CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: OrangeAfroMan on March 10, 2019, 08:41:22 PM
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An interesting year for the playoff, two other P5 teams left out, who went 10-1 (VA Tech and Oregon St). And lots of interplay between the teams, as UW beat Miami and Miami beat FSU, yet FSU wound up #2. How would it play out in a playoff???
1 Oklahoma vs 4 Washington
2 FSU vs 3 Miami
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#1 Oklahoma, 12-0, Big XII Champions
9th in scoring offense
5th in scoring defense
14th in strength of schedule
The Sooners began the year ranked #19. But after battling through 3 consecutive ranked teams (#11 Texas, at #2 KSU, #1 Nebraska) unscathed, OU hopped to #1. They also took care of things at #23 A&M and #8 KSU again in the BXIICG. They had 3 close calls, but handled the then #1 Huskers easily.
OU passed the ball a lot, due to an ordinary running game. RBs Griffin and Works both averaged under 4.5 ypc, but did score 23 TDs between them. QB Heupel was accurate (65% comp) despite tossing 15 INTs. He spread the ball out well, with 4 WRs gaining 500+ yds each (Savage, Fagan, Norman, Woolfork). It was hard to know who to key on.
Defensively, the Sooner defense was sound all around. They barely allows over 100 yds rushing per game thanks to LBs Calmus and Marshall, and just 170 through the air at under a 50% comp rate. 24 INTs helped a lot, with 5 going back for TDs.
WR Thatcher was a great KR and PR, with 2 TDs and OU had good punting. K Duncan made just 62.5% of his FGs, though.
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#2 FSU, 11-1, ACC Champions
5th in scoring offense
1st in scoring defense
11th strength of schedule
FSU spent all season in the top 10, peaking at #1 for one week. The Noles played 4 ranked teams, losing their #1 ranking at #7 Miami before winning at #21 NC State, #10 Clemson, and #4 Florida. FSU blew out the last three listed. FSU's only close call win was at GA Tech, besides the 3 point win at Miami.
FSU threw the ball around a lot, with QB Weinke winning the Heisman (33 TDs, 163 pass rating). His #1 target was WR Minnis (1300 yds, 11 TD) and 2 other WRs had 600+ yds (Bell, Boldin). The ground game was average, mostly used as a change-up, with RB Minor gaining 900+ yds.
The Noles defense was elite, shutting down the run (74 yds per game allowed) and holding opposing QBs under 50% comp rate. FSU picked off 19 passes, returning 3 for TDs. They did allow 200+ yds through the air, but opponents were playing catch-up. FSU's yards allowed per attempt were 3rd in the country.
The return game and punting were good/okay, but the kicking situation was unique. Three different kickers used throughout the year totaled a 14 for 24 total (58%).
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#3 Miami, 10-1, Big East Champions
3rd in scoring offense
7th in scoring defense
15th strength of schedule
The Hurricanes spent all season in the top 10. After a second-game loss at #15 Washington, they went on to beat the other two ranked opponents on the schedule: #1 FSU (close) and #2 VT (blowout). The Canes didn't have a close call besides the FSU win and held their last 3 opponents to single digits.
Miami's pro-set offense relied more on the pass than the run. Effective QB Dorsey (25 TD, 5 INT) had a very good rating and had two main targets in WRs Moss and Wayne (700+ yds each, 15 total TDs). RB Jackson just eclipsed 1000 yds and had 11 TDs, and the RB position was deep, with backups Portis and Davenport.
The defense was good, but not elite. Teams passed for 220 yds per game, but Miami picked off 23 passes, returning six for TDs. S Reed led the team with 8 INTs. Teams rushed for 112 yds per game, but at only 3.2 per carry thanks to LB Morgan.
The return game was special, led by Santana Moss' 4 punt return TDs. Daryl Jones' 27 yds per kick return was great, as was Capshaw's punting (43 yds per). K Sievers was average (65% FGs).
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#4 Washington, 10-1, Pac-10 Co-Champs
20th in scoring offense
46th in scoring defense
4th strength of schedule
UW began the year ranked 13th and jumped up in the rankings after beating #4 Miami in the second game of the year. But two weeks later, the Huskies suffered their lone loss at #20 Oregon by a TD. UW won their last 7 games, although only one vs a ranked team (#23 Oregon St). Washington had 7 wins by one score.
The offense was balanced, averaging 196 yds passing and 212 rushing per game. QB Tuiasosopo wasn't a good passer (14 TD, 11 INT) with a poor rating. His top two targets were WR Elstrom and TE Stevens (600+ yds each). RBs Alexis and Hurts each averaged 6+ yards per carry, but Tuiasosopo led the team in carries, with a poor 3.1 per carry average.
The Huskies' defense bent a lot, but was good enough to win games. They allowed a lot of passing yards (208 per game), but a low comp % (47%). Allowing 142 yds per game on the ground is bad, though. UW lacked the ball-hawking defensive backfields of the other teams in the playoff, picking off just 6 passes all season.
The KR game was good, the PR game was poor. K Anderson made 71% of his FGs and the punting avg was poor as well. The special teams weren't special.
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Award Winners involved:
QB Josh Heupel, Oklahoma - AP POY, Camp, All-American
LB Dan Morgan, Miami - Nagurski, Bednarik, Butkus, AA
QB Chris Weinke, FSU - Heisman, O'Brien, Unitas, Baugh
DE Jamal Reynolds, FSU - Lombardi, AA
HC Bob Stoops, Oklahoma - AP, AFCA, Robinson, Home Depot, Bryant, Camp Coach of the Year
WR Snoop Minnis, FSU - AA
OL Dominic Raiola, Nebraska - AA
AP Santana Moss, Miami - AA
LB Rocky Calmus, Oklahoma - AA
CB Tay Cody, FSU - AA
S Ed Reed, Miami - AA
CB J.T. Thatcher, Oklahoma - AA
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Who ya got?
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Canes over Sooners
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This is that UW team that made no sense. Shouldn't have been able to beat Miami. Shouldn't have been able to go 10-1. Bad defense, bad passing QB, no special skill position player. FSU/Miami would be a coin flip, and the winner would beat OU, imo. OU would destory UW...unless UW did what they did all season long, lol. I'll agree with you and go Canes over Sooners.
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This is a nice example of how a team can start 19th and end up at the top after the regular season.
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I will say, Oklahoma just seemed to have that *something* that year, that they probably would have beaten FSU/Miami anyway, as little sense as it would make. But I wouldn't pick it.
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My view on probabilities:
OU beats UW 9 times out of 10.
Miami and FSU split 50-50.
Ou beats either 55% of the time, which is barely an edge obviously, about a 2 point favorite.
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He was careful with the ball when OU actually faced FSU, but Heupel's 15 INTs scare me against Ed Reed, if they were to play Miami.
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This is a nice example of how a team can start 19th and end up at the top after the regular season.
Sure, just beat three top 11 teams in a row.
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It wouldn't have been the Wolverines.
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tough call between the top 3
I'll go with the Sooners
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I never understood the logic of ranking FSU over Miami and ranking Miami over Wash.
10-1 Wash beat 10-1 Miami H2H
10-1 Miami beat 10-1 FSU
Why wasn't Wash ranked #2 ?
The most annoying thing at the time was so many pundits arguing that Miami deserved to play in the NCG because Miami beat FSU H2H.
But I guess in a way it was like the Big Ten 2010 race. OSU, Wisc and MSU all finished 10-1, but since OSU and MSU did not play H2H, they just let the BCS rankings decide the champion, even though MSU beat Wisc and Wisc beat OSU.
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I never understood the logic of ranking FSU over Miami and ranking Miami over Wash.
10-1 Wash beat 10-1 Miami H2H
10-1 Miami beat 10-1 FSU
Why wasn't Wash ranked #2 ?
The most annoying thing at the time was so many pundits arguing that Miami deserved to play in the NCG because Miami beat FSU H2H.
But I guess in a way it was like the Big Ten 2010 race. OSU, Wisc and MSU all finished 10-1, but since OSU and MSU did not play H2H, they just let the BCS rankings decide the champion, even though MSU beat Wisc and Wisc beat OSU.
Yeah, and at the time I thought it was robbery. But, I believe if they played at the end, Miami would destroy them.
It's like 2002 to me. USC would have rolled over anyone in their path.
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Objectively, Washington had the worst loss, so that’s the rationale. The computers note this more than the voters, who are obsessed with h2h. FSU’s loss was by 3 on the road, which can be viewed as a tie, objectively.
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Missed this. I would have gone with Oklahoma, but none of these four would have surprised me.
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Awesome
so it's a tie!!!!
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Thank you for the tiebreaking vote!