and have that guaranteed contract instead of the possibility of being a 2nd round, non guaranteed guy.

I think that's exactly why they put the system in place that allows them to scoot back to college in case they don't tear up the pre-draft combine (or camps or whatever) and they find out they are on the edge. 

Offline Brutus Buckeye

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #20 on: March 22, 2018, 01:03:14 PM »
Mike Conley went from a projected 4 year player to a freshman lottery pick after one good Tourney run. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17

Online ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #21 on: March 22, 2018, 01:48:43 PM »
I think stock can absolutely go up and down depending on who else is in that draft vs the next one.  Carr's the 10th best PG at best in this draft, he might be a Top 5 guy next year.  

Agree if you're a sure 1st rounder, you go.  But PG's are hard to come by in that league and I think Carr could absolutely help himself with another year of strength conditioning, getting his body ready and have that guaranteed contract instead of the possibility of being a 2nd round, non guaranteed guy.

I think that's exactly why they put the system in place that allows them to scoot back to college in case they don't tear up the pre-draft combine (or camps or whatever) and they find out they are on the edge.
I'm not saying you can't.  I'm just saying I've seen no evidence that you are any more likely to move up than you are to move down.  Football makes sense a lot of time, a year more strength, a year more technique.  The NBA just draft off potential.  They'd almost prefer you not be a year older.  If you want to go back, go back.  But if it's because you want to improve your draft stock, meh.  And the whole "next years class is weaker" line is used every single year.  Because it's a sport where guys go from high schoolers that most people have never heard of, to lottery picks in a year.  So next year's class always looks weaker, because you have no idea who anyone is.  Everyone was saying last year that the 2017 Draft was loaded, but 2018 was weak, so Bridges would move from 10-12 into top 3-5 just based on who he was up against.  Now this looks like one of the better drafts in recent years.

Online medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #22 on: March 22, 2018, 02:19:36 PM »
Looking at Ohio State next year:

Tate, Dakich, and Williams are Seniors so they are definitely gone:
  • Tate averaged 12.3 points, 6.2 boards, and 2.9 assists in just under 30 minutes per game.  
  • Dakich averaged 3 points, 1.8 boards, and 2.1 assists in 19 minutes per game.  
  • Williams averaged 9 points, 2.1 boards, and 0.8 assists in just under 24 minutes per game.  
  • Combined they averaged 24.3 points, 10.1 boards, and 5.8 assists in about 73 minutes per game.  

My gut feel is that Tate's, Dakich's, and Williams' contributions can be more than made up for with typical year-over-year improvement from the younger guys and freshman contributions.  Thus, if KBD comes back I expect the team to improve at least slightly and I would view anything less than a S16 as a disappointment.  

On the other hand, if KBD leaves then the team will need to replace a total of about 44.1 points, 18.8 boards, and 7.4 assists in about 106 minutes per game and I doubt that will be possible.  Without KBD I expect a drop-off and my goal would simply be to make the tournament.  

Online HailHailMSP

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #23 on: March 22, 2018, 02:21:18 PM »
It’s rare to see guys move up these days. The NBA draft is picking so much on potential that if you stay for another year or two and fall off that perceived progression forecast you will slide or stay flat. For any of the three mentioned if a 1st round grade is likely its hard to see them improving on that in any significant way with another year. 

If you want to do it because you like college and want to take another run at a conference or tournament championship that is fine, but the eyes better be open to lost earning potential. 

Online ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #24 on: March 22, 2018, 02:35:00 PM »
It’s rare to see guys move up these days. The NBA draft is picking so much on potential that if you stay for another year or two and fall off that perceived progression forecast you will slide or stay flat. For any of the three mentioned if a 1st round grade is likely its hard to see them improving on that in any significant way with another year.

If you want to do it because you like college and want to take another run at a conference or tournament championship that is fine, but the eyes better be open to lost earning potential.
Exactly

Online Entropy

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #25 on: March 22, 2018, 03:24:09 PM »
Miles either had or is having a 1x1 with the AD to outline his 5 year plan...  I guess we will see what happens after that meeting.   I was in Lincoln the past few days and the locals seem convinced UNL is going to lose at least 2 players.   UNL will need more talent transfers to remain relevant. 

Online ELA

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Offline PSUinNC

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #27 on: March 26, 2018, 09:05:40 AM »
Bates-Diop going pro

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22916723/ohio-state-buckeyes-forward-keita-bates-diop-enter-nba-draft
Assume with an agent?
Didn't realize he's 22.  No way on earth he should come back.  

Online medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #28 on: March 26, 2018, 10:36:37 AM »
Assume with an agent?
Didn't realize he's 22.  No way on earth he should come back.  
I certainly can't blame him but it really puts a damper on my expectation for Ohio State next year.  A lot can change between now and mid-November but at this point my goal for the season is for the Buckeyes to make the tournament.  I see that as iffy and anything beyond that would be gravy.  

Online ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G BB Thread
« Reply #29 on: March 26, 2018, 04:52:46 PM »
Michael Finke also leaving Illinois.  Illini rebuild seems to be starting over all over again next year.

 

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