CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => SEC => Topic started by: bamajoe on September 13, 2017, 04:51:37 PM
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Why is this game being ignored? I'm not convinced that this game is less important than Tennessee-Florida. Both would be underdogs if they traveled to Starkville. I think LSU is slightly better than State but the home field makes this a toss up.
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I know nuthin' of value about Msst this year.... what is their strength, Joe? Do you really think they're better than UTk and/or UF? can you give an example?
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Their strength is QB Nick Fitzgerald. Good runner, can be a good passer in the right circumstances. I haven't watched any of their games because their schedule has been worse than ours so far, so I don't know much else of value either. There's reason to think their defensive front is very good.
The main reason I have a hard time taking this game seriously is LSU has lost this game twice in the last 25 years. And really, if instant replay had been a thing in 1999, LSU would've won that one also. The Fighting Daks whacked us in 2014, with a senior laden team and us with a(nother) very young team. That's basically it for the entire span of my life I've paid attention to LSU football. I've seen years where LSU played like utter turd, and Clanga was determined to play worse. I've seen games where Moo State was legitimately the better team, and we still found ways to win. Mostly I've seen an uncanny uniformity between the ratio of talent and wins in this series. Law of averages almost demands that the less talented team win sometime....in this series, they just haven't.
So in 2014 when they won, it was very surreal. It's like it didn't register. It had been a decade and a half since we'd seen it, and nearly a decade before THAT. And like I said, under today's replay rules, LSU would've won the '99 game as well. I don't know anybody who really cared. We get mad and call for the coach's head when we lose to Florida, Alabama, Ole Miss, heck, even Arkansas sometimes. There wasn't even any anger attached to losing to Hail Steak. More like "Huh. Well I'll be. Okay, what's on next?"
Of course this is a terrible reason to assume anything about THIS year. And in my brain, I don't. But honestly, LSU fans have forgotten how to worry about this game. It's just not in us.
I really do suspect LSU is the better team and will win an ugly game. I predict Clanga will land some early shots, our defense will adjust, Fitzgerald will stay penned up and won't be able to win the game from the pocket. Our offense will struggle against their front, but will eventually do just enough. We're favored by 7, and that sounds about right to me.
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i really haven't paid attention since Joe Lee Dunn's 44/46 hybrid Defense prowled about. they were vicious, and I've always had deep respect for a 44 and a 46... it was hybrid because of the size/speed of the outside LB's who could easily have been considered a DB... it allowed a shift that resembled a strong/weak side 34, a up-n-up 44, a 46, or a nickel depending on how they adjusted. Jackie Sherrill was a good HC and drug those fellas out of the trench of the SEC West abyss 'of that era'... between Sherrill's stoic personality, and joe lee dunn's sockless antics, i really enjoyed watching them play. since then, i've paid little to no attention unless they were playing someone i did give a hoot about.
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Honestly, that's how we feel about 'em too. And we're in the same division.
I can't explain it, but they are just a black hole for our fan base's interest.
I'd guess if they started beating us with some regularity that would probably change.
Yes, I realize I'm jinxing the hell out of this.
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The reason I believe either Florida or Tennessee would be underdogs at Starkville is because simply Miss State has played better this year than both Florida and Tennessee. I know State's competition has been less but they have actually executed on both sides of the ball. Florida was awful against Michigan and almost always lose for some reason when they play in Mississippi. Tennessee gave up 600 yards on the ground against Georgia Tech and I don't think Tennessee could stop Fitzgerald. I didn't say State had a better team but they have an experienced and effective qb. Neither Tennessee or Florida has shown much so far.
I think LSU will have a hard time against State. Fitzgerald will be hard for LSU and all their inexperienced freshmen to contain. I don't think this is a typical LSU team. I don't like LSU'S depth and experience and you aren't going to win big with Etling at QB. This is a close game going deep into the 4th quarter.
Maybe I'm beau coup dinky dau.
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LOLZ.
LSU has won with much, much, much worse QBs than Etling. A lot.
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wel, one thing has happened... now i feel the need to watch MissSt (love how that rolls off the tongue... "misssssed")...
in all seriousness, I don't doubt you, Joe, of all people. And it has my attention now... I reckon i need to study up on them.
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UGA plays MSU next week in Athens, so this is of interest to Dawg fans (the real ones).
UGA also plays at LSU next year. :86:
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After seeking wisdom from what few Steak fans I could find, here's what I believe will be the crucial matchup: MSU's defensive front vs. LSU's OL. We are thin there, so we can't afford injuries. There is also some youth there, so how will they stand up to a stout front? If LSU can't answer that positively, it'll be a long day for the Tigers. If they can, LSU probably wins and covers.
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As to the OP, this game is overlooked because, unlike TN/Fla, it has no impact on the division. Ergo, nobody cares.
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Really? If LSU loses it would have no effect on the League? I heartily disagree. If LSU loses it would have a significant effect as they would be a game behind Alabama and Auburn already and would probably be eliminated from any chance to play in the play offs.
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If LSU wins or loses it has no bearing on the division winner. Everyone knows that, though it's adorable that you pretend to miss the point
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dayum.... time to watch Miss St a LOT more often. that was stupid...
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If LSU wins or loses it has no bearing on the division winner. Everyone knows that, though it's adorable that you pretend to miss the point
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Your hypothetical scenarios are mathematically valid and duly noted. They still have nothing to do with the real world.
Alabama is winning this division, and will continue to win it for the foreseeable future. Everybody else is playing for second place.
MSU is not going to beat Alabama. They are not going to go 7-1 either. They are a good team, but not as good as LSU made them look. LSU is just that bad at the moment. Certainly were last night, at any rate.
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That was an odd game for LSU. We lose sometimes, more now than a few years ago, but it's few and far between that we get whipped like that. Only games that come to mind are 2008 Florida and 2014 Auburn. I guess a couple of games in 2015 at the end when Miles was trying to survive Alleva's attempted coup. Out of all of them, I never remember an LSU team being intimidated like that. They never came out of halftime. Those kids wanted to get on the bus and go home starting the 3rd quarter, and they never believed they could win. I've seen that body language on a lot of opposing sidelines, never ours.
I wasn't a big fan of giving Orgeron the keys to the kingdom, but since we did, I figured one major plus would be the intensity of the team. theumrebel (APB on that guy, btw) used to tell me that when O coached Ole Miss, the only great thing about him was his ability to motivate. How when you listened to his pregame or halftime speeches, you would be ready to run your head through a tree trunk for him. I saw none of that last night. If he can't get the team fired up, I'm not sure he's got a lot of value for LSU and our particular situation.
This is probably the youngest team we've ever had, younger than 2010 even, but I can only chalk so much of what I saw last night up to youth and injury. A fair bit of that was flat bad coaching. And frankly, dealing with youth is the gig here. Since the NFL changed the rookie contracts, players have left LSU asap at a record pace. If anyone is waiting on a relatively jr/sr-heavy team like 2007, that probably isn't going to happen here anymore. You wanna win, you're gonna have to do it with youth.
How the team responds will be not just key for the season, but telling for O's suitability for a job like this.
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Has any school lost more early departures then LSU over the past 4-5 years? It's tough to overcome and it's why they are so young.
Coach O has probably the best set of coordinators in college football right now. LSU will be fine in the future.
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When making definitive statements I usually either attach qualifiers or discuss the possibilities in which they may not come to pass, no matter how unlikely they are perceived to be.
I noted Alabama is a heavy favorite again to win the SEC, in part because the SEC appears to be down, again, to me anyway. I don't know who the second best team is, and it probably doesn't matter in truth, but I'd guess either MSU or UGA at this point. Maybe the CG should be for second place anyway.
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If LSU wins or loses it has no bearing on the division winner. Everyone knows that, though it's adorable that you pretend to miss the point
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Has any school lost more early departures then LSU over the past 4-5 years? It's tough to overcome and it's why they are so young.
Coach O has probably the best set of coordinators in college football right now. LSU will be fine in the future.
I don't know. Never seen any comparison amongst schools. I do know that since the NFL made it to where you have to get past your rookie contract to really make bank every NFL caliber kid we've got has left asap (2011 or 2012, I'm thinking? Not sure). Since then we've been the youngest team in the west every single year (a time or two, in the entire conference, though Tennessee has usually been younger than us over that span), going by starting rosters and officially listed two-deeps. The exception was last year, 2016, when Miles made a great effort to keep quite a number of eligible jumpers and succeeded. There was finally experience and more depth so that excuse wasn't there. When we started 2-2, he was fired.
As for the coordinators, we'll see. I'm a big believer in "fit" when it comes to coaching. Almost no coach is a panacea for whatever ails you. Bill Snyder is a damn purple wizard, I love everything about him as a coach, but that doesn't mean he'd succeed at a place like Ohio State or Texas, etc. He's really good at excelling in the natural circumstances KSU exists in. There's no shortage of examples of guys who are really good in one place and then find, for various reasons, they aren't suited for other places.
Aranda looked like a genius at Wisconsin, where, if I'm not mistaken, guys tend to stick it out and you wind up with your fair share of upper-classmen with time and experience in the program and the game. Last year's D at LSU had a decent amount of experience, by our standards anyway, and by the middle of the season had really picked up on what Aranda wanted from them, and they were elite. But we haven't usually had that much experience lately, and by his own admission, he's coaching harder than he's ever had to. When asked what he meant by that, he stopped short of calling our guys "football stupid" but he did explicitly say we've got a lot of kids who understand nothing beyond high school football, who don't know and understand the game intricately, and who have to have everything simplified and dumbed down for them. So I'm wondering if his chops as a DC are built on the complexity of his scheme, and if so, if it's necessitates more experienced players, and if that's something he/we can count on routinely here. Dunno.
Same goes for Canada. I don't know much about him other than Pitt scored a lot of points last year. Our offensive line looks pretty bad atm and the receivers are probably way too young this year to amount to much in conference. I guess time will tell on him. It's hard to run any type of offense when your line is blown up like ours was. We overmatched BYU and Chattanooga, but I wasn't overly impressed with what I saw from him. I'm not sure what the big deal is supposed to be yet. By his own admission, his offense is simple, it's just a handful of plays run out of a lot of different formations with lots of pre-snap movement and window dressing. It didn't seem to phase MSU in the least. They stuck to their gaps, played their assignments, and didn't take the bait on any misdirects. If the plays themselves aren't designed to be exploitative then I don't know what good it is. All that shit will get blown up in this division. Of course, by his own mouth and the QBs too, "We haven't even seen a tenth of our offense yet." So, whatever, I don't know. It really doesn't matter if you have no O-line.
I saw nothing Saturday to justify the 1.5+ mil we're paying these guys, though Aranda has a bit of a pass given the injuries to the DL right now. We run 3 down linemen as a base, and 3 DL starters were out for this game, so.....yeah. The 2s were not as good as we hoped the 1s would be, go figure. Also the offense couldn't stay on the field, so they got tired, with few other bodies to rotate. It's not a good look for Aranda's unit to fail to set the edge the entire game, but because of his job last year, I give him a pass. For now.
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I remember Aranda saying one time (while in Madison) that his job was easy because he had very smart players to deal with and they picked up his concepts very quickly. I think he is a GREAT coordinator with the right pieces. I honestly thought he'd do better with the increase in talent level to be honest.
Canada was in Madison for BB's final season, but BB handcuffed him to the point that had BB stayed, Canada would have left. All season long the offense sputtered and then in the CCG against Nebraska he said F it and called whatever he wanted because he knew he was leaving. The kids even admitted it. Bingo. 70 points.
I don't know much about him otherwise, but the play calling in that game was genius. He did some really good things at Pitt last year.
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There might be a higher ceiling with the talent, but a lower floor with the inexperience (and more often). We'll just have to see. The guys last year were elite by mid-season. They were as good as any LSU defense I've seen. They were also older than the defenses we've had since 2012.
We're going to need to change the 3-and-done culture, I think.
I'm not sure how Alabama gets around this. I don't keep track of them, but it sure seems like they lose a lot early to the draft. They either are not losing as many, or else it's got to do with the fact they have 5 stars sitting on the bench, and so when guys leave early for the NFL, they have more studs who are still older and have experience in the program. They obviously lose a lot to the draft, yet every year they are older than us. So is every other team. Like I said, I think that's got to change.
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Alabama on defense has TREMENDOUS depth. And they play their Twos a lot because they are that talented. So, when a One leaves, the Two has significant experience, as well as talent.
Repeat.
You can only do this if you recruit at an insane level, which gets tough when a 5 star looks at your lineup and wants to play.