CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Temp430 on October 22, 2018, 08:09:55 AM
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Penn State is favored by 5 in this game. Iowa is in the hunt for the West so it's do or die for them from here on out with a loss to the Badgers on the books.
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Think I have to root for Iowa here. I think Iowa gives us the best CCG from a neutral fan perspective. Although I'm not closing the book on Purdue being that team either.
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Think I have to root for Iowa here. I think Iowa gives us the best CCG from a neutral fan perspective. Although I'm not closing the book on Purdue being that team either.
Wisconsin still has the inside track. Wisconsin's schedule and Iowa's look strength equivalent. Iowa has three difficult games in a row. Iowa does not have the running game going all that well; against Maryland it was just a tangle of linemen, and very little open field to be found.
Wisconsin
@NU
Rutgers
@ PSU
@Purdue
Minn.
Iowa
@PSU
@Purdue
NU
@Illinois
Nebraska
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A few stats from the NCAA
Defense:
Iowa has the 5th ranked scoring defense @ 14.1 points per game.
Penn State has the 36th ranked scoring defense @ 20.0 points per game.
Iowa has the 3rd ranked total yards defense @ 258.1 yards per game.
Penn State has the 72nd ranked total yards defense @ 392.0 yard per game.
Offense:
Iowa has the 56th ranked offense @ 30.6 points per game.
Penn State has the 9th ranked scoring offense @ 42.6 points per game.
Iowa has the 75th ranked total yards offense @ 397.3 yards per game.
Penn State has the 15th ranked total yards offense @ 480.6 yards per game.
Penalty Yards:
Iowa 52.71 per game
Penn State 51.0 per game
Special teams seems to be about even. I didn't know this but Iowa is #1 in avg. kick off return yards per game; but Penn State is #10. Penn State is better at punt returns.
This may come down to turnovers.
Iowa 3 fumbles lost per game; Penn State 6.
Iowa has had 7 picks; Penn State 3.
Strength of Schedule to-date:
Per Sagarin, Iowa 28th, Penn State 37th.
Considering everything I have to say it should be a tie.
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I guess I'm pulling for the Nitts in this game. It would be better to see Michigan beat a ranked PSU team on Nov. 3rd. I'm just not sure they can beat a very good Iowa team with the way they're playing. If Penn State can get over being "Spartied" they can do some damage.
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I'm rooting for the West
and my home state team
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Penn State is favored by 5-6 points. There is one common opponent, Indiana.
Iowa 42
Indiana 16
Penn St 33
Indiana 28
Both games were at Indiana. On a neutral field I would think Iowa would be favored over Penn St. This will be the 4th game that Iowa's starting corner backs will probably not start due to injury, but the replacements are up to snuff. Iowa should have a fairly good chance at a win, at Penn State, notwithstanding the betting lines.
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A prediction I've felt confident about since before the Moorehead hire is that Franklin will be fired by PSU. That he just doesn't belong at the PSU level. Moorehead bought him extra time, no doubt. Maybe not this year but sooner than later, he gone. The only way he can change that is by hiring another Moorehead ... except one that is uninterested in moving on. And Franklin clearly didn't get someone of that caliber this offseason.
So I see this Iowa game as largely about the pace of the end of JF's tenure. Fast (by the end of 2020) or slow? Lose this one or go on masking the problems a little longer?
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I find this game interesting both for the divisional races (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=6185.0) and for the Power Rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=6140.0).
First on the divisional races:
Penn State might be out of it already but if they lose this they would need an extraordinarily unlikely* set of events to get to Indy. Iowa has a better chance but falling effectively two games behind UW would be difficult to recover from.
Power Rankings:
Right now Iowa is essentially tied for 2nd/3rd with Ohio State while Penn State is in fifth between UW and PU. An Iowa win would lock up second place for them at least for this week. A Penn State win would lock up second place for the Buckeyes and put PSU in contention with UW for third (assuming Wisconsin wins at Northwestern).
From my own biased Buckeye perspective I am rooting for Penn State, Northwestern, Michigan State, Maryland, and Indiana. Then next week's rankings will be:
- Michigan :sign0137:
- Ohio State
- Penn State
- Michigan State
- Northwestern/Purdue/Wisconsin/Iowa
- Northwestern/Purdue/Wisconsin/Iowa
- Northwestern/Purdue/Wisconsin/Iowa
- Northwestern/Purdue/Wisconsin/Iowa
- Maryland
- Indiana/Indiana/Nebraska
- Nebraska/Indiana/Nebraska
- Minnesota
- Illinois
- Rutgers
*How unlikely you ask? REALLY unlikely. Assuming PSU loses this weekend they would be three games behind Michigan in the loss column and effectively three games behind Ohio State (due to the H2H). A three-way tie with tOSU and M at 6-3 would probably work for Penn State because they will probably have a better cumulative B1G-W opponent's record but only if Michigan beats Ohio State (because if Ohio State beats Michigan then the Buckeyes would be 2-0 in the H2H2H and win there). Thus, that would require Michigan to lose to PSU and beat Ohio State but also lose their other two games (Rutgers and Indiana). Fat chance of that. The only other way would be for Ohio State to beat Michigan but lose their other three games (Nebraska, Michigan State, Maryland) and Michigan would still need to lose to either IU or RU. Bottom line, if Penn State loses this weekend they are effectively out of the race for Indy.
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Now that Franklin's donkey ears have officially popped back up, I could see Iowa pulling off the road win.
Or then again they could always go out there and get shellacked.
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From my own biased Buckeye perspective I am rooting for Penn State, Northwestern, Michigan State, Maryland, and Indiana. Then next week's rankings will be:
I don't know what I want or what Vegas is saying, but - gun to my head - I'd predict that all three of the highlighted lose. I probably want PSU to win (it's an alma mater, sure, but mostly because then next weekend is a bigger deal, and I'm renting an RV for a 25-person mixed fan party in the shadow of the stadium; that'll be more fun if PSU comes in as confident as possible). Having said it, I have very little faith in the Nits.
That game is mostly interesting to me in how the OL and McSorely respond to their first complete defense of the year.
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A prediction I've felt confident about since before the Moorehead hire is that Franklin will be fired by PSU. That he just doesn't belong at the PSU level. Moorehead bought him extra time, no doubt. Maybe not this year but sooner than later, he gone. The only way he can change that is by hiring another Moorehead ... except one that is uninterested in moving on. And Franklin clearly didn't get someone of that caliber this offseason.
So I see this Iowa game as largely about the pace of the end of JF's tenure. Fast (by the end of 2020) or slow? Lose this one or go on masking the problems a little longer?
You have sand boy......
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To me, Franklin is merely a version of Hoke who made a far better mid-era OC hire, got a couple breaks, but that these things won't change the end result, only the length of time it takes to get there.
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again, I say, "GO HAWKS"
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Oh James ... it wouldn't be a meme if this confusion weren't every thirty seconds of a PSU sideline.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PatMcAfeeShow/status/1056293285122265088
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I agree to some extent, franklins rant about being great but not elite
after he made some boneheaded moves in that OSU game was
somewhat comical. Then trying to call the timeout on chance of
Possession yesterday, some coaches just can’t keep it together during the
Heat of battle. He does seem like a decent recruiter and from outside
Looking in he seems to relate to his players.
But ferentz choked this game away, I don’t understand all the gimmicky stuff, I
Felt like Iowa had the better O and D lines, and could have just smashed
Their way to a win. Throwing a pick on first and goal from the 4 or so
Was mind boggling, and the team seemed totally unorganized
On that play. I really thought Iowa might be the best team overall in
BIG, but just boneheaded decisions cost them, now the west looks
Like a total mess. Definite a 2 loss team, maybe 3 from the west in
Indy.
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I think Franklin is a master motivator and aggregator of talent. I also bet he's fun to play for.
But he's a miserable tactician. That TO try. Looks confused in the most ordinary moments. Kicks FGs when down by so many points that the only way to *try* to stay in the game is to go for a first down/TD.
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It makes that video one part funny ... but also kind of sad. Sad like if you found out that your grampa -- driving home from Christmas dinner in Detroit -- wound up in Tennessee.
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Throwing a pick on first and goal from the 4 or so
Was mind boggling, and the team seemed totally unorganized
On that play.
Trying to communicate in that end of that stadium in that situation was foolish
Team was unorganized because they couldn't hear the audible
Fant obviously had no idea
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I don't know what I want or what Vegas is saying, but - gun to my head - I'd predict that all three of the highlighted lose. I probably want PSU to win (it's an alma mater, sure, but mostly because then next weekend is a bigger deal, and I'm renting an RV for a 25-person mixed fan party in the shadow of the stadium; that'll be more fun if PSU comes in as confident as possible). Having said it, I have very little faith in the Nits.
That game is mostly interesting to me in how the OL and McSorely respond to their first complete defense of the year.
It is a good thing that you didn't have a gun to your head. You'd've been dead wrong about all three outcomes.
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True. PSU should have lost, though. Actually, I take it back. Neither team deserved to win that game.
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Trying to communicate in that end of that stadium in that situation was foolish Team was unorganized because they couldn't hear the audible Fant obviously had no idea
Ferentz tried to call a timeout. Field judge looks up field and sees him. The Field Judge's arms start to move overhead a nanosecond before players start moving; the whistle doesn't blow, and Field Judge glances back to the play which starts. https://twitter.com/HawkeyeHQ/status/1056349945656238081 (https://twitter.com/HawkeyeHQ/status/1056349945656238081)
After watching several times I look at the back judge (I think) and he starts to look behind him toward Ferentz as the play starts.
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wow, that was close
could have changed the outcome
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True. PSU should have lost, though. Actually, I take it back. Neither team deserved to win that game.
Both teams tried to give it away; one team actually succeeded. Go Hawks!