Nebraska and Michigan State will honor Sam Foltz and Mike Sadler during a pre-game ceremony on Saturday involving the head coaches, parents of Foltz and Sadler and specialists of both teams. It's the first meeting between NU and MSU since Foltz and Sadler died on July 23, 2016.good on the 'skers and spartans for this. sad day to remember, but their live are worthy of it.
— Tom Shatel (@tomshatelOWH) November 12, 2018 (https://twitter.com/tomshatelOWH/status/1062097090346663936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)
| Michigan State Spartans (4-3, 6-4) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-5, 3-7) |
| NOON - Lincoln, NE - FOX |
| Chalk this one up as a big "who knows?" Nebraska is clearly a far, far better team than the one we saw in September. But all that said, their best actual win is a home win over 5-5 Minnesota. They do have a pair of close losses to Northwestern and Ohio State in their last five though, and could have been playing for a bowl down the stretch if one of those breaks their way. For the second week in a row, we have to determine if Michigan State's defense is more elite than an elite offense. They did all they could do against Ohio State, forcing the Buckeyes off the field time and again, only to have their offense put them back in a terrible situation. So Michigan State's defense doesn't just have to overcome Nebraska's potent offense, averaging a conference best 6.8 ypp, they have to overcome their own offense, averaging only 4.7 ypp, third worst in the conference. The Spartans have simply been unable to extend drives, converting third downs at a horrific 22.9% clip, nearly 9% worse than anyone else, including Rutgers. So they aren't just giving opposing offenses the ball in good field position, they aren't even giving their defense a break, averaging only 19.1 first downs per game, third worst. Granted they are also only allowing 16.6 first downs per game, second best in the conference. To flip that, Nebraska is second best, averaging 24.3 first downs per game, but giving up 25, second worst. So the Spartans have gotten used to playing games with a lot of possessions, a lot of special teams play, while the Cornhuskers are accustomed to long, extending drives, on both sides of the ball. What makes this game hard to predict is Michigan State's quarterback situation. Brian Lewerke is clearly hurt, and has been for some time. But it seems to be getting worse. This much seems clear to even Lewerke himself at this point, but not to Mark Dantonio. Rocky Lombardi looked plenty capable in the win over Purdue, after getting first team reps all week, and a gameplan built to his strengths. Coming in cold off the bench against Maryland and Ohio State he looked like a different guy. Dantonio has spoken of using him like a reliever, but it doesn't seem like he's capable of that at all. If Michigan State rolls with Lewerke again, then flips to Lombardi when that inevitably doesn't work, Nebraska will win this game. If the staff handles Lombardi like they did against Purdue, they still, even with all of the running back and receiver injuries (sounds like now only Cody White may play among the WR group, in addition to L.J. Scott officially being shut down for the year), Michigan State still has enough offensive talent against what is a lousy defense. But Nebraska is not even asking their defense to just do enough, they've won 2 of their last 3 Big Ten games while surrendering 33 ppg. While Nebraska's offense is good, I don't think it's as good as Ohio State's, and the Buckeyes managed only 250 total yards, on just 4.2 ypp and 7 points until the defense finally said no mas after MSU's 6 offensive drive of three plays or less, out of 7 drives to start the second half. The problem is Ohio State won the field position battle all game long. If Nebraska is working short fields, it means their defense played over their heads, or Michigan State played the wrong quarterback, or both. If either happens again, Nebraska wins. But every time this year, I've been ready to write the season off, Michigan State pulls one out. Nebraska has been Dantonio's fly in the ointment since joining the league, only looking good against them once, 2013. But if Nebraska holds Michigan State to "only" 33 points, it would mark Nebraska's second best defensive effort in Big Ten play, and Michigan State hasn't allowed more than 31 points all season. It'll take some big turnovers for Nebraska to get there. |
| MICHIGAN STATE 33, NEBRASKA 21 |
This could very well be a winnable game for the Bugeaters.Absolutely. MSU needs the offense that they ran against Purdue to win it. Based on how everything went down after the OSU game, I think they have to prep Lombardi this week. If they don't, Nebraska wins.
This could very well be a winnable game for the Bugeaters.disagree.
Getting snow and ice tonight. There was some snow in the rows in Lincoln last Saturday from Friday.They keep upping us here, now 3 inches followed by ice.
I assume snow and wind and poor weather is better for SpartyUgly has been this series since becoming conference rivals. A lot of bad play, a lot of sloppy play. I honestly can't think of an exception.
I agree with Mdot. the poorest offense hasn't been able to make Nebraska's defense look good.
w/o the 2 muffed punts vs Illinois last week it would have been a very tight game.
If Sparty doesn't make a handful of bad mistakes the Huskers can't win.
I'm just hoping the Huskers don't make their usual handful of mistakes and the game in close into the 4th quarter.
Ugly yes, hairpulling entertaining at times.One year Nebraska had 5 turnovers...in their own territory...4 in one half.
One year Nebraska had 5 turnovers...in their own territory...4 in one half.That was the year Pierson El ran back two 4th qtr punts I think.
The next year I believe Langford lost three fumbles for MSU...his only three of the year
SportsLine Projection Model's score: Michigan State 23, Nebraska 22If Lewerke plays, he ain't throwing for 210 yards.
Vegas line: Michigan State is favored by 2 (O/U 49.5)
Projected stats: Provided quarterback Brian Lewerke can play through his shoulder injury, he's projected to throw for 210 yards and 1.38 TDs. He gets some help from running back Connor Heyward (68 rushing yards) and receiver Cody White's 66 yards. Adrian Martinez throws for 235 yards and 1.29 touchdowns for the Cornhuskers. Devine Ozigbo rushes for 44 yards and wideout Stanley Morgan gets 66 yards for Nebraska.
Sustained winds from the north at 20mph, gusts to 30mph. High of 32. Brutal. I see the total has crept down to 47.5. I even saw N favored by 1.According to VegasInsider (http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/matchups/), the Huskers are now a one-point favorite over the Spartans just hours before kickoff.
2 weeks in a row MSU doesn't find the end zone. Yikes.Against two bad defenses. This offense isn't just bad, it's horrifically, historically bad.
Against two bad defenses. This offense isn't just bad, it's horrifically, historically bad.Charlie Weis objects.
saw this on twitter....Poetic
This was the first time MSU and UNL met since Mike Sadler and Sam Foltz passed away and all the points scored were kicks.
Ugly yes, hairpulling entertaining at times.this was obviously true, but I didn't see this coming
S&P+ now has MSU #4 in defense, #115 in offense.I don't know how teams like Syracuse and Kentucky were ranked so high. Still trying to figure that out.
For comparison, 2012 was #2 and #89. Oddly that 7-6 team was #15 overall in S&P+. I want to say 5 of their 6 losses we're by 6 points to or less, so maybe luck factor wasn't in their favor, because that seems REALLY high for a 7-6 team in a year I don't recall the Big Ten being particularly strong.
This year #31 overall, which actually ahead of some ranked teams like Texas, Kentucky and Syracuse
Well, that was an unexpected game. Weather was worse that I thought it was going to be.Well our best wideout is done for the season, and Cody White is a few games back from a broken hand, and clearly not what he was when healthy. Cam Chambers never developed, and Jalen Nailor is a true freshman, who shows flashes but has to grow. That's basically what we got. We were playing a pair of walk ons out of desperation. Would have been nice if Rison and Jackson hadn't transferred.
Sparty's OC should be tarred and feathered for calling 41 passes, especially when A Gap runs were getting chuck yards, but he has my appreciation.
Lombardi could be a pretty good player when all is said and done. Sparty needs better wideouts though.
I'd bet Iowa won't pass 41 times this week. They'll see the film and will challenge UNL to stop the inside running game.very true, but Iowa's run game hasn't been what it was the past couple seasons
if the Spartans don't drop about 7-8 balls the 41 pass attempts wouldn't look so bad, because they would have scored more points and got the "W"Alonzo Moore wants another chance to catch one too.
Syracuse and Kentucky had not played anyone with a pulse and had fewer lossesKentucky's schedule is something line No. 15 and includes Florida and Miss State teams that should finish a solid enough 9-4 and a somewhat strong 8-4. That's not bad by any stretch for a lower echelon top 25 team.
lazy pollsters
bravoThey beat a team that will win nine games unless it takes a bad upset.
4 point loss
Kentucky has a peak MSU resume, but with a couple more losses. Their SOS and SOR is really good. But they aren't beating anyone, including the teams they should, convincingly, so the methods that value that more don't like themBingo. I think it would be best to say this. They are relatively accomplished, but not strong.