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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on September 28, 2018, 05:05:11 PM

Title: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 28, 2018, 05:05:11 PM

Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=5560.0).

Votes through me (13 voters):

Team/Poster	AVG	Rank	StdDev	Best	Worst	Range	LW AVG	LW Rank	Chg Avg	Chg Rank
tOSU	1.00	1	-	1	1	0	1.07	1	0.07	0
PSU	2.00	2	-	2	2	0	2.13	2	0.13	0
UW	3.54	3	0.88	3	6	3	3.87	4	0.33	1
M	3.77	4	0.73	3	5	2	3.53	3	(0.24)	-1
MSU	5.08	5	0.64	4	6	2	4.80	5	(0.28)	0
Iowa	5.77	6	0.73	4	7	3	5.73	6	(0.04)	0
MD	7.15	7	0.80	5	8	3	7.07	7	(0.09)	0
IU	8.62	8	1.33	7	11	4	8.53	8	(0.08)	0
PU	9.38	9	0.87	8	11	3	9.60	9	0.22	0
NU	9.54	10	1.27	8	11	3	10.00	10	0.46	0
MN	10.15	11	1.14	8	11	3	10.07	11	(0.09)	0
ILL	12.54	12	0.78	12	14	2	12.27	12	(0.27)	0
UNL	12.85	13	0.80	12	14	2	12.40	13	(0.45)	0
RU	13.62	14	0.51	13	14	1	13.93	14	0.32	0

Drop the high and low:

Team/Poster	AVG	Rank	StdDev	Best	Worst	Range	LW AVG	LW Rank	Chg Avg	Chg Rank
tOSU	1.00	1	-	1	1	0	1.00	1	-	0
PSU	2.00	2	-	2	2	0	2.08	2	0.08	0
UW	3.36	3	0.50	3	4	1	3.85	4	0.48	1
M	3.73	4	0.65	3	5	2	3.54	3	(0.19)	-1
MSU	5.09	5	0.54	4	6	2	4.85	5	(0.24)	0
Iowa	5.82	6	0.40	5	6	1	5.77	6	(0.05)	0
MD	7.27	7	0.47	7	8	1	7.08	7	(0.20)	0
IU	8.55	8	1.13	7	10	3	8.46	8	(0.08)	0
PU	9.36	9	0.67	8	10	2	9.62	9	0.25	0
NU	9.55	10	1.21	8	11	3	10.00	10.5	0.45	0.5
MN	10.27	11	1.01	8	11	3	10.00	10.5	(0.27)	-0.5
ILL	12.45	12	0.69	12	14	2	12.31	12	(0.15)	0
UNL	12.82	13	0.75	12	14	2	12.38	13	(0.43)	0
RU	13.64	14	0.50	13	14	1	14.00	14	0.36	0

Various graphical illustrations:
 (https://thumb.ibb.co/jh9fye/B1_GPR_2018_wk5_pre_curr.jpg) (https://ibb.co/jh9fye) (https://thumb.ibb.co/cn6tJe/B1_GPR_2018_wk5.jpg) (https://ibb.co/cn6tJe) (https://thumb.ibb.co/fdcNBz/B1_GPR_2018_wk5_dist.jpg) (https://ibb.co/fdcNBz) 
Schedule/Performance chart:

Rank

Team

tOSU

PSU

MSU

Iowa

ILL

UNL

Team

tOSU

n/a

L by 1, H

miss

11/24, A

11/10, H

miss

11/17, H

10/6, A

10/20, H

miss

10/13, A

miss

11/3, A

L by 49, A

tOSU

PSU

W by 1, A

n/a

11/10, A

11/3, H

10/13, A

10/27, A

11/24, A

10/20, H

miss

L by 39, H

miss

11/17, H

PSU

miss

11/10, H

n/a

10/13, H

miss

L by 11, H

miss

11/17, H

10/27, H

11/24, A

10/20, A

10/6, A

11/3, A

11/24, H

11/3, A

10/13, A

n/a

10/20, H

miss

10/6, A

11/17, A

miss

L by 3, H

miss

L by 46, A

11/10, H

MSU

11/10, A

10/13, H

miss

10/20, A

n/a

miss

11/3, H

L by 14, H

10/27, A

10/6, A

miss

11/17, H

11/24, A

MSU

Iowa

miss

10/27, H

W by 11, A

miss

n/a

10/20, A

10/13, H

11/3, H

11/10, A

10/6, H

11/17, H

11/23, A

miss

Iowa

11/17, A

11/24, H

miss

10/6, H

11/3, A

10/20, H

n/a

11/10, H

miss

L by 29, A

10/27, A

miss

10/13, A

10/6, H

10/20, A

miss

11/17, H

W by 14, A

10/13, A

11/10, A

n/a

11/24, A

miss

10/26, H

miss

L by 7, H

10/20, A

miss

11/17, A

miss

10/27, H

11/3, A

miss

11/24, H

n/a

W by 4, A

11/10, H

10/13, H

L by 14, H

miss

10/27, A

W by 3, A

10/6, H

11/10, H

miss

L by 4, H

n/a

11/17, A

11/24, A

10/13, A

10/20, H

10/13, H

miss

11/24, H

miss

10/6, A

W by 29, H

10/26, A

11/10, A

11/17, A

n/a

11/3, H

10/20, H

miss

ILL

miss

W by 39, A

10/20, H

miss

11/17,A

10/27, H

miss

10/13, A

11/24, H

11/3, A

n/a

11/10, H

10/6, H

ILL

UNL

11/3, H

miss

10/6, H

W by 46, H

11/17, A

11/23, H

miss

W by 14, A

10/13, H

10/20, A

11/10, A

n/a

miss

UNL

W by 49, H

11/17, A

11/3, H

11/10, A

11/24, H

miss

10/13, H

W by 7, A

miss

10/20, A

miss

10/6, A

miss

n/a

Team

tOSU

PSU

MSU

Iowa

ILL

UNL

Team

Rank

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 30, 2018, 12:04:59 AM

Ohio State

I'll figure the rest out later.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: LittlePig on September 30, 2018, 07:03:53 AM

1. OSU
Big comeback victory on the road against a top 10 team

2. PSU
With 8 minutes left, I was ready to endorse McSorley for Big Ten MVP. Tough loss for PSU 2 years in a row against OSU.

3. Wisc
Still trying to figure out how the lost to BYU. Defense looks vulnerable this year.

4. MSU
At this point, I really have norhing to justify this high of ranking, except that MSU usually finds a way to win (except 2016).

5. Mich
Came back to earth this week.

6. Iowa
Although special teams killed Iowa against Wisc, its really the offense that still needs to figure it out, otherwise Iowa is vulnerable in every game.

7. MD
Was the Temple game a fluke?

8. Purdue
Appears to have things turned around after a bad start.

9. Indy
Seems like one of those teams good enough to beat the bad teams. Not good enough to beat the good teams.

10. Minn
Will get a chance to move up if it can beat Iowa next week.

11. NW
Game against Mich was so NW. Team looks awful in mid- september, then decides to be decent in October.

12. ILL
Signs here and there they might not be totally awful.

13. Rut
Managed a close loss to Indy and at least they have won once.

14. Neb
Well, the team that won 3 national championships in the 90's has now sunk to the bottom of the Big Ten rankings. Scott Frost has a lot of work to do.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: MaximumSam on September 30, 2018, 07:39:12 AM

1. OSU: Not exactly an awe-inspiring victory, but credit to the defense for keeping them in the game and to the offense for finally putting it together on the road against a good team.
2. PSU: Did pretty much everything but win the game
3. Michigan: Defense eventually put the clamps on and the offense, when leaning on the running game, was good enough.
4. Wisconsin: Bye
5. MSU: A good ole fashioned Tresselian win
6. Iowa: Bye
7. Maryland: Bye
8. Northwestern: Couldn't quite pull it out
9. Indiana: Another win
10. Purdue: Rounding into form
11. Minnesota: Bye
12. Nebraska: Bye, wait, no they played
13. Illinois: Bye
14: Rutgers: Bye bye

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: Temp430 on September 30, 2018, 09:45:51 AM

1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan
5. Michigan State
6. Iowa
7. Indiana
8. Maryland
9. Northwestern
10. Purdue
11. Minnesota
12. Nebraska
13. Rutgers
14. Illinois

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 30, 2018, 10:26:59 AM

1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin
5. Michigan State
6. Iowa
7. Maryland
8. Northwestern
9. Purdue
10. Indiana
11. Minnesota
12. Illinois
13. Nebraska
14. Rutger

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 30, 2018, 11:32:49 AM

My rankings from last week were as good as gold yesterday, so I see no reason to alter them.

Top Seven
1 Ohio State
2 Penn State
3 Michigan
4 Michigan State
5 Maryland
6 Wisconsin
7 Iowa

.

Bottom Seven
8 Indiana
9 Minnesota
10 Northwestern
11 Purdue
12 Illinois
13 Rutgers
14 Nebraska
.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 30, 2018, 03:20:45 PM

(Last,...,Preseason)

1. OSU (1,1,1,1,1)

----

2. PSU (2,2,3,7,6)
3. Michigan (3,4,4,4,3)
4. UW (4,5,2,2,4)
5. Iowa (5,3,5,5,5)
6. MSU (6,6,6,3,2)

----

7. Indiana (7,7,11,11,11)
8. Maryland (8,8,7,6,9)
9. Purdue (9,11,9,9,7)
10. Northwestern (10,9,8,8,8)
11. Minnesota (12,12,12,12,12)
12. Nebraska (11,10,10,10,10)
13. Illinois (13,13,14,14,14)

----

14. Rutger (14,14,13,13,13)

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 30, 2018, 03:50:38 PM

S&P+ Ratings this week:
.

3. OSU (97.5% - Offense, 3 / Defense, 23 / STs, 50)
7. Michigan (95.6% - 27/4/9)
8. PSU (95.3% - 10/21/88)
13. Wisconsin (90.3% - 11/49/32)
21. MSU (85.7% - 47/17/28)
27. Iowa (79.4% - 92/6/74)
49. Indiana (65.9% - 89/22/54)
50. Purdue (63.7% - 25/82/81)
55. Minnesota (57.7% - 115/11/4)
56. Maryland (57.4% - 76/50/12)
59. Northwestern (54.7% - 93/31/119)
71. Nebraska (47.3% - 67/74/110)
101. Illinois (20.5% - 83/110/14)
115. Rutgers (11.6% - 122/75/5)

.
Offense Only:
.

1. OSU (3)
2. PSU (10)
3. Wisconsin (11)
4. Purdue (25)
5. Michigan (27)
6. MSU (47)
7. Nebraska (67)
8. Maryland (76)
9. Illinois (83)
10. Indiana (89)
11. Iowa (92)
12. Northwestern (93)
13. Minnesota (115)
14. Rutgers (122)

.
Defense Only:
.

1. Michigan (4)
2. Iowa (6)
3. Minnesota (11)
4. MSU (17)
5. PSU (21)
6. Indiana (22)
7. OSU (23)
8. Northwestern (31)
9. Wisconsin (49)
10. Maryland (50)
11. Nebraska (74)
12. Rutgers (75)
13. Purdue (82)
14. Illinois (110)
.
Northwestern fell from #24, so the Big Ten lost one team from the Top 25 but at 7 teams, this is still a defense-defined conference by far
.

Special Teams Only:
.
1. Minnesota (4)
2. Rutgers (5)
3. Michigan (9)
4. Maryland (12)
5. Illinois (14)
6. MSU (28)
7. Wisconsin (32)
8. OSU (50)
9. Indiana (54)
10. Iowa (74)
11. Purdue (81)
12. PSU (88)
13. Nebraska (110)
14. Northwestern (119)

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: TyphonInc on September 30, 2018, 06:14:22 PM

Not much movement in my rankings this week.

Good

1. Ohio State (+1) - Stats say PSU was better, Scoreboard says it is OSU

2. Penn State (-1) - 8 minutes left ESPN said PSU had a 96% chance to win.

3. Wisconsin (--) - Rest up boys, rest up.

4. Iowa (--) - Rest up boys, rest up.

5. Michigan (--) - 20 unanswered to win by 3, not that inspiring.

6. Michigan State (--) - gave up 17 in the 4th to make the score look closer

7. Maryland (--) - Rest up boys, rest up.

Not Good
8. Minnesota (--) - Rest up boys, rest up.

9. Indiana (--) - allowed Rutgers to hang around

10. Purdue (--) - better than those below them

11. Northwestern (--) - had the wolverines on the ropes.

12. Nebraska (--) - Frost is right, this team needs an attitude change.

13. Illinois (--) - Rest up boys, rest up.

14. Rutgers (--) - Super Sad Panda

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: ohio1317 on September 30, 2018, 11:51:17 PM

1. (1) Ohio State: Did not seem like the better team for much of game, but defense held and offense came through when it needed to leading to back to back years with great late come backs vs. the Loins.
2. (2) Penn State: Was sure they were going to be #1 most of last night and really should have won. So very close to a completely different conference race with the loss though. Obviously losing the head to head edge and the loss in the standings is the biggest problem now, but Penn State will have a harder time getting back in race than Ohio State would have with a loss because of the schedules. Penn State plays both Iowa and Wisconsin out of division while Ohio State plays neither.
3. (4) Wisconsin: The BYU loss looks worse again, but still think Badgers would be favored in a rematch by a lot.
4. (3) Michigan: I have a hard time discerning this team. I think they have the potential to compete for conference crown, but not being consistent enough showing. I could see them as up as high as #2 next week or as low as #8.
5. (5) Iowa: Think 2nd best team in west, but loss to Wisconsin leaves in tough spot.
6. (6) Michigan State: Veteran loaded team. Game this week was not as close as score shows, but they really need to actually show their potential soon or going to be a long season.
7. (7) Maryland: Very big chance to move up this week and I think they are good enough to (although would not be it).
8. (10) Northwestern: Not a good non-conference at all, but beat Purdue to start year and scared Michigan this week. Really that feels like typical Northwestern too. With some time to gel, I think they will be at least somewhat of threat the rest of the year. If not for the Purdue win, would probably have several spots lower though.
11. (11) Purdue: Certainly made the season rough on themselves loosing the first 3 games. Still, all losses were close and seems to be playing decently.
8. (9) Minnesota: Off this week too. I moved them above Indiana.
9. (8) Indiana: Let Rutgers stay in game way too long given how Rutgers has been playing, but still won. Bowl eligibility might be tough with rest of schedule, but path is certainly there.
12. (12) Illinois: Honestly might be higher than I expected to have Illinois all season. Really need some momentum rest of this year if Lovie Smith is going to work out.
13. (13) Nebraska: Long term they'll be fine.
14. (14) Rutgers: Better showing this week for sure. Can get a win in Big Ten play if things fall right.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: Benthere2 on October 01, 2018, 09:10:34 AM

1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan
5. Michigan State
6. Iowa
7. Indiana
8. Maryland
9. Northwestern
10. Purdue
11. Minnesota
12. Nebraska
13. Rutgers
14. Illinois

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: JerseyTerrapin on October 01, 2018, 09:13:48 AM

1. Ohio State

2. Penn State

3. Michigan

4. Wisconsin

5. Michigan State

6. Iowa

7. Indiana

8. Maryland

9. Purdue

10. Northwestern

11. Minnesota

12. Illinois

13. Rutgers

14. Nebraska

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: LetsGoPeay on October 01, 2018, 01:10:31 PM

1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan
5. Michigan State
6. Iowa
7. Maryland
8. Northwestern
9. Purdue
10. Indiana
11. Minnesota
12. Illinois
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: SFBadger96 on October 01, 2018, 01:49:57 PM

1) Ohio State: until someone knocks them off.
2) Penn State: looks legit--close loss to top ranked team.
3) Wisconsin: benefited from not playing since beating Iowa on the road.
4) Michigan: Northwestern isn't good, but can be a tough road game.
5) Michigan State: not a great final score against a directional Michigan.
6) Iowa: did not play.
7) Maryland: did not play.
8) Minnesota: did not play.
9) Indiana: a win is a win.
10) Purdue: Nebraska is not good.
11) Northwestern: for putting up a fight.
12) Illinois: did not play, but still sucks.
13) Nebraska: Bad.
14) Rutgers: because Rutgers.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: MaximumSam on October 01, 2018, 03:50:46 PM

S&P+ rankings

1. OSU (3)
2. Michigan (7)
3. PSU (8)
4. Wisconsin (13)
5. MSU (21)
6. Iowa (27)
7. Indiana (49)
8. Purdue (50)
9. Minnesota (55)
10. Maryland (56)
11. Northwestern (59)
12. Nebraska (71)
13. Illinois (101)
14. Rutgers (115)

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 01, 2018, 04:08:44 PM

Quote from: ohio1317 on September 30, 2018, 11:51:17 PM

8. (10) Northwestern:
11. (11) Purdue:
8. (9) Minnesota:
9. (8) Indiana:
12. (12) Illinois:

I read this as:

#8 NU
#9 PU
#10 MN
#11 IU

Did you mean that or something else?

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: MaximumSam on October 01, 2018, 04:31:07 PM

Also, Bill Connelly, creator of the S&P+ rankings, always stresses they are supposed to be predictive in nature. He came up with a resume ranking last year, which basically looks at a team's scoring margin and compares it to what an average top 5 team would do against that schedule. Alabama is #1 by a mile on that list.

1. OSU (2)
2. PSU (3)
3. Michigan (6)
4. Wisconsin (27)
5. Iowa (32)
6. Maryland (45)
7. Purdue (48)
8. MSU (49)
9. Minnesota (51)
10. Indiana (54)
11. Northwestern (70)
12. Illinois (86)
13. Nebraska (104)
14. Rutgers (122)

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 01, 2018, 04:38:24 PM

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 30, 2018, 12:04:59 AM

Ohio State

I'll figure the rest out later.

I was just celebrating when I posted this. Now for my rankings:

Ohio State: If that game had been in Columbus I would be tempted to move PSU up to #1 but the road win cements the top spot for the Buckeyes.
Penn State: The Nittany Lions did everything but win. They had more rushing yards (206-119), more passing yards (286-270), more total yards (492-389), and the worldwide leader says that their probability of winning topped out at just over 96% with just over eight minutes to go.
Wisconsin: The Badgers move up on a rest.
Michigan: Getting 20 straight is good, needing 20 straight is not good.
Michigan State: CMU's 17 fourth quarter points made the final score look competitive but this game was not competitive.
Iowa: No change on the bye.
Maryland: No change on the bye.
Purdue: Going into Lincoln and spanking the Cornhuskers moves the Boilermakers up a spot.
Indiana: It wasn't actually as competitive as it looked but the opponent was a Rutgers team that got spanked by Kansas.
Minnesota: No change on the bye.
Northwestern: If they had held on the beat Michigan I would have moved them up. As it stands, I am keeping them here because they lost at home to Akron.
Illinois: No change on the bye.
Nebraska: Well, they looked better this week than last . . .
Rutgers: Well, they looked reasonably competitive. What sucks for Rutgers is that they have a great schedule for a bad B1G team. Their three easiest games (#8 IU, #10/11 NU, and #12 Illinois) are all at home. If they were remotely competitive they would win those three and upset somebody to go 4-5 in conference and probably go bowling. Alas, they are not remotely competitive.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 01, 2018, 06:20:29 PM

Results posted, votes through me (13 voters).

Not much change this week. Michigan and Wisconsin flip/flopped at #3/4 and the #10/11 tie between Northwestern and Minnesota was broken in Northwestern's favor.

Looking ahead:
After having five teams on a bye last week only Penn State and Purdue are on a bye this week. This week's games:

#8 IU @ #1 tOSU
#13 UNL @ #3 UW
#7 UMD @ #4 M
#10 NU @ #5 MSU
#6 IA @ #11 MN
#12 IL @ #14 RU

This is Rutgers' last best chance for a conference win in 2018. Illinois needs a win there to preserve any remaining chance that their coach will be retained into next year.

Looking way ahead:
Ohio State's backloaded schedule creates an interesting phenomenon. Between now at November 3 every B1G team other than Ohio State will play at least one game against one of the top-4 in our current rankings. Meanwhile, Ohio State's best opponent over that stretch is this week's opponent, #8 Indiana. Barring a substantial upset the Buckeyes should go 4-0 over the next five weeks to move to 9-0/6-0.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: TyphonInc on October 02, 2018, 09:43:39 AM

We are all in agreement on #1 and #2, but I am shocked that we are not in agreement on the #14?!?

Looking forward to reading the logic that pushed TTUN ahead of Wisconsin by surviving a game against a bad Northwestern Team.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: ELA on October 02, 2018, 10:45:23 AM

Last week in parenthesis, with only one slight change near the bottom...

OHIO STATE (1) - that might be the best conference win of any team in the last few seasons
PENN STATE (2) - tough loss, but no reason to drop them
MICHIGAN (3) - defense needs to bring their A game out of the gate against solid competition, second time the opponent has gotten off to a big early lead
WISCONSIN (4) - IDLE
IOWA (5) - IDLE
MICHIGAN STATE (6) - not as close as the final score, but also did nothing to show their flaws aren't still flaws
MARYLAND (7) - IDLE
PURDUE (8) - big road win, but slightly concerning that the defense reverted to pre-BC form
INDIANA (9) - not blowing Rutgers out is problematic
MINNESOTA (10) - IDLE
NORTHWESTERN (12) - a close loss to Michigan on paper should be a moral victory, but not when you blew a 17 point lead
NEBRASKA (11) - I probably should have taken the bet re: their bowl eligibility, they are actually worse than I expected
ILLINOIS (13) - IDLE
RUTGERS (-) - respectable loss at least puts them back on the board

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 02, 2018, 10:45:43 AM

Typho:

Michigan fell to #4. They were #3 before. Not that it matters. Neither is obviously better than the other at this point. I wish we could settle that with some sort of ... game.

As for the NU game: the problem wasn't the offense (getting to 20 against a Top 25 defense is entirely fine). The run game was effective and the tackles kept Gaziano in check. That's a win (and a serious development for the OL by Warriner). The problem was the defense for those first three drives. Of course, on every other drive, they allowed a cumulative 0 points and 57 yards. It's still the best defense in the conference. And the comeback on the road showed fortitude. I don't get the hand-wringing.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: ELA on October 02, 2018, 11:01:39 AM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on October 02, 2018, 10:45:43 AM

As for the NU game: the problem wasn't the offense (getting to 20 against a Top 25 defense is entirely fine).

Fine? I don't know. Not terrible, but that's still the fewest points anyone (including Akron) has scored on Northwestern this year. I agree they weren't the main problem, that was, as I posted in my rankings, the defense taking time to settle in, same as they did against Notre Dame. But I'm not sure I'd say "fine" either.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 02, 2018, 11:10:59 AM

Quote from: TyphonInc on October 02, 2018, 09:43:39 AM

We are all in agreement on #1 and #2, but I am shocked that we are not in agreement on the #14?!?

.

I'm shocked as well.
There's no way Nebraska would paste TXST 35-7 like Rutgers did.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 02, 2018, 11:26:08 AM

Quote from: ELA on October 02, 2018, 11:01:39 AM

Fine? I don't know. Not terrible, but that's still the fewest points anyone (including Akron) has scored on Northwestern this year. I agree they weren't the main problem, that was, as I posted in my rankings, the defense taking time to settle in, same as they did against Notre Dame. But I'm not sure I'd say "fine" either.

Fine in so far as I foresaw a 20-6 type game and would have been entirely fine with that.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 02, 2018, 11:34:44 AM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on October 02, 2018, 10:45:43 AM

Typho:

Michigan fell to #4. They were #3 before. Not that it matters. Neither is obviously better than the other at this point. I wish we could settle that with some sort of ... game.

I was going to point out the same thing for @TyphonInc (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=8) , it was the other way around. Last week Michigan was ahead of Wisconsin by 0.31 and now Wisconsin is ahead of Michigan by 0.25 (after adding in @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's vote). It really isn't much movement at all and we'll all find out in two weeks when Wisconsin heads to Ann Arbor.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 02, 2018, 11:36:39 AM

I added in @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's vote. It didn't change any of the rankings.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 02, 2018, 11:44:12 AM

FWIW:
The only non-contiguous votes this week are @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) 's votes for Maryland and Wisconsin:

He voted Wisconsin #6, nobody else had them lower than #4.
He voted Maryland #5, nobody else had them higher than #7.

I think this comes down to how you view the Badgers and Terps games against BYU and Temple respectively. This will all sort itself out very soon because over the next two weeks both of those teams travel to Ann Arbor.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: fezzador on October 02, 2018, 11:54:44 AM

The B1G pecking order is becoming a little more clear.

1) Ohio State
2) Penn State
3) Wisconsin
4) Michigan
5) Michigan State
6) Iowa
7) Maryland
8) Purdue
9) Indiana
10) Minnesota
11) Northwestern
12) Nebraska
13) Illinois
14) Rutgers

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 02, 2018, 12:17:43 PM

I added in @fezzador (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=44) 's vote. No change to the rankings.

These groupings stand out:

#1 Ohio State
#2 Penn State
#3/4 Wisconsin/Michigan
#5/6 Michigan State/Iowa
#7 Maryland
#8/9/10/11 Indiana/Purdue/Northwestern/Minnesota
#12/13/14 Illinois/Nebraska/Rutgers

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: TyphonInc on October 02, 2018, 12:19:24 PM

I think you can group OSU and PSU together in the top tier.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 02, 2018, 12:27:06 PM

S&P+ would argue that the bottom is:

12. UNL (71)
13. Illinois (101)
14. Rutger (115)

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 02, 2018, 12:43:58 PM

Quote from: TyphonInc on October 02, 2018, 12:19:24 PM

I think you can group OSU and PSU together in the top tier.

I agree and I think most voters would agree but I was ranking based on gaps, ie:

tOSU is 1.00 ahead of PSU
PSU is 1.38 ahead of UW
UW is .031 ahead of M
M is 1.46 ahead of MSU
MSU is 0.62 ahead of Iowa
Iowa is 1.46 ahead of UMD
UMD is 1.39 ahead of IU
IU is 0.43 ahead of PU
PU is 0.61 ahead of NU
NU is 0.46 ahead of MN
MN is 2.31 ahead of IL
IL is 0.15 ahead of UNL
UNL is 1.00 ahead of RU

Other than the fact that Rutgers is separated by 1.00 from IL/UNL I used 1.00 to define a gap between groups.

I think that teams within the groups that I laid out could switch spots with other teams within their groups without a major upset. In order for a team to move groups though, a major upset would probably be needed. By that metric, I think that tOSU and PSU are separate groups because I can't realistically see PSU passing tOSU without a major upset.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 02, 2018, 01:31:00 PM

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 02, 2018, 11:44:12 AM

FWIW:
The only non-contiguous votes this week are @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) 's votes for Maryland and Wisconsin:
He voted Wisconsin #6, nobody else had them lower than #4.
He voted Maryland #5, nobody else had them higher than #7.

I think this comes down to how you view the Badgers and Terps games against BYU and Temple respectively. This will all sort itself out very soon because over the next two weeks both of those teams travel to Ann Arbor.

Temple and BYU are both good but not great mid majors.
While Wisconsin's system is perfect for dominating the B1G West, I don't see them knocking off Texas.
They have some common opponents down the stretch, so we'll see how that shakes out.
If Wisconsin plays better against Michigan and Penn State than Maryland does, I'll adjust my rankings accordingly.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 02, 2018, 04:24:23 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on October 02, 2018, 01:31:00 PM

Temple and BYU are both good but not great mid majors.
While Wisconsin's system is perfect for dominating the B1G West, I don't see them knocking off Texas.
They have some common opponents down the stretch, so we'll see how that shakes out.
If Wisconsin plays better against Michigan and Penn State than Maryland does, I'll adjust my rankings accordingly.

I think you already know this, but in case you don't:
My post listing "non-contiguous votes" was not meant to say "@Brutus Buckeye is a moron, look at these stupid votes", I was just pointing out the biggest disagreements that we collectively have.
At this point I think that we are still waiting to see how good both Maryland and Wisconsin are. To a certain extent this is true of all teams at this point, but I think more strongly with those two. Their losses were REALLY bad. If we ranked them based solely on those performances we would be talking about which was #9 and which was #10ish. OTOH, their best wins (TX and IA) were REALLY good. If we ranked them solely on those performances they would be in the discussion with tOSU, PSU, and M for the top few spots. I don't think any ranking anywhere between those is "wrong".

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 02, 2018, 07:25:25 PM

Bill Connely's statistical profiles are now out. I figure putting them here is better than making a new thread. I also figure that the statheads (here's looking at medina) will be all about it:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml#

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 04, 2018, 09:31:48 AM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on October 02, 2018, 07:25:25 PM

Bill Connely's statistical profiles are now out. I figure putting them here is better than making a new thread. I also figure that the statheads (here's looking at medina) will be all about it:

It was interesting, thank you for sharing.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 04, 2018, 09:42:47 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on October 02, 2018, 01:31:00 PM

Temple and BYU are both good but not great mid majors.
While Wisconsin's system is perfect for dominating the B1G West, I don't see them knocking off Texas.
They have some common opponents down the stretch, so we'll see how that shakes out.
If Wisconsin plays better against Michigan and Penn State than Maryland does, I'll adjust my rankings accordingly.

I think this Maryland/Wisconsin question is interesting. Over on the Stirring the Pot thread (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=5581.180) @SFBadger96 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=51) claims that Wisconsin is ranked and Maryland is not only due to reputation.
Wisconsin and Maryland will not play this year unless they both reach the B1GCG but they will have six common opponents. That information will become available as follows:

10/13, #4 Michigan: Both teams play in Ann Arbor, UMD on 10/6 and UW on 10/13
10/20, #6 Iowa: Both teams play in Iowa City, UW won there by 11 and UMD plays there on 10/20
10/27, #12 Illinois: Both teams host the Illini, UW on 10/20 and UMD on 10/27
11/3, #14 Rutgers: Both teams host the Scarlet Knights, UMD on 10/13 and UW on 11/17
11/24, #2 Penn State: Both teams play in Happy Valley, UW on 11/10 and UMD on 11/24
11/24, #11 Minnesota: Both teams host the Gophers, UMD won by 29, UW hosts them on 11/24

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: ELA on October 04, 2018, 11:46:19 AM

Massey composite rankings (86 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...

Alabama (1)
Georgia (2)
OHIO STATE (5)
LSU (7)
Clemson (4)
Notre Dame (9)
Oklahoma (6)
PENN STATE (3)
Washington (13)
Kentucky (15)
West Virginia (16)
Auburn (11)
MICHIGAN (14)
Stanford (8)
NC State (24)
Miami (17)
Central Florida (18)
WISCONSIN (10)
Oklahoma State (22)
Texas (21)
Florida (-)
Boise State (-)
MICHIGAN STATE (20)
Duke (12)
Syracuse (-)

28. Iowa (27)
45. Indiana (43)
47. Maryland (42)
53. Minnesota (57)
65. Purdue (69)
68. Northwestern (63)
91. Illinois (87)
108. Nebraska (103)
118. Rutgers (116)

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: ELA on October 04, 2018, 11:47:06 AM

Top 6 teams are each exactly 5 spots apart

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: LittlePig on October 05, 2018, 09:21:14 AM

Quote from: ELA on October 04, 2018, 11:47:06 AM

Top 6 teams are each exactly 5 spots apart

Lol, I originally read this as the top 6 teams in the Top 25 are 5 spots apart, and I was like duh.
Then I figured out what you really meant and I was like, that's pretty cool. :)

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: LittlePig on October 05, 2018, 09:24:39 AM

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 04, 2018, 09:42:47 AM

I think this Maryland/Wisconsin question is interesting. Over on the Stirring the Pot thread (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=5581.180) @SFBadger96 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=51) claims that Wisconsin is ranked and Maryland is not only due to reputation.
Wisconsin and Maryland will not play this year unless they both reach the B1GCG but they will have six common opponents. That information will become available as follows:
10/13, #4 Michigan: Both teams play in Ann Arbor, UMD on 10/6 and UW on 10/13
10/20, #6 Iowa: Both teams play in Iowa City, UW won there by 11 and UMD plays there on 10/20
10/27, #12 Illinois: Both teams host the Illini, UW on 10/20 and UMD on 10/27
11/3, #14 Rutgers: Both teams host the Scarlet Knights, UMD on 10/13 and UW on 11/17
11/24, #2 Penn State: Both teams play in Happy Valley, UW on 11/10 and UMD on 11/24
11/24, #11 Minnesota: Both teams host the Gophers, UMD won by 29, UW hosts them on 11/24

That is an amazing coincidence that of all 6 common opponents they host the same 3 teams and play at the same 3 teams.
Or is that intentionally set up that way?

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 5
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 05, 2018, 09:56:34 AM

Quote from: LittlePig on October 05, 2018, 09:24:39 AM

That is an amazing coincidence that of all 6 common opponents they host the same 3 teams and play at the same 3 teams.
Or is that intentionally set up that way?

It is purely coincidental. Consider Wisconsin and the three other B1G-E teams that they don't play:
Wisconsin and Ohio State:

Both travel to Penn State
Ohio State hosts Michigan, Wisconsin travels to Ann Arbor
Both play at Purdue
Both host Minneosta
Both host Nebraska
Both host Rutgers

Wisconsin and Michigan State:

Both travel to Penn State
Michigan State hosts Michigan, Wisconsin travels to Ann Arbor
Michigan State hosts Purdue, Wisconsin travels to West Lafayette
Michigan State hosts Northwestern, Wisconsin travels to Evanston
Wisconsin hosts Nebraska, Michigan State travels to Lincoln
Both host Rutgers

Wisconsin and Indiana:

Indiana hosts Penn State, Wisconsin travels to Happy Valley
Both play at Michigan
Indiana hosts Iowa, Wisconsin traveled to Iowa City
Indiana hosts Purdue, Wisconsin travels to West Lafayette
Wisconsin hosts Minnesota, Indiana travels to Minneapolis
Wisconsin hosts Rutgers, Indiana traveled to Picastaway