CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: OrangeAfroMan on May 13, 2019, 10:13:08 AM
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Just researching some things, found these to stand out. Curious what people think.
My thinking on what makes each especially hard:
For FSU, you basically had to win every bowl game during the run, or like 95% of them.
For the FL programs, you reply on other programs to contribute, all within one state...and they didn't exactly take turns being good.
For the SEC one, it included 4 different programs, luck in the voting, etc...a perfect storm type of thing.
For Alabama, you need your coach to stay put and to fight complacency, which is extremely difficult - many say staying on top is harder than getting to the top.
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14 top 5's
how many has Bama run off?
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Five...they finished 7th in 2013 after the kick-6 and being upset by OU in the Sugar Bowl after being #1 all season.
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only 10 more to go
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Bama.
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To do the top 5 thing now, you'd have to basically get in the playoff every year and win every semifinal or be the first team left out and never lose your bowl. Ain't happening.
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To do the top 5 thing now, you'd have to basically get in the playoff every year and win every semifinal or be the first team left out and never lose your bowl. Ain't happening.
It is hard, no doubt, but I don't think it is quite THAT hard. Without looking it up, I think that most of the CFP semi-final losers have stayed top-5.
Also, if you miss the CFP, you don't necessarily have to be the first team out, you usually have to be the first team out that wins a bowl.
Still, I think FSU's run of top-5 finishes is the most impressive in this group.
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I picked FSU's run as being the most impressive. Not to say the others aren't, but when the same team(s) hoard massive amounts of talent, and (usually) coupled with elite coaching, championships are much easier to obtain. FSU's run of course had both, but it required its fair share of luck too.
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I picked the SEC run. Having four national championship caliber programs in the same conference that don't knock each other out was rather something.
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I think Florida State by a hair over the SEC run. I mean finishing #6 is still a damn good season, so to go that long without even having a single season of anything less than elite is amazing.
The SEC thing I think is tougher to replicate, but I think there is a randomness factor to it that makes it less "impressive." So if the question was which is least likely to be repeated, I'd probably say that, due to the confluence of factors required, but I think the FSU run is more impressive.
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I picked Bama's 5 NCs in 9 years. No one else has done it. Ever. Even without scholly requirements, even when cheating....it's other-worldly.
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I picked Bama's 5 NCs in 9 years. No one else has done it. Ever. Even without scholly requirements, even when cheating....it's other-worldly.
For me, it was close between Bama's five NC's in nine years and FSU's 14 straight top-5 finishes. I went with FSU's top-5's because going that long without anything even resembling an off year is awfully tough. I realize that to goal is to win the NC but I think that viewing the sport as a dichotomy in which each team either:
- succeeds meaning that they win the NC, or
- fails meaning that they do not
is mistaken because it treats EXTREMELY good seasons (#2, #3, etc) as being equivalent to EXTREMELY bad season (sub .500). A fluke play here or an off day there can cost a team a NC and conversely a fluke play that goes your way or an off day by an opponent can move a top-5 quality team up to the NC. Getting to that top-5 level every single year for nearly a decade and a half is, to me, more impressive.
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FSU was the only football school in the ACC at the time. It's a mystery how they even dropped the two Conference games over that time span that they did, particularly since neither were to Clemson. Their losses to Miami and/or Florida weren't enough to knock them out of the Top 5, and no one in the ACC was up to the task. Those schools weren't even prioritizing the same sport.
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Really they were just West Virginia in reverse.
The Mountaineers went from good to great after the ACC raided the Big East, and took all of their competition.
Simultaneously FSU went from great to good, once there were a few more FB schools in the mix.
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Part of it for me was that you cannot name (nor I) the previous record for consecutive top 5 finishes. It's an impressive record, but what record did it beat?
Pretty much everyone knows Miami had 4 NCs in 9 years ('83-'91), and Bama has surpassed that.
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I went with Bama's NCs, but I thought hard about FSU. In the end, I think it was tougher for Bama to remain as good as it is--and win the game that mattered so many times, than it was for FSU to dominate its conference. But that isn't saying that what FSU did wasn't exceptional. It was.
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Bama's NCs.
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Fsu run. Their bowl run during this time was pretty impressive and obviously needed to happen to stay Top 5.
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The Bama NCs is a strong one, but for some reason I’m getting hung up on the system part.
Basically, I wonder if some older teams win near that rate with a system that creates more postseason head-to-heads. I suppose the counter is rules are rules and whatnot. But it’s weird to look back and wonder what titles don’t exist pre-BCS (Also random to consider the Spurrier national title is a weird bowl aliance failure byproduct).
Granted, Bama might’ve lost a title or two on that account.
With FSU, they went 10-2 or better, only lost bowls when ranked in the top 2 and I don’t think ever paired a bowl and UF loss.
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Back in the past, a team MIGHT end the year with a rival, then a bowl, and that's it. 2 tough games. All things even, a NC contender had a 25% chance at remaining undefeated and probably winning the NC, from that point.
But now - rival, CCG, Semis, CFP Final CG.......you've halved the chances for any one particular team of winning the NC, after they've won all but their last regular season game. So no matter how strong an OSU or Bama is, its mathematical chances have decreased with the playoff, just as they decreased with the advent of the CCG in '92.
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And don't forget, some squirrely stuff happened back in the day. Spurrier's NC route wasn't a rarity. Hell, in '83, Miami jumped from 5th to the NC when #3 Auburn won its bowl game! ND got every possible push from the voters in the 70s and Penn St was sepressed a number of times, even after cementing itself as an elite program.
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It's akin to people looking around at society today and saying how bad it is, how it's fractured and scary and unknown and being pessimistic, when it's also objectively the best time to be alive ever in the history of humanity. No, the playoff system isn't perfect, but it's the most inclusive, most settle-it-on-the-field answer college football has ever had.
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OAM
I think the first part might be less true. Yes, the road is harder, but in say 2012, there’s less a chance that ND team gets a softer bowl and Bama gets shut out. Basically, there’s less chance a random undefeated pops up and denies you. Of course, with 2013 rules, they win in 2014, so it’s all wonky.
Completely agree on the second part.
Lastly, I think the playoff system is good, better than what we had. It’s in part that way becuase it tamps down randomness and allows for good teams to have more chances. Bama is a good team and made good, but it also had (and lost) chances previous teams had. To a degree, I think the SEC streak slightly benefitted in that way too. But in the end, all of it is still very impressive.
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FSU was the only football school in the ACC at the time. It's a mystery how they even dropped the two Conference games over that time span that they did, particularly since neither were to Clemson. Their losses to Miami and/or Florida weren't enough to knock them out of the Top 5, and no one in the ACC was up to the task. Those schools weren't even prioritizing the same sport.
I get what you are saying and the ACC was obviously a weak football conference aside from FSU during that run but those Seminoles did very well against high end opponents as well. Over that 1987-2000 stretch they were:
- 11-4-1 against the Gators (including a lot of VERY good Gator teams)
- 7-7 against Miami
- 10-1 against Clemson
- 8-1 each against UVA and NCST
- 9-0 each against Maryland, Dook, GaTech, Wake, and UNC
- 6-0 against Tulane
- 5-0 against VaTech
- 4-0 each against USCe and UNL
- 3-1 each against USM and Auburn
- 3-0 each against LSU, Memphis, Louisville, and ECU
- 2-1 against Notre Dame
- 2-0 each against aTm, LaTech, MSU, Cuse, GaSo, USC, and BYU
- 1-0 each against MTSU, Furman, Cincy, Kansas, UCF, TxTech, Michigan, WMU, PSU, and tOSU
- 0-1 each against TN and OU
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i voted fsu top 5.
bama 5 in 9 is ridiculous though. but i think had fsu had the bcs and/or playoffs they might have close to 5/9 as well. but we know bama's not going to make the 14 year top 5 run.
bama's run as it stands:
08 - 6th both polls (re-emergence, lost to uf in seccg, to utah in sugar)
09 - 1st (undefeated)
10 - 10th/11th (3 loss injury plagued season, demolished msu in bowl)
11 - 1st (lsu rematch)
12 - 1st (nd blowout)
13 - 7th/8th (kick6, ou sugar loss)
14 - 4th (1st playoff, osu "upset")
15 - 1st (clemson 1.0)
16 - 2nd (clemson 2.0 the revenge)
17 - 1st (clemson 3.0, this time in quaters)
18 - 2nd (clemson 4.0, revenging the revenge of the first revenge)
average rank of 3rd (3.45) over 11 years (using worst rankings each year). fsu was 3.14 over 14. i don't know why this matters i was just curious.
maybe more impressive to me for bama is that they are 2 games (and 1 play) away from playing for 10 of the last 11 titles. in 2008, they had the lead in the 4th qtr before tebow pulled uf on top. and in 2013 they lead and controlled the kick6 game and had a chance to win at last second before the most unlikely of plays happen. (9/11 if you don't consider being in playoff playing for title, even then, there was a last second hail mary to tie the game with osu.)
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Yeah, for me it's about more than just Alabama's #1 finishes over the stretch. It takes luck to finish #1 and Alabama has certainly had its share.
Rather I find the consistent extremely high level of play even more impressive, honestly.
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- 11-4-1 against the Gators (including a lot of VERY good Gator teams)
- 7-7 against Miami
- 5-0 against VaTech
- 4-0 against UNL
- 3-1 against Auburn
- 3-0 against LSU
- 2-1 against Notre Dame
- 2-0 eac against aTm, MSU, USC, and BYU
- 1-0 each against Michigan, PSU, and tOSU
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maybe more impressive to me for bama is that they are 2 games (and 1 play) away from playing for 10 of the last 11 titles. in 2008, they had the lead in the 4th qtr before tebow pulled uf on top. and in 2013 they lead and controlled the kick6 game and had a chance to win at last second before the most unlikely of plays happen. (9/11 if you don't consider being in playoff playing for title, even then, there was a last second hail mary to tie the game with osu.)
1 final thing about that - the 1 odd year out, might be the most talented team.
julio jones
mark ingram
james carpenter
chance warmack
barrett jones
dj fluker
marcel dareus
donta hightower
courtney upshaw
mark barron
dre kirkpatrick
eddie lacy (backup)
aj mccarron (backup)
cj mosley (backup)
several others that also had nfl careers, but these are most notable i think.
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...ND got every possible push from the voters in the 70s...
How do you figure? Unbeaten #3 ND beat unbeaten #1 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl in 1973 = NC. ND jumped #2 Oklahoma, which didn't play in a bowl.
In 1977, a host of major teams finished with one loss. #5 Notre Dame beat #1 Texas (previously unbeaten) in the Cotton Bowl...38-10. #2 Oklahoma got smoked by #6 Arkansas in the Orange Bowl. #4 Michigan lost to #13 Washington in the Rose Bowl. #3 Alabama beat up #9 Ohio State in the Sugar. At least this one takes some analysis: who was more deserving, Alabama or ND, both of whom won their bowl games. They had three common opponents. They both destroyed Miami (Bama 36-0 at home, and ND 48-10 at Miami); Alabama beat USC by 1 in LA, ND beat USC by 30 in South Bend; Alabama beat Ole Miss by 21 at home, ND lost to Ole Miss by 7 away. ND lost to Ole Miss in week 2, the same week Alabama lost at eventual #12 Nebraska (by seven). ND beat four teams that finished in the top 20: #4 Texas (neutral by 28), #8 Pittsburgh (away by 10), #13 USC (home by 30), and #19 Clemson (away, by four). Alabama beat #11 Ohio State (neutral by 29) and #13 USC (away by 1), but had the "better loss." So is this a close-ish call? Sure, but ND had the better wins, the better strength of schedule, and destroyed the #1 team in the nation in front of everyone.
And what about #6 Arkansas (finished #3), which smoked #2 Oklahoma by 25 in the Orange Bowl? Also a contender, with its loss to Texas (at home by four). But those were the only teams it played that finished ranked.
Oh, and Penn State had one loss, and finished #5. Penn State lost to eventual #6 Kentucky, at home; it beat #8 Pittsburgh away (by 2), and beat #18 Arizona State (the WAC champions) in the fiesta bowl (by 12). A fine season, but hardly deserving of jumping the teams ahead of it.
This post is an overreaction, but it counters the microaggression that ND's championships are the results of favors. I know there are some that are disputed (and the school only claims 11 of the 13 the NCAA recognizes), but the 70s aren't them.
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I get what you are saying and the ACC was obviously a weak football conference aside from FSU during that run but those Seminoles did very well against high end opponents as well. Over that 1987-2000 stretch they were:
- 11-4-1 against the Gators (including a lot of VERY good Gator teams)
- 7-7 against Miami
- 10-1 against Clemson
- 8-1 each against UVA and NCST
- 9-0 each against Maryland, Dook, GaTech, Wake, and UNC
- 6-0 against Tulane
- 5-0 against VaTech
- 4-0 each against USCe and UNL
- 3-1 each against USM and Auburn
- 3-0 each against LSU, Memphis, Louisville, and ECU
- 2-1 against Notre Dame
- 2-0 each against aTm, LaTech, MSU, Cuse, GaSo, USC, and BYU
- 1-0 each against MTSU, Furman, Cincy, Kansas, UCF, TxTech, Michigan, WMU, PSU, and tOSU
- 0-1 each against TN and OU
FSU had to "get up" for 2-3 games a year for that stretch. Kinda like talking about Boise State today, or UCF or something.
I went with Bama's run, and they aren't done yet.
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can't they, please, be done for a decade or two?
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lets hope not.