CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => SEC => Topic started by: Cincydawg on December 28, 2018, 12:14:34 PM
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How often will each program win the SEC East (or West)?
My GUESS:
UGA 6
Florida 3
Tennessee 1
Who else has a shot? Mizzou has won it twice recently. USCe has a shot at one. Anyone else?
Alabama 6
LSU 2
A&M 2
The key for Bama is obvious, and perhaps 6 is too many, but I'd like to sneak one Auburn into the mix.
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First, it's nice to see that you're excited about how good UGA is at the moment.
Secondly, whooooaaaa, just wait a minute.
Even at the height of it's power, Florida in the 90s only won 7 out of 10 East titles. Since then, the most has been 6 out of 10 under Saban for the West. So while UGA is very talented and seems to have a great HC in place, your prediction of 6 East titles in the next 10 years is saying UGA is going to be as good as Spurrier-at-Florida and Saban-at-Bama good.
That's awfully optimistic.
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Even in Florida's awful downturn, the Gators have 2 East titles since 2013, same as UGA.
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Mizzou also has two. The recruiting thing stands out for me. UGA has not lost to an SEC East team in a while, and the margins have tended not to be close.
Things could go sour, somehow. Now they can lose a key game to Florida and not win the East.
Who else seems likely to beat them?
Ten years is a long time.
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I guess I'm the only one to suggest an opinion. Maybe I am way too optimistic here, it does sound that way.
I think we can eliminate Vandy. UK almost made it this year, but that was a singular year for them. South Carolina? They might make one year, but I'd say the chances are not good for that, same for Mizzou, who has won it twice. Maybe all of those teams might win it once in a decade. Maybe. Then we have Tennessee. One might think they could get "back" to the point of winning 1 or 2 titles in a decade, so there is that. Florida finished 10-3, but the 3 losses were all to SEC E teams. They seem to be ahead of schedule though and it's not beyond the Pale to think they could win it 2-5 times.
So, we have "the field" with maybe 1 win, Tennessee with 1-2 wins, Florida with 2-3 wins, maybe 4. Taking the midpoints of that, we add it up to 4 plus titles by "others", call it 5.
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i'd venture uf and uga will split 7 between them. lets say 4 uga, 3 uf. then i suspect tenn will be back competing at least by mid decade, and i can see them winning a couple. with the odd usc/mizz winning the final one.
in west, provided saban is here for most of the decade, i think bama takes 5-6. with au/lsu/aTm splitting the rest.
really, though, looking past 2-3 years is a crap shoot. saban might eb gone by then. who knows if gus finally gets the can. ogre might be in jail for eating someone.
i think pruitt will turn tenn around, but it's gonna be a short lease with uga on fire and uf looking to return. speaking of uf, mullen has a big dawg to overcome, and if he can't i think uf will also move along fairly quickly. i don't see kerby going anywhere unless the unthinkable happens at uga.
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The last SEC East team to beat UGA was Florida, in 2016. I agree projecting a decade is mostly guessing.
IN 2008, how might we have guessed?
Few would have seen Bama's dominance.
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before 08, i might have given bama/lsu/au all odds on 3 each. most bama fans, including me, thought saban would bring us back to relevance, but not anywhere like this dominance. but i fully expected to compete and win sec titles regularly, which also means competing for national titles fairly regularly.
after 2010 or 2011, i think many predicted bama to win 5-6-7 of the next 10. still a couple years left, but bama is at 4 during those years, so its a real possibility.
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Yeah, I think I would have called out the usual suspects in 2008 based on the previous decade and been largely wrong.
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The last SEC East team to beat UGA was Florida, in 2016. I agree projecting a decade is mostly guessing.
IN 2008, how might we have guessed?
Few would have seen Bama's dominance.
I was more optimistic about Bama in 2008 than you are about UGA now. I was thinking NCs, not just SEC West. In May of 2008, I took a tour of the Waterford Crystal Factory in Waterford, Ireland. Tour ends with a Demo/Q&A session with a Master Engraver. I told the ME that he could go ahead and prepare several of those NC trophies for Alabama because he would be getting orders for them very soon.