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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ELA on October 05, 2017, 10:02:26 AM
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#4 Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0, 5-0) at Northwestern Wildcats (0-1, 2-2)
NOON - Evanston, IL - ABC
Wisconsin gave Northwestern every opportunity to make a statement in the first half last week with horrific ball security, and when the Wildcats only took a marginal lead into the lockers, you knew they were toast. The Hoosiers sold out to stop Saquon Barkley, and it largely worked, holding him to only 56 yards on 20 carries, his worst ypc effort since 14 yards on 12 carries against Michigan State last year. That's what you have to do, and Northwestern will try as well. What the Wildcats can't do is give up 2 special teams touchdowns, and lose the turnover battle 4-1. While Trace McSorley had his biggest output of the season, with 315 yards on 36 attempts, it was also his lowest QBR of the season, and actually his second straight game below 50. It was also only the second time in the last 15 games he was held to negative yards rushing. Barkley is a legitimate Heisman contender, but both his Heisman candidacy and Penn State's playoff hopes hinge and McSorley playing more consistent and forcing teams out of the defense Indiana played on Saturday. The Hoosiers had arguably the worst run defense in the conference, and Northwestern is only marginally better. Penn State has had some success with a bend, but don't break defense, that leads the conference in scoring defense, while ranking 5th in total defense. After seeing how miserably the Northwestern offensive line dealt with Wisconsin's blitz packages last weekend though, Brent Pry may want to step up his aggression. Even if he's not able to bring Thorson down as often as Wisconsin did, he's got a ball hawking back four that leads the conference with 7 interceptions, that would love some ill advised throws. Only Tanner Lee and Kyle Bolin have thrown more picks among Big Ten starters, so Thorson may have to eat the ball a lot like he did last weekend.
PENN STATE 38, NORTHWESTERN 16
Illinois Fighting Illini (0-1, 2-2) at Iowa Hawkeyes (0-2, 3-2)
NOON - Iowa City, IA - BTN
It took Iowa's defense a quarter to wake up, and the offense never did, making two critical turnovers that cost Iowa any shot at a comeback bid in East Lansing last weekend. The Hawkeyes fell behind 14-0 in the first quarter, and were outgained 121-5. From that point on though, they held Michigan State out of the end zone, but two turnovers, both in Spartan territory, and the fact that they couldn't force any from a Michigan State team that had been very loose with the ball did them in. Illinois put to rest any notion that their ceiling was any higher than 13th with a wholly lackluster effort in a Friday night home game against previously struggling Nebraska. Lovie Smith announced they are switching up and going with Jeff Georgia Jr. at quarterback, but this offense is such a mess right now, I don't think it matters. I think the thought was that there were so many holes in the offense, that they were willing to sacrifice some throwing to have Crouch's legs in the offense, but the passing game is beyond bad. Put it this way, half the conference is averaging more rushing yards per game than Illinois is passing yards. To be honest I don't know why it took this long to go to George. I thought it should have been him from the opener, and when he got in against South Florida, he actually looked ok. The problem with him has always been accuracy, but he can make all the throws. In four games last year, he only completed 40% of his passes, and in his final shot he was 5-16 with 4 picks against Wisconsin. So, let's not get too excited yet. After a couple of bad breaks, Iowa just needs to get back on course, and there's little better for that than an Illinois team that looks so apathetic that Lovie Smith might be out after two years at a school that doesn't exactly have the highest expectations to begin with. The Illini have the worst run defense in the Big Ten, but until Nathan Stanley starts looking like the guy we saw in Ames, it might not matter. The offense is 100% Akrum Wadley right now, and Penn State and Michigan State both sold out that way effectively. The question is whether it matters with Illinois. The Spartans and Nittany Lions are 3rd and 4th in the conference in run defense respectively. Illinois is 14th.
IOWA 31, ILLINOIS 12
Minnesota Golden Gophers (0-1, 3-1) at Purdue Boilermakers (0-1, 2-2)
3:30 - West Lafayette, IN - espn2
Just when I was ready to buy into both of these teams, they both go and lay an egg. Minnesota loses at home to a Maryland team using its third string quarterback, making his first career start. Purdue's offense looked absolutely dreadful against Michigan. The difference is the Boilermakers have had a week to regroup, while Minnesota has not. For all of the good vibes already for both coaches in Year 1, the loser of this game has to start feeling a little wary of their bowl chances. This one may come down to how often Minnesota can strike Purdue on big pass plays. The Gophers don't want to pass. They do it less than any team in the conference, but when they do, it works. Their 8.9 ypa trails only Ohio State and Wisconsin among Big Ten teams, and their 15.0 ypc is best in the conference. Purdue's defense is the exact opposite, they've been surrending big plays through the air all season, ranking 13th in the conference in pass defense, allowing a league worst 7.6 ypa. Purdue has to win 1st down on defense, and force Minnesota into passing down, because when Minnesota passes because they have to, they struggle. When they pass when they want to, which isn't often, they are among the best, and will be attacking Purdue's biggest weakness. Combine that with Purdue's anemic pass rush, against Minnesota's offensive line, which has been sneaky good at pass blocking, and those big plays will be there. At first glance, after seeing Minnesota last week, this really looks like a game Purdue should win, but I think the things Minnesota does well, line up better with the things Purdue isn't equipped to stop, really even than Michigan does. Michigan just overwhelmed Purdue with depth over 60 minutes. Minnesota can't do that, but they can exploit Purdue. Purdue can slow the Gopher running attack, and if the Minnesota play action isn't there, they will struggle to move the ball. I don't see the Gophers moving up and down the field, but I think they'll hit enough splash plays to pull out the much needed road win.
MINNESOTA 26, PURDUE 24
Charleston Southern Buccaneers (2-2) at Indiana Hoosiers (0-2, 2-2)
3:30 - Bloomington, IN - BTN
INDIANA 45, CHARLESTON SOUTHERN 16
Maryland Terrapins (1-0, 3-1) at #10 Ohio State (2-0, 4-1)
4:00 - Columbus, OH - FOX
I know Maryland is down to their third quarterback, but they looked pretty good with him starting last week. I know Ohio State has looked better the last couple weeks, but they haven't played a team with a pulse since Oklahoma. The Buckeyes have the talent to pull out a curb stomping at almost any point, but I truly fail to see how all of this adds up to Ohio State being 30.5 point favorites. Maryland's offense relies on the splash plays, particularly in the running game. Central Florida prevented Ty Johnson from getting loose, and the Terps got zero production. Last week Maryland had five different players tally a play of over 20 yards, and had one such play on every single one of their four touchdown drives. Ohio State certainly has issues in the back seven, but nobody will ever accuse any Ohio State team of a lack of athleticism, particularly compared to Maryland. So the question is whether Maryland can hit those plays, even when they show themselves. Rather than helping provide clarity as to the Ohio State running back situation, last week just added more of a mess, as Demario McCall, who had no carried on the year, had 11 carries and one reception, for 138 total yards, just adding to a full stable of backs. Mix all of those backs in with Barrett's legs, and despite their struggles to hit on the deep ball, Ohio State will eventually overwhelm Maryland with depth. This is a solid run defense in Maryland, totally shutting down the Gophers last week, and Texas didn't get to the century mark on the ground either. However, for now, it seems like the mobile quarterbacks, and the read option looks are not their forte. McKenzie Milton, Central Florida's quarterback, ran for 94 yards on them, and nine total ball carriers combined for 250 rushing yards on 6.4 ypc in the Knights' blowout win. In fairness, they picked up 99 of those yards on two plays, but the jury is still very out on how Maryland's defense will fare against the type of running game Ohio State brings. But 30.5? I don't see that at all.
OHIO STATE 38, MARYLAND 23
#9 Wisconsin Badgers (1-0, 4-0) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-0, 3-2)
8:00 - Lincoln, NE - BTN
Wisconsin has made a habit of getting off to sluggish starts, and then really turning it on. In a hostile atmosphere like Lincoln at night, that might not work out as well. Granted, considering Northern Illinois already came into this building and won, maybe it's living more of reputation than actuality this year. The Huskers have won two in a row, albeit against easily the two worst Big Ten teams, and probably two of the five worst Power 5 teams (along with Kansas, Oregon State and Missouri). But there's no way Nebraska was as bad as they looked prior to that, so as unimpressive as those two wins are, and its all uphill from here, maybe a little confidence goes a long way. Last week it wasn't just a win over Illinois, it was a dominating win. The Blackshirts were smothering on defense, and Tanner Lee looked like the guy that Nebraska fans were hopeful they were getting. Not the guy coming off 9 interceptions over the previous three games. Whole different animal now. Bucky's front seven looked just plain nasty last week, unblockable, as we've discussed plenty on here. Northwestern is now giving up the most sacks per game in the Big Ten...because they gave up over half of their season average last week. The offense can't continue to put the defense in tough spots though, the sloppy play and poor ball control out of the gates, which has haunted Wisconsin a couple times, needs to end. That goes for Nebraska as well. The offense is going to be effective, but can it be efficient? Wisconsin leads the conference with 7 interceptions forced. Nebraska is last in the conference with 9 interceptions thrown. Uh oh. But what Nebraska can, and must do, is keep the Badgers behind the sticks. Wisconsin is 2nd in the Big Ten in rushing, but Nebraska is 4th in run defense, and nobody besides Oregon has been able to run on them. Alex Hornibrook is 2nd in completion percentage at 67%, but mostly because he hasn't had to throw a ton, and when he does it's short, or well timed play action. The Badgers have the best 3rd down offense in the Big Ten, but how many of those are obvious passing downs?
WISCONSIN 33, NEBRASKA 21
***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***
Michigan State Spartans (1-0, 3-1) at #7 Michigan Wolverines (1-0, 4-0)
7:30 - Ann Arbor, MI - ABC
Thanks to the increased power of the television executives, we now have what both schools have been fighting against, ever since Big Ten night games became a thing, a Paul Bunyan night game. The crazy trajectories of these programs has made this a top 5 MSU against a sub .500 UM in 2014; a battle of two top 15 teams in 2015; and a top 5 UM against a sub .500 MSU in 2016. It seems like Michigan is a bit worse than a year ago, and Michigan State is somewhat better. How much better? You'd think this would go a long way toward telling us, but perhaps not. The Spartans, in all forms, have had a way of getting up for this game. Even last year in what should have been a romp, was not. Michigan fans' frustration with Wilton Speight had been well documented. When he was knocked out in the Purdue game, and John O'Korn came in and jump started the offense, they wondered if an injury to their starting quarterback may have saved their season. That remains to be seen. He wouldn't be the first injury replacement to look really good until a team has time to prepare for him. Last year Speight was the best player on Michigan's offense in the win, with the Spartans shutting down the run, save for a couple Eddie McDoom jet sweeps. That was peak Speight, in the middle of three straight games with an Opponent Adjusted QBR over 93. The problem is that in the six games since his best is 67, and that was the only game he was over 50 (average). O'Korn showed good accuracy against Purdue, working on probably a limited playbook. The bye week was well times for him though, and now he's had two weeks to prepare. It's doubtful that same gameplan can work again. No matter who the personnel is, Mark Dantonio's defense is going to stack the line, and be aggressive. The teams that can offer protection, and beat them over the top, or avoid the pressure and exploit broken plays are the ones who beat them. We saw Iowa try a conservative approach last week, and they got nothing. I'm not convinced Michigan's offense is any better than Iowa's, so I think a similar plan will go similarly. This could be an old fashioned Big Ten game with 30-45 minutes spent with each team establishing themselves. Both defenses are good, and are built from the front back. Not ideal for what Dantonio wants to do, if you have the weapons to stretch it, as Notre Dame did. Michigan's line has not looked good, so the question is how much pressure Michigan State can get with four. Michigan State's offensive line has been awful up the middle, particularly in run blocking, but the pass blocking, particularly on the edge, has been solid. But they haven't faced anything like this Michigan front four. I think Michigan hits enough big plays, and eventually too many three and outs wear down the Spartan defense, and there's no way they avoid their turnover turmoil a second straight week.
MICHIGAN 28, MICHIGAN STATE 13
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