CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 22, 2018, 10:52:27 AM
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I will limit this discussion to the three 1-loss B1G teams: Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa. The two-loss teams (UW and PSU) have a theoretical shot but it would require chaos because there would need to be a whole bunch of upsets nationally before a 2-loss B1G Champion got in and, in Penn State's case, they would need a whole lot of upsets just to get into their divisional race.
#5, 7-1 Michigan:
The Wolverines clearly have the best CFP chance of the B1G teams. We had a discussion last week about whether or not they control their own destiny. I'm still not 100% convinced that they do and Ohio State's blowout loss to Purdue didn't help the Wolverines on that front. In theory, I could see a 12-1 Michigan them finishing behind a 12-1 or 11-1 non-champion Bama along with ND and the SEC and ACC Champions.
#11, 7-1 Ohio State:
IMHO, Ohio State's playoff chances are MUCH worse than Michigan's because the chances of a 12-1 Ohio State being behind a 12-1 or 11-1 non-champion Bama are much greater. Additionally, a 12-1 Ohio State would probably finish behind a 12-1 Texas or Oklahoma as well.
#18, 6-1 Iowa:
Iowa's loss is obviously better than Ohio State's, but the major problem for the Hawkeyes is that they do not control their own destiny even in the B1G-W. Iowa's chances of getting in at 11-1 are somewhere between slim and none so they basically are not in the discussion unless/until Wisconsin loses another game.
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More likely to leave Michigan behind would be 12-1 Oklahoma, 12-0 ND, 13-0 Alabama and Clemson.
It would be either Oklahoma or Michigan, and it could be close to a coin flip. If the other B1G teams appear to be weaker than expected and the other B12 teams finish strong, OU would probably get the nod. The best UM win would be over a 2 loss team or two.
Their best loss would be a good one of course, but so would a loss to Texas avenged in the CG (UGA last year).
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Would the optics of a win over Purdue in the Big Ten Ccg be OSU's best bet?
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Would the optics of a win over Purdue in the Big Ten Ccg be OSU's best bet?
I do not think so. I understand the idea of avenging the loss and thus neutralizing it, but if Ohio State wins out to finish 12-1 (not saying they will, just if) then everyone will already understand that the blowout loss to Purdue was just one of those crazy upsets that happen from time to time.
That said, I think Ohio State's best bet would be for their last two opponents (M and the B1G-W Champ) to be as highly ranked as possible so I would call it this:
- Ohio State wins out to finish 12-1 and B1G Champion.
- Michigan wins out until THE GAME such that it is between 10-1 Michigan and 10-1 Ohio State and probably gets Gameday and all of that.
- Wisconsin loses a game.
- Iowa wins out until the B1GCG such that it is between 11-1 Iowa and 11-1 Ohio State with both having plausible CFP aspirations.
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ND in the Big Wrinkle in the Porridge obviously.
Remaining opponents: Navy @ NW, FSU, Syracuse, @ USC.
NW and USC are 4-3. An upset by USC on the final week would of course knock them out with no chance to recover.
Their best wins are UM of course and Stanford, who doesn't look that great.
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I think a 12-1 Michigan gets in over a 1 loss pac or big 12 champ. I think 12-1 Oklahoma would be close, but currently I think they’d get in over those 2 conferences. They’d also get in over a 12-1 Clemson acc champ if the tigers tripped up somehow in the regular season.
Every contender should root for bama to win out, because if bama gets tripped up somewhere but dominates in their other 11 games I think they’d get in, even over a 12-1 Michigan team.
Much like Osu a couple years ago being put in the 2 slot even though they lost to penn st, the committee said Osu was a lock. If bama loses the committe won’t drop them any lower than 5 in my opinion and thus 11-1 bama just sitting there to go to playoffs.
I think Ohio st is Dunn, they’ve looked very average in virtually every game this year. I think they’d lose out to a 1 loss champ in every conference except maybe the pac, They’d def Lose to a 1 loss bama and it’d be close to a 1 loss ND.
Iowa’s interesting, I think they’ve played very good football. I think if the coaches in room look at tape and like what they see, I think they’d have a decent shot. They probably need to keep winning convingly to doubt the naysayers.
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I think a 12-1 Michigan gets in over a 1 loss pac or big 12 champ. I think 12-1 Oklahoma would be close, but currently I think they’d get in over those 2 conferences. They’d also get in over a 12-1 Clemson acc champ if the tigers tripped up somehow in the regular season.
Every contender should root for bama to win out, because if bama gets tripped up somewhere but dominates in their other 11 games I think they’d get in, even over a 12-1 Michigan team.
I agree. Only chance of a 1 loss Michigan being left out is undefeated Clemson and undefeated Notre Dame, LSU beats Bama close at home, and both teams otherwise win out, Alabama in dominating fashion. Would be an interesting test because we'd basically be looking at Alabama's MOV over what would be a very weak schedule. I still think the Committee wants to avoid that headache, and would still put Michigan in over them, but that's the ONLY way I would give even a slight chance of a 12-1 Michigan being left out.
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I can't see a 12-1 Big 10 champ getting left out. Just can't. More importantly, there's 12 other P5/ND schools left with 0-1 losses.
SEC
Bama
Georiga
UK
Florida
ACC
Clemson
NC State
ND
Pac
Wazzou
Big 12
WVU
Oklahoma
Texas
Wazzou does't have a good non-conference opponent, and with how that league has taken it on the chin, it's not beating the Big Ten. If ND wins, it's in. One loss, probably in over Michigan, cloudier if it's OSU. My gut is they'll go over whoever survives the Big 12, and Clemson easily if it slips up. SEC champ is in unless it has two losses. If Bama has one loss, it'll have to be to LSU. It won't have any great wins, best probably being A&M. I doubt that jumps any one-loss conference champ (would a two-loss conference champ), unless it gets stupid like 2011. It feels a little doomsday-y to go there, but maybe.
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Michigan wins out, their in. They control their own destiny.
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Blood bath this week in the top 25. Next Saturday Georgia@Kentucky and Alabama@LSU will go a long way to clearing the air in the SEC.
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The Texas loss potentially hurts Oklahoma (and helps Michigan).
An ND loss would clear matters up to some extent, but I don't expect one. NW?
If UGA beats UK next week, they win the SEC East. They could lose to Auburn the following week and have the H2H tie breakers on any other 2 loss teams as they would be undefeated in East play.
UK would also win the East if they beat UGA.
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The Texas loss potentially hurts Oklahoma (and helps Michigan).
An ND loss would clear matters up to some extent, but I don't expect one. NW?
Don’t sleep on Syracuse @ ND on Nov. 17. The Orange are 6-2 and should enter the top 25 this week for the first time in probably 16 or 17 years. Their two losses are both on the road in OT to Pitt and by 4 to Clemson. They blew 4th quarter leads in both of them.
That game looks a lot more interesting than it did in August.
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Great points K60,haven't followed 'Cuse and that game has the makings of an upset
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Go Orange!!
how did they blow it to Pitt?