CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 10, 2018, 09:05:04 PM
-
Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=6389.0).
There is something REALLY unusual this week, I've never seen this anywhere near this late in the season. This week 10 of our 14 teams are within +/-1 of where they started in the preseason. Northwestern (+4.22) and Michigan (+3.36) are way up. Wisconsin (-4.51), and Penn State (-1.72) are way down. The other 10:
- +0.43 Purdue: Started at 8.18, dropped as low as 12.35 early on, climbed as high as 5.33 (last week), and is now at 7.75 less than 0.5 ahead of where they started.
- +0.27 Illinois: Started at 13.27, dropped as low as 13.77, climbed as high as 11.42 (last week) and is now almost where they started at 13.00.
- +0.18 Minnesota: Started at 11.18, climbed as high as 7.93 early on, dropped as low as 12.25 (last week) and is now basically back where they started at 11.00.
- +0.06 Nebraska: Started at 9.18, dropped as low as 12.80 in their early losing streak and has now climbed back to barely over where they started at 9.13.
- -0.10 Iowa: Started at 6.27, climbed as high as 3.07, dropped as low as 7.50 (last week), and is now basically back where they started at 6.38.
- -0.16 Ohio State: Started at 2.09, climbed as high as a unanimous #1 for three weeks, dropped as low as 3.00 (right after PU loss), and is now back basically where they started at 2.25.
- -0.35 Maryland: Started at 10.27, climbed as high as 6.76 early on and is now at their low for the year at 10.63 just barely below where they started.
- -0.43 Indiana: Started at 10.82, climbed as high as 7.00 early on, dropped as low as 12.17 (last week), and is now basically back where they started at 11.25.
- -0.55 Rutgers: Started at 13.45, climbed as high as 12.77 early on, dropped to a unanimous #14 most weeks but that is barely worse than where they started.
- -0.67 Michigan State: Started at 3.45, dropped as low as 7.07 a few weeks ago, climbed as high as 3.33 (last week), and is now back just a little worse than where they started at 4.13.
Votes through me, only 10 voters this week:
| Team/Poster | AVG | Rank | StdDev | Best | Worst | Range | LW AVG | LW Rank | Chg Avg | Chg Rank |
| M | 1.00 | 1 | - | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.00 | 1 | - | 0 |
| tOSU | 2.30 | 2 | 0.48 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2.67 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 |
| NU | 3.00 | 3 | 0.94 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3.86 | 4 | 0.86 | 1 |
| MSU | 4.30 | 4 | 0.67 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 3.33 | 3 | (0.97) | -1 |
| PSU | 4.60 | 5 | 0.97 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 5.47 | 5.5 | 0.87 | 0.5 |
| Iowa | 6.40 | 6 | 1.17 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 7.00 | 8 | 0.60 | 2 |
| UW | 6.80 | 7 | 0.42 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 6.93 | 7 | 0.13 | 0 |
| PU | 7.70 | 8 | 0.82 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 5.47 | 5.5 | (2.23) | -2.5 |
| UNL | 9.20 | 9 | 0.79 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 9.47 | 9 | 0.27 | 0 |
| MD | 10.60 | 10 | 1.26 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 9.73 | 10 | (0.87) | 0 |
| MN | 11.00 | 11 | 0.94 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 12.13 | 13 | 1.13 | 2 |
| IU | 11.30 | 12 | 0.82 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 12.07 | 12 | 0.77 | 0 |
| ILL | 12.80 | 13 | 0.63 | 11 | 13 | 2 | 11.60 | 11 | (1.20) | -2 |
| RU | 14.00 | 14 | - | 14 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 14 | - | 0 |
Drop the high and low:
| Team/Poster | AVG | Rank | StdDev | Best | Worst | Range | LW AVG | LW Rank | Chg Avg |
| M | 1.00 | 1 | - | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.00 | 1 | - |
| tOSU | 2.25 | 2 | 0.46 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2.42 | 2 | 0.17 |
| NU | 2.88 | 3 | 0.64 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4.23 | 4 | 1.36 |
| MSU | 4.13 | 4 | 0.35 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3.33 | 3 | (0.79) |
| PSU | 4.63 | 5 | 0.74 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5.58 | 6 | 0.96 |
| Iowa | 6.38 | 6 | 1.06 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 7.50 | 8 | 1.13 |
| UW | 6.88 | 7 | 0.35 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 7.08 | 7 | 0.21 |
| PU | 7.75 | 8 | 0.46 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 5.33 | 5 | (2.42) |
| UNL | 9.13 | 9 | 0.35 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 9.25 | 9 | 0.13 |
| MD | 10.63 | 10 | 1.19 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 9.75 | 10 | (0.88) |
| MN | 11.00 | 11 | 0.93 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 12.25 | 13 | 1.25 |
| IU | 11.25 | 12 | 0.46 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 12.17 | 12 | 0.92 |
| ILL | 13.00 | 13 | - | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11.42 | 11 | (1.58) |
| RU | 14.00 | 14 | - | 14 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 14 | - |
Various graphical representations of the votes:
<br />(https://thumb.ibb.co/mqbBZf/B1-GPR-2018-wk-11.jpg) (https://ibb.co/mqbBZf)<br /><br />(https://thumb.ibb.co/eO2kuf/B1-GPR-2018-wk-11-dist.jpg) (https://ibb.co/eO2kuf)<br /><br />(https://thumb.ibb.co/bL9WZf/B1-GPR-2018-wk-11-pre-cur.jpg) (https://ibb.co/bL9WZf)<br />
Schedule/performance chart:
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | . | Rank |
| . | Team | M | tOSU | NU | MSU | PSU | Iowa | UW | PU | UNL | MD | MN | IU | ILL | RU | Team | . |
| 1 | M | n/a | 11/24, H | L by 3, H | L by 14, H | L by 35, A | miss | L by 25, A | miss | L by 46, A | L by 21, A | miss | 11/17, A | miss | L by 35, H | M | 1 |
| 2 | tOSU | 11/24, A | n/a | miss | L by 20, H | L by 1, H | miss | miss | W by 29, H | L by 5, A | 11/17, H | L by 16, A | L by 23, A | miss | L by 49, A | tOSU | 2 |
| 3 | NU | W by 3, A | miss | n/a | L by 10, H | miss | L by 4, H | L by 14, A | L by 4, H | L in OT, A | miss | 11/17, A | miss | 11/24, A | L by 3, H | NU | 3 |
| 4 | MSU | W by 14, A | W by 20, A | W by 10, A | n/a | L by 4, H | miss | miss | L by 10, A | 11/17, H | L by 21, H | miss | L by 14, H | miss | 11/24, A | MSU | 4 |
| 5 | PSU | W by 35, H | W by 1, A | miss | W by 4, A | n/a | L by 6, A | L by 12, A | miss | miss | 11/24, A | miss | L by 5, H | L by 39, H | 11/17, H | PSU | 5 |
| 6 | Iowa | miss | miss | W by 4, A | miss | W by 6, H | n/a | W by 11, A | W by 2, H | 11/23, A | L by 23, A | L by 17, H | L by 26, H | 11/17, H | miss | Iowa | 6 |
| 7 | UW | W by 25, H | miss | W by 14, H | miss | W by 12, H | L by 11, H | n/a | 11/17, H | L by 17, A | miss | 11/24, A | miss | L by 29, A | L by 14, A | UW | 7 |
| 8 | PU | miss | L by 29, A | W by 4, A | W by 10, H | miss | L by 2, A | 11/17, A | n/a | L by 14, H | miss | W by 31, H | 11/24, H | L by 39, H | miss | PU | 8 |
| 9 | UNL | W by 46, H | W by 5, H | W in OT, H | 11/17, A | miss | 11/23, H | W by 17, H | W by 14, A | n/a | miss | L by 25, A | miss | L by 19, A | miss | UNL | 9 |
| 10 | MD | W by 21, H | 11/17, A | miss | W by 21, A | 11/24, H | W by 23, H | miss | miss | miss | n/a | L by 29, A | W by 2, H | L by 30, A | L by 27, A | MD | 10 |
| 11 | MN | miss | W by 16, H | 11/17, A | miss | miss | W by 17, A | 11/24, H | L by 31, A | W by 25, H | W by 29, H | n/a | L by 7, A | W by 24, H | miss | MN | 11 |
| 12 | IU | 11/17, H | W by 23, H | miss | W by 14, A | W by 5, A | W by 26, A | miss | 11/24, A | miss | L by 2, A | W by 7, H | n/a | miss | L by 7, H | IU | 12 |
| 13 | ILL | miss | miss | 11/24, H | miss | W by 39, A | 11/17,A | W by 29, H | W by 39, A | W by 19, H | W by 30, H | L by 24, A | miss | n/a | L by 21, H | ILL | 13 |
| 14 | RU | W by 35, A | W by 49, H | W by 3, A | 11/24, H | 11/17, A | miss | W by 14, H | miss | miss | W by 27, H | miss | W by 7, A | W by 21, A | n/a | RU | 14 |
| . | Team | M | tOSU | NU | MSU | PSU | Iowa | UW | PU | UNL | MD | MN | IU | ILL | RU | Team | . |
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | . | Rank |
-
Tough to make much sense of spots 4-12
1 Wolverines
2 Buckeyes
3 Nittany Lions
.
4 Spartans
5 Wildcats
6 Hawkeyes
7 Badgers
8 Boilermakers
9 Terrapins
10 Cornhuskers
11 Golden Gophers
12 Hoosiers
.
13 Fighting Illini
14 Scarlet Knights
-
1. Michigan: Run the ball and play defense
2. Northwestern: A no brainer if you forget about their nonconference performance
3. OSU: Nice to see them win with defense and special teams for once
4. PSU: Banged up, but solid victory
5. MSU: Played Tressel ball, got Tresseled. If healthy much higher
6. Iowa: Can't seem to pull these games out
7. Wisconsin: Passing game has gone south for winter
8. Purdue: What the hell
9. Nebraska: Offense on a fast track
10. Maryland: Not quite enough
11. Indiana: Deserved a tight win
12. Minnesota: What the hell
13. Illinois: Well at least they beat someone besides Rutgers
14. Rutgers: Welp, at least they scored
-
Well, this is the week that Indy, Minn and Neb decided to show that they don't totally suck and Purdue, ILL, and MD may not be as good as thought.
Also NW proved it can win the important games while Iowa just can't.
1. Mich
2. NW
3. OSU
4. MSU
5. PSU
6. Iowa
7. Wisc
8. Purdue
9. Neb
10. Minn
11. ILL
12. MD
13. Indy
14. Rut
-
1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
3. Northwestern
4. Michigan State
5. Penn State
6. Iowa
7. Wisconsin
8. Purdue
9. Nebraska
10. Maryland
11. Indiana
12. Minnesota
13. Illinois
14. Rutgers
-
https://twitter.com/BYCTOM/status/1061641319255363585
-
(Last,...,Preseason)
1. Michigan (1,1,1,2,3,3,3,4,4,4,3) -- yup ...
2. OSU (2,2,2,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1) -- now it's real
----
3. Northwestern (5,5,8,7,8,10,10,9,8,8,8) -- so weird; see GIF above
4. MSU (3,7,7,5,6,6,6,6,6,3,2)
5. PSU (4,3,4,3,2,2,2,2,3,7,6)
----
6. Iowa (8,4,5,6,5,5,5,3,5,5,5)
7. UW (7,6,3,4,4,4,4,5,2,2,4)
8. Purdue (6,8,6,8,9,9,9,11,9,9,7)
9. Nebraska (9,10,10,12,12,12,11,10,10,10,10)
10. Minnesota (11,11,12,11,11,11,12,12,12,12,12)
11. Indiana (12,12,11,10,7,7,7,7,11,11,11)
12. Maryland (10,9,9,9,10,8,8,8,7,6,9)
13. Illinois (13,13,13,13,13,13,13,13,14,14,14)
14. Rutger (14,14,14,14,14,14,14,14,13,13,13)
-
Last week in parenthesis, why not try to keep my transitive rankings. They still work if you can call Purdue over OSU a fluke, which I think you can, because I'm still keeping Purdue in the top group despite being the first team to pick up a loss against the bottom group (in blowout fashion nonetheless). Bottom half you no longer can, Indiana winning over Maryland messes everything up...
- MICHIGAN (1) - but it looks like it'll still come down to needing a win in Columbus at this point
- NORTHWESTERN (2) - Cats become the 7th Big Ten team to ever qualify for Indy
- OHIO STATE (5) - defense, and particularly special teams came up huge
- MICHIGAN STATE (3) - offense needs to at least give this defense SOMETHING
- PENN STATE (6) - after that first touchdown, defense looked as good as they have all year
- WISCONSIN (7) - Jonathan Taylor may as well have been the only Badger to get on the bus
- PURDUE (4) - ick
- IOWA (8) - 2018 just feels like one big missed opportunity for the Hawkeyes
- NEBRASKA (9) - winning out suddenly doesn't seem like a long shot at all
- MINNESOTA (12) - good luck ranking 10-12, I'll just go with the hot hand
- INDIANA (13) - see above
- MARYLAND (10) - same as Minnesota
- ILLINOIS (11) - that should officially end any bowl shot
- RUTGERS (14) - that was a nice play they had
-
Ohio State would be favored on a neutral field over everyone except one.
The last five are obviously not good at all, and the remainder in the middle are middlin'.
-
1) Michigan: Obviously.
2) Ohio State: shouldn't be much debate here, either.
3) Penn State: On a neutral field, I would pick them over everyone else.
4) Northwestern: ?? Finding a way to win...in conference. This team lost to Akron and beat Rutgers by 3. But it also gave Michigan the best BigTen game it's had to date (don't forget Wolverines, ND beat you with their now-benched quarterback).
5) Iowa: still surprised the Hawkeyes lost to Northwestern.
6)...Michigan State?
7) Wisconsin? But for the injuries, this would have been a good, but not great team.
8) Who knows. Nebraska, on the right trajectory?
9) Purdue: but that was an ass kicking by Minnesota.
10) Maryland: on the strength of overall record.
11) Indiana
12) Minnesota
13) Illinois
14) Rutgers
-
1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
3. Northwestern
4. Michigan State
5. Penn State
6. Wisconsin
7. Purdue
8. Iowa
9. Nebraska
10. Maryland
11. Indiana
12. Minnesota
13. Illinois
14. Rutgers
-
1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
3. Northwestern
4. Michigan State
5. Iowa
6. Penn State
7. Wisconsin
8. Purdue
9. Maryland
10. Minnesota
11. Nebraska
12. Indiana
13. Illinois
14. Rutgers
-
I'll post mine later but just wanted to put this out there: I think the two hardest teams to rank are Northwestern and Iowa.
Northwestern:
They don't look very good. Their OOC was horrible and the three point win over Rutgers looks even worse. That said, they are 6-1 in conference and the only loss was by a mere FG to the unanimous best team in the league.
Iowa:
They look like one of the better teams in this league and I noticed that a bunch of people have them ranked in the top-6. Their losses were all close (2 points, 4 points, 6 points, 11 points after leading with about 60 seconds to go). The problem is that they have played for decent B1G teams and they are 0-4. At some point the eye test has to yield to the results.
Another tricky one is Nebraska. By overall record they deserve to be 10th or worse but right now? I'm not sure that they wouldn't beat most of the conference on a neutral field tomorrow. I think they are a very serious threat to win their last two games (vsMSU, @IA).
-
Massey composite rankings (102 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...
- Alabama (1)
- Clemson (2)
- Georgia (3)
- MICHIGAN (4)
- Notre Dame (5)
- Oklahoma (6)
- LSU (7)
- OHIO STATE (9)
- West Virginia (8)
- Central Florida (10)
- Washington State (14)
- PENN STATE (13)
- Florida (17)
- Mississippi State (12)
- Utah (22)
- Texas (-)
- Washington (19)
- Iowa State (24)
- Kentucky (11)
- Utah State (23)
- Missouri (20)
- Syracuse (-)
- Texas A&M (-)
- Boise State (-)
- Fresno State (16)
- 27. Michigan State (15)
- 28. Iowa (18)
- 34. Northwestern (42)
- 41. Purdue (32)
- 43. Wisconsin (41)
- 60. Maryland (56)
- 62. Indiana (75)
- 68. Minnesota (84)
- 86. Nebraska (89)
- 101. Illinois (102)
- 117. Rutgers (118)
-
For some reason this year this seems to be getting harder rather than easier each week.
- Michigan: This one is easy.
- Ohio State: This one is too. There is an argument for Northwestern but only if you completely ignore their OOC and then treat the squeaker over RU as a fluke.
- Northwestern: I wanted to rank them lower but I just can't justify it . . . yet.
- Michigan State: My decision here was between MSU and PSU. MSU won the H2H and looked better against two of the three common opponents so I went with MSU.
- Penn State: Those back-to-back home losses to the Buckeyes and Spartans really sting. Even winning just one of those the Nittany Lions would likely finish the year 10-2, easily in the top-10 and headed for a NY6 bowl.
- Purdue: I am the highest vote for Purdue and it is not because they beat my team. I also realize that the Boilermakers just got blown out by Minnesota. There are a few reasons for this. First, I'm basically ignoring PU's big win over tOSU and PU's big loss to MN. I just don't know how else to handle that. Neither result makes much sense and they basically offset so I'm just ignoring them. Second, I have Iowa lower than most of you (see below). Third, I just don't think UW looks very good right now.
- Wisconsin: What could have been . . .
- Iowa: Most of you have Iowa higher. Only @FearlessF , @ELA , and I have them this low. By eye test they look better but the problem is that they have played four competent B1G teams (NU, PU, PSU, UW) and they went 0-4. I know that the losses were close but they went 0-4. I can't prop them up on eye-test.
- Nebraska: There is a lot of recency bias in this ranking. Based on their whole season the Cornhuskers do not deserve to be ranked anywhere near this high. They started out looking terrible and 0-5. Since then then are 3-2 with close losses to the teams that I have ranked #2 and #3 along with blowout wins over #11 and #13.
- Indiana: My theory here is that the Hoosiers looked better against the top of the league than the rest of the bottom teams.
- Minnesota: Yes, I know they just blew out my #6, but they also recently got blown out by my #13.
- Maryland: I put the Terps this low because this is a power ranking and they just lost their QB.
- Illinois: Another weird one. In their last two games the Illini blew out Minnesota and got blown out by #9 Nebraska.
- Rutgers: This one is easy.
-
Results posted, votes through me (10 voters).
Movement this week:
- Northwestern was up one, passing MSU
- Michigan State was down one, passed by NU
- Penn State was up one, passing Purdue
- Iowa was up two, passing UW and PU
- UW was even but passed PU and got passed by Iowa
- Purdue was down three, passed by PSU, IA and UW
- Minnesota was up two, passing IU and IL
- IU was even but passed IL and got passed by MN
- Illinois was down two, passed by IU and MN
Non-contiguous votes:
- Fearless, ELA, and I voted Iowa #8, everybody else had them #5 or #6
- LittlePig, Anon, ELA, and I voted Maryland #12, everybody else had them #9 or #10
- LittlePig voted Illinois #11, everybody else had them #13
Looking ahead to this weekend all 14 teams have B1G games this weekend but the matchups are not terribly intriguing at least by Power Ranking:
- #12 Indiana at #1 Michigan
- #2 Ohio State at #10 Maryland
- #3 Northwestern at #11 Minnesota
- #4 Michigan State at #9 Nebraska
- #5 Penn State at #14 Rutgers
- #6 Iowa at #13 Illinois
- #7 Wisconsin at #8 Purdue
With the exception of UW/PU the teams playing are all at least five spots apart in the rankings. In addition to that one I also find MSU@UNL interesting to see if UNL's improvement is enough and NU@MN because NU has shown themselves capable of REALLY bad performances so you never know.