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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 17, 2018, 09:46:05 AM

Title: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 17, 2018, 09:46:05 AM
Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=6514.0).  
Votes through me (12 voters):
Team/Poster AVG Rank StdDev BestWorstRange LW AVG LW RankChg AvgChg Rank
M          1.00 1               -   110          1.00 1               -   0
tOSU          2.42 2          0.67 242          2.30 2        (0.12)0
NU          3.00 3          0.95 253          3.00 3               -   0
PSU          3.92 4          0.67 352          4.60 5          0.68 1
UW          6.00 5          0.85 583          6.80 7          0.80 2
Iowa          6.08 6          1.83 396          6.40 6          0.32 0
MSU          6.83 7          1.34 594          4.30 4        (2.53)-3
PU          7.42 8          0.90 693          7.70 8          0.28 0
UNL          8.75 9          1.71 4106          9.20 9          0.45 0
MD          9.83 10          0.94 9123        10.60 10          0.77 0
MN        11.25 11          0.62 10122        11.00 11        (0.25)0
IU        11.50 12          0.67 10122        11.30 12        (0.20)0
ILL        13.00 13               -   13130        12.80 13        (0.20)0
RU        14.00 14               -   14140        14.00 14               -   0
Drop the high and low:
Team/Poster AVG Rank StdDev BestWorstRange LW AVG LW RankChg AvgChg Rank
M          1.00 1               -   110          1.00 1               -   0
tOSU          2.30 2          0.48 231          2.25 2        (0.05)0
NU          2.90 3          0.74 242          2.88 3        (0.02)0
PSU          3.90 4          0.57 352          4.63 5          0.73 1
UW          5.90 5          0.57 572          6.88 7          0.98 2
Iowa          6.10 6          1.45 484          6.38 6          0.28 0
MSU          6.80 7          1.14 594          4.13 4        (2.68)-3
PU          7.40 8          0.70 682          7.75 8          0.35 0
UNL          9.10 9          0.88 8102          9.13 9          0.03 0
MD          9.70 10          0.67 9112        10.63 10          0.93 0
MN        11.30 11          0.48 11121        11.00 11        (0.30)0
IU        11.60 12          0.52 11121        11.25 12        (0.35)0
ILL        13.00 13               -   13130        13.00 13               -   0
RU        14.00 14               -   14140        14.00 14               -   0
Various graphical representations of the votes:
<br />(https://thumb.ibb.co/j6Vgzq/B1-GPR-2018-wk-12-pre-cur.jpg) (https://ibb.co/j6Vgzq)<br /><br />(https://thumb.ibb.co/e6LQQV/B1-GPR-2018-wk-12-dist.jpg) (https://ibb.co/e6LQQV)<br /><br />(https://thumb.ibb.co/goBX5V/B1-GPR-2018-wk-12.jpg) (https://ibb.co/goBX5V)<br />
Schedule/performance chart:
Rank.1234567891011121314.Rank
.TeamMtOSUNUPSUUWIowaMSUPUUNLMDMNIUILLRUTeam.
1Mn/a11/24, HL by 3, HL by 35, AL by 25, AmissL by 14, HmissL by 46, AL by 21, AmissL by 11, AmissL by 35, HM1
2tOSU11/24, An/amissL by 1, HmissmissL by 20, HW by 29, HL by 5, AL in OT, HL by 16, AL by 23, AmissL by 49, AtOSU2
3NUW by 3, Amissn/amissL by 14, AL by 4, HL by 10, HL by 4, HL in OT, AmissL by 10, Amiss11/24, AL by 3, HNU3
4PSUW by 35, HW by 1, Amissn/aL by 12, AL by 6, AW by 4, Amissmiss11/24, AmissL by 5, HL by 39, HL by 13, HPSU4
5UWW by 25, HmissW by 14, HW by 12, Hn/aL by 11, HmissL in OT, HL by 17, Amiss11/24, AmissL by 29, AL by 14, AUW5
6IowamissmissW by 4, AW by 6, HW by 11, An/amissW by 2, H11/23, AL by 23, AL by 17, HL by 26, HL by 63, HmissIowa6
7MSUW by 14, AW by 20, AW by 10, AL by 4, Hmissmissn/aL by 10, AW by 3, HL by 21, HmissL by 14, Hmiss11/24, AMSU7
8PUmissL by 29, AW by 4, AmissW in OT, AL by 2, AW by 10, Hn/aL by 14, HmissW by 31, H11/24, HL by 39, HmissPU8
9UNLW by 46, HW by 5, HW in OT, HmissW by 17, H11/23, HL by 3, AW by 14, An/amissL by 25, AmissL by 19, AmissUNL9
10MDW by 21, HW in OT, Amiss11/24, HmissW by 23, HW by 21, Amissmissn/aL by 29, AW by 2, HL by 30, AL by 27, AMD10
11MNmissW by 16, HW by 10, Amiss11/24, HW by 17, AmissL by 31, AW by 25, HW by 29, Hn/aL by 7, AW by 24, HmissMN11
12IUW by 11, HW by 23, HmissW by 5, AmissW by 26, AW by 14, A11/24, AmissL by 2, AW by 7, Hn/amissL by 7, HIU12
13ILLmissmiss11/24, HW by 39, AW by 29, HW by 63,AmissW by 39, AW by 19, HW by 30, HL by 24, Amissn/aL by 21, HILL13
14RUW by 35, AW by 49, HW by 3, AW by 13, AW by 14, Hmiss11/24, HmissmissW by 27, HmissW by 7, AW by 21, An/aRU14
.TeamMtOSUNUPSUUWIowaMSUPUUNLMDMNIUILLRUTeam.
Rank.1234567891011121314.Rank
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: MaximumSam on November 17, 2018, 10:20:07 PM
1. Michigan: Run the ball, play some defense
2. Northwestern: Running out the season
3. Iowa: Put Illinois into a crater
4. OSU: Now that's how you properly play Big 12 ball
5. PSU: Seem to be in a bit of a shell
6. Wisconsin: Could I just put Jonathan Taylor in this spot?  Good lord
7. Michigan State: No offense
8. Purdue: No defense
9. Maryland: So, so close
10. Nebraska: Surprising to see them win a defensive game
11. Minnesota: Can still pull out a bowl game
12. Indiana: Also a chance
13. Illinois: Almost put them last, but...
14. Rutgers: Blech
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: LittlePig on November 17, 2018, 11:23:10 PM
1. Mich
2. NW
3.  OSU
4. PSU
5.  Iowa
6. Wisc
7. Purdue
8. MSU
9. Neb
10. MD
11. Minn
12.  Indy
13.  ILL
14.  Rut
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: FearlessF on November 18, 2018, 11:20:20 AM
1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
3. Northwestern
4. Penn State
5. Wisconsin
6. Purdue
7. Iowa
8. Nebraska
9. Michigan State
10. Maryland
11. Indiana
12. Minnesota
13. Illinois
14. Rutgers
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 18, 2018, 07:13:35 PM
1 Wolverines
2 Buckeyes
3 Nittany Lions
4 Wildcats 
5 Hawkeyes
6 Spartans 
7 Boilermakers
8 Badgers
9 Terrapins 
10 Cornhuskers 
11 Golden Gophers 
12 Hoosiers 
13 Fighting Illini 
14 Scarlet Knights 
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 19, 2018, 07:44:17 AM
3. Iowa: Put Illinois into a crater
They did, and at this point we shouldn't even be surprised.  Iowa has been phenomenal against the bad teams in the B1G.  Against the four teams ranked #10 through #13 last week:
Against #10 Maryland:  
Iowa beat them by 23 points.  That is better than the two Michigan Schools (21 points each) and MUCH better than Ohio State (needed OT).  
Against #11 Minnesota:
Iowa beat them by 17 points.  That is better than tOSU (16) and NU (10).  It is vastly better than PU (31 point loss)
Against #12 Indiana:  
Iowa beat them by 26 points.  That is beter than tOSU (23) and much better than MSU (14), M (11), and PSU (5).  
Against #13 Illinois:
Iowa beat them by 63 points!  That is much better than PSU and PU (39 each), UW (29).  
My point is that against the bad teams Iowa didn't just win or even just win big, they won bigger than anybody else.  If we ranked teams only on their performance against the bad teams, Iowa would be a clear #1 easily ahead of Michigan, Ohio State, and Northwestern.  
The problem is their other four games.  Against teams that were ranked #3, #5, #7, and #8 the Hawkeyes were 0-4.  When I do my rankings I just can't see myself putting the Hawkeyes in the top half of the conference.  
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 19, 2018, 07:50:53 AM
Comparing Ohio State and Northwestern for the #2 spot:

They have five common opponents.  It will be six once Ohio State plays Michigan this week.  Using last week's rankings:

I know some people will disagree but I honestly feel like the PU and RU games roughly balance each other out because Rutgers is a horrible team.  Thus, even without considering NU's OOC debacle I would probably put Ohio State at #2 and with the OOC's included this is not even close.  
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: ELA on November 19, 2018, 08:01:51 AM
Last week in parenthesis...

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: Cincydawg on November 19, 2018, 08:20:53 AM
I see one good team, a couple of fairly decent teams, a bunch of mediocre teams, and a few bad teams.

Oh, sorry, I was talking about the SEC.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: Honestbuckeye on November 19, 2018, 08:23:45 AM
Comparing Ohio State and Northwestern for the #2 spot:

They have five common opponents.  It will be six once Ohio State plays Michigan this week.  Using last week's rankings:
  • Against #4 MSU:  tOSU won by 20 on the road, NU won by 10 on the road.  Favors Ohio State.  
  • Against #8 Purdue:  NU won by 4 on the road, tOSU LOST by 29 on the road.  Strongly favors Northwestern.  
  • Against #9 Nebraska:  tOSU won by 5 at home, NU won in OT at home.  Favors Ohio State.  
  • Against #11 Minnesota:  tOSU won by 16 at home, NU won by 10 on the road.  Roughly a wash after accounting for HFA.  
  • Against #14 Rutgers:  tOSU won by 49 at home, NU won by 3 on the road.  Strongly favors Ohio State.  

I know some people will disagree but I honestly feel like the PU and RU games roughly balance each other out because Rutgers is a horrible team.  Thus, even without considering NU's OOC debacle I would probably put Ohio State at #2 and with the OOC's included this is not even close.  
I think some of us go by body of work, like you just did.  And then others go by who would win if they played right now, which understandably points many to NW.  
I have always felt that is what makes the CFP so frustrating, they use both and do it to support what narrative they choose. 
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: ohio1317 on November 19, 2018, 09:40:52 AM
1. (1) Michigan: Undefeated in conference play.  Now favorite to win in Columbus next week.
2. (2) Ohio State: Last week I said the Michigan State game looked like vintage Tresselball.  The Maryland game...did not.  Ohio State survived, they have Michigan at home, and still control Big Ten destiny at the least.  Will need to improve in a hurry now, but everything still in front of them and are 10-1.
----
3. (4) Northwestern: Were underdogs vs. Minnesota but won decently.  The Wildcats just keep going. Will be underdogs vs. Ohio State/Michigan winner, but what a season and have a chance to win conference and go to the Rose Bowl.
4. (5) Penn State: Likely in a position to get a NY6 bowl if they win this week vs. Maryland. 
5. (3) Michigan State: Great defense, but very little offense.  This team would be great if it had an offense.
----
6. (7) Wisconsin: Won a tough one vs. Purdue.  Not giving up.
7. (6) Purdue: Now will be playing Indiana for the Old Oak and Bucket with both fighting for bowl eligibility. 
8. (8) Iowa: If you repeated this season, I would probably take Iowa to win the division, but lost all the close ones it needed.
9. (9) Nebraska: Amazing how good 4-7 can feel.  Things are looking much brighter.
10. (10) Maryland: So close to having a season with win over both Ohio State and Texas.  Now going to play Penn State for bowl eligibility. 
11. (11) Minnesota: Just when this team seemed to be falling to pieces.  Let's see how it does from here.
12. (12) Indiana: In the game vs. Michigan.  Now beat Purdue for a bowl game.
13. (13) Illinois: Progress this season, but that was ugly. 
14. (14) Rutgers: They have looked much better last few weeks, but have been playing toughest part of schedule.  Get Michigan State next week for one more chance at a conference win.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: Cincydawg on November 19, 2018, 10:11:08 AM
I think the NY6 bowl games this year are going to consist of a lot of pretty mediocre teams who happened to win a few games that were contested, instead of losing them.

Last year we had some solid teams in them, like OSU-v-USC.  This year, not so much.  UGA-Oklahoma is a possible for the Sugar, which sounds familiar.

I would NOT want to play UCF, their offense is dangerous.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: LetsGoPeay on November 19, 2018, 10:18:19 AM
1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
3. Northestern
4. Iowa
5. Penn State
6. Wisconsin
7. Michigan State.
8. Purdue
9. Maryland
10. Nebraska
11. Minnesota
12. Indiana
13. Illinois
14. Rutgers
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 19, 2018, 10:28:09 AM
1) Michigan: obviously.
2) Ohio State: not dead yet.
3) Penn State: not Northwestern.
4) Northwestern: still don't understand this team, but it wins a lot (in conference).
5) Iowa
6) Wisconsin: barely.
7) Michigan State: Nebraska is improving, but still...
8) Purdue
9) Maryland
10) Nebraska
11) Minnesota
12) Indiana
13) Illinois
14) Rutgers
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 19, 2018, 10:42:46 AM
1 Wolverines
2 Buckeyes
3 Nittany Lions
4 Wildcats
5 Hawkeyes
6 Spartans
7 Boilermakers
8 Badgers

9 Terrapins
10 Cornhuskers
11 Golden Gophers
12 Hoosiers
13 Fighting Illini
14 Scarlet Knights
You need to 'splain this one.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 19, 2018, 11:02:48 AM


How do you rank the Big Ten teams? 
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: Entropy on November 19, 2018, 11:08:22 AM
If I was still doing this... I'd really struggle with UNL.   4-7 would say their at the bottom... but right now, they probably are playing like a team in the top half of the Big.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: 847badgerfan on November 19, 2018, 11:08:54 AM

How do you rank the Big Ten teams?
I can't right now, as I've not seen a game for 3 weeks due to travel.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 19, 2018, 11:23:09 AM

Oh okay. Well it is ELA's fault. 

He had admonished me for showing "recency bias" a few weeks back when I ranked Northwestern ahead of MSU after the Wildcats won a close game in E Lansing. 

So this time I went the other way. 
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: fezzador on November 19, 2018, 11:30:01 AM
Every team, from top to bottom, has some glaring flaws.  It's difficult to justify any rankings because no matter what combination I can come up with, it defies already-settled H2H results or makes assumptions based on common opponents.  I think it's safe to say that Michigan is the least-flawed team, and Rutgers is pretty much awful everywhere, and there's a ginormous train wreck in between.

Let's assume that Michigan wins out (and that's no guarantee, there's a very real chance either Ohio State or Northwestern will beat them).  They hung with Notre Dame and still lost, and in the public's eye, ND is probably not Bama or Clemson's peer.  UM is certainly stronger now than they were in early September, but I'm still not convinced they'd beat ND if given another opportunity.  They have the defense to keep Bama and Clemson in check, but the offense is easily the weakest of the 4 front-runners.  They're probably 50/50 at best against ND playing them straight-up; they're going to need to cause multiple turnovers, get consistently short fields, and hope the officials are kinder to them if they have any shot of beating either the Tide or Tigers.  As a presumed four-seed, they might get lucky once, but they won't beat both unless something drastic changes on offense.

1) Michigan
2) Northwestern
3) Ohio State
4) Penn State
5) Wisconsin
6) Purdue
7) Iowa
8) Nebraska
9) Michigan State
10) Maryland
11) Minnesota
12) Indiana
13) Illinois
14) Rutgers
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: Anonymous Coward on November 19, 2018, 12:25:19 PM
(Last,...,Preseason)

1. Michigan (1,1,1,1,2,3,3,3,4,4,4,3)   --  Think they've strategically held a lot back since PSU; I also hope so
2. OSU (2,2,2,2,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1)         --  May have been forced to deploy some of the "stuff saved for Michigan" on Maryland, instead

----

3. Northwestern (3,5,5,8,7,8,10,10,9,8,8,8) --  Could surprise in CCG but is clearly the most limited contender
4. PSU (5,4,3,4,3,2,2,2,2,3,7,6)                  --  More likely to be too low than NU
5. MSU (4,3,7,7,5,6,6,6,6,6,3,2)                 --  But will anyone lose their jobs?

----

6. UW (7,7,6,3,4,4,4,4,5,2,2,4)
7. Iowa (6,8,4,5,6,5,5,5,3,5,5,5)
8. Nebraska (9,9,10,10,12,12,12,11,10,10,10,10)
9. Purdue (8,6,8,6,8,9,9,9,11,9,9,7)
10. Minnesota (10,11,11,12,11,11,11,12,12,12,12,12)
11. Indiana (11,12,12,11,10,7,7,7,7,11,11,11)
12. Maryland (12,10,9,9,9,10,8,8,8,7,6,9)
13. Illinois (13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,14,14,14)
14. Rutger (14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,13,13,13)
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: Temp430 on November 19, 2018, 12:28:25 PM
1) Michigan
2) Ohio State
3) Northwestern.
4) Penn State
5) Iowa
6) Wisconsin
7) Michigan State
8) Purdue
9) Maryland
10) Nebraska
11) Indiana
12) Minnesota
13) Illinois
14) Rutgers
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: LittlePig on November 19, 2018, 09:01:49 PM
Comparing Ohio State and Northwestern for the #2 spot:

They have five common opponents.  It will be six once Ohio State plays Michigan this week.  Using last week's rankings:
  • Against #4 MSU:  tOSU won by 20 on the road, NU won by 10 on the road.  Favors Ohio State.  
  • Against #8 Purdue:  NU won by 4 on the road, tOSU LOST by 29 on the road.  Strongly favors Northwestern.  
  • Against #9 Nebraska:  tOSU won by 5 at home, NU won in OT at home.  Favors Ohio State.  
  • Against #11 Minnesota:  tOSU won by 16 at home, NU won by 10 on the road.  Roughly a wash after accounting for HFA.  
  • Against #14 Rutgers:  tOSU won by 49 at home, NU won by 3 on the road.  Strongly favors Ohio State.  

I know some people will disagree but I honestly feel like the PU and RU games roughly balance each other out because Rutgers is a horrible team.  Thus, even without considering NU's OOC debacle I would probably put Ohio State at #2 and with the OOC's included this is not even close.  
What I got out of that was against common opponents
NW is 5-0
OSU is 4-1
Big advantage to NW
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 20, 2018, 11:14:11 AM
What I got out of that was against common opponents
NW is 5-0
OSU is 4-1
Big advantage to NW
IMHO, Northwestern's worst games are MUCH worse than Ohio State's worst game.  Also, I haven't seen a higher ceiling for Northwestern.  
I honestly don't think this is about me ranking Ohio State high so much as it is about me ranking Northwestern low.  I just can't justify putting a team that:
at #2.  I just can't see it.  
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 20, 2018, 11:33:40 AM
I see one good team, a couple of fairly decent teams, a bunch of mediocre teams, and a few bad teams.

Oh, sorry, I was talking about the SEC.
There are seasons where it feels like two or three conferences have two or three or even four teams that are all really, really good, and you wonder which of these juggernauts will survive to advance to the most prestigious bowl games/the playoff.
I can remember years with Alabama, LSU, Florida, and Georgia all looking excellent (or swapping Auburn in, and further back swapping Tennessee in for one of those, sometimes even South Carolina or those Mississippi schools). Likewise in the Big Ten, there are season where MSU and Wisconsin looked like they had a legitimate shot at Ohio State or Michigan in years when those two teams were really good (or swap Penn State in there for someone, with Iowa nipping their heels). Out west, Oregon, USC, and Stanford could all look great at the same time. Oddly, the ACC has never really lived up to its potential with FSU and Miami, but Clemson sure has been good at the same time that one of those Florida schools was.
Anyway, sometimes that happens.
This year seems like the opposite of that. No one really seems to believe in the unbeaten Irish (and their strong-on-paper schedule turned out not to be very good; when was the last time USC wasn't even receiving votes?); even Alabama's schedule raises an eyebrow, and Michigan, while very strong defensively, hasn't ever quite seemed like a world beater. One-loss Ohio State looks pretty darned shaky and the Big Ten west is a dumpster fire. Clemson hasn't really played anyone of note and out west Wazzu has a hard time being taken seriously. And I haven't even mentioned the Big 12 in this post (remember when Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and one or more of Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, or Kansas State was making noise?).
Everyone seems to want to move on to Clemson/Alabama 3 (except Michigan, Notre Dame, and Georgia fans, of course), but even those two teams don't seem to have quite the excitement they've had in the past, so much as more a feel of inevitability...
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 20, 2018, 11:41:37 AM
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 20, 2018, 11:43:08 AM
Only 12 voters?  

If anyone else is waiting to vote, please don't wait any longer.  Hoping to tabulate this afternoon.  
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: ELA on November 20, 2018, 03:57:12 PM
Massey composite rankings (100 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...


Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 12
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on November 20, 2018, 04:07:43 PM
Results posted, votes through me (only 12 voters).  Not a lot of change this week:

Looking forward to the final weekend of the regular season:

It oddly doesn't feel like all that big of a weekend.  #1 vs #2 should, in theory, be the GOTY especially with #1 on the road but Ohio State has looked so shaky that I think most of us aren't giving them much of a chance.  In the rest of the games the teams are all separated by at least three spots and in all but PU/IU the better team is comfortably at home.