CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ELA on October 22, 2018, 12:30:52 PM
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Apparently Lewerke was hurt all last week, almost didn't go, and now might be out for the Purdue game. Harbaugh noticed.
https://twitter.com/AaronMcMann/status/1054405104688865285
I truly have no idea how we are going to beat anyone left save Rutgers, this is basically our second team offense at this point.
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Apparently the line opened at -2 MSU, which to be less then 3 points in a home game is basically "coin flip".
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Seems like easy money to bet Purdue. I guess only counter is the intangible factor of Purdue trying to amp back up after their jihad game. But strictly personnel and game film, Purdue looks like they should be a substantial favorite.
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MSU still has far more STARZ, top to bottom, on their roster than Purdue does.
Now, what plays well for Purdue is scheme. MSU is more pro-style [like Boston College was], and I think Purdue is better built to defend that than the spread. Against OSU, it's not that Purdue stopped OSU from gaining yards. They just managed to stop them from turning yards into touchdowns. Against a more pro-style attack, Purdue might slow them down more, especially if Lewerke doesn't play.
But MSU is favored for a reason.
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Yeah, but they weren't playing like that, even when healthy, on the offensive side. Down to #96 now in S&P+. And that was with a healthy and able Lewerke and Felton Davis. I also think Purdue is a particularly bad matchup for Michigan State's defense. They are stout up the middle, and fundamentally sounds, generally, but slow on the edges. I imagine Blough will get the ball out quick, and Purdue is more than happy abandoning the run game if need be. I don't think we see another 49-20 type game.
Maybe something closer to 31-17 or 31-20? I think the defense can hold MSU in it a while, if they can prevent big plays, but it's clear the 3 and outs are wearing on them. They just looked beat up in the 4th quarter on Saturday. Nothing left in the tank. As good as Willis has been this year, he is going to be a mismatch in coverage constantly, just like against Utah State, Arizona State and Northwestern.
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Don't forget that Dantonio has won like 8 straight vs Purdue after Tiller went 3-0 against Saban and I think 3-1 against John L Smith.
So many of them have been close, but MSU has made more plays to win.
I was surprised MSU is favored the way Purdue is playing offensively, but if Lewerke is truly out Purdue will truly have to have partied all week and not focused to lose.
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Don't forget that Dantonio has won like 8 straight vs Purdue after Tiller went 3-0 against Saban and I think 3-1 against John L Smith.
So many of them have been close, but MSU has made more plays to win.
I was surprised MSU is favored the way Purdue is playing offensively, but if Lewerke is truly out Purdue will truly have to have partied all week and not focused to lose.
I would bet Purdue covered a good deal of those. Remember Purdue gave MSU game after game when MSU was at it's best, and Purdue was at it's lowest.
MSU has a 7 game winning streak going back to 2007.
2007 and 2008 were comfortable wins, but the last 5 have not been.
2009, MSU got bowl eligible over a 4-7 Purdue team by ending the game on a 17-3 run to turn around an 11 point deficit with 11 minutes to go.
2010, a 4-7 Purdue team almost derailed 10-1 MSU's first Big Ten championship in two decades, but again a 22-3 run in the 4th quarter turned a 15 point deficit with 10 minutes to play into a 4 point win
2013, MSU's best team in a generation needed a late TD to go ahead 14-0 over a 1-6 Purdue team. It was 7-0 almost the whole game, thanks to a defensive TD
2014, 5-1 MSU got a pick 6 in the final 2 minutes, when Purdue had the ball, down 7, with a chance to tie or win
2015, MSU's CFP team raced out to a 21-0 lead, and hung on for a 24-21 win over 1-4 Purdue, who had the ball, past midfield late in the game, with a chance to tie or win.
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Lewerke listed as the starter in the Depth Chart released today. Also includes Stewart, Nailor and Hayes, so while we are still down our top 2 WRs, it seems like for now everyone behind them should play. Beedle still out, as is Josiah Scott, who teased he might play last week. Scott is reaching the point where if he gets healthy it would still count as a redshirt year if he plays.
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Some people here seem to think that the emotional angle is not important but not me. I believe that this is a very real possibility.
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Some people here seem to think that the emotional angle is not important but not me. I believe that this is a very real possibility.
I agree, I just don't know what it is. Is MSU pissed or defeated? Is Purdue caught in a hangover, or rejuvenated?
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I agree, I just don't know what it is. Is MSU pissed or defeated? Is Purdue caught in a hangover, or rejuvenated?
Exactly and that makes this game nearly impossible to project:
- Pissed off MSU vs hungover PU = MSU blowout win.
- Deflated MSU vs rejuvenated PU = PU blowout win.
I wouldn't be surprised by either or anything in between.
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I would bet Purdue covered a good deal of those. Remember Purdue gave MSU game after game when MSU was at it's best, and Purdue was at it's lowest.
MSU has a 7 game winning streak going back to 2007.
2007 and 2008 were comfortable wins, but the last 5 have not been.
2009, MSU got bowl eligible over a 4-7 Purdue team by ending the game on a 17-3 run to turn around an 11 point deficit with 11 minutes to go.
2010, a 4-7 Purdue team almost derailed 10-1 MSU's first Big Ten championship in two decades, but again a 22-3 run in the 4th quarter turned a 15 point deficit with 10 minutes to play into a 4 point win
2013, MSU's best team in a generation needed a late TD to go ahead 14-0 over a 1-6 Purdue team. It was 7-0 almost the whole game, thanks to a defensive TD
2014, 5-1 MSU got a pick 6 in the final 2 minutes, when Purdue had the ball, down 7, with a chance to tie or win
2015, MSU's CFP team raced out to a 21-0 lead, and hung on for a 24-21 win over 1-4 Purdue, who had the ball, past midfield late in the game, with a chance to tie or win.
Oh I know. I watched all the plays in all, there in person for all the games at Purdue.
The 2010 collapse was pure Danny Hope coaching goodness served to you guys on a platter. I remember the long thread back and forth on the old board. you and a couple MSU posters were all doom and gloom, we kept telling you guys don't worry, banana peel is coming. Was there a blocked punt in there? Feels like it.
2009 hurt as that kept Purdue from a bowl when we really needed some momentum. Team started 1-5, upset #7 OSU and would have bowled with that game.
2015 was when frosh Markel Jones rushed for like 176 yds against what feels like a #7 or so MSU squad. Although we sucked, fans were really excited to see what he could do the next week at home. Naturally Hazell and Co gave him like 10 touches. Really great staff we had before Brohm.
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C Matt Allen on crutches in a walking boot, but Josiah Scott has been cleared to start practicing.
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Exactly and that makes this game nearly impossible to project:
- Pissed off MSU vs hungover PU = MSU blowout win.
- Deflated MSU vs rejuvenated PU = PU blowout win.
I wouldn't be surprised by either or anything in between.
Umm I'll take door 2 por favor.
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It is nice to be able to look forward to Saturday's again with an inspired interest.
And Medina, I never said the emotional angle is not important, football is a game driven by emotion and energy. You have to be fired up and ready to fly around the field. I just don't agree that there is always an emotional let down after beating OSU or almost beating OSU in Minnesota's case. Do teams come out flat sometimes? Absolutely. Do we have statistical sampling to show when that happens? I have never seen the data if it exists. Teams show up flat for many different reasons and not always predictable. I don't anticipate that Brohm will let this team have that problem.
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@boilerbanger (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=56) , I didn't mean to single out you or anyone else. I have just seen this debate a few times where at least some posters have minimized that angle.
I completely agree that the emotional angle is not predictable which is why I think this game is such a crapshoot. I can see a plausible potential reason for Purdue to come out flat (hangover effect) and I can see a plausible potential reason for MSU to come out flat (deflated). You just never know.
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One team just lost their Superbowl and the other won theirs.
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One thing Brohm and staff have done exceptionally well is get this team to play above it's star ranking. I don't see that changing. This team is all in on the coaching staff.
On top of that, the tOSU win only puts them at 4-3. It's not like they have already locked up a bowl and think they can coast through the rest of the season. They know they play 3 straight games against ranked (or previously ranked) teams.
Purdue is going to make big plays on offense. It's Brohms specialty. A key to the game is how MSU responds. If they hold in the red zone, while establishing a balance on offense, they can win. If the Boilers big plays deflate the Spartan D it will be a blow out. Purdue has found it's rhythm since the Mizzou game. They will put up points and yards on everyone they play from here on out.
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https://twitter.com/TheOnlyColors/status/1055098986166673409?s=19
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MSU 20
Purdue 16
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One team just lost their Superbowl and the other won theirs.
Woooo weeee. Now you dunnit.
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One thing Brohm and staff have done exceptionally well is get this team to play above it's star ranking. I don't see that changing. This team is all in on the coaching staff.
Exactly. And Holt actually has to have a handler to hold his belt to keep him from going on the field. I'm pretty sure if he sees the defense looking lackadaisical, he'll kill someone right there on the sideline to fire them up.
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https://twitter.com/TheOnlyColors/status/1055098986166673409?s=19
Classy, and much appreciated from the Purdue fanbase.
Win or lose, cancer sucks.
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https://twitter.com/TheOnlyColors/status/1055098986166673409?s=19
This is awesome.
Ohhhhhhhh-OH. CANCER SUCKS!
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No worries Medina, classy move by State on the tweet. Purdue 31 MSU 20
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Cool and classy by the MSU fans. I can't believe the amount of play and attention Tyler is getting, it;s one of those organic things you can't predict. Can't beat the young man's attitude and outlook.
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I just saw the Tyler get interviewed by Scott Van Pelt. I was moved.
They talked about how Stuart Scott has been an inspiration for Tyler. Van Pelt quoted Scott's Jimmy V Award speech "You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, and in the manner in which you live."
Van Pelt ended the interview sharing his dream. "You are an inspiring young man, and I have a dream that you will recover and be my co-host on this show. Oh, and it is my show, and it is my stage and 100% I can make this call. You let me know when you feel well enough to be here in this seat next to me and I would be honored to have you as a co-host."
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Exactly. And Holt actually has to have a handler to hold his belt to keep him from going on the field. I'm pretty sure if he sees the defense looking lackadaisical, he'll kill someone right there on the sideline to fire them up.
Lol, I think you are probably right...
https://gfycat.com/boilinggleamingemperorpenguin
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I just saw the Tyler get interviewed by Scott Van Pelt. I was moved.
They talked about how Stuart Scott has been an inspiration for Tyler. Van Pelt quoted Scott's Jimmy V Award speech "You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, and in the manner in which you live."
Van Pelt ended the interview sharing his dream. "You are an inspiring young man, and I have a dream that you will recover and be my co-host on this show. Oh, and it is my show, and it is my stage and 100% can make this call. You let me know when you feel well enough to be here in this seat next to me and I would be honored to have you as a co-host."
Thanks for sharing this, news I would otherwise have missed. Hoping this happens.
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Sounding more and more like it'll be Lombardi.
Matt Allen is now out.
Somehow our backup punter, who we had been using since Hartbargers injury also now tore his ACL.
Splendid.
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I knew about the starting QB and C, but the back-up punter? That's as good a symbol as any of injuries running deep.
I know he had a bad year but Michigan fans are still talking about that punt where he one-handedly OBJ'd that bad longsnap and also booted it 60 yards. Bummer all around. Any chance the back-up's back-up is young and talented (but not ready) instead of old and untalented (and not ready)?
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heck, that's a symbol of crazy injuries and being cursed with injuries
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I think I saw somewhere that the 3rd string punter for MSU was actually a QB.
I can see it now. Purdue forces a punt and goes full blitz to block. Someone gets a hand on the ball, but the Punter / QB manages to get the ball back and throw a 60 yard strike downfield for a touchdown, sealing a win.
That's what I'm expecting. We at Purdue can't have nice things.
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I think I saw somewhere that the 3rd string punter for MSU was actually a QB.
I can see it now. Purdue forces a punt and goes full blitz to block. Someone gets a hand on the ball, but the Punter / QB manages to get the ball back and throw a 60 yard strike downfield for a touchdown, sealing a win.
That's what I'm expecting. We at Purdue can't have nice things.
It is. Except he's our #2 QB, and will be starting QB this week. So hopefully they don't have him out there punting
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MSU's football team sounds like what we're traditionally use to for hoops news over the last decade and football under Hope when like 1/3 of the starters were injured in any given week.
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Yeah, there was one year we needed a win at Purdue to share the title with them. Got IIRC convincingly after Hunmel got hurt. Might be our last win in Mackey. Maybe 2011?
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Done trying to figure this team out. Defense played out of their minds.
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Done trying to figure this team out. Defense played out of their minds.
It’s called a damn good coach.
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MSU outplayed Purdue all game, but failed to execute [i.e. actually catch the ball] well enough to make it the blowout that the game probably should have been.
I'm pissed at Purdue for not taking advantage of MSU tripping over themselves. MSU kept leaving the door wide open for Purdue to steal this one, but Purdue couldn't pull it off.
I'm sure MSU fans are livid that MSU let it remain as close as it was, too...
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It’s called a damn good coach.
And if Darrell Stewart could catch, there's about 21 points or more that MSU could have scored.
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It is. Except he's our #2 QB, and will be starting QB this week. So hopefully they don't have him out there punting
If a QB is the best punter on the team, I see no major drawback to rolling him out there.
I know in this instance that's not the case, but hypothetically speaking...