FWIW, I think Graham may have the tougher road to hoe to keep the gig even with a more realistic expectation level.
At least Mora has the pieces to reel off the 9-10 wins (maybe even 8) he needs to buy some time. If Rosen comes back and is Rosen again 8 wins is do-able, 9 just needs some luck, and 10 would need everything to go right. The O-line didn't lose much and has room to improve, the receivers are good, the RB's need to get going but Rosen passing well would help, and while the D wasn't great last year (especially at 4th down) there are athletes and the problems are fixable (seriously fixing 4th down equals 2-3 more wins right there) with the current roster. For UCLA, it is more about staying healthy (esp Rosen) and fixing a number of little things.
Graham may not have the pieces he needs and at least some fo the fixes needed are big time. The most glaringly obvious is the usual--another bad O-line. In all fairness this problem preceded Graham and has basically been a perennial issue since whatsisname, the former Boise coach. But ASU has given up 38 sacks in each of the last five seasons, last year was not a good one with 41 sacks, and this year could be worse. Basically, with the O-line problems Graham is in the unenviable position of having to put a lot of his chips on either an unknown talent (Barnett, a transfer from a great but staid Bama offense) or a known but ho-hum QB (Wilkins 12TD, 9 INT) and have both cut off at the knees by a poor O-line no matter which bet he takes. And no matter which way he goes there the opponents are going to be able to bomb away at their leisure on last year's worst pass D and pass rush, which doesn't have the horses to make noticeable improvement likely. The bet here for Graham is probably to double down on a run defense that was serviceable at times and hope it stymies a few middling teams that rely heavily on the run (Utah, Oregon) and just hope they can't get it done through the air. The odds say it won't work since Graham's scoring defense stat has slid every single year he's been at ASU. My guess is that ASU cans him if the team does anything less than 7 wins since the downward trend is apparent in lots of stats, but I guess there is an outside chance they extend him a year if he eeks out 6 wins so long as they stomp Arizona (who may be pretty stomp-able this year). The problem is that the schedule is not too hot. Play the Six Win Puzzle with me below:
New Mexico State (Almost certain W)
San Diego State (50/50, SDSU is 2 time MWC champ rebuilding on O, but loaded on a very reliable D)
At Texas Tech aka "No Tackling Game of the Year" (51/49 win, was shootout last year and teams are mirror images)
Oregon (50/50, UO probably improves noticeably but until new coach tested who knows?)
At Stanford (L)
At Utah (L, see the "At")
Colorado (probable L, even rebuilding CU has much much less to fix)
At UCLA (no more than puncher's chance, see the "At")
At Oregon State (50/50, Devils are probably better, but away)
Arizona (probable W)
See the problem getting to 6 wins? There is really only one guaranteed W on the schedule and only one other probable W, as opposed to three near certain losses and three likely losses (@UU, CU, @UCLA). And getting to 7 wins? Nearly impossible unless the Bama transfer QB is the next coming of Jake the Snake Plummer or something. Just a very tough schedule for Graham to run into during a tough rebuilding year
Sorry, that didn't start so windy in my head but it sure veered that way.