CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: OrangeAfroMan on May 07, 2019, 07:38:18 PM
-
This is an interesting year, where the BCS #3 team, USC, was #1 in the AP poll. So in the era of 1 vs 2, we had a split MNC. Fun.
So semifinals would be:
#1 OU vs #4 Michigan
#2 LSU vs #3 USC
Who would the champ be? Let's look deeper:
The Teams:
#1 Oklahoma, 12-1
3rd in scoring offense
5th in scoring defense
32nd strength of schedule
The Sooners were the top team from day one through the entire regular season. They destroyed three ranked opponents #11 Texas (65-13), #24 Mzzou (34-13) and #14 OK State (52-9) on their way to a 12-0 record. But in the Big 12 CG, #13 KSU blew them out 35-7. The humbled Sooner remained #1 in the BCS rankings at season's end.
Interestingly, Oklahoma featured a big-scoring offense. Their yardage wasn't overwhelming, but they put the ball in the endzone, scoring 50+ points seven times during the season. Heisman-winner QB White threw 40 TD passes. His top target was WR Clayton, with 1400 yds and 15 TD. The running game was mostly used as a change-of-pace, with no RBs having strong yards per carry numbers.
The OU defense was strong as well, with an especially impressive pass D, considering the conference they're in. 146 yards allowed through the air in the Big XII was incredible, but the Sooners weren't soft vs the run, either. 22 INTs helped a lot, too. The Sooners had All-American talents at all three tiers of the defense, preventing 8 opponents from reaching 14 points in their contests.
OU had strong special teams, with mediocre KR, decent punting, and a good FG success rate (86%, K Dicarlo). But the PR game was all-time special, with PR Perkins running 4 kicks back on the year.
-
#2 LSU, 12-1, SEC Champions
19th in scoring offense
1st in scoring defense
41st strength of schedule
The Bayou Bengals won their conference by beating a top-10 Georgia team twice. They also beat #17 Auburn in a blowout and a close win at #15 Ole Miss. The Tigers' only blemish was a home game vs unranked Florida.
LSU got by on a decent offense. QB Mauck did a good job distributing the ball, and RB Vincent gained 1,001 yards at 6.5 per rush. However, the offense turned the ball over a lot, which didn't help things. The Tigers had a 1,000 yard receiver to match their 1,000 yard rusher in WR Clayton. WRs Henderson and Green were strong complements in the passing game as well.
LSU had a special season thanks to its defense. No one could run on the Tigers (67 ypg allowed). 11 of their 13 games ended with opponents scoring 14 or fewer points. Besides 21 INTs, the Tigers' defense scored seven TDs of their own. Elite DBs and an elite DL helped LSU to the best scoring defense in the country.
KR was good, punting was good, PR Green had 2 TD returns and a fantastic average (18.5), but the FG kicking was a problem. Two kickers combined to hit just 60% of FG tries.
-
#3 USC, 11-1, Pac-10 Champions
5th in scoring offense
17th in scoring defense
36th strength of schedule
The men of Troy began the year at #6 Auburn, and shut them out. The only other ranked foe, #6 Washington State, were blown out by the Trojans. But an early-season loss at unranked Cal by 3 was the low point for USC. They did win their last 8 games to make it into the playoff.
USC sported a pass-happy offense, with a big year from QB Leinart. He threw 38 TDs his first year as starter and had great numbers across the board. His top 2 targets both went over 1,000 yards for the season (WR Williams and Colbert) and combined for 25 TD catches. The Trojans relied on a RB committee, which was above average by the numbers (RBs White, Dennis, Bush).
Defensively, the Trojans focused on the run and shut it down, allowing just 60 ypg. Amazing! However, that focus allowed teams to pass for 275+ yards per game. 22 INTs helped, as did 8 total defense TDs. But for elite teams, that pass defense was a sieve.
RB Bush was a great KR and Malone the punter was great. But the K Kileen hit 79% of his FGs (good) and the PR didn't do much.
-
#4 Michigan, 10-2, Big Ten Champions
13th in scoring offense
11th in scoring defense
34th strength of schedule
One of many 2-loss helmet teams outside the top 3, the Wolverines won the last six games to get in the playoff. An early-season 38-0 thumping of #15 ND had expectations high for only moments, as UM lost 2 of its next 3, at #22 Oregon and at #23 Iowa. Both were one-score contests. Michigan won the next week at #17 Minnesota and eventually faced three top-10 teams down the stretch, beating #10 Purdue big, at #9 MSU close, and comfortably vs #4 OSU.
The offense was very good, with QB Navarre tossing 24 TDs, 14 of which went to top target WR Edwards. His 1100+ yds receiving paced the Wolverines, but WRs Avant and Breaston contributed much as well.
RB Perry was steady and had a nose for the goalline (1600 yds at 5.0 per carry, 18 TDs). They basically fed him the ball.
A good defense overall, it wasn't special. UM was good vs the pass and run, but not dominant vs either. It failed to cause many turnovers, but played good, solid defense.
PR Breaston was great at returning punts, not as great returning kickoffs. K Rivas improved the FG kicking as he took over for P Finley.
The Award Winners involved:
QB Jason White, Oklahoma - Heisman, AP POY, O'Brien, All-American (AA)
CB Derrick Strait, Oklahoma - Nagurski, Thorpe, AA
LB Teddy Lehman, Oklahoma - Bednarik, Butkus, AA
RB Chris Perry, Michigan - Walker, AA
DT Tommie Harris, Oklahoma - Lombardi, AA
HC Pete Carroll, USC - AFCA, Home Depot COY
HC Nick Saban, LSU - AP, Robinson, Bryant COY
HC Bob Stoops, Oklahoma - Camp COY
WR Mike Williams, USC - AA
OL Jacob Rogers, USC - AA
KR Antonio Perkins, Oklahoma - AA
DT Chad Lavalais, LSU - AA
DE Kenechi Udeze, USC - AA
Who ya got?
-
Same result we actually got in the Sugar Bowl
-
It wouldn't have been Michigan
-
I got the Sooner defense
CB Derrick Strait,
LB Teddy Lehman,
DT Tommie Harris,
with QB Jason White,
-
The kind of year where a different team would win it if they played this out 12 times.
-
I got USC over LSU in a close one, but I wouldn't have been surprised if LSU won.
IIRC, this was the year that started the whole "Big Game Bob" thing for OU.
-
Yeah, I was thinking about Stoops here. I don't know what happened to his team in 2003, but they should have won it all. I know he gets flack for getting drilled vs USC in 2004, but this was a really bad missed opportunity.
Looking back at the Sugar Bowl/BCSNCG last night, and you're going to hate to hear this, but that talented OU team couldn't handle the LSU talent/speed from its big guys. That SEC defensive lineman thing truly set several SEC schools apart from everyone else, during that run. DE Marcus Spears had a pick-6.
Having special talent on the DL is a huge deal. You can get pressure on the QB without blitzing. You can shut down the run. DT Chad Lavalais looked like a golden god out there...and was only a 5th-round pick. But thanks to depth, he was running sideline-to-sideline. That depth lets your 1st team go full tilt, because there's another guy behind him ready to play, who's a little too big for his 40 time...or maybe he's a little too fast for his size, I can't remember.
Anyway, OU, on paper, should have won. But like Tyson said, "everybody's got a plan until they get hit in the face."
-
low scoring game with two good defenses
stats pretty close
the pick 6 was obviously a huge play
if they played the game 6 times they might both win 3, or it could go the Sooner's way
White had a rough game, due to the LSU defense for sure
could have been that Bobby and his staff were outcoached
I'm still taking the Sooners in a playoff. They handle Michigan and then might get the Trojan defense in the final
-
Men of Troy. I hate him, but I believe in Pete Carroll and his teams in the mid-aughts.
-
Weaknesses:
OU - none at first glance, but vs LSU, maybe OL play? Too reliant on one receiver?
LSU - not a big offense, turnovers
USC - pass D, RBs weren't ultra-productive yet
UM - lacked the overall talent level of the other 3, reliant on good/not great RB
-
My assessment of the OU-LSU Sugar Bowl was/is that LSU was better prepared. Jason White had gotten injured in the K-State game and was not close to 100%, LSU's man-press coverage was better than anything OU had seen all year. Also, there was an incident during bowl prep with some LSU coaches coming into the Superdome while OU was still practicing and spying out a trick play (out of punt formation, IIRC) that OU had installed just for this game. (LSU was obviously prepared for the trick play.) Then White threw the pick 6.
After all that OU dominated the 4th quarter, getting the running game going well, and had a 1st down at about the 15 with plenty of time to score a tying TD and send it to overtime. But OC Chuck Long abandoned the run and White threw 6 consecutive incomplete passes (there was a DPI penalty in there) and the Sooners did not score. Held LSU, got the ball back midfield-ish, and White threw another four consecutive incompletions, and that was the ball game. LSU 21, OU 14.
I think OU would have won 6 out of 10 against that LSU team, but LSU was definitely better prepared that night in New Orleans.
-
Weaknesses:
OU - none at first glance, but vs LSU, maybe OL play? Too reliant on one receiver?
LSU - not a big offense, turnovers
USC - pass D, RBs weren't ultra-productive yet
UM - lacked the overall talent level of the other 3, reliant on good/not great RB
Michigan didn't lack the talent of the other 3, they lacked the coaching. The 3 point losses to Iowa and Oregon were inexplicable but typical Lloyd Carr for you- with the exception of 1997, he always found ways to drop games to teams he was far superior than. Bob Stoops, Nick Saban, and Pete Carroll were a clear cut above LC as coach. Those are three of the all-time greats for sure. LC is great, but not in that class.
That Michigan team was pretty loaded on both sides of the ball. Chris Perry was a great RB by the way. Great combination of size, strength, power, speed, and blocking & pass catching ability. He was a 1st round pick for a reason. The fact that he didn't work out in the NFL wasn't because he was "good, not great". He didn't work out because all of the injuries. Injuries absolutely killed the guys career. His body completely broke down in the pros. He had major injuries every single year he played. He was a GREAT talent and college player however.
John Navarre was pretty god damn mediocre at QB, but every other part of that offense was basically elite. At RB Chris Perry was a 1st team All-American, the Doak Walker Award winner, and a 1st round NFL draft pick. The OL was an experienced, talented unit headlined by veteran guys like Baas, Pape, and Stenavich. And the WR's were absolutely loaded with Braylon Edwards and Jason Avant on the otuside and Breaston in the slot. I really think coaching and QB were that teams weak link. They had a really good OL and were loaded at the skill positions. Had they had a coach who wasn't accustomed to dropping games to inferior teams and a legit difference maker at QB and not a mediocre care taker- they'd have had a real shot at a title.
USC was the best team that year imo. Leinart was just on fire that year and Reggie Bush was a weapon that nobody could stop. Pete Carroll was as good a coach as there ever was in CFB at that point in time. At that point in time he was right up there with Saban and Urban.
-
It wouldn't have been Michigan
So much this.
-
Michigan didn't lack the talent of the other 3, they lacked the coaching. The 3 point losses to Iowa and Oregon were inexplicable but typical Lloyd Carr for you- with the exception of 1997, he always found ways to drop games to teams he was far superior than. Bob Stoops, Nick Saban, and Pete Carroll were a clear cut above LC as coach. Those are three of the all-time greats for sure. LC is great, but not in that class.
That Michigan team was pretty loaded on both sides of the ball. Chris Perry was a great RB by the way. Great combination of size, strength, power, speed, and blocking & pass catching ability. He was a 1st round pick for a reason. The fact that he didn't work out in the NFL wasn't because he was "good, not great". He didn't work out because all of the injuries. Injuries absolutely killed the guys career. His body completely broke down in the pros. He had major injuries every single year he played. He was a GREAT talent and college player however.
John Navarre was pretty god damn mediocre at QB, but every other part of that offense was basically elite. At RB Chris Perry was a 1st team All-American, the Doak Walker Award winner, and a 1st round NFL draft pick. The OL was an experienced, talented unit headlined by veteran guys like Baas, Pape, and Stenavich. And the WR's were absolutely loaded with Braylon Edwards and Jason Avant on the otuside and Breaston in the slot. I really think coaching and QB were that teams weak link. They had a really good OL and were loaded at the skill positions. Had they had a coach who wasn't accustomed to dropping games to inferior teams and a legit difference maker at QB and not a mediocre care taker- they'd have had a real shot at a title.
USC was the best team that year imo. Leinart was just on fire that year and Reggie Bush was a weapon that nobody could stop. Pete Carroll was as good a coach as there ever was in CFB at that point in time. At that point in time he was right up there with Saban and Urban.
Carr got those QBs off of an assembly line. Navarre wasn't the best he had, but fit the mold to a tee. Tall pocket passer with a big arm. Not as good as Henson or Brady or even Henne or Mallet, but certainly not a bad QB by any stretch.
-
I can't call Perry a "great" RB in 2003 at 5.0 yards per carry. 400 of his yards were against CMU and Houston. His 200 yard game vs MSU required 51 carries. He's in the Hart/Johnson group of RBs, not the Wheatley/Biakabutuka group. Now don't get me wrong, it's great to have a guy that can tote the ball 50 times when you need him to, but for a college RB, 5.0 ypc isn't great.
-
probably more on Carr and the O-coordinator, but when you have Braylon Edwards and Jason Avant on the otuside and Breaston in the slot there's no reason the RB should get 40 totes a game
I'm guessing the TE was open as well
-
Carr got those QBs off of an assembly line. Navarre wasn't the best he had, but fit the mold to a tee. Tall pocket passer with a big arm. Not as good as Henson or Brady or even Henne or Mallet, but certainly not a bad QB by any stretch.
Mallett was at Michigan all of 5 mins, so I don’t even really count him.
Navarre was recruited by most schools to play TE. He didn’t sign with Michigan until Carr gave him the option to play to QB. Navarre had a big arm yes, but he was pretty damn inaccurate. His 3 yrs as a starter he completed 53%, 55%, and 59%. That’s not exactly great. His TD to INT ratio as a starter was 62 TD vs 30 INT. Ok. But not exactly great.
Navarre also played with a boatload of talent that senior year. Life wasn’t exactly difficult playing with that crew. His OL was a seasoned veteran unit that had played together for a few years, his RB was the Doak Walker winner and a 1st round pick, and his 1-2-3 WRs were all NFL dfrat picks- his #1 receiver being the Biletnikoff winner the following year and a 1st round NFL draft pick.
I’m not slamming him, I just giving an honest opinion. He really wasn’t all that imo. Lots of guys could’ve QB’d that team at the level he did. I’d have loved to see that team with say a Drew Henson or Andrew Luck type talent. That’d have been something to behold.
-
I can't call Perry a "great" RB in 2003 at 5.0 yards per carry. 400 of his yards were against CMU and Houston. His 200 yard game vs MSU required 51 carries. He's in the Hart/Johnson group of RBs, not the Wheatley/Biakabutuka group. Now don't get me wrong, it's great to have a guy that can tote the ball 50 times when you need him to, but for a college RB, 5.0 ypc isn't great.
To me Perry isn’t in the Hart/Johnson category because he had the NFL 1st round type of raw physical talent those guys clearly didn’t have. Perry was 6’1, 225 lbs with legit 4.5 speed. He was big, physical, strong, and he could run away from people.
He’s most definitely in the same Wheatley/Biakabatuka category in my opinion. He’s actually got a few things over both of those guys- his blocking and catching. Perry was a fantastic pass blocker and he caught the ball out of the backfield as good maybe even better than any Michigan RB that I’ve seen.
He doesn’t get to control who he plays. Doesn’t matter that 400 of yards were against Houston and CMU. The MSU game was as impressive of a game as I’ve ever seen from a college RB. He physically wore down that MSU defense on the road in East Lansing. To take 51 carries and take the beating- he just kept converting short yardage and controlling the clock and taking the hits and kept coming at them. Perry also completely dominated reigning national champs Ohio State in Ann Arbor.
The 3 games Michigan lost that yeast were because Perry couldn’t get rolling. He only had a handful of carries against Oregon and against Iowa and USC both those teams sold out to stop the run and Perry was only able to get 80 ish yards against either team. When he had his 25-30 carries and ran for 100+ Michigan rolled. He was the key to that entire operation.
-
probably more on Carr and the O-coordinator, but when you have Braylon Edwards and Jason Avant on the otuside and Breaston in the slot there's no reason the RB should get 40 totes a game
I'm guessing the TE was open as well
That offensive crew Carr included weren’t exactly the sharpest knives in the drawer.
I think a lot of that though was them not having complete confidence in Navarre. He was an inaccurate passer and his TD to INT ratio was 2:1. OK. Not exactly great. Especially not when really good college QBs are often 3:1 or even higher. Haskins this past year was 6:1 for example. Baker Mayfield’s in his 3 years starting at Oklahoma? 9:1.
-
That offensive crew Carr included weren’t exactly the sharpest knives in the drawer.
I think a lot of that though was them not having complete confidence in Navarre. He was an inaccurate passer and his TD to INT ratio was 2:1. OK. Not exactly great. Especially not when really good college QBs are often 3:1 or even higher. Haskins this past year was 6:1 for example. Baker Mayfield’s in his 3 years starting at Oklahoma? 9:1.
I want to say that by nature, pro-style QBs are prone to throwing more interceptions than their dual-threat counterparts. They are heavily-reliant on good pass protection and timing, so when the pocket breaks down, they don't necessarily have the capability to roll out and throw "on the fly". You know you have a great pocket QB when he has a strong understanding of what his strengths and weaknesses are - instead of throwing the ball up for grabs, he'll either take the sack or throw the ball away to save a down or preserve field position.
However, in today's game even pro-style QBs need to have at least a little mobility to succeed. Defenses are getting faster and faster and love sitting ducks.
And that's not to say that dual-threat QBs don't have their weaknesses - very few have simultaneously strong and accurate arms, and make their living with their feet or throwing short and medium passes and let their playmakers do the rest.
-
To me Perry isn’t in the Hart/Johnson category because he had the NFL 1st round type of raw physical talent those guys clearly didn’t have. Perry was 6’1, 225 lbs with legit 4.5 speed. He was big, physical, strong, and he could run away from people.
If he was all that AND had a legit passing threat to take some focus off him, he'd average better than 5 yards per. Period.
Other top RBs that year:
Sproles - 6.5 - KSU
Knight - 5.4 - BC
Turner - 5.3 - NIU
Jones - 5.9 - VT
Perry has the worst career ypc average of the top 17 UM RBs by yards gained.
-
Another data point is that in the 2003 Jug game, Michigan came back at the same time Perry started ripping off 30 yards every time Navarre threw him a bubble screen. I think he's still running through the Metrodome end zone.
-
probably would have made a good NFL TE