CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on May 21, 2019, 03:03:19 PM
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Using @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's rankings from his Countdown thread, I organized this list of the B1G-E team which shows which three cross-over B1G-W opponents each one of them face and which teams each of them face home and which away.
Not that this year each B1G-E team hosts one B1G-W team and visits two B1G-W teams. Here is the chart (again, uses ELA's rankings and thank you @Anonymous Coward (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1513) for formatting assistance):
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 14 | . | Rank |
| . | Team | tOSU | M | PSU | MSU | IU | UMD | RU | Team | . |
| 1 | tOSU | n/a | 11/30, H | 11/23, A | 10/5, A | 9/14, H | 11/9, A | 11/16, H | tOSU | 1 |
| 2 | M | 11/30, A | n/a | 10/19, H | 11/16, A | 11/23, H | 11/2, H | 9/28, A | UW | 2 |
| 3 | PSU | 11/23, H | 10/19, A | n/a | 10/26, H | 11/16, A | 9/27, H | 11/30, A | PSU | 3 |
| 4 | Iowa | miss | 10/5, H | 10/12, A | miss | miss | miss | 9/7, A | MSU | 4 |
| 5 | UW | 10/26, H | 9/21, A | miss | 10/12, A | miss | miss | miss | M | 5 |
| 6 | NU | 10/18, A | miss | miss | 9/21, A | 11/2, H | miss | miss | Iowa | 6 |
| 7 | MSU | 10/5, H | 11/16, H | 10/26, A | n/a | 9/28, A | 11/30, A | 11/23, H | NU | 7 |
| 8 | MN | miss | miss | 11/9, A | miss | miss | 10/26, A | 10/19, H | PU | 8 |
| 9 | PU | miss | miss | 10/5, H | miss | 11/30, A | 10/12, A | miss | UNL | 9 |
| 10 | UNL | 9/28, A | miss | miss | miss | 10/26, A | 11/23, H | miss | MD | 10 |
| 11 | IU | 9/14, A | 11/23, A | 11/16, H | 9/28, H | n/a | 10/19, H | 10/12, A | IU | 11 |
| 12 | UMD | 11/9, H | 11/2, A | 9/27, A | 11/30, H | 10/19, A | n/a | 10/5, H | MN | 12 |
| 13 | ILL | miss | 10/12, A | miss | 11/9, H | miss | miss | 11/2, A | ILL | 13 |
| 14 | RU | 11/16, A | 9/28, H | 11/30, H | 11/23, A | 10/12, H | 10/5, A | n/a | RU | 14 |
| . | Team | tOSU | UW | PSU | MSU | IU | UMD | RU | Team | . |
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 14 | . | Rank |
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My initial thoughts by team:
- Ohio State: The Buckeyes are the best team, at least according to ELA, but they play their chief rival (per ELA, this year, and in general) on the road. That obviously hurts Ohio State's CCG chances but other than the location of "THE GAME", I think that Ohio State's schedule is substantially more favorable than Michigan's. Ie, I think it is reasonably likely that Ohio State could lose THE GAME and go to Indianapolis anyway where I think Michigan's chances of getting to Indianapolis after losing to Ohio State are remote. After Michigan, the Buckeye's next toughest road game is Northwestern and nobody confuses Ryan Field for Camp Randall so that helps the Buckeyes a lot.
- Michigan: The obvious key for Michigan is to beat the Buckeyes at home but even if they accomplish that, the Wolverines still have two road games in VERY hostile environments against good teams. Trips to Happy Valley and Camp Randall are not easy and Michigan has to make both of those trips. It would certainly be ironic if Jim Harbaugh finally got beating Ohio State off of his to-do list but failed to win the division anyway because of two other losses.
- Penn State: The Nittany Lions best chance for a trip to Indianapolis might just be divisional balance. If the Buckeyes, Wolverines, and Nittany Lions all win the home games among each other then they'll all be 1-1 in those games and CCG representation would come down to how they each do against the rest of the league and/or the three-way tiebreaker. In addition to the games against tOSU and M, Penn State also has potentially tricky trips to Kinnick, East Lansing, and the Bank.
- Michigan State: Dantonio's squad lately seems to be a competent offense away from being a CG contender. This year it will be tricky for them even if they do manage to attain competence on offense. They travel to The Shoe, The Big House, Camp Randall, and Evanston and even an EXTREMELY good team would be lucky to go 2-2 through that gauntlet.
- Indiana: The Hoosiers host both Ohio State and Michigan but they travel to PSU, MSU, PU, UNL, and UMD. I just can't see a plausible path to Indy.
- Maryland: Personally, I think that ELA might be a little overly bearish on the Terps but I still can't see a plausible path to Indy. They do host two of the top-3 (M, PSU) but it would still take an upset to win either of those games and both would be beyond shocking. Even if they managed to go 2-1 against the top-3, they would still need to contend with road games against MSU, MN, and PU.
- Rutgers: IMHO, the Scarlet Knights are more likely to go winless in B1G play than to play in the B1GCG.
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Which scenario would Wolverine fans prefer of the following two?:
1) Lose to OSU and ND, but win the B1G East Division.
or
B) Beat OSU and ND, but finish 2nd or lower in the B1G East standings.
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Which scenario would Wolverine fans prefer of the following two?:
1) Lose to OSU and ND, but win the B1G East Division.
or
B) Beat OSU and ND, but finish 2nd or lower in the B1G East standings.
Who wouldn't want scenario #1? OSU and ND are huge, but a Big Ten championship is literally the highest regular season thing Michigan can theoretically accomplish.
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As for the topic, if this ordering stands, there's a massive gap between 1/2 and 3. But I don't think this ordering will stand.
I think MSU and that defense will rise to be in the mix.
My guess is that between (a) still never having accomplished anything without Joe Moorehead and (b) likely suffering the nation's worst transfer portal attrition, Franklin will plummet in a setup for a December 2020 firing. Granted, most of this is about how indispensable Moorehead was and how he hasn't been adequately replaced. That's my way of admitting that much of the attrition has been from the realm of also-rans. Still: they lost such a volume of guys that now their scholarship numbers are *at least* ten men fewer than the 85-man limit. At a minimum, assuming everyone else stays healthy, that's worrisome for depth and the scout team.
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Who wouldn't want scenario #1? OSU and ND are huge, but a Big Ten championship is literally the highest regular season thing Michigan can theoretically accomplish.
Of course a B1G East Title doesn't guarantee you a Big Ten Title. But it does get you an at bat in the Big Ten CCG, assuming you win the tie breaker if there is one (we'll say you do for this exercise).
In theory you could still make the playoffs in scenario 2, if the lone blemish is to an undefeated Penn St or some such.
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Until the B1G West can show it can win a CCG, I'll reserve judgement. The B1G East has a lockdown on the CCG right now.
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never fear, Scott Frost is back in Lincoln
it's just a matter of time
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Sounds a lot like what was being said in 2010. Ya know, UNL running all of the Big Ten and all that.
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as you know me well, I wasn't saying it in 2010, and I'm joshing tonight
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Me too.
#
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in other words
my judgement is reserved
as it was in 2010
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Of course a B1G East Title doesn't guarantee you a Big Ten Title. But it does get you an at bat in the Big Ten CCG, assuming you win the tie breaker if there is one (we'll say you do for this exercise).
In theory you could still make the playoffs in scenario 2, if the lone blemish is to an undefeated Penn St or some such.
In theory maybe but in practice it would be pretty unlikely.
FWIW: I agree with @Anonymous Coward (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1513) . Winning the B1G-E is now MORE important to me than beating Michigan. Obviously both is best and in most years it will be difficult or impossible to win the B1G-E without beating Michigan but, given the choice between a win in Ann Arbor and a berth in Indianapolis, I'd take the berth in Indianapolis without hesitating.
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As for the topic, if this ordering stands, there's a massive gap between 1/2 and 3. But I don't think this ordering will stand.
Even if we assume that @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's ordering is correct, it still makes a HUMONGOUS difference where the gaps are and how big those gaps are.
The best-case-scenario for Michigan is what you suggested: A massive gap between 1/2 and 3. In that case:
- #2 Michigan should beat #1 tOSU because the Wolverines get HFA for that game.
- #2 Michigan should beat #3 PSU on the road because of the massive gap.
- #2 Michigan should do no worse than 6-1 against their other seven conference opponents (vsIA, @UW, vsMSU, @IU, @UMD, @IL, vsRU) because they are just a lot better than those teams so even 6-1 allows for one upset.
Thus, Michigan should win the B1G-E because they'll have the H2H tiebreaker over the Buckeyes.
OTOH, if there are a top-3 then a big gap before #4 that would be best for Penn State. In that case the Buckeyes, Wolverines, and Nittany Lions should all go 1-1 against each other.
Continuing to assume that ELA's ordering is correct, it also matters how much better the B1G-E's big three are than #4 Iowa, #5 UW, and #6 NU. Ohio State (NU), Michigan (UW), and Penn State (IA) each play one of those teams on the road.
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I think MSU and that defense will rise to be in the mix.
I disagree for two reasons:
First, I have absolutely no faith in that offensive staff producing anything resembling a competent offense. Thus, even if they have a NC-worthy defense, they'll still have to carry their incompetent offense. That is the type of team that can beat anybody on a given day (because the D is good enough to many any game winnable) but also lose to anybody on a given day (because the O is bad enough to make any game losable). That type of team might just win in the Shoe or the Big House or knock off PSU at home but they won't be "in the mix" because they'll also lose two or three games to non-contenders.
Second, even if MSU has an elite team (both sides of the ball) this year, that schedule is just brutal. They get four of their five toughest opponents on the road. Travelling to the Shoe, the Big House, and Camp Randall all in one year is just not a recipe for a CG appearance.
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FWIW, tiebreakers:
In a two-team tie the tiebreaker is H2H.
In a multiple-team tie, the following steps are used with the stipulation that if only two teams remain after any step (or sub-step), the H2H winner between those two wins:
1) H2H...2H
2) Divisional Record
3) Record against the next highest placed team(s) in the division, then the next, then the next, etc
4) Record against all common conference opponents
5) SOS as determined by cumulative winning percentage of non-divisional opponents
6) Record against the best team(s) in the other division (note that for this step, 1-0 is better than 0-0)
7) Overall record not including games against FCS teams
8) Random Draw
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I disagree for two reasons:
First, I have absolutely no faith in that offensive staff producing anything resembling a competent offense. Thus, even if they have a NC-worthy defense, they'll still have to carry their incompetent offense. That is the type of team that can beat anybody on a given day (because the D is good enough to many any game winnable) but also lose to anybody on a given day (because the O is bad enough to make any game losable). That type of team might just win in the Shoe or the Big House or knock off PSU at home but they won't be "in the mix" because they'll also lose two or three games to non-contenders.
Second, even if MSU has an elite team (both sides of the ball) this year, that schedule is just brutal. They get four of their five toughest opponents on the road. Travelling to the Shoe, the Big House, and Camp Randall all in one year is just not a recipe for a CG appearance.
FWIW, my definition of "in the mix" may be more lax than yours. Mostly I mean to emphasize my prediction that PSU will struggle to "James Franklin will get fired next year" levels.
I completely agree about the MSU offense. But with that defense they'll still be better than PSU. Hence what i said about the massive gap if the ordering stands. If PSU is a tire fire and MSU is *not* better ... woof.
Anyway, this is not a good year for the East. Should be strong at the top but uncharacteristically thin after that. Unless someone like MSU or Maryland really surprises.
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In theory maybe but in practice it would be pretty unlikely.
FWIW: I agree with @Anonymous Coward (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1513) . Winning the B1G-E is now MORE important to me than beating Michigan. Obviously both is best and in most years it will be difficult or impossible to win the B1G-E without beating Michigan but, given the choice between a win in Ann Arbor and a berth in Indianapolis, I'd take the berth in Indianapolis without hesitating.
OSU has made the Playoffs without getting to Indy, so it's not THAT far fetched.
Perhaps PSU drops a game to Pitt but then runs the table in the Big Ten. In that case Michigan's one loss to Penn St might be viewed as a "better loss" than PSU's one loss to Pitt.
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In that scenario, for Michigan to be in and PSU out, PSU would absolutely have to lose more than once ... just like when they got passed over in 2016.
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In that scenario, for Michigan to be in and PSU out, PSU would absolutely have to lose more than once ... just like when they got passed over in 2016.
Okay. So they drop another noncon game in addition to Pitt, but don't lose any of their Big Ten games.
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My initial thoughts by team:
After Michigan, the Buckeye's next toughest road game is Northwestern and nobody confuses Ryan Field for Camp Randall so that helps the Buckeyes a lot.
Somewhere NU Wildcat is fixing to whizz in your cheerios
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Somewhere NU Wildcat is fixing to whizz in your cheerios
I get what you are saying but as I recall, Marcel was as aware as anyone that Ryan Field isn't very intimidating. I recall that being a frustration of his.
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Sometimes, a place can lead to a loss even without being intimidating.
My general opinion is that "we" put too much emphasis on HFA though.
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OSU has made the Playoffs without getting to Indy, so it's not THAT far fetched.
Perhaps PSU drops a game to Pitt but then runs the table in the Big Ten. In that case Michigan's one loss to Penn St might be viewed as a "better loss" than PSU's one loss to Pitt.
It is possible but I agree with the above comments that PSU would absolutely have to lose AT LEAST one other game. However, it wouldn't HAVE to be a non-conference game. It could be a conference game because in that scenario PSU would still win the H2H tiebreaker. It could also be the CCG particularly if the B1G-W Champion was not highly ranked/respected. It, or rather they, could also be both.
Ie, consider this scenario:
1) tOSU loses to at least PSU and M in conference.
2) PSU beats the Buckeyes (in Columbus) and the Wolverines (at home) but loses to Pitt and at Iowa.
3) Other than their loss at Penn State, the Wolverines run the table including a quality win over a highly ranked Notre Dame squad.
4) The B1G-W is very evenly matched and becomes a circular firing squad where everybody loses a few games and the eventual B1G-W CG representative is a team that has two conference losses and an OOC loss.
5) In a surprise upset, B1G-E champion Penn State loses to the 9-3 B1G-W Champion in the B1GCG.
At that point the B1G's CFP possibilities would be:
B1G Champion, 10-3 B1G-W Champ (with an OOC loss and two conference losses)
B1G-E Champion, 10-3 Penn State (with losses to Iowa, Pitt, and the B1G-E Champ)
B1G-E co-Champion, 11-1 Michigan with a road loss to Penn State
Based on what the committee has shown us in the past, I think it is clear that the two three-loss B1GCG participants would be out but 11-1 Michigan with quality wins over ND and tOSU and a "quality loss" on the road to Penn State would probably get in. Note that in this scenario it helps Michigan substantially if the Buckeyes are 10-2 because then they could have wins over two top-10ish teams (tOSU, ND).
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Moving on: your question seemed to ask without this much nuance which is better to win, championships or rivalry games. The vague chance of a non-champ getting to the CoFoPO is a "sort of championship" (at least in the hanging Final Four banners in basketball sense). If you want to include that with the rivalry game scenario to sweeten the pot and make it more complicated, we can do that, though doing that does ruin the "would you prefer rivalry wins or championships" aspect. Anyway, if we do that, they yes, I want to beat ND, OSU and make the CoFoPO. Because the CoFoPO is enough of a sweetener for that pot to change everything.
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Well okay. I suppose the initial line of questioning was the rivalry vs championships, but your initial reply assumed a big ten title instead of divisional title, and dismissed the idea that a title of some sort could still be won without going to Indy. So I got a little sidetracked. Anyway you are correct about the initial spirit of the question as during the John Cooper years I'd've rather gone 1-11 with a win over Michigan than 11-1 with a Big Ten title and a loss to Michigan. So was wondering if the same spirit was present amongst Michigan fans now that the situation is reversed. So I'll put you down as a no. And since you are the lone respondent I will go ahead and roll with this singular data point and attribute it to the Maize masses.
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My initial thoughts by team:
- Ohio State: The Buckeyes are the best team, at least according to ELA, but they play their chief rival (per ELA, this year, and in general) on the road. That obviously hurts Ohio State's CCG chances but other than the location of "THE GAME", I think that Ohio State's schedule is substantially more favorable than Michigan's. Ie, I think it is reasonably likely that Ohio State could lose THE GAME and go to Indianapolis anyway where I think Michigan's chances of getting to Indianapolis after losing to Ohio State are remote. After Michigan, the Buckeye's next toughest road game is Northwestern and nobody confuses Ryan Field for Camp Randall so that helps the Buckeyes a lot.
- Michigan State: Dantonio's squad lately seems to be a competent offense away from being a CG contender. This year it will be tricky for them even if they do manage to attain competence on offense. They travel to The Shoe, The Big House, Camp Randall, and Evanston and even an EXTREMELY good team would be lucky to go 2-2 through that gauntlet.
I know it's just a nit pick but; for OSU, Northwestern is no Camp Randell. For MSU, Evanston is part of the Gauntlet.
I don't think you can play it both ways. Either it's a big deal to play in Chicago or it isn't.
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My initial thoughts by team:
- Indiana: The Hoosiers host both Ohio State and Michigan but they travel to PSU, MSU, PU, UNL, and UMD. I just can't see a plausible path to Indy.
- Maryland: Personally, I think that ELA might be a little overly bearish on the Terps but I still can't see a plausible path to Indy. They do host two of the top-3 (M, PSU) but it would still take an upset to win either of those games and both would be beyond shocking. Even if they managed to go 2-1 against the top-3, they would still need to contend with road games against MSU, MN, and PU.
If they were to bus to a few of their road games then Indiana could go through Indy on their way to MSU and PSU, while Maryland would most likely traverse Indianapolis on their way to Purdue.
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I know it's just a nit pick but; for OSU, Northwestern is no Camp Randell. For MSU, Evanston is part of the Gauntlet.
I don't think you can play it both ways. Either it's a big deal to play in Chicago or it isn't.
That is a fair point, but I'll try to explain:
I think that Ryan Field is less intimidating than Randall or Kinnick. Nonetheless, from MSU'S perspective it would be easier to play them at home than on the road.
Even if NU's HFA is zero, playing them there means that MSU doesn't get their own HFA.
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It is possible but I agree with the above comments that PSU would absolutely have to lose AT LEAST one other game. However, it wouldn't HAVE to be a non-conference game. It could be a conference game because in that scenario PSU would still win the H2H tiebreaker. It could also be the CCG particularly if the B1G-W Champion was not highly ranked/respected. It, or rather they, could also be both.
Ie, consider this scenario:
1) tOSU loses to at least PSU and M in conference.
2) PSU beats the Buckeyes (in Columbus) and the Wolverines (at home) but loses to Pitt and at Iowa.
3) Other than their loss at Penn State, the Wolverines run the table including a quality win over a highly ranked Notre Dame squad.
4) The B1G-W is very evenly matched and becomes a circular firing squad where everybody loses a few games and the eventual B1G-W CG representative is a team that has two conference losses and an OOC loss.
5) In a surprise upset, B1G-E champion Penn State loses to the 9-3 B1G-W Champion in the B1GCG.
At that point the B1G's CFP possibilities would be:
B1G Champion, 10-3 B1G-W Champ (with an OOC loss and two conference losses)
B1G-E Champion, 10-3 Penn State (with losses to Iowa, Pitt, and the B1G-E Champ)
B1G-E co-Champion, 11-1 Michigan with a road loss to Penn State
Based on what the committee has shown us in the past, I think it is clear that the two three-loss B1GCG participants would be out but 11-1 Michigan with quality wins over ND and tOSU and a "quality loss" on the road to Penn State would probably get in. Note that in this scenario it helps Michigan substantially if the Buckeyes are 10-2 because then they could have wins over two top-10ish teams (tOSU, ND).
But to get back at the sidetrack for just a sec, I think that the Wolverines would be far more likely to make the Playoffs under this scenario that you have laid out than as a 2-loss team with a Big Ten Title.
Maybe even with only two of those three PSU losses, as the Lions would still have two losses to Michigan's one (@PSU).
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I know it's just a nit pick but; for OSU, Northwestern is no Camp Randell. For MSU, Evanston is part of the Gauntlet.
I don't think you can play it both ways. Either it's a big deal to play in Chicago or it isn't.
I see what you're saying, but recent records seem to call for context. MSU is 1-4 v NU in the last five. Let's admit that the record is 1-1 in Evanston over that time, as opposed to 0-3 in EL. Even then, it's fair to treat Evanston as different for OSU than MSU.
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Anyway you are correct about the initial spirit of the question as during the John Cooper years I'd've rather gone 1-11 with a win over Michigan than 11-1 with a Big Ten title and a loss to Michigan. So was wondering if the same spirit was present amongst Michigan fans now that the situation is reversed. So I'll put you down as a no.
I can't speak for the full fanbase, but I honestly don't think Michigan ever felt that way, maybe some individuals but never as a popular take. I know I've read OSU fans say this, but I never thought they were typing it genuinely. No rivalry win has ever been more valuable than 11 other wins plus a championship. Or so I thought.
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I can't speak for the full fanbase, but I honestly don't think Michigan ever felt that way. Likewise, I've often read OSU fans say this, but I never thought they were typing it genuinely. No rivalry win has ever been more valuable than 11 other wins plus a championship. Or so I thought.
Well I don't feel the same way today, but did back when wins in THE GAME were seemingly impossible to come by. But with three rivalry games instead of one and a lengthy Big Ten Title drought hanging over your head, I can see where it might be a little different from the Wolverine's perspective in the modern day.
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Another noteworthy difference is that you can remember a time when Michigan dominated the series, whereas I started watching the Buckeyes the year that John Cooper was hired.
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Being born in 1983 means I am of that age, but it wasn't until I matriculated in 2001 that I liked football. So I don't have any John Cooper memories. I feel lucky my parents gave 2001 season tickets as a birthday gift before my freshman year. Being part of that crowd hooked me. In high school and before, I never watched a Michigan game. I was very pro-Michigan as a university and in hockey but was unaware of them for football. That said more about me, though, and my feelings about sports other than hockey. I only attended one HS football game as a HS student and didn't at the time get why it was america's favorite sport. Michigan Stadium changed that for me. Not the game itself, but the pageantry and how I'd never seen a sea of so many unified people. It was all so highly addictive.
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Prediction: Michigan has a new high flying offense and hums along to a 10-1 record in the finale vs Ohio State in a huge showdown for all the marbles only to get embarrassed and lose to the arch rival...AGAIN. Recurring theme here.
Jim Cooperbaugh just can’t get over the hump.
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Well okay. I suppose the initial line of questioning was the rivalry vs championships, but your initial reply assumed a big ten title instead of divisional title, and dismissed the idea that a title of some sort could still be won without going to Indy. So I got a little sidetracked. Anyway you are correct about the initial spirit of the question as during the John Cooper years I'd've rather gone 1-11 with a win over Michigan than 11-1 with a Big Ten title and a loss to Michigan. So was wondering if the same spirit was present amongst Michigan fans now that the situation is reversed. So I'll put you down as a no. And since you are the lone respondent I will go ahead and roll with this singular data point and attribute it to the Maize masses.
At this f’n point I’ll take a win over OSU over ANYTHING. I’d rather go 1-11 with a win vs OSU than 11-1 and another fricken loss. They’ve got to start winning that gd game. NOW.
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Being born in 1983 means I am of that age, but it wasn't until I matriculated in 2001 that I liked football. So I don't have any John Cooper memories. I feel lucky my parents gave 2001 season tickets as a birthday gift before my freshman year. Being part of that crowd hooked me. In high school and before, I never watched a Michigan game. I was very pro-Michigan as a university and in hockey but was unaware of them for football. That said more about me, though, and my feelings about sports other than hockey. I only attended one HS football game as a HS student and didn't at the time get why it was america's favorite sport. Michigan Stadium changed that for me. Not the game itself, but the pageantry and how I'd never seen a sea of so many unified people. It was all so highly addictive.
(https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/72628040.jpg)
Okay, so MDot's vote evens up the score.
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Michigan is reminding me of Georgia circa 2005 a lot these days. Some good years, even a couple conference crowns, but always a loss in a key game and nearly always a loss to Florida. No MCs of course, not even a shot at one in the BCS era. Good years, but disappointing in a lot of ways.
It got to where beating Florida was all that really mattered. Today Alabama has usurped that title. For now.
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At this f’n point I’ll take a win over OSU over ANYTHING. I’d rather go 1-11 with a win vs OSU than 11-1 and another fricken loss. They’ve got to start winning that gd game. NOW.
As someone who was a student at Ohio State during the 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, and 1997 seasons, I definitely know how you feel, but I think a few things are different now:
When I was a student, tOSU went 1-4 against Michigan. Oddly, the one win was in one of only two years that Michigan had a better team. When I was a student, Ohio State was 0-3 against Michigan when the Buckeyes had the better team and 1-1 when Michigan had the better team.
Cooper's early Michigan losses (1988-1991) were to clearly superior teams. From 1988-1991 Michigan finished with a better record every year. 1992 was an odd/transitional year. Michigan was really good (9-0-3) but they tied a high-end team (ND) and two inferior teams (IL, tOSU).
The Cooper losses that REALLY bothered me were these three games when Ohio State had a clearly better team and lost anyway:
- 1993: Ohio State came in 9-0-1, Michigan came in 6-4. Worse, two of Michigan's losses were to teams that Ohio State beat (MSU, IL).
- 1995: Ohio State came in 11-0, Michigan came in 8-3.
- 1996: Ohio State came in 10-0, Michigan came in 7-3. Worse, two of Michigan's losses were to teams that Ohio State did not just beat but teams that Ohio State flat out annihilated (PU, PSU).
It got to the point where it just felt to us (tOSU fans) like it wouldn't matter if John Cooper got the 85 Bears and dressed them up in Ohio State uniforms, he'd still find a way to lose to Michigan.
As I see it, two things are different. First, Michigan hasn't been routinely losing to inferior Ohio State teams. The other thing that is different is that the CFP has just changed the game. Back in the 1990's when a lot of Ohio State fans (including me) said we'd rather go 1-10 with a win over Michigan than 11-1 with another Michigan loss, there wasn't really a chance to win a NC without beating Michigan. Now, with the CFP, it IS realistically possible for the loser of THE GAME to win an NC if the cards all fall just right.
In 2019 if either tOSU or M clinches a B1GCG berth prior to THE GAME and heads into THE GAME at 11-0 it would be not just possible but likely that they could lose THE GAME and still make the CFP with a B1GCG win.
So consider just that scenario, you get two choices (for fans of either team):
- Win the rivalry but lose the B1GCG and miss the CFP, or
- Lose the rivalry but win the B1GCG, get to the CFP and win an NC
I would choose the latter and it isn't even close.
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As someone who was a student at Ohio State during the 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, and 1997 seasons, I definitely know how you feel, but I think a few things are different now:
When I was a student, tOSU went 1-4 against Michigan. Oddly, the one win was in one of only two years that Michigan had a better team. When I was a student, Ohio State was 0-3 against Michigan when the Buckeyes had the better team and 1-1 when Michigan had the better team.
Cooper's early Michigan losses (1988-1991) were to clearly superior teams. From 1988-1991 Michigan finished with a better record every year. 1992 was an odd/transitional year. Michigan was really good (9-0-3) but they tied a high-end team (ND) and two inferior teams (IL, tOSU).
The Cooper losses that REALLY bothered me were these three games when Ohio State had a clearly better team and lost anyway:
- 1993: Ohio State came in 9-0-1, Michigan came in 6-4. Worse, two of Michigan's losses were to teams that Ohio State beat (MSU, IL).
- 1995: Ohio State came in 11-0, Michigan came in 8-3.
- 1996: Ohio State came in 10-0, Michigan came in 7-3. Worse, two of Michigan's losses were to teams that Ohio State did not just beat but teams that Ohio State flat out annihilated (PU, PSU).
It got to the point where it just felt to us (tOSU fans) like it wouldn't matter if John Cooper got the 85 Bears and dressed them up in Ohio State uniforms, he'd still find a way to lose to Michigan.
As I see it, two things are different. First, Michigan hasn't been routinely losing to inferior Ohio State teams. The other thing that is different is that the CFP has just changed the game. Back in the 1990's when a lot of Ohio State fans (including me) said we'd rather go 1-10 with a win over Michigan than 11-1 with another Michigan loss, there wasn't really a chance to win a NC without beating Michigan. Now, with the CFP, it IS realistically possible for the loser of THE GAME to win an NC if the cards all fall just right.
In 2019 if either tOSU or M clinches a B1GCG berth prior to THE GAME and heads into THE GAME at 11-0 it would be not just possible but likely that they could lose THE GAME and still make the CFP with a B1GCG win.
So consider just that scenario, you get two choices (for fans of either team):
- Win the rivalry but lose the B1GCG and miss the CFP, or
- Lose the rivalry but win the B1GCG, get to the CFP and win an NC
I would choose the latter and it isn't even close.
I hear you, but I just want a win over Ohio State. Can’t take it anymore.
It’s 2019. Since the year 2000 Michigan has beaten Ohio State....THRICE. So 3 times in basically 20 years. I just want a damn win over Ohio State at this point. The domination started with Tressel toying with LC and forcing him into retirement. This OSU run of domination is even more dominate than Michigan had over Cooper. Can’t take it anymore man. It’s hardly even a rivalry anymore. Im at the point where if Jim doesn’t win this AT home with a SR QB vs Not Urban Meyer and the Georgia QB castoff then I’m done with him.
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Michigan is facing structural issues versus OSU. Like Medina said, we are losing because we are the worse program, not because we can't handle the psychology of the game. Program inadequacy is the kind of thing that takes a minimum of 5-10 years to correct, up to a maximum of infinite years (if for example the 2000s were a watershed decade rather than just another ol' decade).
I don't care which years the next win or all the next wins arrive but if Michigan wins 40% of the time over the next 5-10 years after the recruiting and program advantage OSU built over the previous 20 years, then Harbaugh will rank somewhere between magician and "not entirely sure ... but certainly worth the money and absolutely insane to fire."
For now, I have no choice but to be pleased by the trajectory of the programs. That Michigan is on the cusp again in November. That, from 2016-2018, OSU week has been more up in the air than was normal from 2001-2015. Michigan is clearly improving as a program.
And then I'm hopeful that continuing this will close the gap when paired with OSU entering the afterstages of two decades of two legendary coaches and into a new unknown. Day starts with a fully built, highest end program, of course. But inheriting it isn't enough; he also has to maintain it like the legends did.
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Michigan is facing structural issues versus OSU. Like Medina said, we are losing because we are the worse program, not because we can't handle the psychology of the game. Program inadequacy is the kind of thing that takes a minimum of 5-10 years to correct, up to a maximum of infinite years (if for example the 2000s were a watershed decade rather than just another ol' decade).
I don't care which years the next win or all the next wins arrive but if Michigan wins 40% of the time over the next 5-10 years after the recruiting and program advantage OSU built over the previous 20 years, then Harbaugh will rank somewhere between magician and "not entirely sure ... but certainly worth the money and absolutely insane to fire."
For now, I have no choice but to be pleased by the trajectory of the programs. That Michigan is on the cusp again in November. That, from 2016-2018, OSU week has been more up in the air than was normal from 2001-2015. Michigan is clearly improving as a program.
And then I'm hopeful that continuing this will close the gap when paired with OSU entering the afterstages of two decades of two legendary coaches and into a new unknown. Day starts with a fully built, highest end program, of course. But inheriting it isn't enough; he also has to maintain it like the legends did.
This is a very calm and rational way to look at it and it is difficult for most of us, as fans, to do that.
You make a very interesting point. Over the past few years Harbaugh appears to have made the same transition that Cooper successfully made in the early 1990's.
If you go back to Earle Bruce, he started out great with a Rose Bowl and nearly a NC in his first year of 1979. From then through his sixth season and second (and last) Rose Bowl in the 1984 season Ohio State, as a program, was on an equal footing with Michigan:
- Ohio State won as the better team in 1979
- Michigan won as the better team in 1980 (it was close as to which team was better)
- Ohio State won in 1981 and both teams finished 9-3
- Ohio State won as the better team in 1982 (it was close as to which team was better)
- Michigan won in 1983 and both teams finished 9-3
- Ohio State won as the better team in 1984 (in their defense, Michigan would have been better if not for some injuries)
So by my count Ohio State was 3-0 as the better team, 0-1 as the inferior team, and 1-1 as equals.
Then, starting in 1985 and continuing for Bruce's last three years and Cooper's first five years, Michigan was generally a better team for eight years:
- Michigan won as the better team in 1985
- Michigan won as the better team in 1986
- Ohio State pulled off an upset as an inferior team in 1987
- Michigan won as the better team in each of 1988, 1989, 1990, and 1991
- Michigan was better in 1992 and the teams tied
Then Cooper accomplished the transition of catching or passing Michigan "as a program" but he just couldn't close the deal and beat the Wolverines "as a team":
- Ohio State lost as the better team in 1993
- Ohio State won as the inferior team in 1994
- Ohio State lost as the better team in 1995
- Ohio State lost as the better team in 1996
- Ohio State lost as the inferior team in 1997
- Ohio State won as the better team in 1998
- Ohio State lost as the inferior team in 1999
- Ohio State lost as the inferior team in 2000 (it was close as to which team was better)
So for Cooper's last eight years, by my count:
- Ohio State was the better team four years but only went 1-3
- Michigan was the better team four years and went 3-1
Ohio State had to change coaches to get over the hump and start actually beating Michigan but Cooper (whom I rarely defend) does deserve credit for setting the table for Tressel's success. Cooper got Ohio State "as a program" onto or arguably ahead of Michigan's level.
That really is the first step. Without that the best-case-scenario is simply to pull off an occasional upset. From Tressel's arrival up until the last few years, Ohio State was the better team and expected winner almost every year:
- 2001: Michigan was better but lost
- 2002: Ohio State was better and won
- 2003: The teams were about equal, Michigan won
- 2004: Michigan was better but lost
- 2005: Ohio State was better and won
- 2006: Ohio State was better and won
- 2007: Ohio State was better and won
- 2008: Ohio State was better and won
- 2009: Ohio State was better and won
- 2010: Ohio State was better and won (subsequently vacated)
- 2011: Michigan was better and won
- 2012: Ohio State was better and won
- 2013: Ohio State was better and won
- 2014: Ohio State was better and won
So by my count, for the 14 years prior to Harbaugh's arrival in Ann Arbor:
- Michigan was the better team three years, 1-2
- Michigan was about equal once, 1-0
- Michigan was the inferior team 10 times, 0-10
There are two separate problems here for Michigan. As I see it, the primary problem is simply being inferior most years. Even if the Wolverines had won in 2001, 2004, and 2011 when they had a better team as well as 2003 when the teams were about equal they still would only have been 4-10 against the Buckeyes simply because the Buckeyes were usually a better team.
Problem #2 is losing even when they are the better team. As I see it, this is a lesser problem. It is easier to correct. However, I should acknowledge here based on my 1993-1996 experience that this is the more annoying problem.
Harbaugh has arguably largely fixed problem #1:
- In 2015 Ohio State came into THE GAME 10-1, Michigan came in 9-2
- In 2016 Ohio State came into THE GAME 10-1, Michigan came in 10-1
- In 2017 Ohio State came into THE GAME 9-2, Michigan came in 8-3
- In 2018 Ohio State came into THE GAME 10-1, Michigan came in 10-1
So in his four years Harbaugh has entered the Ohio State game with a record either as good as or within one game of the Buckeyes. That is relatively equal. That part of the problem is largely fixed.
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The 2018 result is one I think that will linger unless Michigan can reverse it rather quickly over the next 3 years or so.
It would be interesting if anyone knows what the line was on recent Games as compared with the result. Has OSU won consistently ATS in The Game since whenever?
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It would be interesting if anyone knows what the line was on recent Games as compared with the result. Has OSU won consistently ATS in The Game since whenever?
I thought about doing the comparison that way but it just looked like a lot of work in part because I have no idea where to go to find spreads of games from prior years.
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Which is bigger--the joy of a win as the inferior team or the disappointment of a loss as the superior team?
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Which is bigger--the joy of a win as the inferior team or the disappointment of a loss as the superior team?
I think it depends on the recent history. I think that matters a LOT in rivalries. Earlier in this thread we saw @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) saying he'd rather be 1-11 with a win over Ohio State than 11-1 with a B1G Championship and a loss to Ohio State. When Cooper was losing EVERY year to Michigan I felt that way in reverse.
I think that rivalries are always more important to fans of the team that has been losing lately than they are to the team that has been winning lately. When Ohio State won in 2001 as an inferior team Ohio State fans were ecstatic. Our team hadn't won since 1998, hadn't won in Ann Arbor since 1987, had gone 2-10-1 in the previous 13 years under Cooper, and 3-12-1 in the previous 16 years (1985-2000). The rivalry was HUGE to us.
To put that in perspective, I turned 10 in 1985. I only vaguely remember the 1985 Rose Bowl and have not direct recollection of the 1984 season and the 1984 (and prior) wins over Michigan. Here are the Michigan games that I do remember:
- From the time I graduated from Ohio State through 2000 the Buckeyes went 1-3 against Michigan
- When I was a student at Ohio State the Buckeyes went 1-4 against Michigan
- When I was in High School the Buckeyes went 0-3-1 against Michigan
- When I was in Junior High the Buckeyes went 1-1 against Michigan
- When I was in 5th and 6th grade the Buckeyes went 0-2 against Michigan
While Ohio State fans were ecstatic over the 2001 win I think most Michigan fans simply thought "well it was bound to happen eventually" or "a broken clock is right twice a day", or "the sun shines even on a dog's #$$ once in a while". That is how I will feel initially when Michigan eventually beats Ohio State.
My thinking is that fans of the team that has been winning lately basically shrug off a loss and are happy but not ecstatic with wins. Conversely, fans of the team that has been losing lately get ecstatic over wins and crazy over losses.
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The 2018 result is one I think that will linger unless Michigan can reverse it rather quickly over the next 3 years or so.
It would be interesting if anyone knows what the line was on recent Games as compared with the result. Has OSU won consistently ATS in The Game since whenever?
2016 result stings way more for me. Not it even close.
That 2016 team blew a game they were absolutely dominating on the road in Columbus. Blew it in large part thanks to Wilton Speight gifting a 21 point swing to Ohio State. Forget the “blown call”, that call could’ve gone either way- went the wrong way for Michigan and I don’t think you can pin a loss on one call by the refs.
Speight fumbled led the ball at OSU’s 1 yard line, OSU recovers. Wipes away 6 and a PAT which is like 99%. So that’s 7 right there. If that wasn’t bad enough he threw a pick 6 and threw another bad interception that got returned to the red zone and with a PF call on Michigan tacked on to the end of the return OSU got the ball at the goal line- like the 2 yard line.
They’d have fared better just running the ball every single play out of the wildcat and sitting Speight on the bench that game.
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I think it depends on the recent history. I think that matters a LOT in rivalries. Earlier in this thread we saw @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) saying he'd rather be 1-11 with a win over Ohio State than 11-1 with a B1G Championship and a loss to Ohio State. When Cooper was losing EVERY year to Michigan I felt that way in reverse.
I think that rivalries are always more important to fans of the team that has been losing lately than they are to the team that has been winning lately. When Ohio State won in 2001 as an inferior team Ohio State fans were ecstatic. Our team hadn't won since 1998, hadn't won in Ann Arbor since 1987, had gone 2-10-1 in the previous 13 years under Cooper, and 3-12-1 in the previous 16 years (1985-2000). The rivalry was HUGE to us.
To put that in perspective, I turned 10 in 1985. I only vaguely remember the 1985 Rose Bowl and have not direct recollection of the 1984 season and the 1984 (and prior) wins over Michigan. Here are the Michigan games that I do remember:
- From the time I graduated from Ohio State through 2000 the Buckeyes went 1-3 against Michigan
- When I was a student at Ohio State the Buckeyes went 1-4 against Michigan
- When I was in High School the Buckeyes went 0-3-1 against Michigan
- When I was in Junior High the Buckeyes went 1-1 against Michigan
- When I was in 5th and 6th grade the Buckeyes went 0-2 against Michigan
While Ohio State fans were ecstatic over the 2001 win I think most Michigan fans simply thought "well it was bound to happen eventually" or "a broken clock is right twice a day", or "the sun shines even on a dog's #$$ once in a while". That is how I will feel initially when Michigan eventually beats Ohio State.
My thinking is that fans of the team that has been winning lately basically shrug off a loss and are happy but not ecstatic with wins. Conversely, fans of the team that has been losing lately get ecstatic over wins and crazy over losses.
Well put.
I didn't realize how dominant Michigan was from 1985 through 2000. 12-3-1 if I counted right. (To put THAT in perspective, I was in the Army for most of that time, and not always able to follow CFB. I don't think I knew that Oklahoma was playing for the 1985 national championship vs. Penn State until I saw on the cover of Sports Illustrated that the Sooners had won.)
We have an equivalent rivalry with Texas, of course. And that rivalry has usually gone in streaks.
OU won five straight from 2000 through 2004. Then Texas won four of five from 2005 through 2009.
Since Texas won the 2009 game, team records, final rankings, bowl selections, etc., have indicated that OU has consistently been the superior team. And over the last nine seasons, including the 2018 Big 12 CCG, OU has gone 7-3, which is good. But 4 of those wins were by one score or less. And two the losses came when OU was 5-0 and Texas 3-2, and OU 5-0 and Texas 1-4.
A win over the biggest rival is always something to celebrate. But when your team is supposedly the "better team," it can seem like there should be more of them, or that they should be by bigger margins instead of nail-biters. And, again when your team is supposed to be the better one, the losses can seem inexplicable, almost as if the other team should have just known that it was supposed to lose and played accordingly. Those losses I just described felt worse than the narrow wins felt good.
Rivalry games can cause us to lose our power of thinking objectively. But I hope things don't get so bad that I would prefer a 1-11 season with a win over Texas rather than an 11-1 season with a loss to Texas.
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those Horn fans can REALLY get on your nerves when they are putting it on ya
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Who wouldn't want scenario #1? OSU and ND are huge, but a Big Ten championship is literally the highest regular season thing Michigan can theoretically accomplish.
Lol, no. Any UM fan that says they would take a loss to OSU and still make the Big championship is lying.
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I hear you, but I just want a win over Ohio State. Can’t take it anymore.
It’s 2019. Since the year 2000 Michigan has beaten Ohio State....THRICE. So 3 times in basically 20 years. I just want a damn win over Ohio State at this point. The domination started with Tressel toying with LC and forcing him into retirement. This OSU run of domination is even more dominate than Michigan had over Cooper. Can’t take it anymore man. It’s hardly even a rivalry anymore. Im at the point where if Jim doesn’t win this AT home with a SR QB vs Not Urban Meyer and the Georgia QB castoff then I’m done with him.
And the last 2 UM wins over OSU:
2003- thanks Maurice Clarrett for costing us back to back National Championships
2011- OSUs worst team I think I’ve ever seen
The UM fans I know would also never take an OSU loss to get to the BIG championship.
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2003.. The Reynolds choke hold. Grrr...
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Lol, no. Any UM fan that says they would take a loss to OSU and still make the Big championship is lying.
Ha, except I'm saying it and suspect it's a majority opinion - at least among alumni and fans who don't live in Ohio.
And as medina expressed, the opposite opinion (Buckeyes preferring a Big Ten crown with a M loss more than an M win without a Big Ten crown) may be gaining popularity for OSU fans in the CFP era. Although I understand your incredulity, as historically it seems fewer OSU fans have felt this way than M fans.
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2003.. The Reynolds choke hold. Grrr...
That still annoys me because it was embarrassing. That was the year I went to Camp Randall and losing isn't embarrassing, I've dealt with that plenty. Having one of your guys do that was embarrassing!
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Rivalries appear often to be streaky ... UGA UF comes to mind also. For a while Florida was simply way better, but UGA caught up and still had issues.
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Rivalries appear often to be streaky ... UGA UF comes to mind also. For a while Florida was simply way better, but UGA caught up and still had issues.
these things definitely run in cycles.
As for the B1G East. I really see it as a 3 team race with OSU, M, and MSU. All 3 of them have their ? marks, but those are the clear cut top 3 in my opinion. MSU's defense should be fantastic again. If they can get anything out of their offense they will be a contender for the East. OSU has the most STARZ on paper. Michigan probably has the best combo of experience/talent returning and the best QB in the B1G returning. I think a lot for Michigan depends on Gattis obviously and the health of Tarik Black. If they can just get a healthy full season out of Tarik Black that passing attack could light up the scoreboard. I don't know how you'd cover Black, DPJ, and Nico Collins all at once. That's of course if Harbaugh doesn't get in Gattis' way and prevents him from going 3-4 wide outs and decided to go with his stupid ass 8 TE's and 3 FB formations.
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I suspect the mental aspect becomes a factor on both sides. I saw it when better UGA teams would lose to UF and just play badly. You keep expecting something bad to happen, and the other side expects something good to happen. Michigan has to be in that group right now, especially with the embarrassment last year.
And as this could be a "do or die" year and game, they could well feel the pressure again.
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these things definitely run in cycles.
As for the B1G East. I really see it as a 3 team race with OSU, M, and MSU. All 3 of them have their ? marks, but those are the clear cut top 3 in my opinion. MSU's defense should be fantastic again. If they can get anything out of their offense they will be a contender for the East. OSU has the most STARZ on paper. Michigan probably has the best combo of experience/talent returning and the best QB in the B1G returning. I think a lot for Michigan depends on Gattis obviously and the health of Tarik Black. If they can just get a healthy full season out of Tarik Black that passing attack could light up the scoreboard. I don't know how you'd cover Black, DPJ, and Nico Collins all at once. That's of course if Harbaugh doesn't get in Gattis' way and prevents him from going 3-4 wide outs and decided to go with his stupid ass 8 TE's and 3 FB formations.
You think MSU's ascendance is sustainable, while PSU will be unable to return to glory?
(Edit: you may be talking about 2019; I was more curious on going forward long-term.)
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I don't know why there's a discussion here.
Maryland finished as the SEC E champions, so we should have this year in the bag.
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That's of course if Harbaugh doesn't get in Gattis' way and prevents him from going 3-4 wide outs and decided to go with his stupid ass 8 TE's and 3 FB formations.
Leave Jimmy alone he's managing just fine.I agree about the WR's if Black can stay in the game it should be an interesting season.Open it up what the hell
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Fiu got all of his Big Ten prognostications up.
https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/06/big-ten-football-schedule-team-predictions-for-every-game-2019 (https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/06/big-ten-football-schedule-team-predictions-for-every-game-2019)
It's.... different.
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I think Fiutak always tries to be different to get clicks, and arouse controversy. If a less major site like his makes normal predictions, it gets lost.
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Now Steele and Fiutek both have Michigan winning the Big East.
So if OSU wins then Day should be a shoo in for coach of the year, having exceeded expectations, right?
Or would Kirk Ferentz edge him out by earning another contract extension?
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Picking UM isn't some off the wall guess. It also doesn't affect reality at all. The game is at AA of course and UM is predicted to be a top ten team by most. It's also reasonable to think the winner of TG will win the East.
And of course Reality might turn out quite differently. I doubt anyone predicted the score of TG last year, or even close to that.
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Michigan will have some holes this year, but it's still a rather balanced and experienced team. Harbaugh's rebuild should stay pointed in the same direction. The dream is always to win the East (which implies strong odds to win the conference). I'm not sure if this is the year, but it's probably the best team since the 2016 group that gave everyone as much as they could handle. Clearly Bill C, Athlon, and Steele agree. Which is something. But the heuristic that stands out more to me is that Vegas from the beginning has favored Michigan in every game. I'd never call that game-by-game predictive of the future, but as heuristics go, it's worth mentioning that this hasn't happened for Michigan since perhaps the 1990s.
We can safely infer two things from that: Michigan will have one of its better teams since 2000 and the Big Ten environment around Michigan is ostensibly more favorable than it has been in decades (excluding 2011).
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Now Steele and Fiutek both have Michigan winning the Big East.
So if OSU wins then Day should be a shoo in for coach of the year, having exceeded expectations, right?
Or would Kirk Ferentz edge him out by earning another contract extension?
Heh, the only shoo-in is Lovie winning 10 games. Anything else and you have to wait and see.
This is one of the rare years when OSU could have a coach of the year. First-year guy, new QB, losing a top rusher and a bunch of receivers. He wins all his games, he'll have a chance. Maybe could happen at 11-1, but would need everything to break his way.
The other contenders would be any West team that does surprisingly well (UW winning 10 games with an OSU/or Mich win, 10-plus wins from many of those other teams, Maryland/IU winning eight, Rutgers winning seven, MSU might have a puncher's chance at 10-2). You'd need a year like last year, or that year Kill won, where there just didn't feel like a great candidate. OSU probably should've gotten it in the Kill year, but the narrative momentum wasn't great for the Bucks.
It is what it is as a program where winning 71 percent of your games earns you a dunce cap. You never get to surprise, and a flawed award given to surprises is not within your grasp.
(There's a small irony in the way this shows the multifaceted nature of the "everybody gets a trophy" trope that can be made to mean anything at any given time. On one hand, an OSU fan will say a trophy is being given for not excellence. On the other, the reason for everybody getting a trophy is young kids being upset others get something, a thing that happens with many young ones, and parents giving in. And of course, wanting a trophy you shouldn't have is exactly what OSU fans pine for in this case. The larger thought is that trophies are dumb, more for parents than kids, and send the wrong lessons to those who get them as much as those who don't. /End Side Rant)
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If I had a web site, I'd be pushing Penn State or Maryland just to get clicks. Otherwise, it's basically a guess between OSU and UM.
First year coaches in the past have at times struggled, but in part because they took over a program headed down. Day does know what it's like to be HC for a day, or three.
I don't see OSU being worse than 10-2, same for UM.
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I think Michigan will be able to beat Penn State on the road and perhaps go into The Game undefeated. I have little confidence that Michigan will be able to defeat the Buckeyes.
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Any prediction about TG is really a guess, about a 50-50 chance. I would lean a bit to UM because it's a home game and Day is a new coach. But it might all come down to a tipped pass or badly timed fumble or penalty.
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. . .it's basically a guess between OSU and UM.
First year coaches in the past have at times struggled, but in part because they took over a program headed down. Day does know what it's like to be HC for a day, or three.
I don't see OSU being worse than 10-2, same for UM.
This is about where I am at.
I have no confidence in any offensive coaching staff that includes Jim Bolman. That and MSU's difficult schedule (tOSU, M, UW and NU all on the road) will eliminate the Spartans.
Penn State is a tougher call. I don't *THINK* that they can "reload" and they couldn't beat tOSU, M, or MSU last year so I just don't see them winning the B1G-E this year.
Maryland might be good enough to pull off an upset here or there but they just don't yet have the talent and depth to be a contender week-in and week-out.
Indiana might improve but they were sub .500 last year so "improvement" means getting to a bowl, not winning the B1G-E.
Rutgers is Rutgers.
That leaves tOSU and M. I confidently predict that one of them will clinch before THE GAME or, more likely, that THE GAME will be for a spot in the B1GCG.
As to THE GAME, I understand Temp430's hesitation. I felt the same way during the Cooper years. That said, Day is a new coach, this could be a new era, and TG is in Ann Arbor. Who knows?
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I'd agree that both are likely to be 10-1 or 11-0 going into TG. It's always possible for key injuries to lead to a collapse of sorts.
The West is more interesting of course, with Nebraska possibly making a run.
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I'd agree that both are likely to be 10-1 or 11-0 going into TG. It's always possible for key injuries to lead to a collapse of sorts.
The West is more interesting of course, with Nebraska possibly making a run.
Nebraska fascinates me, see B1G-W Race thread (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/2019-b1g-w-race/).
IMHO, their schedule means that there is only a very slight difference between 7-2 and 2-7. If they ARE a contender then getting their best four opponents at home will prop them up but if they aren't then HFA will be wasted in games they can't win anyway against the likes of tOSU, IA, UW, and NU while they could struggle in their road games.
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This is one of the rare years when OSU could have a coach of the year. First-year guy, new QB, losing a top rusher and a bunch of receivers. He wins all his games, he'll have a chance. Maybe could happen at 11-1, but would need everything to break his way.
If Urban didn't win it by guiding a 6-7 Tressel ball team to an undefeated season, then Day sure as Hell isn't going to win it by guiding the defending Big Ten Champions to an 11-1 finish.
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If Urban didn't win it by guiding a 6-7 Tressel ball team to an undefeated season, then Day sure as Hell isn't going to win it by guiding the defending Big Ten Champions to an 11-1 finish.
So I said you’d need EVERYTHING to break. You need an 8-4 west champ, and one from last year’s top 3. You need no bottom of the East teams to get OK.
But I didn’t factor in the OSU schedule. There’s no loss they could really take. Maybe Wisconsin, but Wisconsin would have to be good enough to win, but not good enough to get Chryst the award. A loss to PSU is a little late, and loss to Michigan is disqualifying. I was thinking they had a good non-conf to drop, but Cincinnati is the best there.
That 2012 team was a good option, but got jumped by PSU winning 8 after JoePa, starting McGloin, tying for 3rd in the conference after a bunch of transfers. If OSU is to win it, it needs the rest of the field cleared out. (2014 would’ve been good, but the early stink hadn’t fully worn off until after they gave out the award. That winner was one of the weakest ever)
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If Urban didn't win it by guiding a 6-7 Tressel ball team to an undefeated season, then Day sure as Hell isn't going to win it by guiding the defending Big Ten Champions to an 11-1 finish.
It seems disingenuous to emphasize that Urban inherited a broken "6-7" program. The main point of the conversation has been about achievements relative to expectations and 2012 wasn't really any different than any of Urban's other years in Columbus.
Sure, 6-7 was the 2011 record. Luke Fickell couldn't hold steady under the weird 1/2-year circumstances. But emphasizing it belies the fact that Meyer (a) inherited a fully operational Tressel juggernaut (i.e., the most talented Big Ten roster by far) and (b) was seen as the #1b sure thing coach in America after Saban. 6-7 in 2011 had no bearing on the team's talent (not on the prior recruiting, nor on the know-how of the veterans from the Tressel era).
As I recall, going undefeated in 2012 surprised us somewhere between "zero" and "negligibly." Now, if Day were to go undefeated or 11-1 this year, that would feel different. Sure, the roster is still the Big Ten's best, but there are two differences. (a) The margin is now smaller and (b) Day doesn't have the "#1b sure thing" status of Meyer.
Unlike Urban's arrival, including an expectation that the trajectory was either pointed up from Tressel or, at worst, pointed flat from the Big Ten summit, the P.R. around Day is uncertain. Now, the guesses about where the arrow points are "it could go any way except probably not up." So, all of Day's positive accomplishments these next three or so years will have to be seen as different than Urban's first three or so years. We knew what Meyer would be in 2012. With Day in 2019, we have little idea.
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It is what it is as a program where winning 71 percent of your games earns you a dunce cap. You never get to surprise, and a flawed award given to surprises is not within your grasp.
This!
A few Buckeye fans on here (most Brutus) like to complain about it and on the Ohio State boards it is a frequent complaint that the Ohio State HC never wins the COTY award but this statement sums up the situation. As a practical matter it is an award for the coach of the team that most exceeds expectations and at Ohio State the low for expectations is roughly 10-2. That means that even a 13-0 undefeated league championship season only slightly exceeds expectations and there is almost always going to be some cellar-dweller that gets hot and goes 8-4. Going 8-4 when you are expected to go 4-8 is a bigger margin than going 13-0 when you are expected to go 10-2 so the Ohio State coach is effectively ineligible for the time being.
I for one hope that the Ohio State coach remains effectively ineligible forever!
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I disagree with AC to a degree, namely I think that year wins in some and not others. Last year it would’ve, as we were short consensus candidates. Here’s the list of winning teams
NW at 8-4
UW at 12-0
PSU at 10-2, UW at 10-2 (PSU maybe a mite more deserving)
Iowa at 12-0
Minn at 8-4, tied second in the West,
MSU 11-1
PSU 8-4 off all the Joe Pa mess
Mich at 10-2 off the Rich Rod era
MSU at 11-1
Iowa at 10-2
PSU at 11-1
Illinois at 9-3 (Only the fourth time at 9 wins for the program since 1951)
UW at 11-1, first year coach
PSU at 11-1 following four losing seasons in five
Iowa at 9-2, conference champs with no RBs
MSU at 8-4 a year after 4-8, second most wins since 1990
Iowa at 11-1, first conference title since 1990.
Illinois at 10-1
NW at 8-4 co-conference champ off six wins in two years
Minn at 8-3, 1st bowl in 13 years, most wins since 1961
UW at 10-1, best regular season ever
Purdue at 8-3, most wins since 1980
NW as conference champ
NW as conference champ
PSU at 11-0
Wisconsin at 8-1-1, conference champ
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This!
A few Buckeye fans on here (most Brutus) like to complain about it and on the Ohio State boards it is a frequent complaint that the Ohio State HC never wins the COTY award but this statement sums up the situation. As a practical matter it is an award for the coach of the team that most exceeds expectations and at Ohio State the low for expectations is roughly 10-2. That means that even a 13-0 undefeated league championship season only slightly exceeds expectations and there is almost always going to be some cellar-dweller that gets hot and goes 8-4. Going 8-4 when you are expected to go 4-8 is a bigger margin than going 13-0 when you are expected to go 10-2 so the Ohio State coach is effectively ineligible for the time being.
I for one hope that the Ohio State coach remains effectively ineligible forever!
I think it’s like this:
every 8 or so years, OSU produces a team that would be eligible.
Every 6 or so years, the field is soft enough an eligible OSU team could win.
We’ve not lined those up. The closest was 2014. OSU was undone by Michigan being bad and playing with it’s food against IU and Minnesota.
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For the record I don't want anything to do with the CoY trophy. It is a participation trophy as far as I am concerned.
It should always go to the schools that don't have much else to play for. The Indianas, Purdues, and Michigans of the world.
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Ed Zachery
Don't care if Frost ever wins that award
Osborne rarely was honored and I'm fine with that
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For the record I don't want anything to do with the CoY trophy. It is a participation trophy as far as I am concerned.
It should always go to the schools that don't have much else to play for. The Indianas, Purdues, and Michigans of the world.
Getting the hate started early this year. Testify! :sign0151:
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I don't think an Ohio State or Clemson or Alabama puts much stock in the CotY award. It does seem like something for middle of the pack.
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Ed Zachery
Don't care if Frost ever wins that award
Osborne rarely was honored and I'm fine with that
Osborne got seven, but I think the Oklahoma factor helped there.
You best hope Frost wins it once. If it doesn’t, it means Neb likely never made the jump back up. (I guess Bo had his thunder stollen by Leach/Stoops when his team got 9 wins the first time, so maybe not)
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I don't think an Ohio State or Clemson or Alabama puts much stock in the CotY award. It does seem like something for middle of the pack.
The think is, I don’t think anyone really does. We argue about it because it’s fun, but we all know it basically is a one-year narrative measure. (Granted, a lot of things can probably impact one-year narrative measures in other ways).
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Yeah, I think it's an OK award for a coach who brought his team up from 4-8 to 8-4 or something, a Northwestern or Purdue.
It may overlook a coach who has done a great job building a program from the ground up over 5 years.
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You best hope Frost wins it once. If it doesn’t, it means Neb likely never made the jump back up. (I guess Bo had his thunder stollen by Leach/Stoops when his team got 9 wins the first time, so maybe not)
There are two ways that Frost could succeed at Nebraska and not win any COTY awards:
- 1) What you mentioned, he has a big jump year but some cellar-dweller has a larger jump as you mentioned, or
- 2) Frost's Nebraska teams improve more incrementally so that by the time he has that 11-2, 12-1, or 13-0 B1G Championship year it isn't THAT big of a jump from the previous year's 8-4, 9-3, or 10-2.
All-in-all, I don't think looking for COTY awards is a good way to determine if a team made a jump back up.
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Maybe a program with frequent CotY winners is simply one that is up and down, but never that far up really.
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Hey, I'm all for Frosty putting the freeze on the West this season and shocking the B1G and winning the award with a great record and all, but if he does all that and the award goes to the Maryland coach, I'm fine with that.
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Hey, I'm all for Frosty putting the freeze on the West this season and shocking the B1G and winning the award with a great record and all, but if he does all that and the award goes to the Maryland coach, I'm fine with that.
I can see it now. Frost wins the B1G CCG over a 12-0 Rutgers team whose coach wins B1G COTY...
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If Rutger goes 12-0 .... we're talking national.
I wonder what the largest turnaround is in P5 history. Ohio State did 6-7 to 12-0. Baylor did something.
Da Braves went wurst to first.
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I can see it now. Frost wins the B1G CCG over a 12-0 Rutgers team whose coach wins B1G COTY...
Urban Meyer
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If Rutger goes 12-0 .... we're talking national.
I wonder what the largest turnaround is in P5 history. Ohio State did 6-7 to 12-0. Baylor did something.
Da Braves went wurst to first.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/745281-college-football-worst-to-first-the-biggest-one-year-turnarounds-in-history#slide5 (https://bleacherreport.com/articles/745281-college-football-worst-to-first-the-biggest-one-year-turnarounds-in-history#slide5)
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It should always go to the schools that don't have much else to play for. The Indianas, Purdues, and Michigans of the world.
your career as a historian continues to skyrocket
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At times, there is a rather slim margin between 4-8 and 8-4, a field goal here, a fumble there, a tipped pass over yonder.
You might also miss playing the powers in the other division one year and sneak away with an upset.
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At times, there is a rather slim margin between 4-8 and 8-4, a field goal here, a fumble there, a tipped pass over yonder.
You might also miss playing the powers in the other division one year and sneak away with an upset.
Also schedule as we were discussing in your thread about HFA. I believe that Purdue's vs Nebraska's schedules could be the difference between 4-8 and 8-4 for a mediocre team.
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See the difference between MSU's 3-9 2016, 10-3 2017 and 7-5 2018.
The locker room issues maybe caused 5-7 to become 3-9, but 2016 and 2018 featured a ton of injuries to a thin roster, and some close losses. 2017 was perhaps the healthiest I can recall a team being all year, and they won the close ones with the exception of Northwestern. I don't think the gap between any of those 3 teams was very large at all, but it resulted in a 7 win improvement. I actually think 7-5 is probably about what all three teams should have gone.
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Yeah, this impacts teams that are middle of the road or somewhat above that, I agree, the most. Kentucky last year comes to mind a bit, though they did beat Florida on the road. The lost at A&M in OT then edged Vandy and Mizzou (near miracle) and then basically got clobbered at home by UGA and then lost to a pretty bad Tennessee team 24-7, showing perhaps the effect of the UGA loss (which was for the SEC E). Then they won the bowl game, nice season really, but some close calls.
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See the difference between MSU's 3-9 2016, 10-3 2017 and 7-5 2018.
The locker room issues maybe caused 5-7 to become 3-9, but 2016 and 2018 featured a ton of injuries to a thin roster, and some close losses. 2017 was perhaps the healthiest I can recall a team being all year, and they won the close ones with the exception of Northwestern. I don't think the gap between any of those 3 teams was very large at all, but it resulted in a 7 win improvement. I actually think 7-5 is probably about what all three teams should have gone.
MSU is always an interesting one in close games. Bill Connelly has a set of stats that say, if you put up these numbers against this schedule, this is on average what your record should look like. MSU's:
2016 4.9
2017 8.7
2018 7.5