CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 27, 2018, 11:45:23 AM
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It was pointed out to me last week that there probably will not be any 5-7 waivers this year so it appears that the season is over for Maryland and Indiana (both 5-7) along with UNL and Illinois (both 4-8) and RU (1-11).
As I see it, there are three possibilities:
- Ohio State wins B1GCG, goes to CFP.
- Ohio State wins B1GCG, goes to RoseBowl.
- Northwestern wins B1GCG, goes to RoseBowl.
Scenario #1:
- 12-1 Ohio State: CFP (Orange?)
- 10-2 Michigan: Rose
- 9-3 Penn State: Citrus?
- 8-4 Iowa: ?
- 8-5 Northwestern: ?
- 7-5 Wisconsin: ?
- 7-5 Michigan State: ?
- 6-6 Purdue: ?
- 6-6 Minnesota: ?
Scenario #2:
- 12-1 Ohio State: Rose
- 10-2 Michigan: Other NY6
- 9-3 Penn State: Citrus
- 8-4 Iowa: ?
- 8-5 Northwestern: ?
- 7-5 Wisconsin: ?
- 7-5 Michigan State: ?
- 6-6 Purdue: ?
- 6-6 Minnesota: ?
Scenario #3:
- 11-2 Ohio State: Other NY6
- 10-2 Michigan: Other NY6? (is this possible?, can the B1G get three NY6 bowls?)
- 9-3 Penn State: Citrus
- 9-4 Northwestern: Rose
- 8-4 Iowa: ?
- 7-5 Wisconsin: ?
- 7-5 Michigan State: ?
- 6-6 Purdue: ?
- 6-6 Minnesota: ?
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The other wildcard is could PSU make it to a commitee bowl like the Fiesta or Peach.
But I am guessing PSU won't make the cut and will slide into the Citrus instead.
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I believe the rule is 5 teams in 6 years, and no back to back, so here are the teams who have already gone, among the 6 teams in consideration with a 2017 participant in red. I'm removing the five 5-7 or worse teams; also Michigan and Ohio State, who are locks for NY6; and Penn State who will either be NY6, or a lock for the Citrus if not, no way they take anyone else if they have the option.
TIER 1
CITRUS: Minnesota
OUTBACK: Iowa, Northwestern, Wisconsin
HOLIDAY: Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin
TIER 2
GATOR (most likely not Music City): Iowa
TIER 3
PINSTRIPE: Iowa, Northwestern
REDBOX: Purdue
The Quick Lane Bowl becomes possible if Penn State falls to the Citrus. The problem is that beyond Penn State being a clear top choice for the Citrus Bowl, there is no obvious pecking order. Iowa is 8-4, Northwestern is 8-5 (for purposes of this, everything changes if Northwestern wins and gets the Rose Bowl), MSU and Wisconsin are 7-5, Purdue and Minnesota are 6-6.
There used to be a rule that 6-6 teams had to go last, meaning those two teams would fill out Tier 3, and it would be Purdue to the Pinstripe and Minnesota to the Redbox to avoid repeats. Not sure if that's still the rule. That leaves MSU, Iowa, UW and NW for the top 4. That would all but guarantee MSU the Outback to avoid repeats, since it's possible. So Iowa would avoid the Gator and Wisconsin would avoid the Holiday. My guess is Northwestern's small fan base gets trumped here, and Wisconsin goes to the Citrus, Iowa to the Holiday and Northwestern to the Gator.
This all gets thrown off if Northwestern wins, or Penn State doesn't get a NY6 bid.
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The other wildcard is could PSU make it to a commitee bowl like the Fiesta or Peach.
But I am guessing PSU won't make the cut and will slide into the Citrus instead.
We'll see what the CFP rankings look like tonight but this looks like a slim possibility.
Do I have this right?
- There are six "NY6" or "committee" bowls.
- Thus there are six high end bowls with 12 slots available to fill them.
Next, the five P5 Champions and the highest ranked G5 Champion are all guaranteed slots so that takes six leaving six "at-large" slots.
The 12 slots (using AP rankings because the CFP isn't out yet):
- Bama (regardless of SECCG outcome)
- Clemson (regardless of ACCCG outcome)
- Notre Dame
- Georgia (regardless of SECCG outcome)
- Oklahoma (regardless of B12CG outcome)
- Ohio State (regardless of B1GCG outcome)
- UCF (or other G5 Champion)
- Michigan
- Washington (or Utah depending on B12CG outcome)
- Florida
- LSU
- WSU
Penn State might end up ranked ahead of WSU which would theoretically put them in but there is another possibility that would keep them out. If a lower ranked team wins a P5CG that would steal a slot, ie:
- If Pitt beats Clemson then both Pitt and Clemson would go ahead of PSU.
- If Northwestern beats Ohio State then both NU and tOSU would go ahead of PSU.
- If Texas beats Oklahoma then both TX and OU would go ahead of PSU.
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The B1G got 3 NYD6 bowls last year, and it got 4 (including the playoff for OSU) the prior year. I don't see why it couldn't get 3 this year. Need PSU to get to #11, I believe.
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Hmmm...
The fact that NW and Iowa have been to the outback already may mean that NW or Iowa could get bumped up to the Citrus and PSU will slide to the Outback instead. And whoever does not go to the Citrus, NW or Iowa, will go to the Holiday.
Since NW won the West and beat Iowa H2H, you would think NW would go to the Citrus over Iowa.
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Hmmm...
The fact that NW and Iowa have been to the outback already may mean that NW or Iowa could get bumped up to the Citrus and PSU will slide to the Outback instead. And whoever does not go to the Citrus, NW or Iowa, will go to the Holiday.
Since NW won the West and beat Iowa H2H, you would think NW would go to the Citrus over Iowa.
I thought about that, but I still don't see it. The Citrus seems to be a step up from the others, and Penn State will be likely a top 12-15 team, while the other would be unranked. The only way I'd see that is if they viewed the drop from PSU to Iowa/NW as smaller than the drop from Iowa/NW to MSU (who would be almost assured of the Outback in that scenario). I doubt they do, particularly factoring in the PSU helmet.
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Yup. There will be no 5-7 teams that will go bowling this year.
There are 78 bowl spots total and 81 teams are already eligible, with potentially 2 more teams that could become eligible this this week. This probably means the MAC and Sunbelt will have some 6-6 or even 7-5 teams sitting at home during bowl season.
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If oklahoma makes the playoffs over OSU, that could bump PSU out of a NY6 bowl.
If Oklahoma makes the playoffs, then Big 12 gets to send another team to the Sugar Bowl, probably Texas. That would be enough to bump PSU down.
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Going to a major bowl used to be a thing. Now going to an NY6 bowl is a consolation prize that means "Well, here ya go, but you didn't make the real games.". At least there are more of them in effect. The Citrus has for a long time been a kind of tweener. I guess it still is.
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If oklahoma makes the playoffs over OSU, that could bump PSU out of a NY6 bowl.
If Oklahoma makes the playoffs, then Big 12 gets to send another team to the Sugar Bowl, probably Texas. That would be enough to bump PSU down.
I dunno, I could see the NYD6 wanting 3 B1G teams, like last year when OSU, PSU and UW made it. Only this year you take out UW and add a helmet in UM. If NU beats OSU, then NU gets the Rose and OSU and UM are almost certain to make the NYD6.
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Texas travels well and they haven't been in one of the big bowl games in years. They'll be attractive.
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Texas travels well and they haven't been in one of the big bowl games in years. They'll be attractive.
If they are in the top 12, yes they would be.
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correct... More of a comparative statement regarding teams like PSU. They're on pare when it comes to fans, travel, or helmet status.
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It would be easier to get Texas fans to the Sugar to play an SEC foe than it would be to get PSU fans to Tempe again - especially if it's to play UCF or some such. UCF was in the Peach last year so that's not happening. If PSU got an Orange Bowl they would probably fill it up??
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If oklahoma makes the playoffs over OSU, that could bump PSU out of a NY6 bowl.
If Oklahoma makes the playoffs, then Big 12 gets to send another team to the Sugar Bowl, probably Texas. That would be enough to bump PSU down.
If you are correct, and I'll assume that you are, then it seems to me that PSU is probably screwed either way:
- If Texas wins: Texas automatically gets a NY6 bowl as a P5 Champion and Oklahoma at 11-2 would still beat out PSU at 9-3.
- If Oklahoma wins: Oklahoma most likely gets the last CFP berth and, per your explanation, Texas gets to be their replacement in the Sugar Bowl.
So if this is correct then I can only see two ways for PSU to get a NY6 bowl:
- Georgia and Oklahoma both win, the CFP takes 12-1 Bama over 12-1 Oklahoma. Oklahoma goes to the Sugar Bowl and PSU obviously finishes ahead of Texas.
- Oklahoma and Ohio State both win and the CFP takes 12-1 tOSU over 12-1 Oklahoma. Oklahoma goes to the Sugar Bowl and PSU obviously finishes ahead of Texas.
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https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/01/college-football-bowl-ties-affiliations-tie-ins-college-football-playoff-conference-2018-2019
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Big Ten Bowl Ties, Affiliations
A Big Ten team will be in the Rose Bowl – it’ll be the champion if not in the College Football Playoff. There can’t be a Big Ten team this year in the Sugar Bowl.
College Football Playoff Semifinal: If Selected
1. Rose Bowl vs. Pac-12
2. Citrus Bowl vs. ACC or SEC
– Agreement for Citrus is for five different teams in six years, so no Minnesota or Michigan, if possible.
3. Outback Bowl vs. SEC
– Agreement is for five different teams in six years, so no Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan or Northwestern, if possible.
4. San Diego Country Credit Union Holiday Bowl vs. Pac-12
– Agreement is for five different teams in six years, so no Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin or Michigan State, if possible.
5. TaxSlayer Bowl vs. SEC OR
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl vs. SEC
– ACC and Big Ten combine in the Music City and TaxSlayer, with each getting three appearances in six years. The Big Ten played in TaxSlayer in 2015 and the Music City in 2016 and 2017. It’s almost certainly going to be in the TaxSlayer, but no Penn State or Iowa, if possible.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl vs. ACC
– It’s not official, but the bowl would prefer to have eight different teams in eight years, so no Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State or Indiana, if possible.
Redbox Bowl vs. Pac-12
– Agreement is for five different teams in six years, so no Purdue, Indiana, Maryland or Nebraska, if possible.
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It would be easier to get Texas fans to the Sugar to play an SEC foe than it would be to get PSU fans to Tempe again - especially if it's to play UCF or some such. UCF was in the Peach last year so that's not happening. If PSU got an Orange Bowl they would probably fill it up??
UCF will go to the Fiesta if they beat Memphis. Big if with Milton out. Won by just one (31-30) in the regular season with him. Orange Bowl is CFP semifinal so no PSU.
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https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/01/college-football-bowl-ties-affiliations-tie-ins-college-football-playoff-conference-2018-2019
That was helpful, thank you. It confirms what @LittlePig (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1540) said. Per CFN, the Rose will be B1G/PAC and the Sugar will be B12/SEC no matter what.
WRT the PAC this is all pretty irrelevant because the the P12CG winner goes to the Rose and the P12CG loser does not get a NY6 bowl and that is that.
WRT the SEC this is all pretty irrelevant because the SEC will have plenty of credible at-large teams even if they get two in the CFP.
WRT the B1G this is all pretty irrelevant because the B1G will have plenty of credible at-large teams even if the Buckeyes make the CFP.
That leaves the B12:
Current rankings of B12 teams:
- #5, 11-1 Oklahoma
- #14, 9-3 Texas
- #16, 8-3 WVU
- #23, 7-4 ISU
With a B12CG win over #5 OU, the Longhorns would obviously jump #12 Penn State but that is completely irrelevant because with the win the Longhorns would get an auto-bid as B12 Champions. Penn State's problem is that they have no chance of passing Oklahoma even if the Sooners lose the B12CG.
Nationally, Northwestern and Pitt are the major potential bid thieves. Either of them winning would be problematic for "bubble" teams Florida, LSU, and Penn State.
Assuming that all of the favorites win (Bama>UGA, Clemson>Pitt, OU>TX, tOSU>NU, UCF>whatever cream-puff they are playing, UW>Utah), I'm pretty sure that the CFP/NY6 Bowls would be as follows:
- CFP Semi-Final #1 Orange: #1 Bama vs #4 Oklahoma
- CFP Semi-Final #2 Cotton: #2 Clemson vs #3 Notre Dame
- Rose: Ohio State vs Washington
- Sugar: Texas vs Georgia
- Peach: Michigan vs LSU?^
- Fiesta: UCF vs Florida?^
^Note that in this scenario the last four teams are LSU, Florida, UCF, and Michigan. They obviously are not going to have two SEC teams that already played each other play in a bowl so Michigan would get either LSU or Florida with the other SEC team getting UCF. Also, UCF played in the Peach Bowl last year so if they go again this year, it would have to be to the Fiesta (at least as I understand all of this).
To borrow basketball lingo, Penn State would be the "next team out", but it isn't easy to concoct a scenario that gets them in. Texas is the "bid thief" that keeps PSU out but the only way to exclude the Longhorns (see above) is for OU to win the B12 but miss the playoff. I can only possibly see that if:
- Bama loses to UGA and gets a CFP bid anyway, or
- Ohio State just blows the doors off of Northwestern and passes OU for the #4 spot in the CFP.
The last teams in, in order, in this scenario are:
Thus, any additional bid-thieves would cost those teams NY6 bowl bids. Ie:
- If Northwestern beats Ohio State the Wildcats would get an auto-bid but the 11-2 Buckeyes would still be ahead of 10-2 Michigan, 9-3 Florida, and 9-3 LSU so one of them (probably LSU) would get knocked out.
- If Pitt beats Clemson the Panthers would get an auto-bid but the 12-1 Tigers would still be ahead of M/UF/LSU so one of them (probably LSU) would get knocked out.
If Northwestern and Pitt both win then LSU and Florida would probably both be knocked out. In that scenario (assuming the rest of the favorites all win):
- CFP Semi-Final #1, Orange: #1 Bama vs #4 Oklahoma
- CFP Semi-Final #2, Cotton: #2 Notre Dame vs #3 Clemson
- Rose: Northwestern vs Washington
- Sugar: Texas vs Georgia
- Peach: Pitt vs Ohio State^
- Fiesta: UCF vs Michigan^
^Note that in this scenario the last four teams are tOSU, M, UCF, and Pitt. They obviously are not going to have two B1G teams that already played each other play in a bowl so Pitt would get either tOSU or Michigan with the other B1G team getting UCF. Also, UCF played in the Peach Bowl last year so if they go again this year, it would have to be to the Fiesta (at least as I understand all of this).
In the event that Bama loses but gets into the CFP ahead of Oklahoma and Ohio State anyway and PSU gets a NY6 berth, here is what I would assume (assuming all other favorites win):
- CFP Semi-Final #1, Orange: #1 Clemson vs #4 Bama
- CFP Semi-Final #2, Cotton: #2 Notre Dame vs #3 Georgia
- Rose: Ohio State vs Washington
- Sugar: Oklahoma vs Florida
- Peach: LSU vs PSU^
- Fiesta: UCF vs Michigan^
^Note that in this scenario the last four teams are PSU, M, UCF, and LSU. They obviously are not going to have two B1G teams that already played each other play in a bowl so LSU would get either PSU or M with the other B1G team getting UCF. Also, UCF played in the Peach Bowl last year so if they go again this year, it would have to be to the Fiesta (at least as I understand all of this).
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Wow, quite some analysis, and looks good to me.
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UCF will go to the Fiesta if they beat Memphis. Big if with Milton out. Won by just one (31-30) in the regular season with him. Orange Bowl is CFP semifinal so no PSU.
FWIW: the ranked G5 teams and who they are playing this weekend:
- #6 UCF vs nr 8-4 Memphis
- #22 Boise State vs #25 Fresno State
Even if Memphis wins they aren't going to jump the Boise/Fresno winner so the G5 team in the NY6 Bowls will be one of those three. It matters which for placement because they will avoid sending UCF to the Peach Bowl if possible since they went last year. With Boise or Fresno they would have no such limitation but it might not matter because it would obviously be preferable to send either of those teams to Arizona for the Fiesta Bowl rather than all the way across the country to Georgia for the Peach Bowl. Thus, the G5 rep is pretty much a lock for the Fiesta.
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In order for Ohio State to make the CFP, obviously Ohio Sate has to win and I think Bama has to win then either:
- Oklahoma loses to Texas, or
- Ohio State's win over #21 Northwestern is VASTLY more impressive than Oklahoma's win over #14 Texas.
The second of those two would be VERY difficult to pull off. Back in 2014 Ohio State's 59-0 win over Wisconsin helped propel the Buckeyes into the playoff but I think it is a lot less likely this time for three reasons:
First, that Wisconsin was 10-2 and ranked #13 going into that game. This time the Buckeye's opponent will be an 8-4 team that is barely ranked.
Second, winning a CG by that margin was unprecedented and it probably isn't going to happen again just a few years later.
Third, last time, while Ohio State was pulverizing #13 Wisconsin the other contenders were playing #9 and an unranked team so the Buckeye's win was over a similar (to Baylor) and much higher ranked (than TCU) opponent. This time the B12 contender has the much higher ranked opponent.
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What would be some interesting bowl matchups you'd like to watch independent of whether they are likely?
Penn State - LSU? Michigan - Florida? Switch pairings? Washington - Ohio State? Eh. Syracuse - PSU? Mebbe.
OU - Ohio State would be entertaining, and probably record setting.
UCF - Michigan would have been interesting had the QB stayed healthy.
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OU - Ohio State would be entertaining, and probably record setting.
The O/U would be north of 125.
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UCF will go to the Fiesta if they beat Memphis. Big if with Milton out. Won by just one (31-30) in the regular season with him. Orange Bowl is CFP semifinal so no PSU.
Ah, OK. I didn't realize the OB was a semi.
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So, the Sugar is obligated to take a XII team, even if they aren't in the Top-12?
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So, the Sugar is obligated to take a XII team, even if they aren't in the Top-12?
I read that CFN link that was posted earlier and at least according to that, yes. Same goes for an SEC team in the Sugar and the B1G and PAC teams in the Rose.
It doesn't matter with the other conferences because:
- PAC isn't getting into the CFP so their Champion will be in the Rose.
- B1G will have an available team in the top-12 (Michigan) even if tOSU goes to the CFP.
- SEC will have an available team in the top-12 (Florida) even if both Bama and UGA go to the CFP.
It matters in the B12 because if OU makes the CFP cut, the next highest ranked B12 team will be either Texas (after losing the B12CG) or WVU and both would be outside of the top-12.