| Team/Poster | AVG | Rank | StdDev | Best | Worst | Range | LW AVG | LW Rank | Chg Avg | Chg Rank |
| tOSU | 1.25 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.00 | 1 | (0.25) | 0 |
| M | 1.75 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3.24 | 3 | 1.49 | 1 |
| Iowa | 4.00 | 3 | 1.21 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4.94 | 5 | 0.94 | 2 |
| PSU | 4.44 | 4 | 1.59 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 2.06 | 2 | (2.38) | -2 |
| UW | 5.06 | 5 | 0.77 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 3.76 | 4 | (1.30) | -1 |
| MSU | 5.13 | 6 | 1.54 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 7.12 | 6 | 1.99 | 0 |
| MD | 7.25 | 7 | 1.34 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 7.88 | 8 | 0.63 | 1 |
| NU | 8.00 | 8 | 1.10 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 7.29 | 7 | (0.71) | -1 |
| PU | 8.38 | 9 | 1.15 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 8.88 | 9 | 0.51 | 0 |
| MN | 10.25 | 10 | 0.86 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 10.82 | 11 | 0.57 | 1 |
| IU | 10.69 | 11 | 0.70 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 9.18 | 10 | (1.51) | -1 |
| UNL | 12.31 | 12 | 0.79 | 11 | 14 | 3 | 12.82 | 13 | 0.51 | 1 |
| ILL | 12.56 | 13 | 0.63 | 11 | 13 | 2 | 12.18 | 12 | (0.39) | -1 |
| RU | 13.94 | 14 | 0.25 | 13 | 14 | 1 | 13.82 | 14 | (0.11) | 0 |
| Team/Poster | AVG | Rank | StdDev | Best | Worst | Range | LW AVG | LW Rank | Chg Avg | Chg Rank |
| tOSU | 1.21 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.00 | 1 | (0.21) | 0 |
| M | 1.79 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3.20 | 3 | 1.41 | 1 |
| Iowa | 3.93 | 3 | 1.14 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 5.00 | 5 | 1.07 | 2 |
| PSU | 4.21 | 4 | 1.05 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2.00 | 2 | (2.21) | -2 |
| UW | 5.07 | 5.5 | 0.73 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 3.80 | 4 | (1.27) | -1.5 |
| MSU | 5.07 | 5.5 | 1.33 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 7.07 | 6.5 | 2.00 | 1 |
| MD | 7.36 | 7 | 1.01 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 7.87 | 8 | 0.51 | 1 |
| NU | 7.86 | 8 | 0.77 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 7.20 | 6.5 | (0.66) | -1.5 |
| PU | 8.50 | 9 | 0.65 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 8.87 | 9 | 0.37 | 0 |
| MN | 10.21 | 10 | 0.70 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 10.93 | 11 | 0.72 | 1 |
| IU | 10.71 | 11 | 0.47 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 9.27 | 10 | (1.45) | -1 |
| UNL | 12.29 | 12 | 0.61 | 11 | 13 | 2 | 12.80 | 13 | 0.51 | 1 |
| ILL | 12.64 | 13 | 0.50 | 12 | 13 | 1 | 12.20 | 12 | (0.44) | -1 |
| RU | 14.00 | 14 | - | 14 | 14 | 0 | 13.87 | 14 | (0.13) | 0 |
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | . | Rank |
| . | Team | tOSU | M | Iowa | PSU | UW | MSU | MD | NU | PU | MN | IU | UNL | ILL | RU | Team | . |
| 1 | tOSU | n/a | 11/24, A | miss | L by 1, H | miss | 11/10, H | 11/17, H | miss | 10/20, H | L by 16, A | L by 23, A | 11/3, A | miss | L by 49, A | tOSU | 1 |
| 2 | M | 11/24, H | n/a | miss | 11/3, A | L by 25, A | 10/20, H | L by 21, A | L by 3, H | miss | miss | 11/17, A | L by 46, A | miss | 11/10, H | M | 2 |
| 3 | Iowa | miss | miss | n/a | 10/27, H | W by 11, A | miss | 10/20, A | 11/10, A | 11/3, H | L by 17, H | L by 26, H | 11/23, A | 11/17, H | miss | Iowa | 3 |
| 4 | PSU | W by 1, A | 11/3, H | 10/27, A | n/a | 11/10, A | W by 4, A | 11/24, A | miss | miss | miss | 10/20, H | miss | L by 39, H | 11/17, H | PSU | 4 |
| 5.5 | UW | miss | W by 25, H | L by 11, H | 11/10, H | n/a | miss | miss | 10/27, H | 11/17, H | 11/24, A | miss | L by 17, A | 10/20, A | 11/3, A | UW | 5.5 |
| 5.5 | MSU | 11/10, A | 10/20, A | miss | L by 4, H | miss | n/a | 11/3, H | W by 10, A | 10/27, A | miss | L by 14, H | 11/17, H | miss | 11/24, A | MSU | 5.5 |
| 7 | MD | 11/17, A | W by 21, H | 10/20, H | 11/24, H | miss | 11/3, A | n/a | miss | miss | L by 29, A | 11/10, H | miss | 10/27, A | L by 27, A | MD | 7 |
| 8 | NU | miss | W by 3, A | 11/10, H | miss | 10/27, A | L by 10, H | miss | n/a | L by 4, H | 11/17, A | miss | L in OT, A | 11/24, A | 10/20, H | NU | 8 |
| 9 | PU | 10/20, A | miss | 11/3, A | miss | 11/17, A | 10/27, H | miss | W by 4, A | n/a | 11/10, H | 11/24, H | L by 14, H | L by 39, H | miss | PU | 9 |
| 10 | MN | W by 16, H | miss | W by 17, A | miss | 11/24, H | miss | W by 29, H | 11/17, A | 11/10, A | n/a | 10/26, A | 10/20, H | 11/3, H | miss | MN | 10 |
| 11 | IU | W by 23, H | 11/17, H | W by 26, A | 10/20, A | miss | W by 14, A | 11/10, A | miss | 11/24, A | 10/26, H | n/a | miss | miss | L by 7, H | IU | 11 |
| 12 | UNL | 11/3, H | W by 46, H | 11/23, H | miss | W by 17, H | 11/17, A | miss | W in OT, H | W by 14, A | 10/20, A | miss | n/a | 11/10, A | miss | UNL | 12 |
| 13 | ILL | miss | miss | 11/17,A | W by 39, A | 10/20, H | miss | 10/27, H | 11/24, H | W by 39, A | 11/3, A | miss | 11/10, H | n/a | L by 21, H | ILL | 13 |
| 14 | RU | W by 49, H | 11/10, A | miss | 11/17, A | 11/3, H | 11/24, H | W by 27, H | 10/20, A | miss | miss | W by 7, A | miss | W by 21, A | n/a | RU | 14 |
| . | Team | tOSU | M | Iowa | PSU | UW | MSU | MD | NU | PU | MN | IU | UNL | ILL | RU | Team | . |
| Rank | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | . | Rank |
The whole conference of rankings had been pretty stable there for a few weeks (MSU and NU were maybe the only exceptions). Now we have NO IDEA how to rank the conference from, like, 3 to 10.Actually, 1 through 12 are all in doubt, as I see it.
#transitivepropertyisgarbage
1. Michigan, and it is not that close.I have no problem with ranking Michigan #1. They have certainly looked like it in two of the last four weeks (UW and UNL) but when you said:
Great defense, and an offense that has true balance, including Warriners newly added ( according to Patterson quote) read option. If that holds, this is a CFP team. They should only improve as Black and other guys get healthy. I predict when they roll into Columbus, they will already have East div. locked up.
10. IndianaYou had no #11 and no Nebraska. I have assumed that you meant to rank Nebraska 11th.
12. Minnesota
Actually, 1 through 12 are all in doubt, as I see it.Of course, still in doubt. But that's a question on whether anyone is locked in to an outcome for the year. Obviously not. I wasn't commenting on that - just observing that voting is harder this week, specifically at 3-10.
#transitivepropertyisgarbageMy usual rebut to this argument:
Of course, still in doubt. But that's a question on whether anyone is locked in to an outcome for the year. Obviously not. I wasn't commenting on that - just observing that voting is harder this week, specifically at 3-10.Nos. 1, and 2 are close to switchable for most of us, I would guess. A reasonable argument can be made for Michigan.
My preferred numbers system has Michigan over OSU by a spot, and I still think the OSU sandbagging is mighty strong here (or some OSU are mostly mad at what they saw)No sandbagging by me. The OSU defense has been beaten up in first halves, and, their run game gets less effective each week. Not a recipe for November success.
Granted, that OSU defense is worst than what I expected. 41st in S&P? What the hell?
I still think UNL upsets someone. They should have won Saturday. You can tell during the game it was a team that was hoping to hold on instead of believing they could hold on. Winning is a mindset and the team hasn't learned it yet. They will have that game where the pieces fall for them... and confidence will build.well, since UNL has lost to Wisconsin, Purdue, and Northwestern..... that leaves Iowa
The B1G West is shaping up to be extremely interesting.UW plays at NU this year. That will be a tough game for them to win. Only one win (2016) there since 1999.
Wisconsin still controls its own destiny, but I think any of Purdue, Northwestern, or Iowa all have a shot too.
Purdue has one of the best offenses in the conference. Northwestern is always scrappy and only have one loss. The problem for both of them is their schedules - Purdue drew tOSU & MSU out of the east and play them in the next two consecutive weeks, and Northwestern has to go to Wisconsin & Iowa, it will be tough for them to win both of those on the road.
The big question in the West is whether Wisconsin/Iowa can beat Penn State - even if they can, Purdue/Northwestern will be tricky games for both.
ff... I'd take an Iowa win. I didn't look at spreads before posting. Surprised UNL is favored by 6. And yes, Sparty is an option too. UNL has no chance vs OSU.luck, curses, whatever
Nos. 1, and 2 are close to switchable for most of us, I would guess. A reasonable argument can be made for Michigan.(Ahhh! I thought you were objecting as if I had said that no one except M or OSU could later end up in the Top 2, and I wanted to clarify, but you were actually objecting that the Top 2 were easy to pick between. Got it! FWIW then, my original comment was about 3-10 having some truly crazy variation. Even if there's no consensus on M/OSU, at least every vote for either has been contiguously 1/2.)
Ohio State has a dominant offense, but a great defense like Michigan's, when supplemented by a reasonably good offense, makes for close games against competitive offenses, and can make all the difference. The anticipation for Michigan and Ohio State fans this year, for their game, must be more intense than ever.
To win division it's overall conference record.Ok. Someone said above that Purdue has an outside shot at the division.
To win division it's overall conference record.In a multi-team tie (more than two) the tiebreakers are (https://bigten.org/news/2011/8/10/Big_Ten_Conference_Football_Divisional_Tiebreaker.aspx):
Only thing I am unsure of is in the case of like a 3-way tie (say Wisc beats NU and Purdue beats Wisc and Iowa tumbles) at 7-2 where H2H isn't a factor, is division record the next tie breaker.
Of if Iowa doesn't tumble and there's a way to get to a 4-way tie, how is that broken? Division record first and then common opponents?
To win division it's overall conference record.Here's the tiebreaker link: https://bigten.org/news/2011/8/10/Big_Ten_Conference_Football_Divisional_Tiebreaker.aspx
Only thing I am unsure of is in the case of like a 3-way tie (say Wisc beats NU and Purdue beats Wisc and Iowa tumbles) at 7-2 where H2H isn't a factor, is division record the next tie breaker.
Of if Iowa doesn't tumble and there's a way to get to a 4-way tie, how is that broken? Division record first and then common opponents?
Here's the tiebreaker link: https://bigten.org/news/2011/8/10/Big_Ten_Conference_Football_Divisional_Tiebreaker.aspxYou are exactly right. As long as they only lose to a B1G-E team from here out they have a VERY good chance to go to Indy. They are 2-1/3-3 now so if they lost to either tOSU or MSU but otherwise won out they would finish 7-2/8-4. In that case the Boilermakers would DEFINITELY go to Indianapolis if NU lost twice more. If Northwestern only lost once more then both NU and PU would be 7-2. Purdue would lose a two-way tie with Northwestern based on H2H so they would need a three-way tie with a team that beat NU. In that case it goes to divisional record but what would hurt PU there is that NU already lost a non-divisional game. If they other tied team also lost a non-divisional game then it would move down to the other tiebreakers and maybe PU could win there?
Plenty of scenarios to type out, but Purdue's division loss to Northwestern is going to hurt in a tie-breaker situation unless they beat both Wisconsin and Iowa.
As I understand it, best case scenarios for Purdue
1) Win out (8-1). Outright division champ, assuming Northwestern loses one more.
2) Lose to one of OSU/MSU, and win the rest (7-2). 3-way tie with Wisconsin/Iowa, but Purdue will be 2-0 vs tied opponents and win the division.
3) A lot of variables at 6-3, but losing to OSU/MSU and winning out in West, or losing to Iowa + one of OSU/MSU *could* trigger a 3-way tie situation. Losing to Wisconsin + one of OSU/MSU will most likely create a 2-way tie w/Wisconsin holding H2H. Of course Northwestern is still in play, my head hurts... Paging @medinabuckeye1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1547)
ETA: He already beat me to it.
Results posted, votes through SFBadger (16 voters):I thought about tweaking my rankings right after I posted, but then I was like, meh, well I did have my own logic I used when I first posted. So Ieft them alone and I will just change them next week when I am proven wrong (again)
There was a lot of movement this week.
- Michigan was up one spot from 3rd to 2nd but it was really a MUCH bigger jump than that. Last week they were closer to #4 (UW) than #3 (PSU) while this week they are closer to #1 (tOSU) than #3 (IA). In total, Michigan moved from "almost fourth" to "almost first".
- Iowa was up two spots passing PSU and UW.
- Penn State was down two spots being passed by IA and M.
- Wisconsin was down a spot and a half passed by IA and now tied with MSU.
- MSU was up one spot from a tie for 6th/7th with NU into a tie for 5th/6th with UW.
- Maryland was up one spot passing NU.
- Northwestern was down a spot and a half, dropping out of the tie with MSU and being passed by UMD.
- Minnesota was up one spot passing IU.
- Indiana was down one spot being passed by MN.
- Nebraska was up one spot passing Illinois.
- Illinois was down a spot being passed by UNL.
November 10th is shaping up to be a very interesting weekend here at Power Ranking HQ. On that Saturday all fourteen of our teams are playing conference games and other than #2 M at #14 RU they all have games that are close enough that they could reasonably go either way:
- #5/6 Wisconsin at #4 Penn State - adjascent
- #9 Purdue at #10 Minnesota - adjascent
- #13 Illinois at #12 Nebraska - adjascent
- #7 Maryland at #11 Indiana - four spots separation
- #1 Ohio State at #5/6 Michigan State - four and a half spots separation
- #3 Iowa at #8 Northwestern - five spots separation
#10 Minnesota has a really interesting next five weeks. Over the next five weeks they play the five teams ranked closest to then in our rankings:I find this interesting because I could see them going either 5-0 or 0-5 over that stretch. They are currently 3-3/0-3 with losses that were not very close to #1 tOSU, #3 Iowa, and #7 UMD. If they go 5-0 they'll head to Madison for the Ax game at 8-3/5-3 and with a possible chance at the B1G-W title (depends what happens elsewhere). If they go 0-5 they'll head to Madison at 3-8/0-8 with nothing to play for.
- at #8 Northwestern on 11/17
- vs #9 Purdue on 11/10
- vs #11 Indiana on 10/26
- at #12 Nebraska on 10/20
- at #13 Illinois on 11/3
Non-contiguous votes:
- LittlePig has Maryland #4, nobody else has them higher than #6
- LittlePig has Purdue #5, nobody else has them higher than #7
- LittlePig has Penn State #9, nobody else has them lower than #6
- SFBadger and I have Northwestern 11th and 10th respectively, nobody else has them lower than #8
Looking ahead to this weekend:
- #1 Ohio State at #9 Purdue
- #2 Michigan at #5/6 Michigan State
- #7 Maryland at #3 Iowa
- #4 Penn State at #11 Indiana
- #13 Illinois at #5/6 Wisconsin
- #8 Northwestern at #14 Rutgers
- #10 Minnesota at #12 Nebraska
All fourteen teams are in action and five of the seven games feature the higher ranked team on the road. It could be a very exciting weekend!