CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on May 21, 2019, 02:31:58 PM
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Using @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's rankings from his Countdown thread, I organized this list of the B1G-W teams which shows which three cross-over B1G-E opponents each one of them face and which teams each of them face home and which away.
Note that this year each B1G-W team hosts two B1G-E teams and visits one B1G-E team. Here is the chart (again, uses ELA's rankings):
| Rank | . | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 13 | . | Rank |
| . | Team | Iowa | UW | NU | MN | PU | UNL | ILL | Team | . |
| 1 | tOSU | miss | 10/26, A | 10/18, H | miss | miss | 9/28, H | miss | tOSU | 1 |
| 2 | M | 10/5, A | 9/21, H | miss | miss | miss | miss | 10/12, H | UW | 2 |
| 3 | PSU | 10/12, H | miss | miss | 11/9, H | 10/5, A | miss | miss | PSU | 3 |
| 4 | Iowa | n/a | 11/9, H | 10/26, H | 11/16, A | 10/19, A | 11/29, H | 11/23, A | MSU | 4 |
| 5 | UW | 11/9, A | n/a | 9/28, A | 11/30, H | 11/23, A | 11/16, H | 10/19, H | M | 5 |
| 6 | NU | 10/26, A | 9/28, H | n/a | 11/23, A | 11/9, A | 10/5, H | 11/30, H | Iowa | 6 |
| 7 | MSU | miss | 10/12, H | 9/21, H | miss | miss | miss | 11/9, A | NU | 7 |
| 8 | MN | 11/16, H | 11/30, A | 11/23, H | n/a | 9/28, H | 10/12, A | 10/5, A | PU | 8 |
| 9 | PU | 10/19, H | 11/23, H | 11/9, H | 9/28, A | n/a | 11/2, A | 10/26, A | UNL | 9 |
| 10 | UNL | 11/29, A | 11/16, A | 10/5, A | 10/12, H | 11/2, H | n/a | 9/21, H | MD | 10 |
| 11 | IU | miss | miss | 11/2, A | miss | 11/30, H | 10/26, H | miss | IU | 11 |
| 12 | UMD | miss | miss | miss | 10/26, H | 10/12, H | 11/23, A | miss | MN | 12 |
| 13 | ILL | 11/23, H | 10/19, A | 11/30, A | 10/5, H | 10/26, H | 9/21, A | n/a | ILL | 13 |
| 14 | RU | 9/7, H | miss | miss | 10/19, A | miss | miss | 11/2, H | RU | 14 |
| . | Team | Iowa | UW | NU | MN | PU | UNL | ILL | Team | . |
| Rank | . | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 13 | . | Rank |
I hope the formatting works right. It reads for each B1G-W team going down. Ie: Iowa misses tOSU, travels to Michigan, hosts PSU, travels to UW, etc.
Edit: Thanks to @Anonymous Coward (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1513) , the formatting is now perfect!
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@Drew4UTk (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1) , I'm copy/pasting this from an excel spreadsheet. How can I get the formatting to work better?
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I think this is for W basketball. The title made me think you were collating all women's sports results.
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@Drew4UTk (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1) , I'm copy/pasting this from an excel spreadsheet. How can I get the formatting to work better?
This could help:
https://theenemy.dk/table/
There are others like it. Just good something about copying spreadsheets into message boards.
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Ive got a laundry list of stuff to do to page and will likely attack it next week... I'm two days and a wake up from having all kinds of time on my hands.
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My initial thoughts by team:
- Iowa: ELA has the Hawkeyes as the best team, but they have a tough schedule. Three of their four toughest opponents are on the road (M, UW, and NU) and that includes two likely B1G-W contenders. That will be tough to make up for.
- Wisconsin: I believe that the Badgers have probably the best combination of schedule and team to take the division this year. The bad news for them is that they play the two best B1G-E teams but the good news is that four of their five toughest opponents are at home (M, IA, NU, MSU). If they can sweep those games in the friendly confines of Camp Randall they'll be a near lock to go to Indianapolis even if they lose their two toughest road games (tOSU, MN).
- Northwestern: The best news for Marcel's Wildcats is that unlike the two aforementioned teams, they only have to play one of the top-3 teams from the B1G-E. This will be REALLY good news if the top B1G-E teams prove unbeatable for the B1G-W teams. In that case, Iowa and Wisconsin will effectively start out with two losses each (M and PSU for IA, tOSU and M for UW) while Northwestern will only start out with one (tOSU). After the top B1G-E teams, Northwestern hosts four of their next five toughest opponents (IA, MSU, MN, PU). To be a contender they will likely have to either sweep those four home games or else pull an upset at home over tOSU or in Camp Randall.
- Minnesota: The Gophers are the best team in the B1G-W to miss the top-2 teams in the B1G-E and they host the Nittany Lions so that helps. They host Wisconsin but travel to Iowa and Northwestern so that is something of a mixed bag. They should probably win the UMD (H), ILL (H), and RU (A) games. It might come down to how they do against PU (A) and UNL (H).
- Purdue: I've mentioned this in several threads but Purdue's schedule is GREAT if they are a borderline bowl-eligible type team and TERRIBLE if they are a CCG contender. They get their five worst opponents at home (IL, UMD, IU, UNL, MN) and their four best on the road (PSU, IA, UW, NU). That just screams 5-4 to me and it is pretty hard to get very far away from that. Even if the Boilermakers are MUCH better than anticipated it would be unlikely for them to do any better than 2-2 in the four tough road games and even if they are MUCH worse than anticipated it would be unlikely for them to do any worse than 3-2 in the five easy home games.
- Nebraska: The Cornhuskers have almost the exact inverse of Purdue's schedule. Their four toughest opponents are at home while four of their five easiest are on the road. That makes them a complete wildcard. If they are slightly better than ELA projects then 7-2 is likely and better than that is not out of the question. Conversely, if they are slightly worse than ELA projects than 2-7 is not unlikely and worse is not out of the question.
- Illinois: I do not think that Illinois has a credible chance to contend for the division but their schedule is a lot more similar to Nebraska's than Purdue's. I can't see them winning more than one of their road games (M, MSU, MN, PU) and even that would take an upset and close to .500 at home would be a remarkable accomplishment compared to recent Illinois history so I would see a 4-5 record as a rather remarkable sign of improvement.
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Thanks @Drew4UTk (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1) and @Anonymous Coward (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1513) . I'll look into it.
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Note that this year each B1G-W team hosts two B1G-E teams and visits one B1G-E team.
so, this is the year that the West gets the best of the East since home and away work in the West's favor?
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I think this is for W basketball. The title made me think you were collating all women's sports results.
Oh dyslexia how you vex me. Because now I read the subject line and think my last post was pretty dumb.
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To pillage my comments from the Nebraska thread: Between MN, IA, WI, NW, Pur & NE I could see the six of them going 3-3 against each other which makes their crossover schedules that much more important.
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2019 BIG TEN STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE RANKINGS
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-ten-2019-strength-of-schedule-rankings-michigan-wisconsin-facing-incredibly-tough-roads/ (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-ten-2019-strength-of-schedule-rankings-michigan-wisconsin-facing-incredibly-tough-roads/)
1 MICHIGAN
The Wolverines finish with what I project to be the most difficult schedule in the Big Ten, and one of the most difficult in the country. It's not hard to see why when you look at the schedule, either. The Wolverines open the season with Middle Tennessee, which shouldn't pose much of a threat. But then it's Army, and their other nonconference game is Notre Dame in late October in what will be the sixth of seven games in a seven-week stretch. Also, the Wolverines draw both Wisconsin (on the road) and Iowa from the West, as well as a road trip to Illinois, which balances it a bit, but it's still a road game. The good news is that while Penn State's on the road, Army, Iowa, Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State all have to come to Ann Arbor. The bad news is Michigan still has to play all of them.
2 WISCONSIN
Wisconsin's noncon isn't nearly as tricky as Michigan's. The season opens with a road game against South Florida, but Central Michigan and Kent State don't provide much of a challenge. What tips the scales here, however, is that the Badgers East draw is about as bad as it gets. Wisconsin may as well be in the East because it'll have to play Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State this season, along with all its West Division counterparts. If there's any good news, it's that of all of Wisconsin's fiercest opponents, only Ohio State will be outside of Madison. They have to travel to Lincoln too, and while Nebraska doesn't project to be as strong this year based on the last three seasons, that game could prove to be a lot more difficult than my projections currently show.
3 MICHIGAN ST.
Like all East Division teams, the Spartans will play two of their cross-divisional games on the road this season. The two road games the Spartans draw? Oh, just Northwestern and Wisconsin, the two teams that have won four of the five West Division titles since the current divisional alignment was created. Within the division, the Spartans will travel to both Michigan and Ohio State as well, all of which makes for a difficult time. The noncon isn't too bad, though, as Tulsa, Western Michigan and Arizona State all must make the trip to East Lansing.
4 NEBRASKA
This is where I feel the need to point out that the difference between No. 4 and No. 11 in these rankings is practically a rounding error. The schedules are all so similar as far as projected difficulty is concerned. Nebraska's noncon is headlined by a road trip to Colorado and has two home games against South Alabama and Northern Illinois. The Huskers draw Ohio State from the East, but that's in Lincoln, and it's also balanced out by getting Indiana and Maryland in their other cross-division games. Things could have been far worse. Ask Wisconsin. Speaking of Wisconsin, the Huskers do have the fortune of getting Wisconsin, Northwestern and Iowa in Lincoln this season.
5 MARYLAND
The Terps don't have the easiest noncon in the world. They open with Howard, which should be a win, but the next week it's Syracuse coming to town. The week after that it's a road game against a Temple team that's proven to be one of the stronger programs in the AAC in recent seasons. The Terps get both Penn State and Michigan at home this year, but must travel to Ohio State and Michigan State. They also get Purdue, Minnesota and Nebraska from the West. Nebraska is the only one at home.
6 IOWA
While the annual rivalry game with Iowa State only gets more difficult with each passing season (and it's in Ames this year), games against Miami (Ohio) and Middle Tennessee shouldn't be that big of a deal. What is a big deal is drawing a road trip to Michigan, as well as a home date with Penn State, though I suppose Rutgers at home helps soften that blow a bit. In the division, the Hawkeyes must go on the road for key games against Northwestern, Wisconsin and Nebraska. Still, the home slate projects to result in a lot of fans leaving Kinnick Stadium with a smile on their face this year.
7 OHIO ST.
Cincinnati had a nice season last year, but when the Bearcats are headlining your noncon, your noncon isn't that impressive. Which is where the Buckeyes sit heading into Ryan Day's first season running the program. FAU and Miami (Ohio) both come to The Horseshoe as well. In conference, the Buckeyes get Michigan State, Wisconsin and Penn State at home, but have to hit the road for Nebraska, Northwestern and the season finale against Michigan.
8 NORTHWESTERN
Starting the season with a road game against Stanford isn't easy, but two other noncon games against UNLV and UMass cancel that out a bit in these projections. The most challenging part of Northwestern's schedule will come between Sept. 21 and Oct. 26. Over those six weeks, they'll play Michigan State, at Wisconsin, at Nebraska, Ohio State and Iowa, with a bye between Nebraska and Ohio State. That's the stretch that's going to decide the 2019 season for these Wildcats. Also, the fact that Northwestern finishes the year with seven straight games could lead to an unexpected loss late in the season as well.
9 PURDUE
Purdue's nonconference schedule is quite respectable. They open with a road game against Nevada (why I do not know) and follow it up with home dates against Vanderbilt and TCU. That's two Power Five opponents and a G5 program that seems to be on an upward trend. Where they lose points in relation to their Big Ten brethren is in conference play. The Boilermakers do have to go on the road for Penn State but avoid Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State. Instead, they get Maryland and Indiana. The division schedule is a bit more complicated, as they'll be on the road for Iowa, Northwestern and Wisconsin.
10 RUTGERS
Rutgers' noncon won't do much for its cause should it be in playoff contention this year. Boston College is respectable enough, but UMass and Liberty don't do anything to move the needle. The Knights also benefit from a friendlier cross-division draw, getting Iowa, Minnesota and Illinois. In the division, they get Maryland, Ohio State and Michigan State at home, while going on the road for Michigan, Indiana and Penn State.
11 ILLINOIS
Illinois has one of the easier nonconference schedules in the Big Ten, playing Akron, UConn and Eastern Michigan. The UConn game is on the road, however, and Eastern Michigan has been one of the MAC's stronger teams of late, but still, it's Akron, UConn and Eastern Michigan. The Illini do draw both Michigan and Michigan State from the East, as well as Rutgers. In the division, they could benefit from getting Nebraska, Wisconsin and Northwestern in Champaign, but you can also argue getting their more "winnable" games against Minnesota and Purdue on the road is a detriment.
12 PENN ST.
I think it's safe to say that if Penn State's going to reach the playoff in 2019, it'll have to do so by winning the Big Ten because it's nonconference schedule of Idaho, Buffalo and Pitt won't boost the resume much. The Lions also avoid the West's bigger powers for the most part, as they'll travel to Iowa, but also get Purdue and Minnesota. In the East, they get Michigan at home but must go on the road for both Michigan State and Ohio State.
13 MINNESOTA
The Gophers noncon is more complicated than it looks. South Dakota State should be an easy win, but a road trip to Fresno State won't be (remember, Fresno nearly won at Minnesota last season), and an option team like Georgia Southern always causes problems. Minnesota's conference schedule is broken into two parts. There's the more accessible part and the more difficult part. The easier part is the open of conference play, which sees the Gophers playing at Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, at Rutgers and Maryland over five weeks. Then, following a bye, comes the harder part: Penn State, at Iowa, at Northwestern and Wisconsin in the final month. The Gophers will need to get off to a good start if they want to go bowling in 2019.
14 INDIANA
The Hoosiers play the softest nonconference slate in the conference. Like Illinois, they play UConn, but unlike Illinois, they get them at home. The rest of the noncon is Ball State in Indianapolis to open the season and Eastern Illinois. Of course, a home game with Ohio State is tossed between them as well, and UConn is immediately followed with a road trip to Michigan State, as well as dates with Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State and Michigan. Still, when you add all of it up, Indiana's overall SOS projection is dragged down quite a bit by that nonconference slate.
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King Barry's ultimate crossover scenario.
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"The King doth protest too much last time, methinks"
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To pillage my comments from the Nebraska thread: Between MN, IA, WI, NW, Pur & NE I could see the six of them going 3-3 against each other which makes their crossover schedules that much more important.
Six teams can't go 3-3 against each other because that is five games each (not six because you don't play yourself) but in spite of that, I agree with your underlying point. I think these teams are even enough that the B1G-W could be quite an exciting race this year. Of course, I thought that last year and Northwestern clinched it sometime in mid-September while Ohio State didn't clinch the B1G-W until the last game.
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FWIW, tiebreakers:
In a two-team tie the tiebreaker is H2H.
In a multiple-team tie, the following steps are used with the stipulation that if only two teams remain after any step (or sub-step), the H2H winner between those two wins:
1) H2H...2H
2) Divisional Record
3) Record against the next highest placed team(s) in the division, then the next, then the next, etc
4) Record against all common conference opponents
5) SOS as determined by cumulative winning percentage of non-divisional opponents
6) Record against the best team(s) in the other division (note that for this step, 1-0 is better than 0-0)
7) Overall record not including games against FCS teams
8) Random Draw
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FWIW, tiebreakers:
In a two-team tie the tiebreaker is H2H.
In a multiple-team tie, the following steps are used with the stipulation that if only two teams remain after any step (or sub-step), the H2H winner between those two wins:
1) H2H...2H
2) Divisional Record
3) Record against the next highest placed team(s) in the division, then the next, then the next, etc
4) Record against all common conference opponents
5) SOS as determined by cumulative winning percentage of non-divisional opponents
6) Record against the best team(s) in the other division (note that for this step, 1-0 is better than 0-0)
7) Overall record not including games against FCS teams
8) Random Draw
All tiebreakers which can't really in any fair way break a tie between 3 teams that finished 11-1.
It would then come to SOS based on the records of the cross-division opponents, which is I guess is one way to break the the tie when there is no real fair way to break it. Better than flipping a coin, I guess.
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Don’t know if they’ll dethrone Wisconsin, but I can definitely see Nebraska making a big jump in year 2 under Scott Frost.
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Don’t know if they’ll dethrone Wisconsin, but I can definitely see Nebraska making a big jump in year 2 under Scott Frost.
Interesting that you think its Wisconsin that needs to be dethroned and not Northwestern.
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Interesting that you think its Wisconsin that needs to be dethroned and not Northwestern.
I get that Northwestern won (by three games no less) last year, but here are UW's finishes in the five years of the B1G-W's existence:
- 5-4, tied for second place, three games back in 2018
- 9-0, first, two games ahead of second in 2017
- 7-2, first, a game ahead of second in 2016
- 6-2, tied for second place, two games back in 2015
- 7-1, first, two games ahead of second in 2014
So in five years of B1G-W play, Wisconsin has three B1G-W Championships and on two of those occasions they were two games out. The two years that Wisconsin didn't win the B1G-W they finished second both times. At least for the time being, they are team to be "dethroned" in the B1G-W.
Cumulative Conference Records in the B1G-E/B1G-W era:
| Team | 2014W | 2014L | 2015W | 2015L | 2016W | 2016L | 2017W | 2017L | 2018W | 2018L | Cum-W | Cum-L |
| Ohio State | 8 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 39 | 4 |
| Wisconsin | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 9 |
| Michigan | 3 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 29 | 14 |
| Northwestern | 3 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 29 | 14 |
| Penn State | 2 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 27 | 16 |
| Iowa | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 27 | 16 |
| Michigan State | 7 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 27 | 16 |
| Nebraska | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 23 |
| Minnesota | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 26 |
| Purdue | 1 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 31 |
| Indiana | 1 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 32 |
| Maryland | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 30 |
| Illinois | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 34 |
| Rutgers | 3 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 36 |
| Total | 56 | 56 | 56 | 56 | 63 | 63 | 63 | 63 | 63 | 63 | 301 | 301 |
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Oh I get that Wisconsin has dominated the west since it was formed, but it's good to see that the numbers back up what we were all assuming.
But by that measure, it will take more than one year for Nebraska to "dethrone" Wisconsin. Nebraska could go 9-0 this year and they still wouldn't dethrone Wisconsin as the King of the West.
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Yup, Nebraska could "dethrone" NW, but not Wisconsin, oddly enough.
Nebraska is one of the teams on my "watch list" this season as a team "of interest".
Syracuse is as well, and no doubt some more.
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Oh I get that Wisconsin has dominated the west since it was formed, but it's good to see that the numbers back up what we were all assuming.
But by that measure, it will take more than one year for Nebraska to "dethrone" Wisconsin. Nebraska could go 9-0 this year and they still wouldn't dethrone Wisconsin as the King of the West.
I just want the win over the Badgers in Lincoln this season, they can keep the "throne" for another year or two
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Purdue remains interesting, I think, and I suspect they will upend someone unexpectedly, while perhaps being 7-5 or 6-6.
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Oh I get that Wisconsin has dominated the west since it was formed, but it's good to see that the numbers back up what we were all assuming.
But by that measure, it will take more than one year for Nebraska to "dethrone" Wisconsin. Nebraska could go 9-0 this year and they still wouldn't dethrone Wisconsin as the King of the West.
It is interesting to me that most of the difference in the 2014-2018 figure is attributable to the second place (and lower) teams having at least one really bad year.
In the B1G-W:
Wisconsin (34-9) leads Northwestern (29-14) by five games. The Badgers lead Iowa (27-16) by seven games. Most of that lead is because Wisconsin's worst season was a not-that-bad 5-4 in 2018 while Northwestern went 3-5 in 2014.
In the B1G-E:
Ohio State (39-4) leads Michigan (29-14) by ten games. The Buckeyes lead Penn State and Michigan State (both 27-16) by 12 games. Most of that is because Ohio State's worst record was 7-1 in 2015 while Michigan (3-5 in 2014), Penn State (2-6 in 2014), and Michigan State (1-8 in 2016) all had MUCH worse worst seasons.
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Purdue remains interesting, I think, and I suspect they will upend someone unexpectedly, while perhaps being 7-5 or 6-6.
I'm trying to discern whether Vegas will give us an O/U on 6.5 wins or 7.5 wins.
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(https://i.gifer.com/JQX8.gif)
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It is interesting to me that most of the difference in the 2014-2018 figure is attributable to the second place (and lower) teams having at least one really bad year.
In the B1G-W:
Wisconsin (34-9) leads Northwestern (29-14) by five games. The Badgers lead Iowa (27-16) by seven games. Most of that lead is because Wisconsin's worst season was a not-that-bad 5-4 in 2018 while Northwestern went 3-5 in 2014.
In the B1G-E:
Ohio State (39-4) leads Michigan (29-14) by ten games. The Buckeyes lead Penn State and Michigan State (both 27-16) by 12 games. Most of that is because Ohio State's worst record was 7-1 in 2015 while Michigan (3-5 in 2014), Penn State (2-6 in 2014), and Michigan State (1-8 in 2016) all had MUCH worse worst seasons.
There seems to be a lot of parallels between the East and West divisions
Each has 1 team totally dominating, winning 3 out of 5 divisions, and never finishing worse than second.
Both have 2 other teams that have won the division once.
Both have a traditional power that has not been able to win a division yet.
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I do not like talking about this because it reminds me UW mostly has room to fall.
I hope the Badgers are good enough to hold that throne again.
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I do not like talking about this because it reminds me UW mostly has room to fall.
I hope the Badgers are good enough to hold that throne again.
And the thing about it is that it doesn't even require the Badgers to truly "fall".
I think the West in general is starting to become more competitive because other programs are climbing. Nebraska has long been a sleeping giant. Northwestern is a plucky upstart but has coaching and program stability. Iowa is always there ready to turn in an 11-1 year when they're expected to go 7-5. Purdue [and possibly Minnesota] have up-and-coming coaches ready to make a splash.
Illinois still sucks though.
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Also, as good as Wisconsin has been in the west, it's along way from even close to the kind of programs Ohio State and Michigan have--even if Wisconsin has been better than Michigan over the course of the last decade. Frankly, the same is true of Penn State--it is a not-so-sleeping giant in a way that Wisconsin isn't close to.
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And the thing about it is that it doesn't even require the Badgers to truly "fall".
I think the West in general is starting to become more competitive because other programs are climbing. Nebraska has long been a sleeping giant. Northwestern is a plucky upstart but has coaching and program stability. Iowa is always there ready to turn in an 11-1 year when they're expected to go 7-5. Purdue [and possibly Minnesota] have up-and-coming coaches ready to make a splash.
Illinois still sucks though.
That is the difference between the East and the West. The West only has one just awful team. Illinois is a terrible 9-34 in B1G games in the East/West era with no discernible pattern of improvement. The next worst team in the West is Purdue at 12-31 but the Boilermakers went 3-22 in the first three years and a respectable 9-9 the last two.
Three of the worst four teams (RU, UMD, and IU) are in the East. The best any of them have done in the East/West era is Maryland's 4-4 in 2014.
The West has a lot more potential contenders in a given year but probably a lower overall ceiling.
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The Why is Ohio State Here? and the Where's Ohio State? Divisions of years past were better from a competitive balance standpoint. Their official names sucked, but competitively, they were better. Could have tacked Maryland and Rutgers into those without any trouble. Also, a gerrymandered North/South thing could have worked.
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That is the difference between the East and the West. The West only has one just awful team. Illinois is a terrible 9-34 in B1G games in the East/West era with no discernible pattern of improvement. The next worst team in the West is Purdue at 12-31 but the Boilermakers went 3-22 in the first three years and a respectable 9-9 the last two.
Three of the worst four teams (RU, UMD, and IU) are in the East. The best any of them have done in the East/West era is Maryland's 4-4 in 2014.
The West has a lot more potential contenders in a given year but probably a lower overall ceiling.
The bad teams on the East are worst, but the good teams on the East are better.
Even though OSU has been stellar for the last decade or so, the dropoff over the last 5 years from OSU to UM/PSU/MSU is smaller than the dropoff from UW to UNL/NU/Iowa.
IMHO it makes OSU's continued run that much more impressive. Because they had to do it when UM/PSU/MSU were collectively at a higher level than UNL/NU/Iowa.
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And the thing about it is that it doesn't even require the Badgers to truly "fall".
I think the West in general is starting to become more competitive because other programs are climbing. Nebraska has long been a sleeping giant. Northwestern is a plucky upstart but has coaching and program stability. Iowa is always there ready to turn in an 11-1 year when they're expected to go 7-5. Purdue [and possibly Minnesota] have up-and-coming coaches ready to make a splash.
Illinois still sucks though.
They’ll fall in the wins sense. And I’ve long learned in CFB, judging by quality is nice, but wins salve all.
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The Why is Ohio State Here? and the Where's Ohio State? Divisions of years past were better from a competitive balance standpoint. Their official names sucked, but competitively, they were better. Could have tacked Maryland and Rutgers into those without any trouble. Also, a gerrymandered North/South thing could have worked.
Splitting OSU and Michigan way by and large dumb. I think you need Michigan with OSU and MSU. Probably need Wisconsin with Iowa and Minnesota. Keep those and the in-state Illinois rivalry and you’re in good shape.
Moving PSU over would probably be the logical move, but that would have fallout.
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The West has a lot more potential contenders in a given year but probably a lower overall ceiling.
it's time to raise the lower overall ceiling
similar to the SEC East/West thing
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Splitting OSU and Michigan way by and large dumb. I think you need Michigan with OSU and MSU. Probably need Wisconsin with Iowa and Minnesota. Keep those and the in-state Illinois rivalry and you’re in good shape.
Moving PSU over would probably be the logical move, but that would have fallout.
PSU needs to stay with Rutgers and Maryland
This may not be perfect, but...
I don't see a better way to divide the conference
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SEC East used to dominate. The XII North used to dominate. Things can change.
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and they will
I have faith
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The Why is Ohio State Here? and the Where's Ohio State? Divisions of years past were better from a competitive balance standpoint. Their official names sucked, but competitively, they were better. Could have tacked Maryland and Rutgers into those without any trouble. Also, a gerrymandered North/South thing could have worked.
I believe you are mixing up a couple things.
First, it was the "Where is Wisconsin?" and the "Why is Wisconsin here?" divisions. It was Wisconsin that was a bad fit in the Leaders Division.
Second, any attempts to produce balanced divisions is always skewed by Ohio State. Whatever division Ohio State is put in, ends up being the top division. Once you get past OSU, the divisions have been fairly competitive. In the conference, there is not a Big 2, or Big 4. There really is only a Big 1.
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I believe you are mixing up a couple things.
First, it was the "Where is Wisconsin?" and the "Why is Wisconsin here?" divisions. It was Wisconsin that was a bad fit in the Leaders Division.
Second, any attempts to produce balanced divisions is always skewed by Ohio State. Whatever division Ohio State is put in, ends up being the top division. Once you get past OSU, the divisions have been fairly competitive. In the conference, there is not a Big 2, or Big 4. There really is only a Big 1.
^^^ We have a winner. Lock the thread.
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I''m glad the SEC/ACC doesn't have a team as dominant as Ohio State is in the B1G and has parity and competition.
Um, wut?
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I admit that Wisconsin has had a great run for a long time. But in reality, Just look to last couple years and see what is coming back.
Nebraska is getting a lot of love for finishing the year strong and return a good caliber QB, Iowa's coaching staffs been together forever, wisconsin has history, Northwestern is the defending champ
To be honest I dont look up every team and see what they lost and have coming back but the question should be
can Wisconsin bounce back from a disappointing year. Can Nebraska keep improving and not have a 2nd year dip, Can Iowa continue to pound the ground, Can Pat in Northwestern start the year like he seems to finish? Is Fleck for real and continue his roll. Will Purdue stop killing themselves with undisciplined play?
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^^^ We have a winner. Lock the thread.
Probably right.
And yeah, my memory isn't great about who was misplaced...
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My opinion is that balance of power between conference divisions is over rated and not important
what's the worst that happens if Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan St, and Penn St. are all VERY good, the West is very weak with the Badgers being the best of the bunch and go 5-4 in conference and win the division?
Are we concerned that a huge upset could happen in the CCG? So what?
Is it that we don't want all the top teams in one division because they beat themselves up and all end with 2 losses and potentially miss the 4-team playoff?
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My opinion is that balance of power between conference divisions is over rated and not important
what's the worst that happens if Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan St, and Penn St. are all VERY good, the West is very weak with the Badgers being the best of the bunch and go 5-4 in conference and win the division?
Are we concerned that a huge upset could happen in the CCG? So what?
Is it that we don't want all the top teams in one division because they beat themselves up and all end with 2 losses and potentially miss the 4-team playoff?
IMHO, competitive balance is preferred but not necessarily the end-all-be-all. There are a few problems with unbalanced divisions:
First, in the scenario you laid out where a mediocre Wisconsin wins the West at 5-4 while two out of three or three out of four elite teams from the East miss the CG the potential problem is that a CG upset likely results in no CFP representation. If we instead had two elite teams in the CG then we would be almost guaranteed to get one of them into the CFP.
Second, with the current setup the B1G-E teams that aren't as good have almost zero chance of ever winning the division. The Buckeyes, Wolverines, Nittany Lions, and Spartans each will have their off years but the chances of all of them having an off year in the same year are near zero which leaves Indiana, Maryland, and Rutgers in a tough spot.
One problem, of course, is that things change. Most of us can remember when the B12-N was dominating the B12 with high-end Nebraska and KSU teams while OU and UT were down. We can also remember when the SEC-E was dominating the SEC with high-end UF and UT teams while Bama and LSU were down.
I actually am intrigued by the B12's idea of eliminating divisions and just having the top two teams play. I think that is probably the best way to improve a league's chances of putting a team in the CFP because it guarantees that one of the top teams in the league will get a quality win on the last day.
One interesting thing is that there haven't really been any major CG upsets in the CFP era:
2018:
- #11 UW over #17 Utah
- #1 Bama over #4 UGA
- #2 Clemson over nr Pitt
- #5 OU over #14 UT
- #6 tOSU over #21 NU
2017:
- #10 USC over #12 Stanford
- #1 Clemson over #7 Miami
- #6 UGA over #2 Auburn (a sort-of upset but not a big one)
- #3 OU over #11 TCU
- #8 tOSU over #4 UW (another sort-of upset but again not a big one and I'm pretty sure tOSU was technically favored)
2016:
- #4 UW over #8 Colorado
- #1 Bama over #15 UF
- #3 Clemson over #23 VaTech
- #7 PSU over #6 UW (another sort-of upset)
2015:
- #1 Clemson over #10 UNC
- #2 Bama over #18 UF
- #5 MSU over #4 Iowa (another sort-of upset)
- #7 Stanford over #20 USC
2014:
- #2 Oregon over #7 Arizona
- #1 Bama over #16 Mizzou
- #4 FSU over #11 GaTech
- #5 tOSU over #13 UW (technically this was an upset)
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There is somewhere around a 1 chance in 5 that a somewhat decent team upsets a very good team, in the CG or otherwise, though your data suggests in a CG the odds are not that high (perhaps both teams are clearly motivated). It can happen that a #2 team gets knocked out by a #15 team of course, it's a risk to some degree.
I like the divisions personally, but I prefer 12 team conferences. Winning your division is a something anyway, even if that's all you do, especially for a program not normally competitive at that level. It's not much for an Ohio State to win the division and then lose the CG, but it would be for NW.
I like that almost half the teams win their final game if they make a bowl.
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There is somewhere around a 1 chance in 5 that a somewhat decent team upsets a very good team, in the CG or otherwise, though your data suggests in a CG the odds are not that high (perhaps both teams are clearly motivated). It can happen that a #2 team gets knocked out by a #15 team of course, it's a risk to some degree.
I like the divisions personally, but I prefer 12 team conferences. Winning your division is a something anyway, even if that's all you do, especially for a program not normally competitive at that level. It's not much for an Ohio State to win the division and then lose the CG, but it would be for NW.
I like that almost half the teams win their final game if they make a bowl.
Defining "upset" as a win by a lower ranked team, there have been four upsets in 22* P5 CG's since the CFP was implemented:
- #6 UGA over #2 Auburn in the 2017 SECCG
- #8 tOSU over #4 UW in the 2017 B1GCG
- #7 PSU over #6 UW in the 2016 B1GCG
- #5 MSU over #4 Iowa in the 2015 B1GCG
That roughly equals the 1-in-5 that you suggested above but I think you were talking about a "major" upset and none of these were. Two involved a team beating the team immediately ahead of them in the rankings and the other two were only four spot gaps.
Furthermore, the only one of these that had an impact beyond the conference in which it occurred was Ohio State's "upset" of Wisconsin in the 2017 B1GCG. Wisconsin's loss knocked them out of the top-4 but Ohio State's win didn't get them into the top-4 so that effectively made room for Bama to make the playoff.
Impact of the other three upsets:
- In 2017 #6 UGA knocked off #2 Auburn in the SECCG and effectively "stole" Auburn's CFP spot.
- In 2015 #5 MSU knocked off #4 Iowa in the B1GCG and effectively "stole" Iowa's CFP spot.
- In 2016 #7 PSU knocked off #6 UW in the B1GCG and neither team made the CFP. Neither team would have made the CFP regardless of the CG outcome.
*There have been 22 rather than 25 P5 CG's in the past five years because the B12 didn't have one for the first three years (2014-2016).
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IMHO, competitive balance is preferred but not necessarily the end-all-be-all. There are a few problems with unbalanced divisions:
Second, with the current setup the B1G-E teams that aren't as good have almost zero chance of ever winning the division. The Buckeyes, Wolverines, Nittany Lions, and Spartans each will have their off years but the chances of all of them having an off year in the same year are near zero which leaves Indiana, Maryland, and Rutgers in a tough spot.
Indiana, Maryland, and Rutgers have been in a tough spot for decades and it didn't come from being in a stronger division
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Yeah, my "1 in 5" relates to a spread of about 10 points or so, meaning a #15 team upsetting a #3 team, for example.
Most think some upsets happen because the favored team is somewhat unmotivated that day, going through motions, but in a CG that seems as if it would be a diminished factor, versus say Bama on a roll 10-0 going into Starkville to play a 7-3 team.
So, my 1 in 5 might be more like 1 in 8, or more, hard to say.
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Yeah, my "1 in 5" relates to a spread of about 10 points or so, meaning a #15 team upsetting a #3 team, for example.
Most think some upsets happen because the favored team is somewhat unmotivated that day, going through motions, but in a CG that seems as if it would be a diminished factor, versus say Bama on a roll 10-0 going into Starkville to play a 7-3 team.
So, my 1 in 5 might be more like 1 in 8, or more, hard to say.
My point in this discussion is that we have had an unusual lack of major and impactful CG upsets in the CFP era and I believe that will not continue indefinitely. I would break the 22 CG's in the CFP era into three blocks as follows:
Group #1, games in which the two teams were ranked close enough together such that the lower ranked team winning is hardly an upset at all:
| Year | Conference | Winner rank | Loser Rank | Rank Gap | Winner | Loser |
| 2017 | SEC | 6 | 2 | -4 | Georgia | Auburn |
| 2017 | B1G | 8 | 4 | -4 | Ohio State | Wisconsin |
| 2016 | B1G | 7 | 6 | -1 | Penn State | Wisconsin |
| 2015 | B1G | 5 | 4 | -1 | Michigan State | Iowa |
| 2017 | PAC | 10 | 12 | 2 | USC | Stanford |
| 2018 | SEC | 1 | 4 | 3 | Bama | Georgia |
| 2016 | PAC | 4 | 8 | 4 | Washington | Colorado |
These are games in which the participants were ranked within four spots of each other. As you can see, the higher ranked teams are 3-4 in these seven games but the "upsets" really weren't surprising as the games were basically among equals.
The next group are games in which an upset would be mildly surprising:
| Year | Conference | Winner rank | Loser Rank | Rank Gap | Winner | Loser |
| 2014 | PAC | 2 | 7 | 5 | Oregon | Arizona |
| 2018 | PAC | 11 | 17 | 6 | Washington | Utah |
| 2017 | ACC | 1 | 7 | 6 | Clemson | Miami |
| 2014 | ACC | 4 | 11 | 7 | Florida State | GaTech |
| 2017 | B12 | 3 | 11 | 8 | Oklahoma | TCU |
| 2014 | B1G | 5 | 13 | 8 | Ohio State | Wisconsin |
| 2018 | B12 | 5 | 14 | 9 | Oklahoma | Texas |
| 2015 | ACC | 1 | 10 | 9 | Clemson | North Carolina |
These are games in which the participants were ranked 5-9 spots apart. As you can see, the higher ranked teams are 8-0 in these games. I think that is amazing. The lower ranked teams in these games are very good and aught to be pulling off the upset I would imagine at least once every four or five attempts.
Finally we have the games in which an upset would be shocking:
| Year | Conference | Winner rank | Loser Rank | Rank Gap | Winner | Loser |
| 2015 | PAC | 7 | 20 | 13 | Stanford | USC |
| 2016 | SEC | 1 | 15 | 14 | Bama | Florida |
| 2018 | B1G | 6 | 21 | 15 | Ohio State | Northwestern |
| 2014 | SEC | 1 | 16 | 15 | Bama | Mizzou |
| 2015 | SEC | 2 | 18 | 16 | Bama | Florida |
| 2016 | ACC | 3 | 23 | 20 | Clemson | VaTech |
| 2018 | ACC | 2 | nr | #VALUE! | Clemson | Pittsburgh |
These are games in which the higher ranked team is at least 10 spots higher than the underdog. As you can see, the higher ranked teams are 7-0 in these games. This might fall into the 1-in-8 probability that you suggested which means that we are about due.
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18-4 is amazing and will not continue
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Second, any attempts to produce balanced divisions is always skewed by Ohio State. Whatever division Ohio State is put in, ends up being the top division. Once you get past OSU, the divisions have been fairly competitive. In the conference, there is not a Big 2, or Big 4. There really is only a Big 1.
tOSU has lost quite a bit to the Sunday League the last 2 seasons,not sure of others additions/subtractions.Quite a bit of transitions in the coaching ranks also.So ya know the rest of the conference might want to find it in their hearts to ease up a little as these forboding clouds appear on the horizon
(https://i.imgur.com/h3sXHJ2.png)
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18-4 is amazing and will not continue
Exactly, I think we are due for a haywire year where we have 2+ major CG upsets that throw the CFP selections into chaos.
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18-4 is amazing and will not continue
That's just crazy talk
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Exactly, I think we are due for a haywire year where we have 2+ major CG upsets that throw the CFP selections into chaos.
and then the knee jerk reactions that are sure to follow...........
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That's just crazy talk
I'm a crazy MFer
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So you really do ride with the HPS,I knew it 94 was right fookin' bugeaters
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I showed up in December of 97, the HPS was in full throat then I started. They really didn't need my help.
I may have rode on the wagon a for a few short trips, but I was the good level headed Husker.
Obviously...........
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Oh I get that Wisconsin has dominated the west since it was formed, but it's good to see that the numbers back up what we were all assuming.
But by that measure, it will take more than one year for Nebraska to "dethrone" Wisconsin. Nebraska could go 9-0 this year and they still wouldn't dethrone Wisconsin as the King of the West.
Using a 5 year rolling calculations Nebraska gains 2 games on Wisconsin by default. (Leaving them 12 games behind the Badgers.) so yes if the Huskers can go 9-0 and Wisconsin goes 0-9 they can't "catch them" in one year.
There is no way Wisconsin goes 0-9. Even if Nebraska wins the West 2 years running they will still be behind Wisconsin. I would assert Nebraska doesn't catch Wisconsin until the 6 game disparity in 2017 comes off.