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The Power Five => Big XII => Topic started by: Thumper on May 10, 2019, 12:13:55 PM

Title: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: Thumper on May 10, 2019, 12:13:55 PM
CBS ranked the CFB coaches and the Big 12 is represented pretty well 

19(https://c-2rtwjumjzx789x24x78utwyx78kqdx2ehgx78nx78yfynhx2ehtr.g00.cbssports.com/g00/3_c-2bbb.hgx78x78utwyx78.htr_/c-2RTWJUMJZX9x24myyux78x3ax2fx2fx78utwyx78kqd.hgx78nx78yfynh.htrx2fkqd-644x2fgzsiqjx78x2fx78utwyx78rjinfhx78x78x2fnrfljx78x2fyjfr-qtltx78x2fshffx2fNTBFXY.x78alx3fn65h.rfwpx3dnrflj_$/$/$/$/$/$/$/$) (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/teams/IOWAST/iowa-state-cyclones/)
IOWA ST. (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/teams/IOWAST/iowa-state-cyclones/)
Matt Campbell: Here's somebody who is rising quickly, and I understand why, even if I think this is a little too high too quickly. I had Campbell at No. 22 on my ballot, as I admire what he's done at Iowa State in such a short amount of time. I just wouldn't put him ahead of guys like Ferentz, Cutcliffe, and others who have accomplished more for longer periods of time. Still, if I were hiring a coach to run my program right now, I'd lean Campbell over them, and I don't blame my colleagues if that's what they were basing their rankings on. 2018 rank: 30 (+11)




17(https://c-2rtwjumjzx789x24x78utwyx78kqdx2ehgx78nx78yfynhx2ehtr.g00.cbssports.com/g00/3_c-2bbb.hgx78x78utwyx78.htr_/c-2RTWJUMJZX9x24myyux78x3ax2fx2fx78utwyx78kqd.hgx78nx78yfynh.htrx2fkqd-644x2fgzsiqjx78x2fx78utwyx78rjinfhx78x78x2fnrfljx78x2fyjfr-qtltx78x2fshffx2fYJCFX.x78alx3fn65h.rfwpx3dnrflj_$/$/$/$/$/$/$/$) (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/teams/TEXAS/texas-longhorns/)
TEXAS (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/teams/TEXAS/texas-longhorns/)
Tom Herman: I get the feeling that Herman's going to be a lot like Malzahn in these rankings. If Texas has a good season, he's going to climb more spots than most. If Texas has a down year, he's going to drop more spots than most. I'd also like to predict that if Texas wins 10 games or more again in 2019, he'll be damn near cracking the top 10 of these rankings next spring. If he wins the Big 12 and beats Oklahoma, I guarantee it'll happen. 2018 rank: 28 (+11)
12(https://c-2rtwjumjzx789x24x78utwyx78kqdx2ehgx78nx78yfynhx2ehtr.g00.cbssports.com/g00/3_c-2bbb.hgx78x78utwyx78.htr_/c-2RTWJUMJZX9x24myyux78x3ax2fx2fx78utwyx78kqd.hgx78nx78yfynh.htrx2fkqd-644x2fgzsiqjx78x2fx78utwyx78rjinfhx78x78x2fnrfljx78x2fyjfr-qtltx78x2fshffx2fTPQFXY.x78alx3fn65h.rfwpx3dnrflj_$/$/$/$/$/$/$/$) (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/teams/OKLAST/oklahoma-state-cowboys/)
OKLAHOMA ST. (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/teams/OKLAST/oklahoma-state-cowboys/)
Mike Gundy: When will my colleagues admire Gundy as much as I do? I had him at No. 5 on my ballot, and admittedly, that is probably a little bullish, particularly after a 7-6 season. Still, Gundy has gone 121-59 in 14 seasons with the Cowboys and 85-32 over the last nine years. The only thing missing is the conference titles, which I assume is a major reason my colleagues aren't as high on him as I am. Still, if I were running a program, there aren't many coaches in the country right now I'd hire over Gundy. 2018 rank: 11 (-1)
8(https://c-2rtwjumjzx789x24x78utwyx78kqdx2ehgx78nx78yfynhx2ehtr.g00.cbssports.com/g00/3_c-2bbb.hgx78x78utwyx78.htr_/c-2RTWJUMJZX9x24myyux78x3ax2fx2fx78utwyx78kqd.hgx78nx78yfynh.htrx2fkqd-644x2fgzsiqjx78x2fx78utwyx78rjinfhx78x78x2fnrfljx78x2fyjfr-qtltx78x2fshffx2fYHZ.x78alx3fn65h.rfwpx3dnrflj_$/$/$/$/$/$/$/$) (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/teams/TCU/tcu-horned-frogs/)
TCU (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/teams/TCU/tcu-horned-frogs/)
Gary Patterson: With TCU going 7-6 last season, you knew Patterson's ranking would take a hit, but so much seemed to go wrong for the Horned Frogs last season that still managing to go 7-6 felt like an achievement. Of course, we've seen a few instances already where Patterson's TCU teams have something of a reset season and then immediately follow it up with 11 or 12 wins. Will it happen again in 2019? 2018 rank: 6 (-2)
4(https://c-2rtwjumjzx789x24x78utwyx78kqdx2ehgx78nx78yfynhx2ehtr.g00.cbssports.com/g00/3_c-2bbb.hgx78x78utwyx78.htr_/c-2RTWJUMJZX9x24myyux78x3ax2fx2fx78utwyx78kqd.hgx78nx78yfynh.htrx2fkqd-644x2fgzsiqjx78x2fx78utwyx78rjinfhx78x78x2fnrfljx78x2fyjfr-qtltx78x2fshffx2fTPQF.x78alx3fn65h.rfwpx3dnrflj_$/$/$/$/$/$/$/$) (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/teams/OKLA/oklahoma-sooners/)
OKLAHOMA (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/teams/OKLA/oklahoma-sooners/)
Lincoln Riley: This is another instance where I love the coach, but I can't rank him this highly myself. Not yet. I have Riley at No. 8 on my ballot, and I feel like that's very high considering he's only been at Oklahoma for two seasons. Plus, it's not like he inherited a program that was in shambles. That said, the Sooners have gone 24-4, won two Big 12 titles, reached the CFP twice, and have two different Heisman Trophy winners in Riley's two seasons ... so it's hard to argue against having him this high. 2018 rank: 15 (+11)

Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: CWSooner on May 10, 2019, 12:59:51 PM

Quote
Mike Gundy: When will my colleagues admire Gundy as much as I do? I had him at No. 5 on my ballot, and admittedly, that is probably a little bullish, particularly after a 7-6 season. Still, Gundy has gone 121-59 in 14 seasons with the Cowboys and 85-32 over the last nine years. The only thing missing is the conference titles, which I assume is a major reason my colleagues aren't as high on him as I am. Still, if I were running a program, there aren't many coaches in the country right now I'd hire over Gundy. 2018 rank: 11 (-1)
That guy doesn't know what a mullet-head doofus Mike Gundy is.


When asked if he had seen the OU victory over (IRRC) Ohio State, he ansered that he hadn't, because he had been hunting turtles.  Any coach who has two wins and a double-digit number of losses against his hated in-state rival, and says he was hunting turtles rather than watching said hated rival play a big-game opponent, is a doofus.
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: utee94 on May 10, 2019, 01:08:19 PM
Well, he probably is a doofus, but I'm pretty sure he said that for the sole purpose of getting a rise out of Sooner fans such as yourself. ;)

Anyway, overall that looks like a pretty appropriate ranking of B12 coaches. 
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: FearlessF on May 10, 2019, 01:30:08 PM
Scott Frost barely makes the list at #25

this season is an opportunity to prove himself against the others on the list
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: Thumper on May 10, 2019, 03:06:16 PM
As the author stated, the small body of work keeps newer coaches down the list.  
I like Mike Gundy and I think he is a very good coach but it seems to me he has gotten complacent and is content to be mid-pack.  
Herman is the one with a real chance to rise this year if he equals or betters last year's record.
Riley has very little room to move up and a lot of chances to move down.  
The new coaches at KU, KSU and TTU seem to be solid hires.  Les has nowhere to go but up at KU and I expect he will make an immediate improvement.
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: CWSooner on May 10, 2019, 07:08:01 PM
Well, he probably is a doofus, but I'm pretty sure he said that for the sole purpose of getting a rise out of Sooner fans such as yourself. ;)

Anyway, overall that looks like a pretty appropriate ranking of B12 coaches.
He definitely is a doofus, but I am sure you are right about his motivation for that comment.
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2019, 06:40:07 AM
How can folks rank coaches, other than to generate a pointless list for clicks?

The best coach might be someone with an 8-5 team with little talent.

I could probably coach Clemson and Alabama to 11-2.  I couldn't sustain that over time, probably.  I'd be deferring a lot.
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: longhorn320 on June 02, 2019, 08:27:21 AM
It is hard to rank good coaches

but it is easy to rank bad coaches
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2019, 08:34:47 AM
Well, a "bad coach" could be someone who inherited a lesser talented team and can't make it up "in time".  But I agree with your point, one can look at say Butch Jones and see examples of poor coaching pretty clearly over the years, including stupid stuff he said in public.  The better coaches usually use "coach speak" and avoid over promising.

Maybe Snyder at KSU was the best coach in the country, I don't know, or Peterson at UW.

I thought Spurrier was an excellent game day coach.  He didn't like to recruit.  Urban Meyer won everywhere.  Saban wins when at a top program at least.  Dabo has earned some plaudits.  One could almost just post winning percentages by coach and rank them that way though, but it would overlook perhaps a great coach with lesser talent.

I do agree it's easier to spot a bad coach than a great one.
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: CWSooner on June 02, 2019, 10:53:40 AM
Barry Switzer said on many occasions that Bill Snyder is the best coach in the history of college football.

I concur with the comments on Lincoln Riley.  It's too early to rank him #4 in all the land.  He might be the best offensive coordinator, but as head coach he's also responsible for that horrific defense OU has put out on the field the last two years.

He's taken strong steps in the off-season to fix the problem.  We must await results.
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: longhorn320 on June 02, 2019, 11:30:53 AM
One of the things that make a great coach is his ability to recruit 

If a coach cant convince mommy and daddy to let their child attend 

the coaches school then how can he be expected to create a winning attitude 

on the field


Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2019, 08:21:18 AM
Mark Richt could recruit at a high level, but I didn't think he could often win against similarly talented teams.  Smart is recruiting at an even higher level, and thus far he needs to beat Bama for me to believe he's a really good coach.  One thing Dooley's teams almost never did was lose to an inferior opponent.  Richt's teams did.  Smart's so far have not after year one, but that's only two years worth.  They have had a couple embarrassing losses, but to good teams.

Brohm at Purdue is an interesting coach I think.  Brown at UNC will be interesting to watch.  Day at OSU.  Imagine they FLOP to say 10-3.
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: longhorn320 on June 03, 2019, 08:30:36 AM
Mack was always a great recruiter
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2019, 08:51:06 AM
The various web sites have to be a bit creative in the off season to get clicks.  I suppose Athlon et al. have their own rankings.

Imagine your coach is pretty low but you like him a lot.  Does that change your opinion?  Do any of us really care about these rankings?

I stumbled across a PROJECTED AP preseason ranking.  Click city.  The Internet is wonderful.
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: utee94 on June 03, 2019, 02:19:36 PM
Mack's recruiting for his final 5 years or so was lazy at best, and downright awful some years.  Very few "hits" and way more "misses" which just shows you how stupid the recruiting rankings are.  
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: longhorn320 on June 03, 2019, 02:36:45 PM
Mack's recruiting for his final 5 years or so was lazy at best, and downright awful some years.  Very few "hits" and way more "misses" which just shows you how stupid the recruiting rankings are. 
Macks last 5 years recruiting rankings were 6/2/4/2/17 respectively

win/loss record during that time was 42 and 22

It looks good to me

Now as far as development of personnel is concerned that may be another story
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: utee94 on June 03, 2019, 03:53:51 PM
Macks last 5 years recruiting rankings were 6/2/4/2/17 respectively

win/loss record during that time was 42 and 22

It looks good to me

Now as far as development of personnel is concerned that may be another story
42-22 looks like crap to me, but it's not even the correct W/L record for Mack's final 5 seasons' worth of recruiting.  Mack's terrible recruiting was also a large part of the 2014, 2015, and 2016 teams that went 6-7, 5-7, and 5-7.  Counting those years, the record of teams with Mack's final 5 seasons of recruits on them was 9-4, 8-5, 6-7, 5-7, 5-7 for a total of 33-30.

So in reality you've made my point for me.  The recruiting rankings are complete crap.  Even 42-22 is a pretty terrible record for that level of recruiting ranking, but that's exactly my point-- those rankings are useless, because the moment a kid gets an offer from Texas, he jumps up a star.

The development wasn't nearly as bad as the evaluation.  Mack's lazy ass stopped actually bothering to recruit the best players, and he got into this mode of only bothering with players that were going to come to Texas anyway.  The results on the field were obvious and devastatingly bad.  

Mack gave up for the second half of his career, which is precisely why he was fired, and for good reason.  But one thing's for sure, I'm darn glad he brought Vince Young to the Horns, and that alone is worth having had him as our coach.

Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: longhorn320 on June 03, 2019, 05:16:53 PM
Its a little unfair to hang Strongs results on MB

Hell we couldnt even get the coin toss right under CS

and 42 wins over 5 years is an avg of 8 wins a year

Look you just didnt like MB and I get that 

but like it or not he was a great recruiter

Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: utee94 on June 03, 2019, 05:55:52 PM
I loved Mack Brown.

But he turned into a lazy, shitty recruiter at the end of his tenure.  There's just no denying that, it was widely known amongst all of the other coaching staffs in Texas and the B12 that didn't really even have to compete against Texas anymore. They were laughing.  I guess, so was Mack, all the way to the bank.
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: CWSooner on June 03, 2019, 06:44:50 PM
Mack sure let a bunch of great Texas HS QBs escape to other schools.  And QB play was seldom a strength for UT after 2009, when Colt McCoy's eligibility expired.
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: longhorn320 on June 03, 2019, 07:17:12 PM
Mack sure let a bunch of great Texas HS QBs escape to other schools.  And QB play was seldom a strength for UT after 2009, when Colt McCoy's eligibility expired.
well at least we always had a good defense
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: longhorn320 on June 03, 2019, 07:25:15 PM
Speaking of coaches who are good recruiters 

Herman Gets a contract extension

https://www.si.com/college-football/2019/05/23/texas-longhorns-tom-herman-contract-extension (https://www.si.com/college-football/2019/05/23/texas-longhorns-tom-herman-contract-extension)
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: utee94 on June 04, 2019, 08:35:23 AM
Mack sure let a bunch of great Texas HS QBs escape to other schools.  And QB play was seldom a strength for UT after 2009, when Colt McCoy's eligibility expired.
It's tough to blame him for Garrett Gilbert being a total bust, that kid was highly recruited by pretty much every college in the country, and if nothing else Greg Davis had a history with developing QBs pretty well so I don't believe that was the issue.

But after that, QB recruiting was a complete disaster.  
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: utee94 on June 04, 2019, 08:36:29 AM
well at least we always had a good defense
That's definitely what puzzled me most about Charlie Strong's tenure at Texas. I thought at the very least, he was capable of fielding a competent defense.  But... nope.
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: longhorn320 on June 04, 2019, 09:12:03 AM
That's definitely what puzzled me most about Charlie Strong's tenure at Texas. I thought at the very least, he was capable of fielding a competent defense.  But... nope.
yep

it was as if they lost their spirit to fight

Thats one of the reasons I like our current coach

He approaches games like hes in a street fight

The players have picked up on this and even have a little

swagger

assuming our QB stays healthy I think we are in for a very good year

Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: Mr Tulip on June 04, 2019, 11:12:04 AM
I believe it all flows together.

We worked a ton of miracles with Colt McCoy. He was a dynamic QB, and unfortunately a risky single point of failure. We rode him through the season his senior year, and darned near made it. An innocent hit on a routine option play changed college football as we know it. Without that hit that took Colt out of the game, Texas obliterates Alabama. Texas doesn't change anything, and Alabama goes on to be just a pretty good college football team.

Instead, Colt is lost for the game. Gilbert does his level best, but isn't ready for the big stage. Bama ascends to an unstoppable juggernaut, and Mack decides he's never again trusting success to one player. He begins to remake the Texas Longhorns into a physical Alabama team - a concept that the Texas high schools just aren't embracing. He tries to jam players into roles they're just not suited for. Gilbert never gets his feet under himself, and Mack gets ushered out.

Strong, for all his refreshing focus on team fundamentals, is a coach with little exposure to this big stage. His cupboard is bare, and his offense is a muddle of untrained linemen and speedy outside guys. With no clear vision, Big 12 defenses just squat near the ball and wait. His own defense works tirelessly, but just can't finish a game after the 10th 3 and out series.

Tom Herman is still learning his style, but he's been on the arm of knowledgeable leaders. He knows what it takes to win at this level, and has winning as his sole focus. The players are re-learning to hate losing. Every day, they can win or lose position battles, unit battles, training battles, etc. The game on Saturday is only one more contest. He's surrounded himself with like minded coaches. If a unit isn't producing, changes get made until it is - even if a coach gets moved on.

Texas will continue to grow. I am, though, curious to see what happens when one of the critical assistant coaches can no longer be money whipped to stay. Replacing talent will be a big test.
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: longhorn320 on June 04, 2019, 01:16:17 PM
Well if Im gonna get whipped it might as well be with money or maybe one other thing
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: Mr Tulip on June 04, 2019, 03:44:54 PM
Well if Im gonna get whipped it might as well be with money or maybe one other thing
I mean, I'm pretty sure right now Orlando is good with his job. I know he's a loyal guy, and wants to see Herman get the program on solid footing. I'm not expecting him to run out the door immediately.

However, if he has head coach aspirations, someone will ask about him eventually. His creativity in using the players he has to counteract the Big 12's spread offenses has made this Texas rebuild look quick. It owes a lot to his techniques. Replacing him won't be easy.
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: utee94 on June 05, 2019, 10:28:46 AM
Agree.  We need to keep Orlando around as long as possible.  But I'm guessing Herman already has a short list of who he'd approach as a potential replacement

Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: BrownCounty on June 14, 2019, 08:45:22 PM
Its a little unfair to hang Strongs results on MB

Yeah, cuz MB never had anything to do with USF.
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: MrNubbz on June 16, 2019, 11:22:52 AM
I believe it all flows together.

We worked a ton of miracles with Colt McCoy. He was a dynamic QB, and unfortunately a risky single point of failure. We rode him through the season his senior year, and darned near made it. An innocent hit on a routine option play changed college football as we know it. Without that hit that took Colt out of the game, Texas obliterates Alabama. Texas doesn't change anything, and Alabama goes on to be just a pretty good college football team.
Yup and I don't think that's just a fanboys slant.Texas was moving the chains systematically as I always thought he was one of the best collegiate game managers.Fundamentals,technique,mechanics,Xs & Os as damn near mistake free as one can get.Intelligent and a hard worker.Shame he didn't have Ryan Leafs/Brandon Weedens/Jamarcus Russells physical attributes - they damn sure weren't using them.
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: bayareabadger on June 17, 2019, 07:54:16 AM
42-22 looks like crap to me, but it's not even the correct W/L record for Mack's final 5 seasons' worth of recruiting.  Mack's terrible recruiting was also a large part of the 2014, 2015, and 2016 teams that went 6-7, 5-7, and 5-7.  Counting those years, the record of teams with Mack's final 5 seasons of recruits on them was 9-4, 8-5, 6-7, 5-7, 5-7 for a total of 33-30.

So in reality you've made my point for me.  The recruiting rankings are complete crap.  Even 42-22 is a pretty terrible record for that level of recruiting ranking, but that's exactly my point-- those rankings are useless, because the moment a kid gets an offer from Texas, he jumps up a star.

The development wasn't nearly as bad as the evaluation.  Mack's lazy ass stopped actually bothering to recruit the best players, and he got into this mode of only bothering with players that were going to come to Texas anyway.  The results on the field were obvious and devastatingly bad. 

Mack gave up for the second half of his career, which is precisely why he was fired, and for good reason.  But one thing's for sure, I'm darn glad he brought Vince Young to the Horns, and that alone is worth having had him as our coach.


The argument that recruiting rankings are complete crap would be incorrect. They are not a perfect indicator (nothing is), but they’re a very good one.
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: utee94 on June 17, 2019, 10:34:34 PM
In a general sense they are one data point that might not be terrible.  But in this specific case, you are incorrect.

Texas or Alabama offers a 3-star and the recruiting services raise him to a 4-star.  This type of thing occurs regularly. That's where recruiting rankings for a team like Texas under Mack Brown become inflated and stop reflecting reality.

Mack Brown was a great receuiter for his first decade or so at Texas.  After that he got very lazy, but the recruiting rankings didn't suffer much because the recruiting services were part of the machine.
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: Mr Tulip on June 18, 2019, 10:24:53 AM
As I see it, we've picked an outlier to argue a point. I believe recruiting rankings matter a great deal. However, Texas at this time was an extremely rare beast.

Mack essentially let Street and Smith's and Athlon pick his recruiting targets over the last 4 years. The top players would get offers, and most would accept them. The trouble was, for a lot of them, their lifelong dream was to get a lot of stars and become a Texas football player. Once they'd accomplished this, they dropped any pretense of effort. Accountability was nonexistent. They came in as a group of high school all-stars - and never got any better. The results simply followed the effort level (as life is wont to do).

I believe head football coaches have a shelf-life. Mack simply exceeded his. Effort and focus can only stay sharp for so long in a human being. Texas was a rare beast indeed that combined historical success with recent wins. The recruiting services bumped players with Texas interest, and Texas rewarded that bump with a scholarship offer. There are few schools with that pedigree. In this particular window, Texas had a feedback loop (for lack of a better analogy) that kept the stars high while the wins were low. Eventually, the stars faded and matched the wins.
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: bayareabadger on June 27, 2019, 03:54:09 PM
In a general sense they are one data point that might not be terrible.  But in this specific case, you are incorrect.

Texas or Alabama offers a 3-star and the recruiting services raise him to a 4-star.  This type of thing occurs regularly. That's where recruiting rankings for a team like Texas under Mack Brown become inflated and stop reflecting reality.

Mack Brown was a great receuiter for his first decade or so at Texas.  After that he got very lazy, but the recruiting rankings didn't suffer much because the recruiting services were part of the machine.
I think this is interesting because it asked a central question: Is the concern that there is actually a rot at the top of the ranking, i.e. they stop working well when certain top programs continue to skate? Or is it a moment where someone is going to be an outlier, and the fans of the teams that are feel a certain level of exceptionalism (i.e., this is happening to the team is see closest, that must mean the system is wrong, rather than my team being a quirk in it)

So was Texas getting players who were smaller and slower than before? Were those players' offer sheets shrinking in quality? It's all well and good to say other coaches said such and such behind the scenes. They might well have said the same in 2004, but it only pops up when outcomes confirm it.

My theory on this is a different angle, something I call cluster busting. There's a term in baseball called hit clustering, namely, if I have nine hits in a game and the come in two innings, I likely have a few runs, if they's spread out to 1-2 per inning, I have few.

Going in, we assume some percentage of 4-star and five-star kids will bust. Assuming 11-12 schools are in the top fifth of recruiting, math says 1-2 will not be playing at that level. Texas for a stretch might just have been it (focused mostly on the late Brown era. The coaching change/strong era complicates things somewhat). If you run into a mildly higher bust rate than average, it might well drop a team from 10-11 wins to 8-9, which is what happened. 

(South Carolina is a great example of this. The hight of the Spurrier era saw a really good run of hitting on nearly every blue chipper and getting a lot of three-stars to become Connor Shaw, then their recruiting dropped a tick or two as the state was without five-stars, but they started having a horrendous bust rate on four-stars)

Now this is not to say the coaches are particularly absolved. Recruiting rankings have trouble with dumbasses, both behaviorally and in terms of grades. A staff makes its bones on the edges taking the right number of risks that they can get the most out of (some are more skilled at identifying and dealing with this, other's not). I recall Strong having to clean house to a degree, so perhaps that factored in. 

Anyway, my larger point is, I'm skeptical the ratings had some massive flaw in them, other than a high level of deference toward people who physically look able to play football and have done so at high level programs/in camp settings against high level players. But if it was truly flawed, I guess I can just ignore OSU/Bama/Texas ratings at all times and assume it's just a mystery if they're really getting good players. 

(There's also the motivation factor, and I wouldn't be surprised if a run of Texas players were prone to getting too high on their own hype)
Title: Re: CBS Top 25 Coaches
Post by: Mr Tulip on June 27, 2019, 05:29:27 PM
At Texas, Mack did not have to attract talent. The 4 star talent always answered his phone calls. Maybe not all the 5 stars were interested always, but they're a rarity anyway.

The problem is, not all talent is equal. An athletically gifted 16 or 17 year old, living at home, can really dazzle on a high school football field simply by being faster or stronger than the competition. However, that 18 year old will certainly need to improve and develop at college in order to compete. He will need the discipline to complete his studies - if nothing else, to stay eligible.

In the beginning, Mack and Co invested the time and energy to select their scholarship roster from kids with both talent and hunger. They were certainly good players in high school, but also showed that they'd put in the effort necessary to grow. The coaches would investigate living arrangements and ask questions about ethics. "Character" is a trite word, but sort of sums up what they'd look for. It was important, because they'd have 80 talented high school stars vying for 23 spots on scholarship each year. They had to own their misses.

The downfall came when they stopped doing that work. Recruiting magazines issue stars based on performance. They don't factor in the development ability or character issues (beyond glaring criminal or academic issues). The Texas coaches stopped doing their due diligence and started listening to the star raters. The roster started filling up with high school all-stars more impressed with the prestige of being a Texas Longhorn football player, rather than doing the work required of a Longhorn teammate. Kids that came in as a good high school player left as the good high school player without growing.