CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ALA2262 on March 26, 2019, 11:24:34 AM
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On Tuesday, Marsh 19, Bet Online (https://betonline.ag/sportsbook/football/ncaa) released opening spreads for a number of 2019 college football games, beginning with Week 0 and going all the way through to the last week of the regular season.
https://betonline.ag/sportsbook/football/ncaa (https://betonline.ag/sportsbook/football/ncaa)
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Clemson opened at -21 over aTm. Dropped overnight to -15.
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Michigan favored in all games here, too. Could be the first time for that in 20 years. Though the OSU line is several points closer than for the ones published a week back.
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Michigan favored in all games here, too. Could be the first time for that in 20 years. Though the OSU line is several points closer than for the ones published a week back.
Yeah that opened at -6.5. Now at -3. I have the opening lines copied but it won't paste here. All I get is this:
Week 0
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
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If only there were a way to pin this thread, and steer all Vegas related talk regarding lines and point spreads into it from this point henceforth. O0
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Yeah that opened at -6.5. Now at -3.
I can't explain the copy/paste issue. Sometimes that's just 010000110001 witchery. As for the M/OSU line, is this the same source and it's moved by 3.5 or is it a separate source with its own ideas?
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I can't explain the copy/paste issue. Sometimes that's just 010000110001 witchery. As for the M/OSU line, is this the same source and it's moved by 3.5 or is it a separate source with its own ideas?
Same source. BetOnline. Clemson-aTm moved 6 points overnight from opening of -21. 'Auburn with a lake' vs 'Auburn with money'. Barn with money jumped all over that +21 points.
Hell, aTm beat them last season, but the damn ACC refs took the game away from them. aTm taking a SEC crew to Clemson this year. :)
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I don't get this, from Betonline.AG.
Oklahoma -11.5 vs. UCLA
Oklahoma -17 vs. Texas
Oklahoma -21 vs. TCU
The only one that makes any sense to me is the UCLA line.
OU has clearly had better teams than Texas for every year of the last five, yet has only gone 4-2 and has won those four by an average of 6.75 points.
This year, OU will be starting someone other than Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray at QB, and will be starting at least four new offensive linemen. Meanwhile, Texas is resurgent and figures to be better than last year, when the Horns won the regular-season game 48-45.
I don't get a 17-point spread. Texas fans will surely bet that one down to single digits, I think.
Regarding TCU, Gary Patterson always has a good defense. 21 seems like about 7 points too many.
OTOH, UCLA figures to be terrible. I wish we had never scheduled that series. UCLA is supposed to be OU's "marquee" game. But the opening game vs. Houston figures to be better.
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Take ND if you can get 11 points at UGA.
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From a novice: Can these numbers actually be bet on today, or does publishing them serve a different role? And if they're bettable, are the lines locked in when you place the bet, or do they continue to flex?
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From a novice: Can these numbers actually be bet on today, or does publishing them serve a different role? And if they're bettable, are the lines locked in when you place the bet, or do they continue to flex?
I can't tell you whether the numbers can be bet on today or not, but can answer your second question.
Once you place a bet, the line on your ticket is firm. Even if the line moves after you bet, what you have on your ticket is *your* official line. Much like horse racing as odds can change quite a bit up to the start time of the race, the odds you bet may be different than final odds, but what's on your ticket is yours.
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From a novice: Can these numbers actually be bet on today, or does publishing them serve a different role? And if they're bettable, are the lines locked in when you place the bet, or do they continue to flex?
It is live betting. Locked in.
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Thanks. How about the other part. If I bet on something when it is -20 and it moves wildly, say to -6 by game time, do I have -20 locked in or does everyone get -6?
I'm trying to snuff out the amount of power the oddsmakers have and what their penalties are for being way off at first.
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I don't get this, from Betonline.AG.
Oklahoma -11.5 vs. UCLA
Oklahoma -17 vs. Texas
Oklahoma -21 vs. TCU
The only one that makes any sense to me is the UCLA line.
OU has clearly had better teams than Texas for every year of the last five, yet has only gone 4-2 and has won those four by an average of 6.75 points.
This year, OU will be starting someone other than Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray at QB, and will be starting at least four new offensive linemen. Meanwhile, Texas is resurgent and figures to be better than last year, when the Horns won the regular-season game 48-45.
I don't get a 17-point spread. Texas fans will surely bet that one down to single digits, I think.
Regarding TCU, Gary Patterson always has a good defense. 21 seems like about 7 points too much.
OTOH, UCLA figures to be terrible. I wish we had never scheduled that series. UCLA is supposed to be OU's "marquee" game. But the opening game vs. Houston figures to be better.
OU opened at -11.5 vs Texas. It has been removed from the board. OU is still -11.5 at UCLA, and is now -15 vs. TCU.
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Thanks. How about the other part. If I bet on something when it is -20 and it moves wildly, say to -6 by game time, do I have -20 locked in or does everyone get -6?
I'm trying to snuff out the amount of power the oddsmakers have and what their penalties are for being way off at first.
If you bet at -20 you're locked at -20. Regardless of what the line does.
Oddsmakers are trying to set the line such that bets come in 50/50. Because while you're technically betting "against the house" since they have the money, the house can't lose when bets come in 50/50.
Generally lines are set as "-110", meaning you're betting 110 dollars to win 100. That extra 10% is called the "vig". As a result, you need to win your bets at >55% clip in order to beat the vig.
So if bets come in 50/50, say 100 bets for $100 on each side [200 total], the house collects $22K but only has to pay out $21K to the winners ($11K initial bets plus $10K winnings). If bets come in 90/10 under the same scenario but the 90% side wins, the house collects $22K but has to pay out $37.8K to the winners ($19.8K initial stake plus $18K winnings). Of course the flipside is if the 10% side wins, the house collects $22K but only pays out $4.2K.
Thus if it's 50/50, the house has ZERO risk. And sportsbooks would much prefer to be zero risk and be guaranteed money.
So when bets come in lopsided, the line moves to try to equalize the betting as close to 50/50 between the two sides. But they can't change the bet they offered you up front. They can only change what they offer the next guy at the window. Your bet is locked in as soon as you make it.
The penalty for the oddsmakers is that if they set their line wildly out of sync with bettor sentiment, their risk is more substantial the longer they wait to adjust. The sooner the adjust and get to 50/50, the better their risk profile becomes.
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OU opened at -11.5 vs Texas. It has been removed from the board. OU is still -11.5 at UCLA, and is now -15 vs. TCU.
The date was, IIRC, 19 March. 8 days ago.
I copied that -17 line right from the Betonline website, so I assume it must have been at -17 at some point.