| In the preseason this looked like it might be an early preview of the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. Instead, the winner is simply trying to keep postseason hopes alive for a good bowl, while the loser tumbles to 4 losses. For Wisconsin, they are on the edge of territory they haven't been in quite some time. Bucky hasn't lost four games, period, in five years, and they haven't lost 4 of their first 6 since starting 3-4 in 2008. Part of the problem is injuries, and part is a receiving core that never seemed to recover from the suspension of Quintez Cephus. This looked on paper like potentially the best Wisconsin offense ever. Instead they are mired squarely in the middle of the Big Ten in almost every offensive statistic. There have been plenty of Wisconsin teams who have been dominant defensively, and been just good enough enough offensively, but the problem is that the defense has been entirely average too. And you get an average football team. Penn State still has weapons, but the offensive line has regressed to the point that they've been rendered mostly ineffective. Nothing the Nittany Lions tried last week did anything to slow down the Michigan rush. Much like the Michigan-Michigan State game, even when Penn State only trailed by 14 late in the 3rd, it didn't really feel like they had a shot. Can Wisconsin get that same type of pressure? They looked pretty good last week, but judging performances against Rutgers might be about as irrelevant an exercise as you can get. Likewise, railing against an offensive line too much for not holding up against Michigan's front seems harsh. But this has been weeks in the making. Even against Ohio State, it was a lot of McSorley as a one man show, covering up their issues. Penn State, at home, should move the ball better, and right now I'm concerned about just how many points Wisconsin is capable of putting up right now. They ran for nearly 7 ypc against Rutgers, and still only scored 31 points, because they have absolutely zero passing game. Hornibrook returned for the game, but it's clear he's not right yet. Jack Coan actually looked better than Hornibrook when he came in, but how much of the playbook is he actually working with. Wisconsin should have the best running back and offensive line in the nation, but Hornibrook needs to at least be solid, and based on Adjusted QBR, he's been below average (<50) in 4 of his past 7 games, including three in a row now (3.9 against Michigan, 43.6 against Illinois and 10.0 against Rutgers). Fortunately for Wisconsin, McSorley is clearly not healthy either. McSorley showed early in the year against Ohio State that he's capable of putting this team on his back when healthy, but right now he can't do that. The help he got from the running game has disappeared. Since his huge night at Illinois, Miles Sanders has run for only 70.6 ypg, and the one statistically solid game he had (162 yards against Michigan State) he ran for all but 38 of those yards on two long runs. It's partly on him, and partly on a receiving group that is doing absolutely nothing to keep defenses from stacking the box. This is the first meeting between the schools since the 2016 Big Ten Championship Game, and while this isn't that Penn State offense, this certainly isn't that Wisconsin defense either. This one might come down to which quarterback does more to force the opposing defense out of the box, and can get their running and play action going. While I trust McSorley over Hornibrook, I have a feeling it might coem down to Stevens vs. Coan. I also trust Penn State more in that scenario. |