CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Temp430 on September 11, 2017, 02:51:36 PM
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The Falcons arrive in Ann Arbor well rested after a bye following the Sept. 2nd 62-0 drubbing of VMI. Michigan is favored in this game by 25 points. Kick off is at Noon and the game may be seen on BTN.
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Air Force had a good record last year against a rather weak schedule (Navy was their toughest game) and was also challenged by some of the lower-level MWC teams. Of course, last time they played here in 2012, they provided a scare.
I think the defense will be able to handle the triple option, though I'm certainly concerned about avoiding injuries on the DLine in particular with how Air Force blocks. If they can force some turnovers, that'd be great, but I don't see Air Force having a good enough passing game to keep the defense from selling out on the run. If they can outscore the opposing offense, again (7-3 v Florida, 16-14 v Cincinnati), even better.
Offensively, I just want to see fewer mistakes (turnovers and penalties), more drives ending in TDs instead of FGs, and some better playcalling. If they can come out strong in the first half that would be really encouraging to allow for more second-half snaps for the backups on both sides. They should be able to score 40+, but I'm not convinced that they will.
It's also frustrating that the special teams (specifically punts and returns) have gotten much worse compared to the past two years. I expected some regression but not this much. The problems are fixable, though.
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Watch your knees
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The Wolverines are 2-0 vs Air Force. Both games at home.
24-7 in 1964, and 31-25 in 2012.
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gotta stop the fullback
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Hate playing the academies. Hate playing triple option teams even more. Just PRAYING no one gets hurt by all of the cheap cut blocking. Knock on wood. I don't care if Michigan wins by 1 as long as the defensive players stay healthy. I really hope that Speight has a turn around game and stops playing like shit- but I doubt it.
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Air Force's leading rusher is named Timothy McVey.
He was born 8 months before Oklahoma City, but I'm sorry, his parents had to change that.
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Shows you what kind of week this is in the conference, when this is your game of the week. Air Force put up as dominating a performance as you'll see against VMI in Week 1, and then was off last week. That's very little to go on. VMI is awful, they followed that by losing to Division II Catawba. But the stats from that opener are eye popping, even for a 62-0 game. Air Force outgained VMI 647-95, and had more first down 32-6. VMI used three quarterbacks, and one, Duncan Hodges managed to go 5-10...for 3 yards. I didn't even think 0.6 ypc was possible with 5 completions, thne you see their leading receiver had 4 catches for 16 yards, yet his long catch was for 17 yards, meaning his other 3 catches totaled negative yardage. As shaky as Wilton Speight as looked, I think he'll fare a little better. The coaches seem confident in him, at least publicly, but the fans are turning, and rightfully so. He's barely completing 50% of his passes, worst among starters in the conference, and his 39.3 Total QBR is ahead of only Klye Bolin and Chayce Crouch. His weapons have been better than expected, particularly a pair of Hoke recruits that are finally showing they have no intention of being passed over by Harbaugh's flashy classes, Ty Isaac and Grant Perry. Isaac has put forth his second and third career 100 yard games in the first two, and the only previous one was against UNLV where he did most of his work on a singular 76 yard run. He's 6th in the Big Ten in rushing, but splitting carries. His 8.0 ypc is behind only Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkly and Ty Johnson. Perry has had arguably the best two games of his career, after being suspending during the offseason for a felony conviction stemming from an arrest last fall. Harbaugh gave him another chance, and so far he's earning his playing time. Much like Ohio State against Army, Michigan is well equipped to shut down a triple option attack with a dominant front four. Air Force is a bit more of a passing threat than Army is, and has shown in the past against Power 5 teams, they'll pass even more than they necessarily feel comfortable doing, simply because they have to. But it won't be enough to have any sort of consistent attack. They will challenge Speight at times, and they may not pass enough to give the Michigan secondary a chance to assist with a score, but I don't think Wolverine fans need to sweat it out as much as they did last time Air Force visited.
MICHIGAN 38, AIR FORCE 17
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Wisconsin at BYU seems interesting. The Badgers might need to limit their bratwurst intake this week to get around at altitude. BYU used to be good.
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I'm most interested in watching speight, he's gotta play better if UM wants to win the BIG.
Not that he's been bad, but I read a story, I think on ESPN, that against the blitz he's only completing like 10% of his passes. that's abysmal.
when he's got time, he can definitely make some nice throws. and I've been pretty impressed with the Michigan run game thus far, it at least to me appears better than last year. that could help Speight as well.
I agree, I'm tired of playing, Army, Navy Air Force. The games are not entertaining to watch, there's really no benefit in terms of beating them, and you really gain nothing but a wasted week of practice you won't use the rest of the season unless you get Georgia Tech in a bowl game.
Although, it is nice to give the academies a pay day, and the pregame with the service members is nice, I guess i'll try to focus on that when I'm bored in the 3rd quarter.
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I agree, I'm tired of playing, Army, Navy Air Force. The games are not entertaining to watch, there's really no benefit in terms of beating them, and you really gain nothing but a wasted week of practice you won't use the rest of the season unless you get Georgia Tech in a bowl game.
Although, it is nice to give the academies a pay day, and the pregame with the service members is nice, I guess i'll try to focus on that when I'm bored in the 3rd quarter.
BOOOO, BOOOO THIS MAN! (The option can be beautiful if you have an eye for it, on this hill I will die)
Anyway, Air Force is a kind of fascinating team more for the defense than the offense. The offense is semi-standard, efficient running (11th nationally), not all that explosive, passing game that's not efficient but will bomb you if you're not careful.
The defense however is a bit of a rarity, a group that won't bend but can break. They were top 30 in stifling drives, in the 120s in stopping explosive plays. That was mostly about a crushing run D last season, and their pass rush was pretty good two years ago.
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Another thing I noticed Michigan needs to work on is finishing drives.
IMO, red zone conversion rate is a bunk stat. Would you rather be 1-2 with a TD or 2-2 with 2 FGs? I'd prefer Red Zone TD rate or points per red zone trip.
Michigan has 1 touchdown in 6 red zone trips this year (17%). Rutgers is the only other Big Ten team (33%), below 50% in that stat.
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BOOOO, BOOOO THIS MAN! (The option can be beautiful if you have an eye for it, on this hill I will die)
Anyway, Air Force is a kind of fascinating team more for the defense than the offense. The offense is semi-standard, efficient running (11th nationally), not all that explosive, passing game that's not efficient but will bomb you if you're not careful.
The defense however is a bit of a rarity, a group that won't bend but can break. They were top 30 in stifling drives, in the 120s in stopping explosive plays. That was mostly about a crushing run D last season, and their pass rush was pretty good two years ago.
This.
Diversity of offenses is one of the things that makes college football unique, and the loss of offensive diversity over the past 15 or so years has done more to diminish the sport in my eyes than alternate uniforms or Big Ten opening week games.
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Another thing I noticed Michigan needs to work on is finishing drives.
IMO, red zone conversion rate is a bunk stat. Would you rather be 1-2 with a TD or 2-2 with 2 FGs? I'd prefer Red Zone TD rate or points per red zone trip.
Michigan has 1 touchdown in 6 red zone trips this year (17%). Rutgers is the only other Big Ten team (33%), below 50% in that stat.
SBNation's Bill Connelly goes with points per drive that includes at least a first down inside the opponents 40. Basically saying, if you get a first down inside the 40, you can come away with nothing, but probably shouldn't. It doesn't quite isolate like red zone since you get credit for an 80-yard TD, but still useful.
Michigan is averaging something like 3.14 per such trip.
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I read and listened to TQBR. I will take the qb that wins, thank you very much. Liars figure and figures lie.
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I incidentally met an AF fan tonight. He seemed pessimistic predicting a 45-14 score. As I said earlier, the biggest thing defensively is to just avoid injuries due to their blocking scheme, as well as big busts on the edges and when they try to pass. Offensively, I just want to not see any turnovers or other big mistakes and for them to control the LOS with big plays through the passing game as needed (apparently AF is quite aggressive defensively, so there is great potential for both TOs and TDs).
I'll say 34-6 as my prediction.... I'm turning 30 on Sunday so I certainly hope it's not too scary (the Colorado game was on my birthday last year, for comparison).
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Michigan's defense continues to play very well. On offense Michigan has a solid running game and feature back: Ty Isaac. What they need to find to be a contender is a consistent passing game. The issue with the passing game is not all on Speight. Right now I don't think Michigan can score enough points to beat the better teams in the Big Ten.