CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Cincydawg on March 01, 2019, 01:18:52 PM
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And best, again, realistically, however you define that.
I was looking at the Wisconsin slate, bear with me if I'm "wrong":
@USF
CMU
Michigan
NW
Kent State
MSU
@Illinois
@OSU
Iowa
@Nebraska
Purdue
@Minnesota
Ouch. Is 3-9 a realistic possibility?
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The worst that OSU could realistically do is 0-12, while their best possible record is 15-0. The most likely finish resides somewhere in between.
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Losing the 4 killer road games (OSU, UM, UW, NW) is obvious. Losing at home to PSU. MSU is probably underdogs in those 5 anyway, so basically, start by losing all the games you should.
Am I overly optimistic in thinking they shouldn't lose more than 1 other (Tulsa, WMU, ASU, Indiana, Illinois, @Rutgers, Maryland)? Going even 5-2 through those would raise serious questions with where the program is, obviously barring another year of major health issues, but we have to be due for good luck there after how bad last year was (losing starting QB, starting RB, both starting WRs, best CB). So maybe 6-6?
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if the O-line and D-line don't improve the Huskers could lose on the road to Colorado, Illinois, Minnesoota, Purdue, & Maryland
home losses would be N. Illinois, Ohio St., Northwestern, Indiana, Wisconsin, & Iowa
Pretty sure the Husker win the home opener vs South Alabama
Worst record? 1-11
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Looking at the Wisconsin slate, sure, with a new quarterback and some bad luck, could it be 3-9? Realistically, probably not. 5-7 is probably worst case. Even traveling, I don't think USF is a big threat, and similarly Purdue at home probably isn't, either. Could those upsets happen? Sure, but would likely be offset by another win somewhere else. I think 5-7 is the realistic floor.
Possible to go lower? There's always a chance. Realistically, probably not.
@USF (probably not)
CMU
Michigan
NW
Kent State
MSU
@Illinois
@OSU
Iowa
@Nebraska
Purdue (probably a stretch)
@Minnesota
Ouch. Is 3-9 a realistic possibility?
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5-7
2 cupcake wins
then of weak pairs of teams, we'd split at worst (Tenn/USCe, Vandy/Miz)
FSU/Miami - I'd be surprised if we lost to either, stunned if to both
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- @Nevada
- vVandy
- vTCU
- bye
- vMinnesota
- @PSU
- vMaryland
- @Iowa
- vIllinois
- vNebraska
- @Northwestern
- bye
- @Wisconsin
- vIndiana
So 7 home and only 5 away.
For the away, about the only game I can say is truly an "expected" win is Nevada. And even that's dicey, given that we'll have a lot of turnover and it's the first game of the season. That said, with this team I have to think that the worst road schedule, even with a possible loss at Nevada, is 1-4.
Home, I see no less than 3 wins, even if everything goes horribly.
So worst case, if the wheels fall off this team like we though they might do at the beginning of the 2018 season? 4-8.
Now, that's assuming all the newcomers and improved recruiting doesn't pan out.
If it *does* pan out? 3-2 on the road is reasonable (can't imagine we win @PSU and do better than 2-1 against IA/NU/UW). Home, I can't frankly see a game there that we can't win, but let's assume we lose one because statistics are statistics. So 6-1 at home. 9-3 overall. That's best case.
Huge range for this team because our best talent is all young.
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It's interesting, I think, I note how wide a range some of these teams have, between "if everything goes right pretty much" to the reverse of that.
USUALLY, the final result will be 1-2 games around the midpoint, we don't know which, and we know a couple of unexpected upsets may feature.
Florida of course had an "ETGW" season two years ago and then the reverse of that last year (close to it).
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Let's see, the worst OSU has ever done is seven losses, and that has only happened twice; 1897 and 2011. Each of those coaches were one and done.
So if Day were to be a colossally bad hire and match that benchmark of ineptitude, he'd have to lose to Penn St, Michigan and Michigan St of course. He'd also have to get swept in the crossover games; Nebraska, Wisconsin and Northwestern. Then on top of all that he'd still have to drop a game to a Maryland or an Indiana, or as poetic justice would have it Luke Fickel's Bearcats. He'd have to go 1-2 in those three games in order to set a new low bar for future first year coaches to avoid limboing beneath at 8 losses.
There's pretty much zero chance that they barf up a game against Florida Atlantic, Miami Ohio or Rutgers. If they played each team a hundred times, they'd probably go 299-1 in that series.
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And best, again, realistically, however you define that.
I was looking at the Wisconsin slate, bear with me if I'm "wrong":
@USF
CMU
Michigan
NW
Kent State
MSU
@Illinois
@OSU
Iowa
@Nebraska
Purdue
@Minnesota
Ouch. Is 3-9 a realistic possibility?
@Illinois is not a certain win. Road games are hard. I'd say 2-10 is the floor. 10-2 is probably the ceiling.